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Post by eja117 on May 5, 2014 9:53:04 GMT -5
This is just all hypothetical philosophical bs, but here's my question....generally we would say a center is usually more valuable than a power forward all other things equal. Like I think I would say Duncan has more value than Dirk. I think I would say D Howard has more value than say LaMarcus Alridge.
Good centers are hard to come by.
If you have a pf like Sully certainly you'd rather get a center who is about as good as Sully, rather than another pf about as good as Sully. But....it has to be as good as Sully. Not KO. Centers as good as Sully are hard to find.
The reason I'm thinking of this is that we are thinking a lot of the difference between Vonleh and Randle.
I definitely think playing two pfs negates some of the value of having a good pf. Say on a scale of one to ten Sully is a 9. Say Randle would be a 9 at pf. But Vonleh would be an 8.5 at center. Like Randle is a guy that would go to four all star games at pf, but Vonleh would go to two at center. I think that might make Vonleh more valuable, especially if you can pay him less. I think a lot of teams would rather have that.
Dirk and Alridge are tens. I think you'd rather have a ten at pf, than a 8.5 at center. But I don't think that's the option here.
I think in this draft I see two potential 10s, a couple nines, and a couple 8s.
I see Wiggins and Parker as 10s
I see Randle as a 9
I see Embiid, Vonleh, Exum, and Smart as 8 plus.
I see Gordon as a possible 9. To me he's sorta the feast famine guy who could be a 7 or a 9. I see McDermott as the lower feast famine guy at like 7-8.5 whereas someone like James Young is a straight up 8 or a 8.2.
I think McDermott has the issue where he is a senior and guys like James Young are freshmen. McDermott is for a team that wants to win now. To me he is the KO of the draft. A really good backup. But in this draft I'm looking for starters or 6th men of the year. If a guy doesn't beat out Avery Bradley I can live with it as long as he is making a strong push for quality backup minutes at pg or sf.
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Post by eja117 on May 5, 2014 9:54:34 GMT -5
This is another point I want to make. Jonas Valanciunas. He is nowhere near as good as Paul Milsap. There's a good chance he will never be as good as that. But I'd rather have him. Forgiving the age difference I'd still rather have him. Certainly I'd rather have him and a Milsap, rather than two Milsaps. And I'd rather have him and Milsap rather than two Jonas Vs.
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Post by Roadrunner on May 5, 2014 18:37:59 GMT -5
Eja, great analysis. A few comments:
>I think centers are more valued than power forwards because of supply & demand; example - rate the centers 1-32, then the power forwards 1-32; you would see a huge drop off between the last all-star center, and the last all-star forward
>Can Vonleh actually play the 5 in the NBA, or will he be a 4 playing the 5, and undersized?
>Embiid would be rated higher, because he is a 5
>Gordon I would agree w/ has the biggest fluctuation, because not only is one of the youngest players in the draft, there are a lot of similar type of players in the NBA just like him
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Post by eja117 on May 5, 2014 20:08:53 GMT -5
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Post by eja117 on May 5, 2014 20:16:54 GMT -5
This is very interesting....this makes a compelling case that even if Vonleh is a pf....he might make a better pf than Randle...because...as it turns out...Randle has very short arms. There are some short armed guys in the NBA that are very good, such as Blake G and Kevin L. However Blake is far more athletic, Kevin is a far better shooter, and both are taller. Ainge has his work cut out for him. Elton Brand is a similar comparison to Randle. Having both him and Sully together is a very good frontcourt. But not that great. Not in the NBA. Maybe this is why Sully is trying 3 pointers. If he can be the next Kevin Love that changes things big time. If he can do that in a year it makes the difference between him making 9 mill a year and making 15. www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/1/2/5258332/julius-randle-nba-draft-prospect-2013 |
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Post by eja117 on May 5, 2014 20:47:18 GMT -5
After some draftexpress video I've switched to the Vonleh camp anyway. I just don't think Vonleh will be the next Ekpe Udoh or Bismack Biyombo.
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Post by nateval on May 5, 2014 21:23:53 GMT -5
So your saying you like Vonleh EJ? He is listed at 6'10" but Im not sure he is that tall, he's still only 18 he turns 19 8/24 so he could still be growing? He's pretty thick, Sully and Vonleh would be an interesting front court. Both excellent rebounds both can bang and have potential with their 3 point shot. The combine is going to be fun to watch this year on TV. I'm starting to convince myself that there could be 5 really good players that I would like to draft. No particular order Exum, Vonleh, Parker, Embiid, Wiggins are all guys I would be really excited for. Vonleh is a local kid so I'm sure the Celtics have taken a god look at him and know a lot of people around him. They said he is a good kid and hard worker.
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Post by Roadrunner on May 5, 2014 21:48:15 GMT -5
Eja, good read. No surprise Rondo rebounds extremely well for a PG. Big hands, large wing span.
Vonleh, I was very impressed w/, after seeing his scouting report on draftexpress.com.
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Post by nateval on May 5, 2014 21:58:49 GMT -5
My dream scenario is trading Rondo for a top 5 pick with Orlando, Sacramento or the Lakers. Wiggins, Vonleh and Ennis would work for me! Starting 5 of
PG Ennis
SG Wiggins
SF Green
PF Sully
C. Vonleh
KO and possibly Bradly off the bench or some kind of combination. That would be a fun young team I would sign off on. Future cap space coming up in the next few seasons and plenty of future draft picks
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Post by DERRENMATTS on May 6, 2014 2:27:09 GMT -5
Eja, enjoyed reading your post. Good thoughts on lots of things.
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Post by eja117 on May 6, 2014 9:02:33 GMT -5
The NBA draft combine in a few weeks will start to answer some questions...but...I caution thee. KO had some of the shortest arms and had a low vertical jump of only 29.5 inches. Cody Zeller had like 37.5 and Mason Plumlee had 36.5. Not sure it matters
Cody Zeller was about an inch taller than Vonleh but had a wingspan about 6 inches lower. I'll take the wingspan in that case.
I don't think for one second that the measurements will really determine who the better player is. By the measurements KO is the worst player. But they will help determine who could play center more than who.
Vonleh won't exactly be the only diaper dandy running around out there with no clue next year. Nerlens Noel is going to be in an interesting spot. He's about 20 pounds lighter than the lightest starting center in the league (who tends to be Larry Sanders, who arguably proved in a Shaqless league you don't necessarily have to weigh 270 to be a center). John Henson also puts the skin in skinny (although he's more of a pf. But are you telling me he couldn't give you minutes at center in this league? He's always outsized anyway.)
Vonleh appears to be the better shooter as well. Whoever we get doesn't need to be a scorer right away. KO wasn't a big scorer, but he was always a threat and that's all you need as long as the rebounding and defense is there.
Somebody has to get the rebounds that Jeff Green is totally incapable of getting.
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Post by derrenattheoffice on May 6, 2014 11:30:53 GMT -5
Eja, you are hitting the bulls eye with these posts! What's gotten into you? Hehehe
Its not that some of these players have short arms (T-Rex, as commonly referred to). Its just not as long as you'd like. What this means is they will, at times, have to adjust the way they try to score on a taller and longer guy.
The thing about Julius Randle is he has great technique on his pump fakes, and once his man is in the air, he knows how to change the angle of his shot so that his defender is left guessing where he will shoot it from.
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Post by Roadrunner on May 6, 2014 18:51:14 GMT -5
My dream scenario is trading Rondo for a top 5 pick with Orlando, Sacramento or the Lakers. Wiggins, Vonleh and Ennis would work for me! Starting 5 of PG Ennis SG Wiggins SF Green PF Sully C. Vonleh KO and possibly Bradly off the bench or some kind of combination. That would be a fun young team I would sign off on. Future cap space coming up in the next few seasons and plenty of future draft picks The CBA works against teams building through the draft, because you can not sign everyone to max contracts and have to make decisions that are not always basketball related. Example - OKC; Presti built a strong team through the draft; he nailed 3 lottery picks in a row, and drafted Ibaka in between; OKC owners forced his hand, and he had to trade Harden, because KD and Westbrook were signed on near Derrick Rose rule contracts, and Ibaka got paid handsomely. |
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