Post by FLCeltsFan on Oct 23, 2012 19:41:30 GMT -5
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Which teams are the most talented?
Using #NBArank, we measure the 'true talent' of every team in every division
Updated: October 23, 2012, 2:42 PM ET
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
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KGAP Photo/Elise AmendolHow does Kevin Garnett and the Celtics' "talent" measure up to the rest of their division?
Yesterday, I took a look at the amount of inherent talent on the rosters of each past NBA champion, comparing them to the talent that the Miami Heat were theoretically working with when they won it all last season. But now it's time to turn our attention to the upcoming 2012-13 season, applying the same general idea to determine just how much raw talent is on hand for each squad this year.
When looking at historical rosters, we needed to use Win Shares to gauge how talented each team was in each season, but for current teams we can get a more accurate view of their aggregate ability by using ESPN's #NBArank poll data, which employed the wisdom of crowds (a surprisingly informative method of information-gathering) and therefore can account for variables that sometimes trip up purely mathematical systems, including predictions regarding the performances of rookies.
What follows is a round-up of how each division looks "on paper." The player ratings were determined by NBArank -- with some educated guesses for players who weren't included on the ballot -- and a team's rating is simply a weighted average of its players' ratings, where starters are given more weight than backups, who in turn are given more weight than 11th/12th men. Note as well that "starters" mean players receiving starter-level minutes, not necessarily the five players who are on the floor for the tip-off every game (for instance, James Harden is listed over Thabo Sefolosha in OKC).
So just who has the most "talented" roster in each division?
Eastern Conference
Atlantic "talent"
It's not exactly a surprise that the Boston Celtics are the division's best team on paper; after all, that's been the case every year since 2007-08. But it might be shocking to see the Brooklyn Nets edge out the New York Knicks for second place in pure talent. The Nets' offseason aim was to add as much talent as possible, and it's tough to argue that they didn't accomplish that goal, especially when you see their roster on paper.
However, Brooklyn is overrated here because their defense is likely to be below-average, while the Knicks' D should be strong again. The Philadelphia 76ers are another team whose talent deficiencies should masked by a tough defense, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them ahead of Brooklyn as well when the dust clears. The talent ratings don't lie when it comes to the Toronto Raptors, though -- while they should be improved and could possibly make a playoff run, it's unlikely they escape the Atlantic basement in 2012-13.
Central "Talent"
Chicago Bulls Rtg. Indiana Pacers Rtg. Mil. Bucks Rtg. Detroit Pistons Rtg. Cle. Cavaliers Rtg.
Derrick Rose 9.02 George Hill 5.71 Brandon Jennings 6.32 Brandon Knight 4.58 Kyrie Irving 7.83
Richard Hamilton 4.5 Paul George 6 Monta Ellis 6.74 Rodney Stuckey 5.4 C.J. Miles 3.78
Luol Deng 7.06 Danny Granger 7.02 Mike Dunleavy 4.65 Tayshaun Prince 4.85 Alonzo Gee 3.58
Carlos Boozer 6.18 David West 6.42 Ersan Ilyasova 6.11 Jonas Jerebko 4.28 Tristan Thompson 4.36
Joakim Noah 7.17 Roy Hibbert 7.19 Samuel Dalembert 4.94 Greg Monroe 6.66 Anderson Varejao 6.09
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Taj Gibson 5.84 D.J. Augustin 4.84 Luc Mbah a Moute 4.81 Corey Maggette 4.12 Omri Casspi 4.25
Kirk Hinrich 4.49 Tyler Hansbrough 4.59 Drew Gooden 4.19 Jason Maxiell 3.88 Daniel Gibson 3.71
Marco Belinelli 4.07 Gerald Green 3.82 Ekpe Udoh 4.06 Will Bynum 3.85 Dion Waiters 3.39
Nate Robinson 3.54 Ian Mahinmi 3.76 Beno Udrih 4.05 Austin Daye 3.85 Tyler Zeller 3.32
Nazr Mohammed 3.29 Sam Young 3.55 Joel Przybilla 3.56 Charlie Villanueva 3.62 Jon Leuer 2.83
Vladimir Radmanovic 3.03 Lance Stephenson 2.52 Marquis Daniels 3.4 Andre Drummond 3.54 Luke Harangody 2.65
Marquis Teague 2.86 Sundiata Gaines 2.52 John Henson 3.38 Terrence Williams 2.82 Samardo Samuels 2.61
Team Rtg. 5.77 Team Rtg. 5.51 Team Rtg. 5.11 Team Rtg. 4.64 Team Rtg. 4.48
The talent ratings have this division pretty well pegged, although the Chicago Bulls might find themselves closer to the pack with Derrick Rose sidelined for more than half the season (in addition to an offseason that saw their highly effective bench raided in free agency). Still, the smart money says that Chicago retains the division, with the Indiana Pacers not far behind and the Milwaukee Bucks further back, scrambling for a playoff berth.
One interesting note -- the talent ratings see the Detroit Pistons coming out ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers; while Detroit finished ahead of Cleveland a year ago, Basketball Prospectus' SCHOENE projections call for the Cavs to improve enough offensively to leapfrog the Pistons in 2013. Then again, it probably shouldn't surprise anyone that a team with Corey Maggette and Charlie Villanueva on the roster looks better on paper than in reality.
Southeast "Talent"
Miami Heat Rtg. Atlanta Hawks Rtg. Washington Wizards Rtg. Orlando Magic Rtg. Charlotte Bobcats Rtg.
Mario Chalmers 5.39 Jeff Teague 5.26 John Wall 6.54 Jameer Nelson 5.41 Ramon Sessions 4.84
Dwyane Wade 8.77 Louis Williams 5.69 Bradley Beal 4.61 Arron Afflalo 5.89 Ben Gordon 4.8
LeBron James 9.99 Kyle Korver 4.5 Trevor Ariza 4.88 Hedo Turkoglu 4.42 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 5.03
Shane Battier 5.3 Josh Smith 7.55 Nene Hilario 6.58 Al Harrington 4.87 Bismack Biyombo 4.11
Chris Bosh 8.04 Al Horford 7.56 Emeka Okafor 5.45 Glen Davis 4.9 Brendan Haywood 3.66
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Ray Allen 6.3 Devin Harris 5.29 Jordan Crawford 4.14 J.J. Redick 5.19 Gerald Henderson 4.52
Udonis Haslem 5.02 Anthony Morrow 4.38 Jan Vesely 3.61 Gustavo Ayon 4.19 Kemba Walker 4.36
Joel Anthony 4.25 Zaza Pachulia 4.08 Trevor Booker 3.53 Quentin Richardson 3.69 Tyrus Thomas 3.73
Mike Miller 3.98 Anthony Tolliver 3.41 Kevin Seraphin 3.51 Nikola Vucevic 3.5 Reggie Williams 3.5
James Jones 3.74 Ivan Johnson 3.24 Martell Webster 3.4 Josh McRoberts 3.28 Byron Mullens 3.18
Norris Cole 3.71 DeShawn Stevenson 3.16 Chris Singleton 2.85 Christian Eyenga 2.5 Jeff Taylor 2.45
Rashard Lewis 3.71 Damion James 2.25 Jannero Pargo 2.68 Armon Johnson 2.49 DeSagana Diop 2.25
Team Rtg. 6.4 Team Rtg. 5.28 Team Rtg. 4.83 Team Rtg. 4.6 Team Rtg. 4.17
According to the talent ratings, this is the most lopsided division race in the league. In one corner, you've got the Miami Heat, defending NBA champs and the most talented team in the league. In the other corner... everybody else. That storyline might prove misleading, however, in the case of the Atlanta Hawks, who appeared to take a major talent hit after jettisoning Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, but should actually be better than they look on paper. Johnson and Williams were good, but not great, and the leftover parts are better than #NBArank thinks.
SCHOENE actually predicts the second seed in the East for Atlanta, despite the conference's 8th-best talent rating. As for the rest of this division, poor talent will in fact lead to bad on-court results. The Washington Wizards may indeed be slightly improved, but the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats are just as bad as they look on paper.
Western Conference
Southwest "Talent"
San Ant. Spurs Rtg. Mem. Grizzlies Rtg. Dallas Mavericks Rtg. NO Hornets Rtg. Hou. Rockets Rtg.
Tony Parker 8.21 Mike Conley 6.27 Darren Collison 5.51 Greivis Vasquez 4.08 Jeremy Lin 5.95
Manu Ginobili 7.75 Tony Allen 6.26 O.J. Mayo 5.6 Eric Gordon 7.05 Kevin Martin 5.99
Kawhi Leonard 5.54 Rudy Gay 7.33 Shawn Marion 5.59 Al-Farouq Aminu 3.7 Chandler Parsons 4.81
Tim Duncan 7.67 Zach Randolph 7.26 Dirk Nowitzki 8.64 Ryan Anderson 6.62 Patrick Patterson 4.02
Boris Diaw 4.69 Marc Gasol 7.79 Chris Kaman 5.24 Anthony Davis 6.31 Omer Asik 5.48
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Tiago Splitter 4.83 Darrell Arthur 4.63 Elton Brand 5.75 Robin Lopez 4.62 Carlos Delfino 4.59
Stephen Jackson 4.83 Marreese Speights 4.38 Delonte West 4.72 Jason Smith 3.62 Jeremy Lamb 3.61
DeJuan Blair 4.78 Jerryd Bayless 4.38 Vince Carter 4.52 Hakim Warrick 3.56 Shaun Livingston 3.52
Danny Green 4.71 Hamed Haddadi 3.21 Rodrigue Beaubois 4.29 Austin Rivers 3.45 Royce White 3.41
Gary Neal 4.6 Wayne Ellington 2.93 Brandan Wright 4.2 Roger Mason 3.3 Terrence Jones 3.25
Matt Bonner 4.37 Quincy Pondexter 2.85 Dahntay Jones 3.31 Xavier Henry 3.08 Marcus Morris 3.16
Patrick Mills 3.25 D.J. Kennedy 1.62 Bernard James 2.19 Lance Thomas 2.18 Toney Douglas 3.13
Team Rtg. 5.97 Team Rtg. 5.75 Team Rtg. 5.48 Team Rtg. 4.81 Team Rtg. 4.64
Talent agrees with reality in the case of the San Antonio Spurs, who have the best NBArank rating in the Southwest and are favorites to lock up this division for the tenth time in fifteen years. How the rest of the division shakes out might depend on health, though; the Memphis Grizzlies' high talent mark doesn't take into account the fact that Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur missed much of last season, and the New Orleans Hornets' rating assumes a full season from Eric Gordon.
Combine that with the Dallas Mavericks' overall team age, and each team has scenarios in which they underwhelm relative to on-paper talent. Nobody's arguing that the Houston Rockets won't have a rebuilding season, though, whether looking at talent or projecting the team statistically.
Northwest "Talent"
OKC Thunder Rtg. Denver Nuggets Rtg. Minn. T-Wolves Rtg. Utah Jazz Rtg. Por.Trail Blazers Rtg.
Russell Westbrook 8.76 Ty Lawson 6.68 Ricky Rubio 6.71 Mo Williams 5.06 Damian Lillard 4.24
James Harden 7.7 Andre Iguodala 7.65 Brandon Roy 4.85 Gordon Hayward 5.09 Wesley Matthews 5.26
Kevin Durant 9.7 Danilo Gallinari 6.55 Andrei Kirilenko 5.93 Marvin Williams 4.69 Nicolas Batum 6.3
Serge Ibaka 6.93 Kenneth Faried 6.13 Kevin Love 8.86 Paul Millsap 6.55 J.J. Hickson 4.31
Kendrick Perkins 5.15 JaVale McGee 5.98 Nikola Pekovic 5.34 Al Jefferson 6.87 LaMarcus Aldridge 7.99
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Nick Collison 5.48 Wilson Chandler 5.58 Chase Budinger 4.97 Derrick Favors 5.61 Jared Jeffries 3.61
Thabo Sefolosha 5.16 Andre Miller 5.55 Jose Barea 4.97 Randy Foye 4.33 Meyers Leonard 3.03
Eric Maynor 4.49 Corey Brewer 4.3 Derrick Williams 4.93 Enes Kanter 4.28 Nolan Smith 2.97
Daequan Cook 3.44 Timofey Mozgov 4.13 Luke Ridnour 4.41 Alec Burks 3.88 Sasha Pavlovic 2.86
Reggie Jackson 2.93 Anthony Randolph 3.6 Greg Stiemsma 3.58 Earl Watson 3.12 Ronnie Price 2.76
Lazar Hayward 2.67 Kosta Koufos 3.55 Louis Amundson 3.38 Jamaal Tinsley 2.91 Luke Babbitt 2.57
Cole Aldrich 2.62 Jordan Hamilton 2.97 Dante Cunningham 3.33 DeMarre Carroll 2.72 Elliot Williams 2.39
Team Rtg. 6.32 Team Rtg. 5.79 Team Rtg. 5.62 Team Rtg. 5.05 Team Rtg. 4.64
Everyone will agree that this division belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, last year's Western Conference champs and the league's third-most talented team behind the Heat and Lakers. The next three teams are intriguing, though. After adding Andre Iguodala, the Denver Nuggets are once again an excellent test case in whether strong aggregate talent (their NBArank rating is seventh-best in the NBA) can add up to a title contender in real life.
The Minnesota Timberwolves also theoretically look pretty good, ranking 12th in the league in NBArank rating, but they also finished 21st in point differential last season, so it's still an open question whether their talent will translate to wins this year. And contrast those two with the Utah Jazz, who don't look like much on paper but will likely contend again for a playoff slot. Meanwhile, after gutting their roster last season, the Portland Trail Blazers' lack of talent is probably indicative of how they'll finish.
Pacific "Talent"
Los Angeles Lakers Rtg. Los Angeles Clippers Rtg. Golden State Warriors Rtg. Phoenix Suns Rtg. Sacramento Kings Rtg.
Steve Nash 8.02 Chris Paul 9.52 Stephen Curry 6.97 Goran Dragic 5.83 Isaiah Thomas 4.83
Kobe Bryant 8.88 Chauncey Billups 5.26 Klay Thompson 4.96 Shannon Brown 3.99 Marcus Thornton 4.98
Metta World Peace 4.94 Caron Butler 5.06 Harrison Barnes 4.57 Jared Dudley 4.91 Tyreke Evans 6.15
Pau Gasol 8.24 Blake Griffin 8.25 David Lee 6.36 Luis Scola 6.18 Thomas Robinson 4.19
Dwight Howard 9.58 DeAndre Jordan 5.72 Andrew Bogut 6.76 Marcin Gortat 6.38 DeMarcus Cousins 6.91
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Antawn Jamison 4.77 Jamal Crawford 5.25 Carl Landry 5.07 Michael Beasley 4.72 Chuck Hayes 4.58
Jordan Hill 4.13 Grant Hill 5.22 Jarrett Jack 4.69 Channing Frye 4.45 Aaron Brooks 4.49
Steve Blake 3.9 Eric Bledsoe 5.11 Brandon Rush 4.56 Jermaine O'Neal 4 Jason Thompson 4.04
Jodie Meeks 3.8 Lamar Odom 5 Richard Jefferson 4.54 Markieff Morris 3.96 John Salmons 3.62
Devin Ebanks 2.9 Matt Barnes 4.04 Andris Biedrins 3.47 Kendall Marshall 3.36 Francisco Garcia 3.62
Earl Clark 2.88 Willie Green 3.27 Draymond Green 2.99 Wesley Johnson 3.13 Jimmer Fredette 3.28
Chris Duhon 2.86 Ronny Turiaf 3.2 Charles Jenkins 2.77 Sebastian Telfair 2.77 James Johnson 3.22
Team Rtg. 6.38 Team Rtg. 5.99 Team Rtg. 5.3 Team Rtg. 4.89 Team Rtg. 4.87
You might be surprised that the Dwight Howard-infused Los Angeles Lakers didn't shatter the talent scale; I know I was. Although they had the second-best talent rating in the NBA, and by far the league's most intimidating starting lineup, they still finished slightly behind Miami because of their bench, which was unimpressive by NBArank (and that's with the talent ratings being too bullish on 36-year-old Antawn Jamison, although #NBArank's underrating of Jodie Meeks possibly cancels that out).
But that's nitpicking -- the Lakers have, at worst, the second-most-gifted roster in the sport. The talent ratings also think highly of the Los Angeles Clippers, although they're likely to undershoot their fifth-overall projection because NBArank overrated a number of their veterans. Because of bad defense, the Golden State Warriors are another team that perpetually seems to underachieve relative to their talent; these ratings have them vying for a playoff bid, while SCHOENE says they end up 13th in the West. In the Pacific basement, though, the fortunes of the rebuilding Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings are pretty well summarized by their subpar talent scores.
Time and again, we've seen that on-paper talent doesn't necessarily lead to great things on the court, and I'm certain we'll see plenty of disconnect between these pure talent ratings and the standings at the end of the season. However, it can also be informative to know where your team stands in terms of talent, as well as discovering market inefficiencies where a lack of talent can be covered by good coaching or chemistry.
After all, talent is a key component of building a winning basketball team, but it's far from the only ingredient. The teams that do better than predicted here are likely to have found the "secret sauce" that separates a cohesive team from a mere collection of disparate parts.
Which teams are the most talented?
Using #NBArank, we measure the 'true talent' of every team in every division
Updated: October 23, 2012, 2:42 PM ET
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
4
9
KGAP Photo/Elise AmendolHow does Kevin Garnett and the Celtics' "talent" measure up to the rest of their division?
Yesterday, I took a look at the amount of inherent talent on the rosters of each past NBA champion, comparing them to the talent that the Miami Heat were theoretically working with when they won it all last season. But now it's time to turn our attention to the upcoming 2012-13 season, applying the same general idea to determine just how much raw talent is on hand for each squad this year.
When looking at historical rosters, we needed to use Win Shares to gauge how talented each team was in each season, but for current teams we can get a more accurate view of their aggregate ability by using ESPN's #NBArank poll data, which employed the wisdom of crowds (a surprisingly informative method of information-gathering) and therefore can account for variables that sometimes trip up purely mathematical systems, including predictions regarding the performances of rookies.
What follows is a round-up of how each division looks "on paper." The player ratings were determined by NBArank -- with some educated guesses for players who weren't included on the ballot -- and a team's rating is simply a weighted average of its players' ratings, where starters are given more weight than backups, who in turn are given more weight than 11th/12th men. Note as well that "starters" mean players receiving starter-level minutes, not necessarily the five players who are on the floor for the tip-off every game (for instance, James Harden is listed over Thabo Sefolosha in OKC).
So just who has the most "talented" roster in each division?
Eastern Conference
Atlantic "talent"
It's not exactly a surprise that the Boston Celtics are the division's best team on paper; after all, that's been the case every year since 2007-08. But it might be shocking to see the Brooklyn Nets edge out the New York Knicks for second place in pure talent. The Nets' offseason aim was to add as much talent as possible, and it's tough to argue that they didn't accomplish that goal, especially when you see their roster on paper.
However, Brooklyn is overrated here because their defense is likely to be below-average, while the Knicks' D should be strong again. The Philadelphia 76ers are another team whose talent deficiencies should masked by a tough defense, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them ahead of Brooklyn as well when the dust clears. The talent ratings don't lie when it comes to the Toronto Raptors, though -- while they should be improved and could possibly make a playoff run, it's unlikely they escape the Atlantic basement in 2012-13.
Central "Talent"
Chicago Bulls Rtg. Indiana Pacers Rtg. Mil. Bucks Rtg. Detroit Pistons Rtg. Cle. Cavaliers Rtg.
Derrick Rose 9.02 George Hill 5.71 Brandon Jennings 6.32 Brandon Knight 4.58 Kyrie Irving 7.83
Richard Hamilton 4.5 Paul George 6 Monta Ellis 6.74 Rodney Stuckey 5.4 C.J. Miles 3.78
Luol Deng 7.06 Danny Granger 7.02 Mike Dunleavy 4.65 Tayshaun Prince 4.85 Alonzo Gee 3.58
Carlos Boozer 6.18 David West 6.42 Ersan Ilyasova 6.11 Jonas Jerebko 4.28 Tristan Thompson 4.36
Joakim Noah 7.17 Roy Hibbert 7.19 Samuel Dalembert 4.94 Greg Monroe 6.66 Anderson Varejao 6.09
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Taj Gibson 5.84 D.J. Augustin 4.84 Luc Mbah a Moute 4.81 Corey Maggette 4.12 Omri Casspi 4.25
Kirk Hinrich 4.49 Tyler Hansbrough 4.59 Drew Gooden 4.19 Jason Maxiell 3.88 Daniel Gibson 3.71
Marco Belinelli 4.07 Gerald Green 3.82 Ekpe Udoh 4.06 Will Bynum 3.85 Dion Waiters 3.39
Nate Robinson 3.54 Ian Mahinmi 3.76 Beno Udrih 4.05 Austin Daye 3.85 Tyler Zeller 3.32
Nazr Mohammed 3.29 Sam Young 3.55 Joel Przybilla 3.56 Charlie Villanueva 3.62 Jon Leuer 2.83
Vladimir Radmanovic 3.03 Lance Stephenson 2.52 Marquis Daniels 3.4 Andre Drummond 3.54 Luke Harangody 2.65
Marquis Teague 2.86 Sundiata Gaines 2.52 John Henson 3.38 Terrence Williams 2.82 Samardo Samuels 2.61
Team Rtg. 5.77 Team Rtg. 5.51 Team Rtg. 5.11 Team Rtg. 4.64 Team Rtg. 4.48
The talent ratings have this division pretty well pegged, although the Chicago Bulls might find themselves closer to the pack with Derrick Rose sidelined for more than half the season (in addition to an offseason that saw their highly effective bench raided in free agency). Still, the smart money says that Chicago retains the division, with the Indiana Pacers not far behind and the Milwaukee Bucks further back, scrambling for a playoff berth.
One interesting note -- the talent ratings see the Detroit Pistons coming out ahead of the Cleveland Cavaliers; while Detroit finished ahead of Cleveland a year ago, Basketball Prospectus' SCHOENE projections call for the Cavs to improve enough offensively to leapfrog the Pistons in 2013. Then again, it probably shouldn't surprise anyone that a team with Corey Maggette and Charlie Villanueva on the roster looks better on paper than in reality.
Southeast "Talent"
Miami Heat Rtg. Atlanta Hawks Rtg. Washington Wizards Rtg. Orlando Magic Rtg. Charlotte Bobcats Rtg.
Mario Chalmers 5.39 Jeff Teague 5.26 John Wall 6.54 Jameer Nelson 5.41 Ramon Sessions 4.84
Dwyane Wade 8.77 Louis Williams 5.69 Bradley Beal 4.61 Arron Afflalo 5.89 Ben Gordon 4.8
LeBron James 9.99 Kyle Korver 4.5 Trevor Ariza 4.88 Hedo Turkoglu 4.42 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist 5.03
Shane Battier 5.3 Josh Smith 7.55 Nene Hilario 6.58 Al Harrington 4.87 Bismack Biyombo 4.11
Chris Bosh 8.04 Al Horford 7.56 Emeka Okafor 5.45 Glen Davis 4.9 Brendan Haywood 3.66
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Ray Allen 6.3 Devin Harris 5.29 Jordan Crawford 4.14 J.J. Redick 5.19 Gerald Henderson 4.52
Udonis Haslem 5.02 Anthony Morrow 4.38 Jan Vesely 3.61 Gustavo Ayon 4.19 Kemba Walker 4.36
Joel Anthony 4.25 Zaza Pachulia 4.08 Trevor Booker 3.53 Quentin Richardson 3.69 Tyrus Thomas 3.73
Mike Miller 3.98 Anthony Tolliver 3.41 Kevin Seraphin 3.51 Nikola Vucevic 3.5 Reggie Williams 3.5
James Jones 3.74 Ivan Johnson 3.24 Martell Webster 3.4 Josh McRoberts 3.28 Byron Mullens 3.18
Norris Cole 3.71 DeShawn Stevenson 3.16 Chris Singleton 2.85 Christian Eyenga 2.5 Jeff Taylor 2.45
Rashard Lewis 3.71 Damion James 2.25 Jannero Pargo 2.68 Armon Johnson 2.49 DeSagana Diop 2.25
Team Rtg. 6.4 Team Rtg. 5.28 Team Rtg. 4.83 Team Rtg. 4.6 Team Rtg. 4.17
According to the talent ratings, this is the most lopsided division race in the league. In one corner, you've got the Miami Heat, defending NBA champs and the most talented team in the league. In the other corner... everybody else. That storyline might prove misleading, however, in the case of the Atlanta Hawks, who appeared to take a major talent hit after jettisoning Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams, but should actually be better than they look on paper. Johnson and Williams were good, but not great, and the leftover parts are better than #NBArank thinks.
SCHOENE actually predicts the second seed in the East for Atlanta, despite the conference's 8th-best talent rating. As for the rest of this division, poor talent will in fact lead to bad on-court results. The Washington Wizards may indeed be slightly improved, but the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats are just as bad as they look on paper.
Western Conference
Southwest "Talent"
San Ant. Spurs Rtg. Mem. Grizzlies Rtg. Dallas Mavericks Rtg. NO Hornets Rtg. Hou. Rockets Rtg.
Tony Parker 8.21 Mike Conley 6.27 Darren Collison 5.51 Greivis Vasquez 4.08 Jeremy Lin 5.95
Manu Ginobili 7.75 Tony Allen 6.26 O.J. Mayo 5.6 Eric Gordon 7.05 Kevin Martin 5.99
Kawhi Leonard 5.54 Rudy Gay 7.33 Shawn Marion 5.59 Al-Farouq Aminu 3.7 Chandler Parsons 4.81
Tim Duncan 7.67 Zach Randolph 7.26 Dirk Nowitzki 8.64 Ryan Anderson 6.62 Patrick Patterson 4.02
Boris Diaw 4.69 Marc Gasol 7.79 Chris Kaman 5.24 Anthony Davis 6.31 Omer Asik 5.48
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Tiago Splitter 4.83 Darrell Arthur 4.63 Elton Brand 5.75 Robin Lopez 4.62 Carlos Delfino 4.59
Stephen Jackson 4.83 Marreese Speights 4.38 Delonte West 4.72 Jason Smith 3.62 Jeremy Lamb 3.61
DeJuan Blair 4.78 Jerryd Bayless 4.38 Vince Carter 4.52 Hakim Warrick 3.56 Shaun Livingston 3.52
Danny Green 4.71 Hamed Haddadi 3.21 Rodrigue Beaubois 4.29 Austin Rivers 3.45 Royce White 3.41
Gary Neal 4.6 Wayne Ellington 2.93 Brandan Wright 4.2 Roger Mason 3.3 Terrence Jones 3.25
Matt Bonner 4.37 Quincy Pondexter 2.85 Dahntay Jones 3.31 Xavier Henry 3.08 Marcus Morris 3.16
Patrick Mills 3.25 D.J. Kennedy 1.62 Bernard James 2.19 Lance Thomas 2.18 Toney Douglas 3.13
Team Rtg. 5.97 Team Rtg. 5.75 Team Rtg. 5.48 Team Rtg. 4.81 Team Rtg. 4.64
Talent agrees with reality in the case of the San Antonio Spurs, who have the best NBArank rating in the Southwest and are favorites to lock up this division for the tenth time in fifteen years. How the rest of the division shakes out might depend on health, though; the Memphis Grizzlies' high talent mark doesn't take into account the fact that Zach Randolph and Darrell Arthur missed much of last season, and the New Orleans Hornets' rating assumes a full season from Eric Gordon.
Combine that with the Dallas Mavericks' overall team age, and each team has scenarios in which they underwhelm relative to on-paper talent. Nobody's arguing that the Houston Rockets won't have a rebuilding season, though, whether looking at talent or projecting the team statistically.
Northwest "Talent"
OKC Thunder Rtg. Denver Nuggets Rtg. Minn. T-Wolves Rtg. Utah Jazz Rtg. Por.Trail Blazers Rtg.
Russell Westbrook 8.76 Ty Lawson 6.68 Ricky Rubio 6.71 Mo Williams 5.06 Damian Lillard 4.24
James Harden 7.7 Andre Iguodala 7.65 Brandon Roy 4.85 Gordon Hayward 5.09 Wesley Matthews 5.26
Kevin Durant 9.7 Danilo Gallinari 6.55 Andrei Kirilenko 5.93 Marvin Williams 4.69 Nicolas Batum 6.3
Serge Ibaka 6.93 Kenneth Faried 6.13 Kevin Love 8.86 Paul Millsap 6.55 J.J. Hickson 4.31
Kendrick Perkins 5.15 JaVale McGee 5.98 Nikola Pekovic 5.34 Al Jefferson 6.87 LaMarcus Aldridge 7.99
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Nick Collison 5.48 Wilson Chandler 5.58 Chase Budinger 4.97 Derrick Favors 5.61 Jared Jeffries 3.61
Thabo Sefolosha 5.16 Andre Miller 5.55 Jose Barea 4.97 Randy Foye 4.33 Meyers Leonard 3.03
Eric Maynor 4.49 Corey Brewer 4.3 Derrick Williams 4.93 Enes Kanter 4.28 Nolan Smith 2.97
Daequan Cook 3.44 Timofey Mozgov 4.13 Luke Ridnour 4.41 Alec Burks 3.88 Sasha Pavlovic 2.86
Reggie Jackson 2.93 Anthony Randolph 3.6 Greg Stiemsma 3.58 Earl Watson 3.12 Ronnie Price 2.76
Lazar Hayward 2.67 Kosta Koufos 3.55 Louis Amundson 3.38 Jamaal Tinsley 2.91 Luke Babbitt 2.57
Cole Aldrich 2.62 Jordan Hamilton 2.97 Dante Cunningham 3.33 DeMarre Carroll 2.72 Elliot Williams 2.39
Team Rtg. 6.32 Team Rtg. 5.79 Team Rtg. 5.62 Team Rtg. 5.05 Team Rtg. 4.64
Everyone will agree that this division belongs to the Oklahoma City Thunder, last year's Western Conference champs and the league's third-most talented team behind the Heat and Lakers. The next three teams are intriguing, though. After adding Andre Iguodala, the Denver Nuggets are once again an excellent test case in whether strong aggregate talent (their NBArank rating is seventh-best in the NBA) can add up to a title contender in real life.
The Minnesota Timberwolves also theoretically look pretty good, ranking 12th in the league in NBArank rating, but they also finished 21st in point differential last season, so it's still an open question whether their talent will translate to wins this year. And contrast those two with the Utah Jazz, who don't look like much on paper but will likely contend again for a playoff slot. Meanwhile, after gutting their roster last season, the Portland Trail Blazers' lack of talent is probably indicative of how they'll finish.
Pacific "Talent"
Los Angeles Lakers Rtg. Los Angeles Clippers Rtg. Golden State Warriors Rtg. Phoenix Suns Rtg. Sacramento Kings Rtg.
Steve Nash 8.02 Chris Paul 9.52 Stephen Curry 6.97 Goran Dragic 5.83 Isaiah Thomas 4.83
Kobe Bryant 8.88 Chauncey Billups 5.26 Klay Thompson 4.96 Shannon Brown 3.99 Marcus Thornton 4.98
Metta World Peace 4.94 Caron Butler 5.06 Harrison Barnes 4.57 Jared Dudley 4.91 Tyreke Evans 6.15
Pau Gasol 8.24 Blake Griffin 8.25 David Lee 6.36 Luis Scola 6.18 Thomas Robinson 4.19
Dwight Howard 9.58 DeAndre Jordan 5.72 Andrew Bogut 6.76 Marcin Gortat 6.38 DeMarcus Cousins 6.91
Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg. Bench Rtg.
Antawn Jamison 4.77 Jamal Crawford 5.25 Carl Landry 5.07 Michael Beasley 4.72 Chuck Hayes 4.58
Jordan Hill 4.13 Grant Hill 5.22 Jarrett Jack 4.69 Channing Frye 4.45 Aaron Brooks 4.49
Steve Blake 3.9 Eric Bledsoe 5.11 Brandon Rush 4.56 Jermaine O'Neal 4 Jason Thompson 4.04
Jodie Meeks 3.8 Lamar Odom 5 Richard Jefferson 4.54 Markieff Morris 3.96 John Salmons 3.62
Devin Ebanks 2.9 Matt Barnes 4.04 Andris Biedrins 3.47 Kendall Marshall 3.36 Francisco Garcia 3.62
Earl Clark 2.88 Willie Green 3.27 Draymond Green 2.99 Wesley Johnson 3.13 Jimmer Fredette 3.28
Chris Duhon 2.86 Ronny Turiaf 3.2 Charles Jenkins 2.77 Sebastian Telfair 2.77 James Johnson 3.22
Team Rtg. 6.38 Team Rtg. 5.99 Team Rtg. 5.3 Team Rtg. 4.89 Team Rtg. 4.87
You might be surprised that the Dwight Howard-infused Los Angeles Lakers didn't shatter the talent scale; I know I was. Although they had the second-best talent rating in the NBA, and by far the league's most intimidating starting lineup, they still finished slightly behind Miami because of their bench, which was unimpressive by NBArank (and that's with the talent ratings being too bullish on 36-year-old Antawn Jamison, although #NBArank's underrating of Jodie Meeks possibly cancels that out).
But that's nitpicking -- the Lakers have, at worst, the second-most-gifted roster in the sport. The talent ratings also think highly of the Los Angeles Clippers, although they're likely to undershoot their fifth-overall projection because NBArank overrated a number of their veterans. Because of bad defense, the Golden State Warriors are another team that perpetually seems to underachieve relative to their talent; these ratings have them vying for a playoff bid, while SCHOENE says they end up 13th in the West. In the Pacific basement, though, the fortunes of the rebuilding Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings are pretty well summarized by their subpar talent scores.
Time and again, we've seen that on-paper talent doesn't necessarily lead to great things on the court, and I'm certain we'll see plenty of disconnect between these pure talent ratings and the standings at the end of the season. However, it can also be informative to know where your team stands in terms of talent, as well as discovering market inefficiencies where a lack of talent can be covered by good coaching or chemistry.
After all, talent is a key component of building a winning basketball team, but it's far from the only ingredient. The teams that do better than predicted here are likely to have found the "secret sauce" that separates a cohesive team from a mere collection of disparate parts.
