Marcus may not become a good 3 pt shooter

[DERRENMATTS]

I hear many fans say that Marcus Smart can improve his 3 pt shooting with more practice, and they hope he'll be like Chauncey Billups some day.

So I looked up Billups' stats and found him to be an accurate shooter from beyond the arc. He was also a fantastic free throw shooter. I wondered if he "learned" how to shoot when he became a professional in the NBA. But looking at his stats at Colorado, in his 2 collegiate seasons, he shot 38% from 3, and 85% from the free throw line. Very similar to his career marks in the NBA -- 38% from 3 and 89% from the line.

Chauncey was already a good shooter, even before becoming an NBA pro.

So I started randomly looking at other players to see if they've improved their shooting after entering the NBA.

-Jason Kidd:
@ CAL, 33% from 3, 67% from FT
As a pro, career stats of 34% from 3, 78% FT. Didn't improve much from beyond the arc, did improve from FT line.

-Jason Williams:
@ Marshall and Florida, 39% from 3, 67% from FT
NBA, 32% from 3, 81% from FT. He had a good 3 pt% in college, but not so good as a pro. But FT definitely improved.

-Isaiah Thomas:
@ WAS 32% from 3, 71% from FT
NBA, 36% from 3, 86% from FT. He did see marked improvements across the board.

-Michael Kidd Gilchrist:
@ UK, 25% from 3, 74% from FT
NBA, 24% from 3, 69% from FT

-Zach Lavine:
@ UCLA, 37% from 3, 69% from FT
As a pro, 37% from 3, 81% from FT

-Chris Pau:l
@ Wake, 47% from 3, 83% from FT (outstanding numbers!!)
NBA, 36% from 3, 86% from FT

-Amtoine Walker:
@ UK, 25% from 3, 66% from FT
NBA, 32% from 3, 63% from FT. He was always bad at shooting!

-Magic Johnson:
@ MSU, no data for 3 pointers, 81% FT
NBA, 30% from 3 and 84% from FT. Magic was always a good FT shooter.

The person who I randomly looked up and found a significant turn around is Kawhi Leonard. @ SDSU, he shot a poor 25% from 3 and a respectable 74% from FT. As a pro he's shooting 39% from 3 and 84% from FT. But the difference between Kawhi and Marcus, IMO, is shooting form. A guy like Kawhi, who had a fluid shot to begin with, needed only to make tweaks to see improvements (which gives me hope for Jaylen Brown, he is very similar to Kawhi the more I think about it). But Smart's shooting form needs lots of work. There's such a big swing from where he drops the ball down and then raises it up above his head. His timing needs to be perfect.

It is not rare, but it is not all that common to see a player shoot poor percentages in college and then make big improvements as a pro.

It seems the rule is if you are a poor shooter in college, you likely will be poor at shooting as a pro (but maybe you can work your way up to a degree of respectability). It is not common to see guys make huge leaps as a pro.

This seems to be especially true for guys who are poor free throw shooters.  If you don't have touch from the FT line, you probably won't have good touch from further out.

If you shoot the free throw at a respectable clip, you may have a shot at improving your 3 point shooting.  But again, I think a lot has to do with the shooting form.  If its out of whack to begin with, you probably won't see marked improvements.

Bottom line is, I wouldn't place money on seeing Marcus improve a whole lot at shooting from deep.  I think between 29% and 31% is where he'll be.

[jmost]

His form is terrible, and for a guy without the dribbling ability to create space for himself, he compounds the issue by jumping toward the basket when he shoots, bringing himself closer to whoever is guarding him, and also making the shot more difficult IMO. Supposedly he is working hard on his shot this summer. If it doesn't look a lot better in October it probably never will.

[oldtimeball]

Why did we draft him? Does he have to have a 3 point shot to succeed?

I think a better question might be whether he is a smart offensive player.. Pun intended..Is he a good point guard? Because a good point guard doesn't need to be offensively great..He needs to make others better.. Can he facilitate a offense.. Run the pick and roll?

I mentioned a comparison to him and Chauncey billups in the context of trading a player to soon..

[FLCeltsFan]

I'm definitely always worried that we are going to trade a player too soon and have that player become a star for someone else. I don't know whether Marcus can improve his shot or not. Maybe he won't become a great 3 point shooter but if he masters the mid range shot and can do everything else, maybe a 3 point shot won't be absolutely necessary.

[DERRENMATTS]

I think that's where the overall problem comes from. Good shooters are usually good from an early age. Bad shooters tend to remain bad, and might show slight improvement.

Like Rondo, for instance.

It is not common to see a bad shooter develop into a good shooter, whether from midrange, 3 pt, or even free throws. I'm sure there are exceptions, but its not generally how it goes, IMO.

Smart doesn't show touch on his shot. His form is mechanical and not compact. Even on his FT's, they lack touch. Guys like this are not natural shooters, and even with lots of practice, which helps develop muscle memory, the touch is still lacking on their shots. So anytime a player has to shoot in a way outside of how they practice shooting, they can't rely on muscle memory, and it just becomes a mechanical shot with no touch.

From my observation, this is the type Marcus is.

[oldtimeball]

Jul 20, 2016 13:15:34 GMT -5 FLCeltsFan said:

I'm definitely always worried that we are going to trade a player too soon and have that player become a star for someone else. I don't know whether Marcus can improve his shot or not. Maybe he won't become a great 3 point shooter but if he masters the mid range shot and can do everything else, maybe a 3 point shot won't be absolutely necessary.

Smart is a good role player? Maybe he develops as a true point. I think expectations were high for him at one time. I don't think he needs a 3 point shot to be better.. But he needs to nail his open jump shots. I remember someone saying of Antone walker... Watch him shoot before a game.. So many clunk shots.. You can work on a jump shot.. But sometimes guys just can't shoot consistently. DJ was the point guard I want. Not a great shooter.. But a great clutch shooter and he hit his open opportunities.

[FLCeltsFan]

I definitely agree about DJ. He was money in clutch situations. Loved that guy! We certainly could use a guy like him.

As for Smart, I'm not 100% sold on him improving his offense because as has been said, his mechanics are poor. If he's really smart and puts in the work, he can get a shooting coach and change his mechanics. But will he put the work in? He may come back with completely different mechanics and shoot the lights out. I guess only time will tell.

[FLCeltsFan]

I couldn't help but notice this article on ESPN that talks about Smart and how he may be poised to make a leap this season.

espn.go.com/blog/boston/celtics/post/_/id/4723613/is-boston-celtics-next-star-already-on-the-roster

Here is a little bit from the article if you don't feel like going to the site.

CARMELO didn't just predict a monster leap for Smart this season; it pegged him a "future All-Star" with a value of $156.5 million over the next five seasons. After Smart produced 2.5 Wins Above Replacement last season, CARMELO projects him to more than double that total this season (5.1) and suggests he'll make a pronounced offensive leap that will raise his on-court value to $26.2 million this season (he'll actually earn just $3.6 million on his rookie-scale deal).

To put Smart's CARMELO projection in perspective, Thomas owned a 7.3 WAR last season and is projected to drop to 4.9 this year. Jae Crowder, maybe Boston's closest thing to an All-Star behind Thomas last season, posted a 6.1 WAR last year and is projected to dip to 4.5. Of players currently on the Celtics' roster for the 2016-17 season, only newcomer Horford (8.9 WAR last season) is projected to have a higher WAR than Smart this year (Horford is projected at 5.7).

CARMELO projects Smart to have the fifth-biggest leap in WAR among all NBA players next year. He trails only Anthony Davis (plus-3.7), Kristaps Porzingis (plus-3.1), Kyrie Irving (plus-2.8), and Andrew Wiggins (plus-2.8).

You can read the rest of the article at the link above.  What  do you guys think about this?  

[oldtimeball]

Speculation. I sure hope its not accurate because it put Isaiah Thomas on the decline as well as crowder. Kind of ambiguous..

[DERRENMATTS]

Yeah, I read that too. But he says players can improve their shooting with dedication and practice. But if that was the case, you'd have more players shooting better than 45% from the field. The gold standard in the NBA back in the 80's and 90's was 50 from the field%. Nowadays, 45% FG% seems to be the mark of a good shooter.

I'll do more digging, but it appears that if you were a bad shooter in college, both in FT and 3pt shooting, there's little chance you will become a good shooter in the NBA.

But it does make a difference if a player has good form on his shot, but his percentages are low in college. These types of players (like Kawhi Leonard), who had fluid shooting forms, but showed inaccuracy, needed to make some tweaks before they unlocked their shooting potential.

I'll give you anther example.

Paul George's rookie season, he shot 30% from 3, and 76% from the line. Not great numbers by any means, and not an indicator of a future superstar. But when you look back at his time as Fresno State (2 years), he shot 39% from 3, and 80% from the line (including 91% his final year). He was a good shooter in college.

So what happened in his rookie season in the NBA? Oh, probably a number of things contributed to his lower percentages. But we know he could really shoot it in college, so the foundation was there to work with.

And sure enough, by George's 2nd year, he was putting up 38% from 3's and 80% from FT.

[FLCeltsFan]

You've got some very fascinating stats Darren. Kind of makes you wonder why, if that holds true for so many players, don't more GM's pay attention to it. Or if it doesn't matter and they look at the whole package and just hope for a miracle. I know Danny looks for scrappy players like Marcus and Jaylen and goes by their work ethic a lot. Maybe their shooting doesn't matter as much. I guess that's why you get a Fab Melo picked before Draymond Green or why Anthony Bennett was taken before Steven Adams etc.

[DERRENMATTS]

I would think for Smart's case, we drafted him because he has an elite skill that readily translates over to the NBA -- his defense. Plus his leadership. And when you look at the options after Marcus, there weren't many studs to choose from anyways.

Now Jaylen, his shot isn't broken, and you can see he does have a nice stroke from the free throw line -- which indicates to me that he may be one of those players who makes significant improvements in his shooting percentages, ala Kawhi Leonard. But we'll see.

[FLCeltsFan]

Wasn't Jaylen one of the players who broke the record shooting 3 pointers in his workout? I remember that a couple of players did and it seems to me that Brown was one of them. If so, then he has been working on his shot and it wouldn't take much for that shot to transfer to games.

[DERRENMATTS]

Yeah, he hit an outstanding number of shots in his workout. Was it 78 out of 100 three's?

Even Danny mentioned that he believes Brown will be a shooter than what we saw at Cal.

[DERRENMATTS]

We think of Avery Bradley as an example of what a non-shooter can become with practice and dedication. But if you look at Avery's lone year at Texas, you'll see that nearly 1/3 of his total shots were 3's (attempted 3 per game) and he connected on 37.5%.

That's darn good for a freshmen!

So its not that Bradley was a poor 3pt shooter coming into the NBA, and with hard work became the 36% 3pt shooter he is today (and improving).

He could already shoot the ball pretty good to begin with.