Post by FLCeltsFan on May 30, 2013 14:42:50 GMT -5
Welcome to the Insider edition of 5-on-5! This weekly panel is dedicated solely to debating the 2013 NBA draft. This week our experts -- Chad Ford, Kevin Pelton, Fran Fraschilla, Dave Telep and Amin Elhassan -- tackle player development issues from the draft.
1. Which player is the most NBA-ready?
Chad Ford: Anthony Bennett. NBA body? Check. NBA athleticism? Check. Advanced offensive skills? Check. I'm not sure there is another player in the draft who can check all three boxes at the age of 20.
Anthony Bennett
Bob Stanton/USA TODAY SportsBennett's size and skills are ready to step into the NBA immediately.
Kevin Pelton: Otto Porter. Not only was the Big East Player of the Year one of the most productive players in college hoops last season, but his versatile skill set should enable him to slide easily into a smaller role right away.
Fran Fraschilla: Trey Burke. He is not the best player in this draft, but he will be selected by a bad team and will be forced to play major minutes as a rookie. He'll likely be a focal point of his new team. But his offensive skill set, screen-and-roll IQ and NBA rules regarding contact out top will give him an instant opportunity to flourish.
Amin Elhassan: Otto Porter. His feel for the game and all-around skill level will get him on the floor, but it's his willingness to do the little things that don't necessarily show up in the box score that will keep him there. Porter's not star caliber, but he's the type of player who can impact wins and losses in a major way. And early.
Dave Telep: Victor Oladipo. Among the top-end players, he has put in as much work and improved his own game as much as anyone. Mature and ready to play with skill and effort on both ends, Oladipo owns the shortest learning curve. Bottom line: He's trustworthy.
2. Which player is the biggest project?
Ford: Nerlens Noel. He's rehabbing from ACL surgery, needs to add 30 pounds of muscle and has no offensive game to speak of. That's the definition of a project.
Pelton: Alex Len. There's no questioning Len's potential, but there's also no question that we've yet to see him consistently contribute at a high level. It will be up to whatever team takes Len in the lottery to develop those skills.
Rudy Gobert
Gaizka Iroz/AFP/Getty ImagesGobert needs heavy work on skills and physical development.
Fraschilla: Steven Adams. While Adams wowed some people at the recent NBA combine with his athleticism, his overall game is going to be a work in progress for a while. His inexperience and lack of feel for the game will take a while for him to overcome, but athletic 7-foot players don't fall out of trees. With proper development, he could end up being a space-eater and rim protector like the San Antonio Spurs' Tiago Splitter.
Elhassan: Rudy Gobert. He has almost all the physical gifts you would want in a big, but unlike fellow Frenchmen Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, and Ronny Turiaf, Gobert is not high on feel and will very much be a work in progress on both ends of the court. He'll have to get strong enough to hold his own on the glass and in the post defensively before he'll get floor time.
Telep: In the truest sense of the word, it's Grant Jerrett. He's 19, started occasionally at Arizona but can shoot the ball, is a character guy and has legit height. He's physically weak yet owns a measure of skill. He requires time and development.
3. Which player could scouts be underestimating (a la Andre Drummond)?
Ford: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The lack of a supporting cast forced Caldwell-Pope to do too much at Georgia, and his shooting percentage reflects it. But he is a terrific shooter with a pretty high basketball IQ.
Pelton: Nerlens Noel. Noel's body needs work -- especially after ACL surgery -- but I think it's easy to underestimate how effective he can be right away if healthy. In every category save foul rate, Noel's defensive statistics were better than Kentucky predecessor Anthony Davis.
Cody Zeller
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesTeams that dismiss Zeller's skills do so at their own peril.
Fraschilla: Alex Len. Len will be a lottery pick, but there is a lot of room for improvement. He will be an upper-echelon starting NBA center. The former gymnast is 7-1, weighs 250 pounds and won't turn 20 until mid-June. Sidelined through the summer, the blessing for Len is that he won't have the pressure of being the No. 1 pick.
Elhassan: Cody Zeller. I alluded to this last week, but he is 6-11, runs the floor well and is one of the most ready-to-contribute prospects, yet somehow his draft stock keeps falling. Zeller isn't a franchise player, but he can be a big-time contributor as a center with feel.
Telep: Cody Zeller. There's this image of what he should have been. When he didn't look like the No. 1 pick, his skills got picked apart. Andre Drummond underachieved at UConn -- Zeller was a victim of standout play raising the bar too high.
4. Which player could be the biggest overachiever (a la Jimmy Butler)?
Ford: Butler was barely a first-rounder. I could see Mike Muscala being that guy. High PER, very skilled, great size. Had he thrived at Duke instead of Bucknell, he'd be much higher.
Mike Muscala
Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesMuscala's motor and scoring could help him win over teams.
Pelton: Tony Snell. Teams are looking for 3D role players like Butler -- wings capable of matching up with high scorers and making open 3s. Snell might be the best bet in this year's class if he embraces the challenge of using his defensive tools.
Fraschilla: Jackie Carmichael. The 6-9, 240-pound power forward with a soft shooting touch reminds me of past second-round selections like Carl Landry, DeJuan Blair and Paul Millsap. You won't get anything flashy out of Carmichael, but you will get a lot of toughness and grit. Every NBA coach I know values role players like that.
Elhassan: Tony Snell. Most of the country didn't get to see him at New Mexico, but Snell brings great length and defensive potential to the table, along with terrific perimeter shooting. He also played some point guard in prep school, so he's a guy with a lot of upside down the line beyond being a versatile wing defender who can space.
Telep: Lorenzo Brown. Through coaching changes and lack of cohesion on his team, Brown kept his own game together. He's 6-4, can handle the ball and athletically, he'll fit right in. Reasonable expectations should allow for the classic undersell/overdeliver presentation.
5. Which player has the most upside but requires the most polish?
Ford: Tony Mitchell. Great physical profile, rarest rebounder, horrible situation the past few years. Could be much better than where he was drafted.
Pelton: Grant Jerrett. The Arizona forward averaged just 17.8 minutes per game before unexpectedly jumping to the pros, so he's not ready now. In time, Jerrett could develop into a stretch 4 with the athleticism to help on defense, too.
Grant Jerrett
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesJerrett has a lot of upside, but will need just as much polish.
Fraschilla: Lucas Nogueira. The 7-0 Brazilian has a 7-5 wingspan, runs likes he's in a 400-meter race and is an elite shot-blocker. There's recent rapid improvement from "BeBe" this season in the world's second-best basketball league -- the ACB in Spain -- even if his offensive game is remedial at best. The best way to put it is if Nerlens Noel is the No. 1 pick, then Nogueira is an absolute steal if he is selected by a team with a pick between Nos. 20 and 30.
Elhassan: Steven Adams. He comes from an athletic background (his sister is an Olympic gold medalist in the shot put and one of his brothers played pro ball with Pitt coach Jamie Dixon), and he's lived a tough life. His basketball IQ is underdeveloped, but he's got a chance to be something special if it all comes together.
Telep: Steven Adams. Nerlens Noel once said Adams was the toughest guy he guarded. Adams never unpacked his bags at Pitt, and his game was more down than up. He's physically on the high end. Way more prospect than player, his game required more reps and seasoning.
1. Which player is the most NBA-ready?
Chad Ford: Anthony Bennett. NBA body? Check. NBA athleticism? Check. Advanced offensive skills? Check. I'm not sure there is another player in the draft who can check all three boxes at the age of 20.
Anthony Bennett
Bob Stanton/USA TODAY SportsBennett's size and skills are ready to step into the NBA immediately.
Kevin Pelton: Otto Porter. Not only was the Big East Player of the Year one of the most productive players in college hoops last season, but his versatile skill set should enable him to slide easily into a smaller role right away.
Fran Fraschilla: Trey Burke. He is not the best player in this draft, but he will be selected by a bad team and will be forced to play major minutes as a rookie. He'll likely be a focal point of his new team. But his offensive skill set, screen-and-roll IQ and NBA rules regarding contact out top will give him an instant opportunity to flourish.
Amin Elhassan: Otto Porter. His feel for the game and all-around skill level will get him on the floor, but it's his willingness to do the little things that don't necessarily show up in the box score that will keep him there. Porter's not star caliber, but he's the type of player who can impact wins and losses in a major way. And early.
Dave Telep: Victor Oladipo. Among the top-end players, he has put in as much work and improved his own game as much as anyone. Mature and ready to play with skill and effort on both ends, Oladipo owns the shortest learning curve. Bottom line: He's trustworthy.
2. Which player is the biggest project?
Ford: Nerlens Noel. He's rehabbing from ACL surgery, needs to add 30 pounds of muscle and has no offensive game to speak of. That's the definition of a project.
Pelton: Alex Len. There's no questioning Len's potential, but there's also no question that we've yet to see him consistently contribute at a high level. It will be up to whatever team takes Len in the lottery to develop those skills.
Rudy Gobert
Gaizka Iroz/AFP/Getty ImagesGobert needs heavy work on skills and physical development.
Fraschilla: Steven Adams. While Adams wowed some people at the recent NBA combine with his athleticism, his overall game is going to be a work in progress for a while. His inexperience and lack of feel for the game will take a while for him to overcome, but athletic 7-foot players don't fall out of trees. With proper development, he could end up being a space-eater and rim protector like the San Antonio Spurs' Tiago Splitter.
Elhassan: Rudy Gobert. He has almost all the physical gifts you would want in a big, but unlike fellow Frenchmen Nicolas Batum, Boris Diaw, and Ronny Turiaf, Gobert is not high on feel and will very much be a work in progress on both ends of the court. He'll have to get strong enough to hold his own on the glass and in the post defensively before he'll get floor time.
Telep: In the truest sense of the word, it's Grant Jerrett. He's 19, started occasionally at Arizona but can shoot the ball, is a character guy and has legit height. He's physically weak yet owns a measure of skill. He requires time and development.
3. Which player could scouts be underestimating (a la Andre Drummond)?
Ford: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. The lack of a supporting cast forced Caldwell-Pope to do too much at Georgia, and his shooting percentage reflects it. But he is a terrific shooter with a pretty high basketball IQ.
Pelton: Nerlens Noel. Noel's body needs work -- especially after ACL surgery -- but I think it's easy to underestimate how effective he can be right away if healthy. In every category save foul rate, Noel's defensive statistics were better than Kentucky predecessor Anthony Davis.
Cody Zeller
Joe Robbins/Getty ImagesTeams that dismiss Zeller's skills do so at their own peril.
Fraschilla: Alex Len. Len will be a lottery pick, but there is a lot of room for improvement. He will be an upper-echelon starting NBA center. The former gymnast is 7-1, weighs 250 pounds and won't turn 20 until mid-June. Sidelined through the summer, the blessing for Len is that he won't have the pressure of being the No. 1 pick.
Elhassan: Cody Zeller. I alluded to this last week, but he is 6-11, runs the floor well and is one of the most ready-to-contribute prospects, yet somehow his draft stock keeps falling. Zeller isn't a franchise player, but he can be a big-time contributor as a center with feel.
Telep: Cody Zeller. There's this image of what he should have been. When he didn't look like the No. 1 pick, his skills got picked apart. Andre Drummond underachieved at UConn -- Zeller was a victim of standout play raising the bar too high.
4. Which player could be the biggest overachiever (a la Jimmy Butler)?
Ford: Butler was barely a first-rounder. I could see Mike Muscala being that guy. High PER, very skilled, great size. Had he thrived at Duke instead of Bucknell, he'd be much higher.
Mike Muscala
Michael Hickey/Getty ImagesMuscala's motor and scoring could help him win over teams.
Pelton: Tony Snell. Teams are looking for 3D role players like Butler -- wings capable of matching up with high scorers and making open 3s. Snell might be the best bet in this year's class if he embraces the challenge of using his defensive tools.
Fraschilla: Jackie Carmichael. The 6-9, 240-pound power forward with a soft shooting touch reminds me of past second-round selections like Carl Landry, DeJuan Blair and Paul Millsap. You won't get anything flashy out of Carmichael, but you will get a lot of toughness and grit. Every NBA coach I know values role players like that.
Elhassan: Tony Snell. Most of the country didn't get to see him at New Mexico, but Snell brings great length and defensive potential to the table, along with terrific perimeter shooting. He also played some point guard in prep school, so he's a guy with a lot of upside down the line beyond being a versatile wing defender who can space.
Telep: Lorenzo Brown. Through coaching changes and lack of cohesion on his team, Brown kept his own game together. He's 6-4, can handle the ball and athletically, he'll fit right in. Reasonable expectations should allow for the classic undersell/overdeliver presentation.
5. Which player has the most upside but requires the most polish?
Ford: Tony Mitchell. Great physical profile, rarest rebounder, horrible situation the past few years. Could be much better than where he was drafted.
Pelton: Grant Jerrett. The Arizona forward averaged just 17.8 minutes per game before unexpectedly jumping to the pros, so he's not ready now. In time, Jerrett could develop into a stretch 4 with the athleticism to help on defense, too.
Grant Jerrett
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesJerrett has a lot of upside, but will need just as much polish.
Fraschilla: Lucas Nogueira. The 7-0 Brazilian has a 7-5 wingspan, runs likes he's in a 400-meter race and is an elite shot-blocker. There's recent rapid improvement from "BeBe" this season in the world's second-best basketball league -- the ACB in Spain -- even if his offensive game is remedial at best. The best way to put it is if Nerlens Noel is the No. 1 pick, then Nogueira is an absolute steal if he is selected by a team with a pick between Nos. 20 and 30.
Elhassan: Steven Adams. He comes from an athletic background (his sister is an Olympic gold medalist in the shot put and one of his brothers played pro ball with Pitt coach Jamie Dixon), and he's lived a tough life. His basketball IQ is underdeveloped, but he's got a chance to be something special if it all comes together.
Telep: Steven Adams. Nerlens Noel once said Adams was the toughest guy he guarded. Adams never unpacked his bags at Pitt, and his game was more down than up. He's physically on the high end. Way more prospect than player, his game required more reps and seasoning.
