Post by FLCeltsFan on Aug 3, 2015 20:48:34 GMT -5
NBAFrontOffice: How do the Celtics go from good to great?
In the latest installment of the [HASH]NBAFrontOffice series, Tom Penn (playing the role of general manager), Amin Elhassan (scouting director) and Kevin Pelton (analytics director) discuss the Boston Celtics and if a trade or free agency is their best chance at adding a superstar.
Want in on the conversation or have a question for one of the guys? Use [HASH]NBAFrontOffice.
Tom Penn: I think you always start with, "Do we have greatness, and if we don't have it, how are we going to get it?" So the first fundamental question is: Do we think that any players on the Celtics' roster qualify as pure, NBA-level greatness?
Amin Elhassan: Nah.
Penn: We all agree that the answer is no, right?
Kevin Pelton: Marcus Smart is the one guy on the roster with a chance to potentially be that, but he's got to improve dramatically offensively to get there.
Penn: Right, because the exciting thing for them is that they've got all kinds of assets, flexibility and tools that they can trade and use and maneuver around, but I would agree that Smart is the one young player they have who could, theoretically, if everything goes perfectly, develop into an All-Star-level player. If that's all they have then they need to stay realistic in terms of knowing how far they still have to go. So, let's recap all of the assets they have to get to that greatness.
Elhassan: I guess the most relevant pieces would be the first-round picks that they have coming via the Brooklyn Nets -- a 2016 unprotected first rounder, a 2017 pick swap, and a 2018 unprotected first-rounder. Beyond that, they've got a lot of other picks, but with various levels of protection. There's a 2016 first-rounder from Dallas that's top-seven protected for the next five years, a 2016 first-rounder from Minnesota that's top-12 protected, and if that doesn't get conveyed it just turns into second-round picks, and a 2018 first-round pick from Memphis that is top-12 protected in 2018, top-eight in 2019, top-six in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
With many of those picks, who knows where they'll end up -- we're talking about four or five years down the line -- but at this point I would imagine that the two that have the best chance of being anything would be the picks from Brooklyn, and then to some extent I would say the protected 2016 first-round pick coming from Dallas, too. There's a good chance the Mavericks miss the playoffs this upcoming season and that pick could end up anywhere in that range from No. 8 to No. 14. It gives you a chance, at least, to do something.
Pelton: I think the best thing that happened to them this offseason was the Deron Williams buyout and then him going to Dallas, because that potentially helps both of those picks. First off, you've got a Brooklyn team that has the league's worst point guard rotation at this point with Jarrett Jack as the starter, Shane Larkin as the backup and Ryan Boatright is probably going to make the roster as the third point guard. So if something goes wrong with the Nets in the frontcourt, this season could get away from them pretty quickly and that could be a pick that enters into the lottery and finishes in the top five or so.
At the same time, Dallas, instead of sitting this season out and trying to get good again next year via free agency, it looks like they're going to be competitive in the Western Conference, but probably not a playoff team, so it looks like you will get that pick somewhere in the 10-14 range.
Trade or free agency?
Penn: OK, great, we're all talking about draft picks, but that's just uncertain hope for the future. I think what's interesting for them is that they have so many picks that they could package them together for a big, bold move in combination with their cap room. So let's go over the cap situation, both now and next summer.
Elhassan: With the cap expected to be somewhere around $90 million for the 2016-17 season, they currently have $22.5 million in guaranteed money available next summer. Now, it goes way above that if you consider Amir Johnson's $12 million salary that is completely non-guaranteed up until July 3 next summer, and the same goes for Jonas Jerebko's $5 million salary. And then you've got team options that what we expect to be picked up for their guys on rookie contracts, like Smart, James Young, and Kelly Olynyk. I think that's the crux of their cap flexibility. The cap is going up, but Jerebko and Johnson also represent $17 million in waivable or tradable salary.
Pelton: And that's why those contracts are structured the way they are. I think the Johnson and Jerebko contracts are really trade chips during the 2016 draft window. You come in with possibly three first-round picks plus those non-guaranteed contracts, you can easily build up enough salary to get a DeMarcus Cousins if he becomes available -- or that kind of player. That's clearly what they're thinking with those guys. And if you don't find anything, then you do have the option of just waiting to maximize cap space, although Johnson at $12 million is probably not a terrible number for them.
Penn: How much space do they have this year?
Pelton: They're over now. They went over after the David Lee trade.
Elhassan: And next summer -- given the guaranteed guys plus the guys we're expecting them to pick up team options on -- they're looking at about $31.2 million in quasi-guaranteed money on the books next summer, but that's not including cap holds for guys like Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones, who are all going to be restricted free agents, and I imagine the team would want to keep a qualifying offer out there to keep those guys on the books. And then, as we said, there's the $17 million in non-guaranteed salary between Johnson and Jerebko.
Penn: Right, so they kind of have what they have for this season unless they do a trade. Lee is an interesting trade chip in combination with the draft picks as well. You'd be trading a guy on an expiring contract who is a good guy and will come and play his tail off wherever he goes because he's in part playing for his next contract. I think they can grow organically with what they have and wait until next summer, or they can use Lee as a principal trade chip with the draft picks to do an opportunistic deal to get the guy they want. But those are going to be harder to do because there's no financial pressure on teams anymore with the cap going way up. In the old days, there would be tax pressure that would cause teams to dump talents. Now the only reason a team is going to dump talent is because it's not working out.
Elhassan: The one thing I'll say is this: Sometimes people look at cap space and say, "Well who can they go out and sign?" I'm look at it as who can they go out and trade for. Let's say Kevin Love is having another lackluster season with the Cavaliers -- it's not what they envisioned out of him as far as the star-talent that he has. That's a team that, if I'm the Celtics, I'm calling up every week if things aren't going as smoothly as anticipated. The Celtics can offer a number of pieces that can probably approximate what Love is giving Cleveland if he's under-performing, and at the same time Boston can get a player who can be a star and a focal-point.
Pelton: To me, the big thing with Boston is that they're obviously in this state of limbo, waiting for a trade to acquire a star player, but the upside is that they're not in a position where they aren't competitive while they're waiting for that to happen. This was one of the top five or six teams in the Eastern Conference after they added Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline last season, and I think they have the potential to be in a similar spot to that this season in the East with Johnson filling one of their biggest needs with his rim protection. They're going to be in the mix to potentially even win a playoff series in the East.
Penn: That's a great point, because we always talk about making changes, but what they've done is assembled a very competitive and attractive team -- assuming they win. I mean, it's the best talent Brad Stevens has had. You've got to remember that next summer's free-agent competition is going to be off the hook because everybody's going to have room, so free agents are going to very much value the quality of the team. So the Celtics may get their greatness with the right free agent who wants to join the competent and competitive core that's going to be there.
Pelton: And I think they're going to count on Stevens as a big selling point. This came up last week on the Lowe Post Podcast when Zach Lowe was talking to Jared Dudley and he said guys around the league are buzzing about how good of a coach Stevens is. Dudley went out of his way to say how good he is and that if the money were similar guys might want to play in Boston instead of somewhere else.
Elhassan: To me, free agency is a nice plan, but absent of, like, an agent telling me that he's bringing a star here next summer, I'm keeping my pulse on every single flash point around the league, whether it's Love in Cleveland, or Cousins in Sacramento, or Eric Bledsoe in Phoenix. It happens. It's cyclical in this league. Someone is not happy with where they are, or the team is not happy. One man's junk is another man's treasure. You've got to identify those situations, keep a pulse and keep a running dialogue with those organizations to package those assets that we talked about earlier.
Pelton: Besides those guys, no one else really comes to mind for me in terms of possibly disgruntled players who could become available.
Elhassan: It may not be real right now, but give it some time and it'll be real. That's the league, dude. One day everybody's happy and the next day they're saying they've got to get out of here.
Pelton: I guess Denver with Danilo Gallinari is one situation that they'll be sure to monitor, although he's still kind of a B-level player like they already have. The guy I bet they're targeting in free agency is Al Horford.
Elhassan: That's a good name.
Pelton: He fills their need for a rim protector and can play with almost any of their big men because of his versatility. Johnson does some similar things, he's just not nearly as talented. Horford is kind of a rich-man's version of Johnson. He'd be by far their best big man.
Elhassan: Absolutely. He's a culture builder, and while that hasn't been as much of a need over there -- they have a good core as far as character guys and good locker room guys -- but someone like Horford brings a certain credibility to the table, not only from a talent standpoint but also the leadership aspect in the locker room. And as Kevin said, his versatility as a player comes in handy. He can play the five, he can play the four, he's a very good midrange shooter, he's OK out to the 3-point corners, he rebounds and he defends multiple positions. He'd definitely move the culture forward, but I think you're still left wanting something else to go along with him. He's not that guy who can just come in and you'll say, "Alright, we've got him, now let's go win our championship."
Pelton: I think one thing maybe you're hoping for -- since you're still going to have so much cap space with all of those rookie contracts and flexibility -- is that if you get one of those guys it makes it easier to go out the next summer and get the next guy.
Elhassan: Or even that same summer. We saw that with Phoenix this offseason. They went out and got Tyson Chandler and their plan was that it would give them added credibility in the free-agent market to go after LaMarcus Aldridge. That didn't work out because they were going up against a much mightier foe then your standard free-agent rival as far as the San Antonio Spurs go, but it's a decent strategy. If you're trying to prove to somebody that you're a really good team and they should want to be a part of it because it's special, well, having a guy like Horford really bolsters that claim, as opposed to saying that you'll be good in a couple of years.
The question is if Horford would be willing to go there and leave the Hawks, the only team he's known. They've had a considerable amount of success in the last couple of seasons. They're expected to be at least one of the top four teams in the East this season. Would Horford want to move on?
Pelton: And that's where I think -- hot take alert -- the Celtics might be better than the Hawks this year.
Elhassan: Oh! Sound the alarm!
Finding a star in 2016
Penn: This is still all just so speculative. It's sort of silly to think about a free agent that far out and how he fits and if you can build around him. That's the challenge, and the new normal is exactly what Amin was saying. In free agency, you're going to be competing against everyone the next two seasons because virtually everyone will have cap room. The Spurs should have it again. Golden State will have cap room. The rich are going to have a chance to get richer if they want to. If things go well, the Celtics are in good shape to add a stud, because they have a good coach and they're on the up-swing and they have a good core, but things have got to go well for that to happen. They are still a ways away from the finished product.
They're going to have to be patiently aggressive. They're just going to have to wait until the wheels fall off the cart and a real talented player is available, and then the combination they'll have to offer will be expiring contracts and future draft picks if they want to get a Cousins-type talent who is under contract.
Elhassan: Here's what's going on. No fewer than 15 teams are going to have $20 million or more in cap space next summer. That's the projection. You've got a salary cap going up to around $89 million. Every team needs to spend at least 90 percent of that to get to the floor. So 90 percent of $89 million is $80 million. And as I said, you've got several teams that are going to be far, far below that. A lot of guys are going to get paid by default, like, "I like you and if I give you this number right now, you're coming right now." Why haggle and mess around when you have to reach this $80 million number anyway?
The problem is that for a team like the Celtics, if we're talking about the blue-chip talent, the highest level guys, their money is their money. So it's not like you can overpay a max guy; he's getting the max. Now, we can argue whether Horford is a max guy. We can argue whether Mike Conley, who was in the same draft class, is a max guy. You can argue those to me, but I guess what I'm saying is that there's a level at which if you're that good, if you're that much of a game-changer, the opportunity to overpay for your services isn't really going to be available to many of these teams.
Pelton: Right, if you can't compete on price then you're going to have to compete on other factors like the ability to win, coach, or the environment, things like that. So the better the Celtics do this season then the better their chances are in free agency. It's kind of a Matthew effect -- to those that have more, more will be given.
Penn: I believe that money is the primary factor for these free agents because their opportunities to ring the bell are so few and far between. They probably only get two or three of those per career, and so what's interesting and impossible to know is how the years on these contracts will begin to matter a lot more, because we're embarking on a new era of significant free agency every season. And everybody's going to have similar money to offer, so it's going to come down to how many years you offer.
Elhassan: And remember, like I said earlier, the Celtics can't just outbid everybody for a guy like Horford. They can't outbid the Hawks, for one, but more importantly, there are so many other teams who are going to have that kind of money. If anyone else is as serious about Horford as they are, then there's no outbidding, because everybody has money to spend. And that's why the trick is you do one of two things. You find a free agent who really isn't highly valued. You've got to do what Orlando did in 2000 and say, "Well, even though everybody thinks Tracy McGrady is a sidekick, we think he's a star and we're going to give him the max." You've got to make that kind of plunge.
Or, you eliminate the guesswork and you go out and trade for someone who's already under contract. You know he's good. You don't have to, in theory at least, negotiate against 14 other suitors. You just basically have to put together a nice enough package, and if you're the Celtics you do have enough pieces to make a competitive play for one of these guys like Cousins or Love, compared to the other teams that are sort of doing the same kind of strategy. But to go into free agency thinking, "OK, Horford, that's our guy," unless you have an under-the-table deal with his agent -- which isn't rare, it's happened before -- there are no guarantees there. You don't know how many other teams out there are going to have that same approach.
Pelton: Every max guy is going to have multiple max offers. That's just the way it's going to be.
In the latest installment of the [HASH]NBAFrontOffice series, Tom Penn (playing the role of general manager), Amin Elhassan (scouting director) and Kevin Pelton (analytics director) discuss the Boston Celtics and if a trade or free agency is their best chance at adding a superstar.
Want in on the conversation or have a question for one of the guys? Use [HASH]NBAFrontOffice.
Tom Penn: I think you always start with, "Do we have greatness, and if we don't have it, how are we going to get it?" So the first fundamental question is: Do we think that any players on the Celtics' roster qualify as pure, NBA-level greatness?
Amin Elhassan: Nah.
Penn: We all agree that the answer is no, right?
Kevin Pelton: Marcus Smart is the one guy on the roster with a chance to potentially be that, but he's got to improve dramatically offensively to get there.
Penn: Right, because the exciting thing for them is that they've got all kinds of assets, flexibility and tools that they can trade and use and maneuver around, but I would agree that Smart is the one young player they have who could, theoretically, if everything goes perfectly, develop into an All-Star-level player. If that's all they have then they need to stay realistic in terms of knowing how far they still have to go. So, let's recap all of the assets they have to get to that greatness.
Elhassan: I guess the most relevant pieces would be the first-round picks that they have coming via the Brooklyn Nets -- a 2016 unprotected first rounder, a 2017 pick swap, and a 2018 unprotected first-rounder. Beyond that, they've got a lot of other picks, but with various levels of protection. There's a 2016 first-rounder from Dallas that's top-seven protected for the next five years, a 2016 first-rounder from Minnesota that's top-12 protected, and if that doesn't get conveyed it just turns into second-round picks, and a 2018 first-round pick from Memphis that is top-12 protected in 2018, top-eight in 2019, top-six in 2020 and unprotected in 2021.
With many of those picks, who knows where they'll end up -- we're talking about four or five years down the line -- but at this point I would imagine that the two that have the best chance of being anything would be the picks from Brooklyn, and then to some extent I would say the protected 2016 first-round pick coming from Dallas, too. There's a good chance the Mavericks miss the playoffs this upcoming season and that pick could end up anywhere in that range from No. 8 to No. 14. It gives you a chance, at least, to do something.
Pelton: I think the best thing that happened to them this offseason was the Deron Williams buyout and then him going to Dallas, because that potentially helps both of those picks. First off, you've got a Brooklyn team that has the league's worst point guard rotation at this point with Jarrett Jack as the starter, Shane Larkin as the backup and Ryan Boatright is probably going to make the roster as the third point guard. So if something goes wrong with the Nets in the frontcourt, this season could get away from them pretty quickly and that could be a pick that enters into the lottery and finishes in the top five or so.
At the same time, Dallas, instead of sitting this season out and trying to get good again next year via free agency, it looks like they're going to be competitive in the Western Conference, but probably not a playoff team, so it looks like you will get that pick somewhere in the 10-14 range.
Trade or free agency?
Penn: OK, great, we're all talking about draft picks, but that's just uncertain hope for the future. I think what's interesting for them is that they have so many picks that they could package them together for a big, bold move in combination with their cap room. So let's go over the cap situation, both now and next summer.
Elhassan: With the cap expected to be somewhere around $90 million for the 2016-17 season, they currently have $22.5 million in guaranteed money available next summer. Now, it goes way above that if you consider Amir Johnson's $12 million salary that is completely non-guaranteed up until July 3 next summer, and the same goes for Jonas Jerebko's $5 million salary. And then you've got team options that what we expect to be picked up for their guys on rookie contracts, like Smart, James Young, and Kelly Olynyk. I think that's the crux of their cap flexibility. The cap is going up, but Jerebko and Johnson also represent $17 million in waivable or tradable salary.
Pelton: And that's why those contracts are structured the way they are. I think the Johnson and Jerebko contracts are really trade chips during the 2016 draft window. You come in with possibly three first-round picks plus those non-guaranteed contracts, you can easily build up enough salary to get a DeMarcus Cousins if he becomes available -- or that kind of player. That's clearly what they're thinking with those guys. And if you don't find anything, then you do have the option of just waiting to maximize cap space, although Johnson at $12 million is probably not a terrible number for them.
Penn: How much space do they have this year?
Pelton: They're over now. They went over after the David Lee trade.
Elhassan: And next summer -- given the guaranteed guys plus the guys we're expecting them to pick up team options on -- they're looking at about $31.2 million in quasi-guaranteed money on the books next summer, but that's not including cap holds for guys like Tyler Zeller, Jared Sullinger and Perry Jones, who are all going to be restricted free agents, and I imagine the team would want to keep a qualifying offer out there to keep those guys on the books. And then, as we said, there's the $17 million in non-guaranteed salary between Johnson and Jerebko.
Penn: Right, so they kind of have what they have for this season unless they do a trade. Lee is an interesting trade chip in combination with the draft picks as well. You'd be trading a guy on an expiring contract who is a good guy and will come and play his tail off wherever he goes because he's in part playing for his next contract. I think they can grow organically with what they have and wait until next summer, or they can use Lee as a principal trade chip with the draft picks to do an opportunistic deal to get the guy they want. But those are going to be harder to do because there's no financial pressure on teams anymore with the cap going way up. In the old days, there would be tax pressure that would cause teams to dump talents. Now the only reason a team is going to dump talent is because it's not working out.
Elhassan: The one thing I'll say is this: Sometimes people look at cap space and say, "Well who can they go out and sign?" I'm look at it as who can they go out and trade for. Let's say Kevin Love is having another lackluster season with the Cavaliers -- it's not what they envisioned out of him as far as the star-talent that he has. That's a team that, if I'm the Celtics, I'm calling up every week if things aren't going as smoothly as anticipated. The Celtics can offer a number of pieces that can probably approximate what Love is giving Cleveland if he's under-performing, and at the same time Boston can get a player who can be a star and a focal-point.
Pelton: To me, the big thing with Boston is that they're obviously in this state of limbo, waiting for a trade to acquire a star player, but the upside is that they're not in a position where they aren't competitive while they're waiting for that to happen. This was one of the top five or six teams in the Eastern Conference after they added Isaiah Thomas at the trade deadline last season, and I think they have the potential to be in a similar spot to that this season in the East with Johnson filling one of their biggest needs with his rim protection. They're going to be in the mix to potentially even win a playoff series in the East.
Penn: That's a great point, because we always talk about making changes, but what they've done is assembled a very competitive and attractive team -- assuming they win. I mean, it's the best talent Brad Stevens has had. You've got to remember that next summer's free-agent competition is going to be off the hook because everybody's going to have room, so free agents are going to very much value the quality of the team. So the Celtics may get their greatness with the right free agent who wants to join the competent and competitive core that's going to be there.
Pelton: And I think they're going to count on Stevens as a big selling point. This came up last week on the Lowe Post Podcast when Zach Lowe was talking to Jared Dudley and he said guys around the league are buzzing about how good of a coach Stevens is. Dudley went out of his way to say how good he is and that if the money were similar guys might want to play in Boston instead of somewhere else.
Elhassan: To me, free agency is a nice plan, but absent of, like, an agent telling me that he's bringing a star here next summer, I'm keeping my pulse on every single flash point around the league, whether it's Love in Cleveland, or Cousins in Sacramento, or Eric Bledsoe in Phoenix. It happens. It's cyclical in this league. Someone is not happy with where they are, or the team is not happy. One man's junk is another man's treasure. You've got to identify those situations, keep a pulse and keep a running dialogue with those organizations to package those assets that we talked about earlier.
Pelton: Besides those guys, no one else really comes to mind for me in terms of possibly disgruntled players who could become available.
Elhassan: It may not be real right now, but give it some time and it'll be real. That's the league, dude. One day everybody's happy and the next day they're saying they've got to get out of here.
Pelton: I guess Denver with Danilo Gallinari is one situation that they'll be sure to monitor, although he's still kind of a B-level player like they already have. The guy I bet they're targeting in free agency is Al Horford.
Elhassan: That's a good name.
Pelton: He fills their need for a rim protector and can play with almost any of their big men because of his versatility. Johnson does some similar things, he's just not nearly as talented. Horford is kind of a rich-man's version of Johnson. He'd be by far their best big man.
Elhassan: Absolutely. He's a culture builder, and while that hasn't been as much of a need over there -- they have a good core as far as character guys and good locker room guys -- but someone like Horford brings a certain credibility to the table, not only from a talent standpoint but also the leadership aspect in the locker room. And as Kevin said, his versatility as a player comes in handy. He can play the five, he can play the four, he's a very good midrange shooter, he's OK out to the 3-point corners, he rebounds and he defends multiple positions. He'd definitely move the culture forward, but I think you're still left wanting something else to go along with him. He's not that guy who can just come in and you'll say, "Alright, we've got him, now let's go win our championship."
Pelton: I think one thing maybe you're hoping for -- since you're still going to have so much cap space with all of those rookie contracts and flexibility -- is that if you get one of those guys it makes it easier to go out the next summer and get the next guy.
Elhassan: Or even that same summer. We saw that with Phoenix this offseason. They went out and got Tyson Chandler and their plan was that it would give them added credibility in the free-agent market to go after LaMarcus Aldridge. That didn't work out because they were going up against a much mightier foe then your standard free-agent rival as far as the San Antonio Spurs go, but it's a decent strategy. If you're trying to prove to somebody that you're a really good team and they should want to be a part of it because it's special, well, having a guy like Horford really bolsters that claim, as opposed to saying that you'll be good in a couple of years.
The question is if Horford would be willing to go there and leave the Hawks, the only team he's known. They've had a considerable amount of success in the last couple of seasons. They're expected to be at least one of the top four teams in the East this season. Would Horford want to move on?
Pelton: And that's where I think -- hot take alert -- the Celtics might be better than the Hawks this year.
Elhassan: Oh! Sound the alarm!
Finding a star in 2016
Penn: This is still all just so speculative. It's sort of silly to think about a free agent that far out and how he fits and if you can build around him. That's the challenge, and the new normal is exactly what Amin was saying. In free agency, you're going to be competing against everyone the next two seasons because virtually everyone will have cap room. The Spurs should have it again. Golden State will have cap room. The rich are going to have a chance to get richer if they want to. If things go well, the Celtics are in good shape to add a stud, because they have a good coach and they're on the up-swing and they have a good core, but things have got to go well for that to happen. They are still a ways away from the finished product.
They're going to have to be patiently aggressive. They're just going to have to wait until the wheels fall off the cart and a real talented player is available, and then the combination they'll have to offer will be expiring contracts and future draft picks if they want to get a Cousins-type talent who is under contract.
Elhassan: Here's what's going on. No fewer than 15 teams are going to have $20 million or more in cap space next summer. That's the projection. You've got a salary cap going up to around $89 million. Every team needs to spend at least 90 percent of that to get to the floor. So 90 percent of $89 million is $80 million. And as I said, you've got several teams that are going to be far, far below that. A lot of guys are going to get paid by default, like, "I like you and if I give you this number right now, you're coming right now." Why haggle and mess around when you have to reach this $80 million number anyway?
The problem is that for a team like the Celtics, if we're talking about the blue-chip talent, the highest level guys, their money is their money. So it's not like you can overpay a max guy; he's getting the max. Now, we can argue whether Horford is a max guy. We can argue whether Mike Conley, who was in the same draft class, is a max guy. You can argue those to me, but I guess what I'm saying is that there's a level at which if you're that good, if you're that much of a game-changer, the opportunity to overpay for your services isn't really going to be available to many of these teams.
Pelton: Right, if you can't compete on price then you're going to have to compete on other factors like the ability to win, coach, or the environment, things like that. So the better the Celtics do this season then the better their chances are in free agency. It's kind of a Matthew effect -- to those that have more, more will be given.
Penn: I believe that money is the primary factor for these free agents because their opportunities to ring the bell are so few and far between. They probably only get two or three of those per career, and so what's interesting and impossible to know is how the years on these contracts will begin to matter a lot more, because we're embarking on a new era of significant free agency every season. And everybody's going to have similar money to offer, so it's going to come down to how many years you offer.
Elhassan: And remember, like I said earlier, the Celtics can't just outbid everybody for a guy like Horford. They can't outbid the Hawks, for one, but more importantly, there are so many other teams who are going to have that kind of money. If anyone else is as serious about Horford as they are, then there's no outbidding, because everybody has money to spend. And that's why the trick is you do one of two things. You find a free agent who really isn't highly valued. You've got to do what Orlando did in 2000 and say, "Well, even though everybody thinks Tracy McGrady is a sidekick, we think he's a star and we're going to give him the max." You've got to make that kind of plunge.
Or, you eliminate the guesswork and you go out and trade for someone who's already under contract. You know he's good. You don't have to, in theory at least, negotiate against 14 other suitors. You just basically have to put together a nice enough package, and if you're the Celtics you do have enough pieces to make a competitive play for one of these guys like Cousins or Love, compared to the other teams that are sort of doing the same kind of strategy. But to go into free agency thinking, "OK, Horford, that's our guy," unless you have an under-the-table deal with his agent -- which isn't rare, it's happened before -- there are no guarantees there. You don't know how many other teams out there are going to have that same approach.
Pelton: Every max guy is going to have multiple max offers. That's just the way it's going to be.
