Post by FLCeltsFan on Oct 19, 2015 12:03:11 GMT -5
Boston Celtics: 2015-16 Forecast
15m - NBA BOSTON CELTICS
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Celtics are good but good enough for the playoffs?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Staff Writer
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East No. 9 | Full List
No. 8: Boston Celtics
Last Season: 40-42
7th place in East; Lost 4-0 to Cleveland in Round 1
The playoff drought lasted all of one season. It took Brad Stevens just two seasons to get the Boston Celtics back into the postseason after the franchise bid goodbye to Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers. Sure, it took a historically weak Eastern Conference and a Rajon Rondo trade to pull it off, but the Celtics finished with a better record than the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets last season. That's a stunning achievement no matter how you couch it.
Can the Celtics build on it? That's a tougher question. The organization certainly beefed up the frontcourt by acquiring David Lee and Amir Johnson, but the chase for a star continues. President of basketball operations Danny Ainge wields a chest of as many as four 2016 first-round picks (though not all four are likely to convey) and attractive contracts to flaunt in a trade. With an overachieving coach leading a boatload of solid players, the Celtics could be a winning, if boring, team. But if a star like DeMarcus Cousins or Kevin Love shakes loose, the Celtics will be ready to pounce just like they did in 2007.
The writing was on the wall that Rajon Rondo might be moved at the deadline, but he didn't even last until Christmas. The longtime C's point guard would be a free agent at the end of the season and the Celtics had just drafted at his position. With Rondo dishing out double-digit assists a night, the Celtics sold high and netted Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson and two picks on Dec. 18. And then the Celtics lost 12 of their next 16 games as the season appeared to spiral down the toilet. At mid-January, the Celtics unloaded another veteran, this time the listless Jeff Green, and sent him to Memphis in a trade that brought back Tayshaun Prince, Austin Rivers and a future first-round pick. The Celtics were officially treading water with a roster chock full of youngsters.
And then the Isaiah Thomas era began. Traded by Phoenix at the February deadline the 5-foot-9 Thomas led the Celtics' resurgence from the bench. The Celtics were looking at a 20-32 record at the time of the trade and promptly went 20-10 the rest of the way. Over the last 20 games of the season, the Celtics were the best team in the Eastern Conference, outscoring opponents by 4.6 points per 100 possessions.
Point Differential In Final 20 Games
TEAM ORTG DRTG PTDIFF
SAS 112.8 99.2 +13.6
GSW 111.5 101.0 +10.5
LAC 110.5 101.9 +8.6
UTA 102.7 97.1 +5.6
BOS 103.1 98.6 +4.6
Per 100 possessions
Though Tyler Zeller and fellow deadline pickup Jonas Jerebko had strong finishes, the story was all Thomas. Playing for his third team in less than 12 months, Thomas torched the opposition, averaging 19.0 points per game from the bench with an electric 57.9 percent true-shooting percentage and 22.3 player efficiency rating. The previous two Celtics to average 19 points and a PER higher than 22? Pierce and some guy named Larry Bird.
With just a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs as late as mid-March, according to SportsClubStats.com tracking, the Celtics poured it on, winning eight of their final nine games to earn the seventh seed in the East and a matchup with, gulp ... the Cleveland Cavaliers, who swept them in four games. Hey, they made the playoffs.
The Celtics have found a rim protector in Amir Johnson. Steve Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images
With about $20 million in cap space and a bevy of future draft picks, the Celtics were tied to virtually every trade rumor, free agent and obscure real estate opportunity as soon as the offseason began. The team kicked things off by drafting R.J. Hunter and Terry Rozier to bolster their backcourt and then went to work on the frontcourt, drafting shot-blocking big Jordan Mickey in the second round.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Haberstroh: 2015-16 Celtics player profiles
Check out our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Celtics.
Beefing up the frontcourt didn't stop there. With Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Zeller already on the roster, Ainge went out and signed Toronto plus-minus darling Amir Johnson to man the middle on a two-year, $24 million contract. Ainge went to work again. He reeled back stretch-four Jerebko on a two-year, $10 million deal. More bigs. In late July, the Celtics sent Gerald Wallace's eight-figure contract and Chris Babb to Golden State in exchange for two-time All-Star David Lee, who spent most of the season sitting on the champs' bench.
All in all, the Celtics added three bigs to compete with Olynyk, Sullinger and Zeller for the starting gig, but none are locks to get the role. That's some serious competition, but not exactly what Celtics fans were hoping for this offseason.
Jae Crowder says winning playoff games is the next step for Boston after being swept by Cleveland last season. Jason Miller/Getty Images
The Celtics didn't make a big splash this offseason, but they kept their core intact, brought in veteran big men Lee and Johnson and delivered to coach Brad Stevens a deep and versatile roster capable of building off last season's second-half surge to the playoffs. Crowder, obtained in last year's Rondo swap and re-signed to a five-year, $35 million contract this summer, said winning playoff games is Boston's primary focus after enduring a first-round sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.
"That's our next goal," said Crowder. "We're taking steps. Of course, we want Banner 18, but, at the same time, we have to win a playoff game first before we get to Banner 18. I think we're moving in the right direction." That's a sentiment echoed by Isaiah Thomas. "[We want] to build on what we did last year," said last season's Sixth Man of the Year runner-up. "For the most part, make the playoffs and then just go from there. We've got a really talented team. Especially in the East, we can make some noise." -- Chris Forsberg
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Marcus Smart, PG: +2.2
Avery Bradley, SG: +1.7
Jae Crowder, SF: +2.2
David Lee, PF: -2.0
Tyler Zeller, C: +0.1
Scouting reports on every player on the Celtics
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
The Celtics scored 41.8 paint points per game (16th) on 54.6 percent shooting (15th). Johnson (60.7 percent from 10 feet and in) provides the inside presence missing for years.
Bradley and Turner? Not so good with the 3s (projected 33.8 percent). They drop a combined 45.4 percent a few steps in.
All About The Space: 21st (400 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver Effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver Effect: Isaiah Thomas (89.2) is Boston's worst defender (-2 defensive RPM) but shoots 35.8 percent from 3. Wash!
The Celtics might be the hardest team to peg in the NBA. On one hand, they have a roster full of valuable role players that any team would envy. On the other, they have no franchise cornerstone. The rosy outlook might suggest they're trying to be the Atlanta Hawks of last season, stunning the NBA with smart, starless basketball. But can you see three All-Stars on this roster? Even Lucky the Leprechaun doesn't see it.
Nonetheless, RPM thinks the world of the Celtics, projecting them to win the No. 2 slot in the East. No, not the 2016 NBA draft. The Eastern Conference standings. With most Eastern powers taking a step back, RPM sees the Celtics taking advantage of the shift and winning 51 games during the regular season with top-10 ranks on both ends of the ball. That's not a total stretch considering they tied for the third-best point differential in the East after the All-Star break.
SCHOENE isn't sold. While Johnson will provide a lift defensively, SCHOENE believes Thomas and Lee will undo any good progress made by the former Toronto big. With a 23rd ranked defense, SCHOENE sees the Celtics taking a step back and falling just short of a .500 record. With Stevens at the helm, the Celtics are like a pro golfer handed a bag full of top-notch irons and no driver. Sure, you can make it work, but how much can you really win that way? We're about to find out if the Celtics are indeed the Baby Hawks like RPM thinks they will be.
15m - NBA BOSTON CELTICS
Play1:04
Celtics are good but good enough for the playoffs?
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Staff Writer
13
Shares
Comment
East No. 9 | Full List
No. 8: Boston Celtics
Last Season: 40-42
7th place in East; Lost 4-0 to Cleveland in Round 1
The playoff drought lasted all of one season. It took Brad Stevens just two seasons to get the Boston Celtics back into the postseason after the franchise bid goodbye to Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Doc Rivers. Sure, it took a historically weak Eastern Conference and a Rajon Rondo trade to pull it off, but the Celtics finished with a better record than the Miami Heat, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets last season. That's a stunning achievement no matter how you couch it.
Can the Celtics build on it? That's a tougher question. The organization certainly beefed up the frontcourt by acquiring David Lee and Amir Johnson, but the chase for a star continues. President of basketball operations Danny Ainge wields a chest of as many as four 2016 first-round picks (though not all four are likely to convey) and attractive contracts to flaunt in a trade. With an overachieving coach leading a boatload of solid players, the Celtics could be a winning, if boring, team. But if a star like DeMarcus Cousins or Kevin Love shakes loose, the Celtics will be ready to pounce just like they did in 2007.
The writing was on the wall that Rajon Rondo might be moved at the deadline, but he didn't even last until Christmas. The longtime C's point guard would be a free agent at the end of the season and the Celtics had just drafted at his position. With Rondo dishing out double-digit assists a night, the Celtics sold high and netted Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson and two picks on Dec. 18. And then the Celtics lost 12 of their next 16 games as the season appeared to spiral down the toilet. At mid-January, the Celtics unloaded another veteran, this time the listless Jeff Green, and sent him to Memphis in a trade that brought back Tayshaun Prince, Austin Rivers and a future first-round pick. The Celtics were officially treading water with a roster chock full of youngsters.
And then the Isaiah Thomas era began. Traded by Phoenix at the February deadline the 5-foot-9 Thomas led the Celtics' resurgence from the bench. The Celtics were looking at a 20-32 record at the time of the trade and promptly went 20-10 the rest of the way. Over the last 20 games of the season, the Celtics were the best team in the Eastern Conference, outscoring opponents by 4.6 points per 100 possessions.
Point Differential In Final 20 Games
TEAM ORTG DRTG PTDIFF
SAS 112.8 99.2 +13.6
GSW 111.5 101.0 +10.5
LAC 110.5 101.9 +8.6
UTA 102.7 97.1 +5.6
BOS 103.1 98.6 +4.6
Per 100 possessions
Though Tyler Zeller and fellow deadline pickup Jonas Jerebko had strong finishes, the story was all Thomas. Playing for his third team in less than 12 months, Thomas torched the opposition, averaging 19.0 points per game from the bench with an electric 57.9 percent true-shooting percentage and 22.3 player efficiency rating. The previous two Celtics to average 19 points and a PER higher than 22? Pierce and some guy named Larry Bird.
With just a 20 percent chance to make the playoffs as late as mid-March, according to SportsClubStats.com tracking, the Celtics poured it on, winning eight of their final nine games to earn the seventh seed in the East and a matchup with, gulp ... the Cleveland Cavaliers, who swept them in four games. Hey, they made the playoffs.
The Celtics have found a rim protector in Amir Johnson. Steve Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images
With about $20 million in cap space and a bevy of future draft picks, the Celtics were tied to virtually every trade rumor, free agent and obscure real estate opportunity as soon as the offseason began. The team kicked things off by drafting R.J. Hunter and Terry Rozier to bolster their backcourt and then went to work on the frontcourt, drafting shot-blocking big Jordan Mickey in the second round.
EDITOR'S PICKS
Haberstroh: 2015-16 Celtics player profiles
Check out our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Celtics.
Beefing up the frontcourt didn't stop there. With Kelly Olynyk, Jared Sullinger and Zeller already on the roster, Ainge went out and signed Toronto plus-minus darling Amir Johnson to man the middle on a two-year, $24 million contract. Ainge went to work again. He reeled back stretch-four Jerebko on a two-year, $10 million deal. More bigs. In late July, the Celtics sent Gerald Wallace's eight-figure contract and Chris Babb to Golden State in exchange for two-time All-Star David Lee, who spent most of the season sitting on the champs' bench.
All in all, the Celtics added three bigs to compete with Olynyk, Sullinger and Zeller for the starting gig, but none are locks to get the role. That's some serious competition, but not exactly what Celtics fans were hoping for this offseason.
Jae Crowder says winning playoff games is the next step for Boston after being swept by Cleveland last season. Jason Miller/Getty Images
The Celtics didn't make a big splash this offseason, but they kept their core intact, brought in veteran big men Lee and Johnson and delivered to coach Brad Stevens a deep and versatile roster capable of building off last season's second-half surge to the playoffs. Crowder, obtained in last year's Rondo swap and re-signed to a five-year, $35 million contract this summer, said winning playoff games is Boston's primary focus after enduring a first-round sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers last season.
"That's our next goal," said Crowder. "We're taking steps. Of course, we want Banner 18, but, at the same time, we have to win a playoff game first before we get to Banner 18. I think we're moving in the right direction." That's a sentiment echoed by Isaiah Thomas. "[We want] to build on what we did last year," said last season's Sixth Man of the Year runner-up. "For the most part, make the playoffs and then just go from there. We've got a really talented team. Especially in the East, we can make some noise." -- Chris Forsberg
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Marcus Smart, PG: +2.2
Avery Bradley, SG: +1.7
Jae Crowder, SF: +2.2
David Lee, PF: -2.0
Tyler Zeller, C: +0.1
Scouting reports on every player on the Celtics
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
The Celtics scored 41.8 paint points per game (16th) on 54.6 percent shooting (15th). Johnson (60.7 percent from 10 feet and in) provides the inside presence missing for years.
Bradley and Turner? Not so good with the 3s (projected 33.8 percent). They drop a combined 45.4 percent a few steps in.
All About The Space: 21st (400 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver Effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver Effect: Isaiah Thomas (89.2) is Boston's worst defender (-2 defensive RPM) but shoots 35.8 percent from 3. Wash!
The Celtics might be the hardest team to peg in the NBA. On one hand, they have a roster full of valuable role players that any team would envy. On the other, they have no franchise cornerstone. The rosy outlook might suggest they're trying to be the Atlanta Hawks of last season, stunning the NBA with smart, starless basketball. But can you see three All-Stars on this roster? Even Lucky the Leprechaun doesn't see it.
Nonetheless, RPM thinks the world of the Celtics, projecting them to win the No. 2 slot in the East. No, not the 2016 NBA draft. The Eastern Conference standings. With most Eastern powers taking a step back, RPM sees the Celtics taking advantage of the shift and winning 51 games during the regular season with top-10 ranks on both ends of the ball. That's not a total stretch considering they tied for the third-best point differential in the East after the All-Star break.
SCHOENE isn't sold. While Johnson will provide a lift defensively, SCHOENE believes Thomas and Lee will undo any good progress made by the former Toronto big. With a 23rd ranked defense, SCHOENE sees the Celtics taking a step back and falling just short of a .500 record. With Stevens at the helm, the Celtics are like a pro golfer handed a bag full of top-notch irons and no driver. Sure, you can make it work, but how much can you really win that way? We're about to find out if the Celtics are indeed the Baby Hawks like RPM thinks they will be.
