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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2006 22:55:15 GMT -5
Celtics Nation began the summer of 2005 excited about the prospects for the upcoming season. Many, including myself, thought the Celtics may be looking at 45-48 wins and another Atlantic Division title. After all, the kids would be a year better, Boston had 3 picks in the draft, the Celtics had assets to trade and there was the possibility of making a splash in a relatively shallow free agency market. Unfortunately, internal turmoil coupled with injuries and bad off-season acquisitions, helped bog the Celtics development and win total down.
During the 2004-2005 campaign the Celtics were at or near the top of the league in several offensive categories. In contrast, the 2005-2006 Celtics had a significant drop off in point production, averaging 97.96 points per game (good for 12th in the NBA). Despite the drop off in the volume of points, they were still shooting at a very effective 46.7% from the field (good for 5th in the NBA). There assists numbers dropped slightly to 20.92 assists per game (good for 12th overall). Taking this into consideration it can be said that the Celtics still put up respectable offensive numbers by any standard of measure.
Perhaps a bit more obscure was the Celtics continued effort to develop into an up-tempo offensive basketball team. The best way to measure a team’s fast-break effectiveness is to look at the shot clock. You have to look at a teams offensive production within the first ten seconds of possession in order to determine their up tempo effectiveness. After 10 seconds, a team is in the half court set running offensive schemes or plays relative to defensive match ups. If you break the shot clock up into 4 sections (1-10 seconds, 11-15 seconds, 16-20 seconds, and 21+ seconds) 41% of Celtics shots came in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, shooting a blistering 54% from the field within that time. This is just another positive offensive indicator that the Celtics should have been a playoff caliber team.
Despite the drop in offensive effectiveness by comparison to the Atlantic Division champs of ’04-‘05, the Celtics still possessed a potent offense; potent enough that the Celtics should have been competing for a 5 or 6 seed in the playoffs. So why then didn’t the C’s get to the postseason?
Turnovers were one part of a two pronged assault on the Celtics efforts to turn their season around. The Celtics averaged a mind numbing 16.6 turnovers per game. To put that in perspective the Celtics turned over 17% of their possessions, that’s a turnover nearly once every 5 trips up the floor!!!!!!!!! Only the nasty Knicks averaged more per contest. It doesn’t matter how effective an offense is when it relinquishes the ball every 5 trips up the floor. Boston’s turnover breakdown looks something like this:
187 offensive foul calls
532 bad passes
605 ball handling miscues
33 that can’t be quantified within the above categories
An all but vacant defense is responsible for being the other element that brought the Celtics playoff hopes to an end early in the season. The interior defense was affected by various injuries to Big Al, the slow feet of Raef LaFrentz and Brian Scalabrine, and the complete lack of defensive effort displayed by Mark “Big Baby” Blount. The Celtics interior defensive needs seemed to be partially met by the emergence of young Kendrick Perkins. Perk’s efforts didn’t go unnoticed by the Celtics faithful as he quickly became a fan favorite. Perk has the skill, toughness and desire the Celtics have desperately needed in the post. Unfortunately for Perk he suffered a dislocated shoulder that limited his minutes during the final two months of the season, an injury that required corrective orthopedic surgery.
The perimeter defense, which was a strength of the ‘04-’05 Celtics, was every bit as abysmal as its interior counterpart. Injuries to Tony Allen and Marcus Banks hampered Boston’s ability to play effective perimeter defense. Delonte proved to be a very good individual and team defender, although he did suffer bouts of ineffectiveness in both respects at times. Dan Dickau suffered a ruptured Achilles tendon early on in the season, but he was a horrible defender long before the injury. Orien Green has the tools to be a good defender, but it was too much to hope that he could come in and make a tide turning impact on the perimeter defense.
The win/loss total of this past season is an unreliable means of evaluating how good the Celtics are. The Celtics under achieved, that is undisputed, but in retrospect it shouldn’t have been completely unexpected. Before a trade is made, a free agent is signed or a rookie is drafted I’m genuinely excited about the Celtics in ’06-’07. I have never been this optimistic about a team’s prospects for success after losing 49 games. One thing is for certain, the Celtics will again be relevant in basketball circles while competing for #17 sooner rather than later.
--Fin
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Post by Roadrunner on Jun 3, 2006 10:57:50 GMT -5
Fin, welcome aboard, or to the board.
The 2005 Celtics played like a team that thought it was going to be traded. Though, there were a few exceptions, like West, Perks, etc.
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Post by The Eye of the Q is upon you! on Jun 3, 2006 16:51:57 GMT -5
I hate to say this: The Celtics were terribly outcoached this year.
Also the lack of effort from Mark Blount (attitude) and Al Jefferson (conditioning) really set this team back. They seemed to respond better once Gomes and Perkins worked there way into the rotation. Finally injuries to West, Perkins, and Sczerbiak finished this teams chances for making the playoffs.
The Celtics veteran talent outside of Pierce and RD was very poor going into this season. Coach Doc Rivers has not proven himself to be a good coach. Quite the contrary, he is a proven loser when it comes to the playoffs. I still have question marks for this team even if we get an upgrade at Center (Patrick O'Bryant) or at PG (Rondo, Marcus Williams, or Foye) with our draft pick.
In reality, we have good players at each position but are they projected to be top 5 at their respective positions as their career matures?
West - Solid PG, a top 10 for sure but he may not peak out in the top 5. Tony Allen - Can be a nice 2 guard, Certainly a top 5 talent at his position. Pierce - A top 3 SF already, may even be the best one. Gerald Green - Pratically unlimited upside - definite top 5 material in the future. Jefferson - Good PF skills on the block - should be top 10 at least Perkins - He is a good role player and a hardworker - he'll be a top 10 center. Gomes - Nice bench player, good character and I think a keeper. La Frentz - Blah! Overpaid role player! Does not cause trouble in the clubhouse at least. Sczczerbiak - Peaked out, perhaps but an efficient offensive player who makes others better. Scalabrine - Yuk! Don't need him in the rotation. Maybe we can trade down to get Rondo or O'Bryant and take this pig off our hands. Dickau - designated shooter - not much else - more trade fodder. Orien Greene - Cheap PG insurance - cannot expect him to stick if we draft Rondo or Foye.
In conclusion, I expect an improvement over 33 wins next year, but I cannot sit here and say the Celtics will turn the corner and compete with New Jersey for the Atlantic Division title (Toronto may in fact inherit the 2nd spot with their top draft pick) with Doc Rivers as the coach.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Jun 4, 2006 4:15:52 GMT -5
Terrific piece you wrote up, Fin. Enjoy reading your stuff.
Our offense is going to work itself out. Even when we are struggling to pass the ball crisply, and even when we go through bouts when we aren't sharing the ball effectively, we still have guys who can create points (Pierce, Wally). But you hit it squarely on the head--our turnovers and lack of consistent defense is what killed our season. Too many turnovers and pathetic display of defense.
Last year should have been a better year statistically. But having Jefferson and Allen injured did take away some of our momentum we had coming into the season. We were building ourselves up to be a good looking team this past year. Jefferson and Allen were playing well in the '05 playoffs against Indiana, and they gave us hope that good things were on the rise.
Had they been healthy and had they improved a good margin from the previous year, we could have had a better record.
At the time, I was rather unsettled that we gave up Ricky Davis. He played with energy and grittiness that I thought more players on the team needed to emulate. But I'm convinced now that the trade was the right move because we got rid of the 3 players who were causing the most strife in regards to our team chemistry (Blount, Banks, and Davis). I didn't think Ricky was included among the bad apples, but recently, I've heard that he was a culprit.
Getting Wally in return is huge. I wasn't a fan of his prior to him coming to Boston, but now I think he's a terrific fit on this team. His attitude is encouraging and he does help with keeping the ball moving around the court. And he gives us a big scoring threat who scores in the flow of the offense.
Next year, we should see a marked improvement in our win/loss column, a marked improvement in our offensive efficiency, and an improvement in our defense (crossing finger). Delonte, Tony, Gomes, and Perk will most likely be better players than they were this year (I find it hard not to believe this because they are constantly working hard on their games to improve themselves). Big Al is on a mission to prove that he is not a bust, and he's working his butt off to make sure that he doesn't have another disappointing year. Pierce and Wally will play at a consistently high level of play and Raef will be a solid contributor.
Where I hope we find a big surprise is with Gerald Green and Dwayne Jones. It would be killer if Gerald can be a scorer off the bench (10 ppg) and if DJ can effectively rebound and alter shots as a back up big man. Their production will be huge because we lack any type of contribution off the bench.
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Post by sprash98 on Jun 9, 2006 9:58:07 GMT -5
I laugh at anyone who predicts 42+ wins next season. Face it fellas. WE SUCK! Our talent is bad, our coaching pathetic and our execution, esp on defense, deplorable. WE SUCK! We are a 33 win team. We didnt win three in a row all year. Our coach is THE WORST in the league. Half of our players would have a hard time cracking the rotations of most playoff teams. Our PG does not have a right hand, our newly-acquired SF has bad knees and is a turnstile on D, our 'future' PF is stupid, foul-prone and is out of shape, our perimeter D is so bad Perk has a hard time staying out of foul trouble and we have THE WORST PG rotation in the league. What the hell makes you think we will win 40+?
We will win 35 games next season. Maybe, that will wake Ainge and the owners the !!!GREENIAC!!! up and finally they will can Doc. And as far as us contending in 3 yrs, fahgetboutit. The Mavs, Pistons, Spurs are not going anywhere. The Cavs have Lebron and I dont see any way that this team comes even close to holding the jocks of any of these teams. This franchise is doomed for years to come. We chose to tank in the wrong year. So instead of someone like Chris Paul or Chris Bosh, we will end up with more mediocre players to add to a mediocre team. Hooray!
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Jun 9, 2006 10:52:56 GMT -5
We win 40+ games next year if most of our young players step their games up. The only way we win only 33 games next year is if key players get injured, or if Ainge makes a big trade that alters our nucleus and we have to start over again with the chemistry.
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Post by sprash98 on Jun 9, 2006 10:56:50 GMT -5
We win 40+ games next year if most of our young players step their games up. The only way we win only 33 games next year is if key players get injured, or if Ainge makes a big trade that alters our nucleus and we have to start over again with the chemistry. Derren, I admire your optimism. But I saw NOTHING from this team or the coaching staff this season, to make me believe they will sniff 40 wins next season. Do you know that you are talking about an 8 win improvement? That aint gonna happen. This team just isnt talented enough. We should have tanked the last 2 years. We did not. Ainge's strategy has backfired and it still does not look like he has a plan. First it was Banks and Davis for a fast-breaking team, now its Wally for spot up shooting. What next? And you can bet your farm that there will be a big trade next season. Too many holes, too many question marks and too many ifs. Thats the Boston Celtics for you.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Jun 9, 2006 11:12:43 GMT -5
I disagree. I saw a lot of positives from last year's team that makes me optimistic about the '06 - '07 team. Many of our young talent were developing right before our eyes. Ryan Gomes showed the presence to be a solid role player off the bench. Tony Allen's confidence was soaring once his trusted in his knee, and he was hard to stop (averaged near 18 ppg at one stretch, cutting and penetrating to the basket, and getting to the free throw line). Delonte showed throughout the year that he's a steady PG, and if there was one thing that stood out is the fact that he can shoot the ball. And we need to see him shoot the ball more to open up the court.
Big Al, when he was healthy, started to get into rhythm, but re-injured his ankle again. Had he remained healthy from training camp, he could have made a difference in our win/loss record.
Perkins showed a lot of growth as a defensive specialist. He still has more room to grow, but watching him last year was encouraging.
And we haven't talked about Wally yet. He'll be a big help once he rehabs his knee and gets back to being his normal self.
Our biggest problem was defense. Doc needs to stress that this year or else we'll struggle again. Our offense will continue to improve, just because of the amount of offensive talent we have on the team. But we have the ability to be a solid defensive team as well. We can certainly improve in rebounding when Perk and Big Al get more playing time (as well as Gomes being able to help here).
FL12 stressed the importance of team chemistry, and it is so true. Players who have been playing with each other for a few years are better able to know how to play with one another and trust each other. The majority of this team has now been with each other for about 2 years, and that should pay dividends.
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Jun 9, 2006 12:06:04 GMT -5
I agree with you on every point Derren. There were several factors that combined to make our team seem as though they were worse than they are. First, the injuries. We had major injuries to key players all year long. Second, the trade. It affected playing time for some players before the trade and after the trade we had new players who had to learn the system. Third, we had young players who had to learn the pro game.
Al was only healthy for a 2-3 week period in which he and Perk meshed and showed a lot of potential. This year Al will be using the tighter Karl Malone tape job and Clifford Ray will be showing him how to strengthen his ankles and how to avoid the problem again.
Perk got very little playing time until the Blount trade and was really showing good things on the court when he finally did get to play. His injury derailed his progress for a time but he picked right back up when he was able to play again. Perk's lack of playing time had nothing to do with his abilities or progress but much more to do with showcasing Blount to trade him.
Allen struggled to get over the knee injury the entire first half and wasn't much help. The last part of the season showed us how much he can help us. He will come back this year ready to play and will give us that defensive guard we so much needed last year.
I believe that Gomes lack of playing time was again the result of showcasing Reed for the trade. I can't believe that he didn't play well in practice and so that means that he was being held back so as not to be requested in the trade and to showcase Reed to be traded. In this sense the injuries weren't all bad because Gomes got a chance to start and shine because of them.
West was learning the PG position. It takes a year or two for a player to learn the PG position. Delonte played above and beyond what was expected and that is because he is such a hard worker. I have no doubt that he will come back this season with a right hand and even better than last year. His injury also hampered us at the end of the season.
The trade to get Wally was a good one. But once he came in it would take a bit for him to learn the system. Just as he was starting to learn the plays, he injured his knee so we never really got to see how he could help us. Wally is a very accurate shooter and will spread the floor and give more opportunities for everyone else. I believe that he will be a better defender than he has been given credit for just by seeing how he played last year, even with the injury. He is a tough player and seems to fit right in with the team. But his injury also has a silver lining because Green got a chance to play and show that he is going to be a very special player because Wally went down. I can see Green being a very good bench player for us this year and I think he will surprise people at how good he is.
Pierce was also slowed by the elbow injury. He had his best year as a pro and I believe that next year will be even better with Wally to stretch the defense and be a very efficient second option on the team. The elbow injury clearly hurt him the second half of the year.
Dickau's injury took him out before he had a chance to mesh with the team. He can be a good sub off the bench for his offense if he comes back healthy.
This year we should be healthy and we should come back with chemistry and the kids are all a year older and will be a year better. Delonte will come back with a right hand, Allen will come in and contribute from the start, Perk and Raef will come back with a whole arsenal of new moves and be much better for having worked with Clifford Ray. Doc, realizing that he has to institute a defensive scheme will do so or will not be the coach.
We will have another good PG and another big who will both be able to help.
Sprash... I respectfully disagree with all of your points. The future is bright for this team.
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Post by freshnthehouse on Jun 9, 2006 14:24:25 GMT -5
I'm predicting 41-41. I think another year of maturation for Green, Perk, Al, Tony, and West will lead to 8 more wins.
I know what your saying: "But Mentok, what about trades, or injuries, or the draft pick?" Well rest easy kids. These variables are all included when i read the future. More details will be included in next month's Mentok the Magnificent newsletter.
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Post by eja117 on Jun 9, 2006 14:54:35 GMT -5
I kinda agree with fresh. I think 8 wins can happen. I think 5 or 6 is more likely. I think this year is a really make or break year in the sense that either the team gets close to the playoffs and is fighting for a spot till the last week and misses by like 2 games or we find out that Al isn't as good as we thought, and that the rest of the youngins like GG, OG, Perk, Gomes, and TA don't improve as much as we thought and the draft is a bust. The odds of all that happening is low, but the odds they will all take a step forward is also remote. I think Al will improve which will be big, because it will force Scala and Raef further to the bench. I think GG will improve. TA is 50-50. OG is 50-50. Gomes is 50-50. I just pray Perk plays the whole year healthy. Also it would be good if Wally can be healthy most of the year. The more our young guys play the more likely they will be injured. This is why I really think its really important to draft a big. Even if it's Splitter and we have to wait two years, There HAS to be a backup plan for Al and Perk. They might both get hurt or they might both plateau. Al might turn into a wimp (we KNOW that won't happen to Perk). Gomes is an ok backup plan for Al but Dwayen Jones is not a backup plan for Perk. Either or both of these guys could get hurt again and then we could come to realize that Perk's arm and Al's ankles are the equivalent of Bird's back, or Walton's knees, or Zo's kidney. This is why the Packers tried drafting QBs to backup Brett Farvre. Cause he's too important. This team needs to become a darwinian version of the Patriots. We need to draft good young prospects and plan on telling them to beat someone out or go home or somewhere else.
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Post by BCHISTORIAN on Jun 10, 2006 0:19:29 GMT -5
agree - we need more quality bigs
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Post by Roadrunner on Jun 10, 2006 9:27:33 GMT -5
The biggest difference between this year, and last year will be: no big trades mid-season.
Every year Danny has been the GM, the team has made a huge move which changed the composite of group. We have the players now, where Danny will not need to make any huge trades.
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Post by eja117 on Jun 10, 2006 9:40:47 GMT -5
I think the last trade significantly improved us cause it got rid of two big problems named Blount and Banks and cleared serious salary. If we can do that again involving Raef I don't care when they do it.
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Post by Roadrunner on Jun 10, 2006 22:24:06 GMT -5
Alll the trades made have helped the team in the long-run, but in the short-run, it effects the total amount of wins for the season.
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