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Post by eja117 on Dec 8, 2013 15:08:15 GMT -5
Let's name em....the ones there was universal agreement about how great they'd be
Greg Oden
Yao
Darko
Jay Williams
Royce White
Chris Mihm
Raef LaFrentz
Kwame Brown
Eddy Curry
Nickoloz Tskitishvili
Shaun Livingston
Sebastian Telfair
Marvin Williams
Andrea Bargnani
Adam Morrison
Mike Beasley
Jimmer
Austin Rivers
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Dec 8, 2013 20:32:24 GMT -5
Not sure what you mean by "universal agreement". I didn't believe most of those guys would be great.
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Post by eja117 on Dec 8, 2013 22:59:17 GMT -5
There was no way any of these guys were getting outside the top ten picks with the exception of Royce and Telfair who actually did. But both those guys were expected to do impressive things in the NBA. I would confess probably to more than half of them.
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Post by jrmzt on Dec 8, 2013 23:03:23 GMT -5
I thought Yao would be very good. He did dominate early in his career. Injuries killed his career. He was very slow.. Too unathletic to be great but skilled enough to be very good.
I didnt think much of Oden.
I did like Beasley coming out of college just because he dominated the college ranks but bad work ethic and never seeking to improve upon his talents led to his downfall. Beasley did have real potential. Not great but on par with guys like Aldridge.
The rest...didnt really think they'd succeed to the extent I'd ever call them greats.
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Post by eja117 on Dec 8, 2013 23:09:18 GMT -5
I will give Jay Williams, Shaun Livingston, and Adam Morrison an injury excuse. Oden too in the sense that nobody thought his knees would turn into dust like that. But generally every single player was expected to be a long time starter, if not, and occasional all star.
Also note who I did not mention. There are many players that were picked high that I wouldn't say there was universal agreement on that they would be very good. They were good prospects. I didn't include Darius Miles or Marcus Fizer or Stromile Swift or Robert Swift or Tractor Traylor or Mike Bibby or Kandi. But these guys were considered players that would be very good.
When I say "great" I don't mean Hall of Fame great.
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Post by eja117 on Dec 8, 2013 23:13:40 GMT -5
But if you look at where these guys were picked a lot of them were picked one or two. The last two were ten I think. Other than the ones I mentioned before Mihm was the only one outside the top 5. These guys were picked high for a reason. Take Darko for example. I thought the #2 pick that year should be Carmelo. But if Melo had been picked 2 there is no way he was getting past 3 or 4. That wasn't just some scouting mistake the Pistons made.
Now Shawn Bradley....picked #2.....now THAT was a scouting mistake. I don't think tons of teams in the league really wanted him that bad. Anthony Bennet. Scouting mistake. Oladipo? Not a scouting mistake. Ben McLemore? Not a scouting mistake. Nor Cody Zeller.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Dec 9, 2013 0:42:22 GMT -5
I'm not sure what the scouts and GM's were thinking, but I did not consider a lot of those guys potentially great.
The ones who I did, but were busts were:
Darko. I confess, I thought he had the size and skills to be a force.
Eddie Curry. Same as Darko. Curry just didn't have the drive.
Michael Beasley. Enigma talent, just immature.
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Post by eja117 on Dec 9, 2013 16:12:50 GMT -5
My point is that it is not uncommon to have players picked high in the draft that there is near universal agreement that they will be very good and then they still bust. I've heard people say "Well after you tank you have to pick the right player", but sometimes that's impossible because the right player still busts. To me the best example would be Greg Oden. There wasn't a single team in the league that wouldn't have picked him #1. Yao and Jay Williams. Those guys were either going 1,2 or 2,1. Beasley. Top 2 pick. The teams that picked "wrong" didn't pick wrong at all. The players just busted.
If people think Dante Exum or Joel Embiid is a can't miss guy they are out of their minds. Or they could pick Marcus Smart who could just pull a Chauncey Billups and develop into a great player....after yeeeeaaarrrss of mediocre ball.
Wiggins could easily be the next Beasley.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Dec 9, 2013 22:29:23 GMT -5
Yes, I see your point. At the end of the day, every draftee is a gamble. You never know if they'll get injured somehow.
There are red flags that warn you of potential danger. Royce White's psychological problem was screaming a red flag. In hindsight, Greg Oden's knees were red flags.
Sometimes you come across a big time talent that makes you take that chance in spite of the red flags. Had Oden's knees held up, I have little doubt that he'd be the top defensive Center right now, maybe averaging 13 boards and 3+ blocks per game.
Jay Williams, before his bike accident, was Kyrie Irving before Kyrie was Kyrie.
But at the same time, red flags are warnings, but don't guarantee the player will fail. So far, Jared Sullinger's red flag hasn't burned us.
In this draft, there are players who have less yellow flags than others (I said yellow because they aren't red flags, which are glaring problems). Embiid and Wiggins have yellow flags but have huge upsides too. But due to their upside, teams will take a chance on them. At this moment, I think Wiggins has more of a yellow glad than Embiid.
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Post by freshnthehouse on Dec 10, 2013 0:29:08 GMT -5
Let's name em....the ones there was universal agreement about how great they'd be Greg Oden Yao Darko Jay Williams Royce White Chris Mihm Raef LaFrentz Kwame Brown Eddy Curry Nickoloz Tskitishvili Shaun Livingston Sebastian Telfair Marvin Williams Andrea Bargnani Adam Morrison Mike Beasley Jimmer Austin Rivers Yao and Oden are the only guys on that list that were consensus can't miss franchise players. Guys like Mihm and Jimmer were never considered sure things. They were late lotto picks in bad drafts. Morrison was somewhat the same. There were a lot of questions about his athleticism. Jay Williams was a def bust. Even before the injury he didn't look like an all-star. He could've grown into the role a la Chauncey but I that is a leap IMO. Beasley was always known as a head case, but even so, I think almost every scout figured he'd at least be a starter in the NBA. He's probably the biggest non-injury bust we've had lately. Raef was what he was. I know a lot of scouts thought it was madness to take him ahead of Vince and Jamison, but Denver wanted a big. I'd say he was about as good as most scouts thought he'd be. Above average big man in his (brief) prime. Curry, Brown, Livingston, Telfair, Williams, and Rivers were all HS or freshman that had tons of upside but came with tons of risk. There was plenty of risk associated with all of these guys. Royce Williams was a red flag factory. Too short, mental health issues, too heavy, criminal history. Far from can't miss. Skiti and Bargnani were both big, athletic Euros that were full of the P-word but had plenty of questions. Skiti especially. Guy never had much of history in the Euro leagues. His agent deserves and award for convincing Kiki to spend a #5 overall pick on him. Bargs was something of a surprise #1 pick. A lot of people thought LaMarcus or that kid from LSU would go #1. It was a lot like this draft, were there was no player that seemed worthy of a #1 pick. Darko was the alpha version of these guys. Crazy athletic, big as a house. But again, what had he proven? At the time many GMs thought it was worth the gamble, but he was hardly a can't miss prospect. |
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Post by Roadrunner on Dec 11, 2013 19:20:40 GMT -5
Some players that come to my mind:
>Darko
>Bargnani
>Marcus Fizer
>Beasley
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