Post by FLCeltsFan on Oct 10, 2012 13:27:00 GMT -5
Boston Celtics: 2012-13 Forecast
Updated: October 10, 2012, 9:34 AM ET
By John Hollinger | ESPN.com
1
25
Hollinger Profiles: Boston Celtics
Cary Chow and John Hollinger preview the Boston Celtics.
GO TO: Overview 2011-12 Recap Offseason Moves Outlook
Overview
Well, they're not going away quietly. Much as we might be tempted to write off the aging Celtics, they've retooled their roster yet again and nobody else in the East save Miami seems particularly daunting. As a result, the Celtics stand as good a chance as anyone of standing toe-to-toe with the Heat in the conference finals, just as they did in their surprising trip to that round in the 2012 playoffs.
In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round. Nonetheless, there was no expectation Boston would be there at all at midseason. A rejuvenated Kevin Garnett and its usual suffocating defense got it closer than anyone imagined.
HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Celtics' roster. Player Profiles Insider
However, this will be their ceiling unless the Celtics get better on offense, where strong field goal percentages were more than offset by high turnover rates and a near-total aversion to offensive rebounding (more on that below). They should at least get more points from the bench this time around, after adding Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jared Sullinger, and bringing back Jeff Green. Last season's second unit was basically aiming for a scoreless tie; this one will get some points.
While we call the Celtics old because Garnett and Paul Pierce are a combined 70 years, they've done a solid job of moving some youth into the pipeline as well. Avery Bradley is only 21 and will get a full season as a starter after his insertion into the starting lineup keyed Boston's midseason turnaround in 2011-12. Boston also got a decade younger at shooting guard by replacing Allen with Lee. First-round picks Sullinger and Fab Melo should help round out the frontcourt after last year's rookie find, Greg Stiemsma, departed for Minnesota. And should they falter, a couple of veteran insurance policies (Chris Wilcox, Darko Milicic) remain in the fold.
2011-12 Recap
Rajon Rondo and Dwyane WadeJim Davis/Getty ImagesRajon Rondo and the C's couldn't withstand the Heat after pushing the East finals to seven games.
Boston's KG Era teetered on the brink of extinction for much of last season before a late charge behind -- what else -- suffocating defense saw them emerge as a conference finalist, with a big assist from Derrick Rose's knee ligaments. Garnett himself was much of the cause, as he struggled to move early in the season before finding his sea legs for the stretch run.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS
W-L: 39-27 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-26)
Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (24th)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.5 (2nd)
Pace Factor: 92.6 (22nd)
Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (20.47)
The Celtics had a few shifts along the way, most notably the one that saw Bradley take over as the starting shooting guard from Allen … a move that almost immediately took Boston's defense from merely good to downright scary. The Celtics also found a shot-blocker off the scrap heap in Stiemsma, and mixed and matched an assortment of veteran riff-raff around their top six players.
By the end, Boston was in a familiar spot: second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics led the NBA in field goal defense and 3-point defense, but they fouled more than the league average, which is why the Bulls had a better efficiency mark overall.
They were also particularly good at forcing opponents to screw up: The Celtics led the NBA in turnovers not from steals, at 8.7 percent of opponent possessions.
Worst Offensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12
Team Off. RR
Boston 19.7
Golden State 22.9
Dallas 23.4
Charlotte 23.6
Atlanta 23.9
League average 27.0
The thing a lot of people didn't understand about Boston last season is how bad it was on offense. The Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency, and the core problem was how rarely they got second chances. Boston rebounded only 19.7 percent of its misses (see chart), which was the worst offensive rebound rate of all time. Yes, ever. With both big men usually spotting up on the perimeter, if not outright retreating on defense, the Celtics rarely had a player in position for a second shot. When they did, it was often the point guard. Between that and an above-average turnover rate, the Celtics averaged fewer shots per possession than any team in basketball, and you can't very well score if you don't shoot. They shot the ball just fine; in fact the Celtics were well above the league average in shooting and TS%. They just didn't generate nearly enough attempts.
Fewest "Shots"* Per 100 Poss., 2011-12
Team Shots/100
Boston 92.3
Oklahoma City 94.4
Miami 94.9
New Orleans 95.0
Toronto 95.0
League average 96.6
"Shots" = FGA + (FTA*0.44)
Notice in the chart that the second-worst team in this category, Oklahoma City, was still about as close to the league average as they were to the Celtics. While the Thunder and Heat were bad in this area too, the Celtics were magnitudes worse.
The good news in Boston's offensive malaise is that much of it was the result of the bench, not the core group. The Celtics got an astounding 4,315 minutes from players with single-digit PERs last season, and not one of them will be on the roster this season. If they can just replace the Pietruses, Hollinses and O'Neals of last season with halfway decent offensive players, they may improve quite a bit at this end.
Offseason Moves
Jason TerryBrian Babineau/NBAE via Getty ImagesAfter Boston let Ray Allen leave, Jason Terry swooped in to provide a boost in the backcourt.
Save for one orca-sized wart, the Celtics had themselves a fine offseason that should launch them right back into the Eastern Conference race. Even the one free-agent setback (Ray Allen's departure) was followed by an admirable recovery that arguably left them in better shape than if Allen had stayed:
Re-signed Jeff Green for four years, $36 million: Can they amnesty Green yet, or do they have to wait until the games start? Maybe the Celtics are just trying to keep us on our toes and prove they're capable of screwing up, too. Here's what we know: Green was a fungible player before he missed last season with a heart problem; guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level is something we might expect from a couple of the league's bumbling organizations, but certainly not this one.
I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer.
Re-signed Kevin Garnett for three years, $35 million: And now for the good news … Boston was able to keep their meal ticket, and more important, kept him at a salary just low enough that they could use their full midlevel exception and participate in sign-and-trades. (Both of these factors became hugely important as Boston's offseason progressed.) The Celtics even have a non-guaranteed third season on the deal, so if Garnett chooses to retire after two campaigns he'll leave Boston with a potentially enormous trade chip. (Garnett has a no-trade clause, but if he retires one presumes he won't mind.)
Let Greg Stiemsma and Jermaine O'Neal go, drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo: Boston's cap realities prevented them from keeping Stiemsma, especially once their entire midlevel exception went to Jason Terry. Once that happened, they had no means of matching Minnesota's offer sheet. Instead, they'll go young in the frontcourt with first-round picks Sullinger and Melo. Of the two, I like Sullinger better -- he has a Brandon Bass-type game but with a better knack on the glass, so if his back holds up and he stays in shape he could be very effective. Melo is more of a classic backup center; he'll block shots, but don't pass him the ball unless he's wide open for a dunk.
Sign-and-traded Sasha Pavlovic and two second-round picks to Portland, traded JaJaun Johnson, Sean Williams and E'Twaun Moore to Houston, received a sign-and-traded Courtney Lee for four years, $21 million: One way Boston made up for Ray Allen's loss was this sweet piece of salary cap machination, in which the non-guaranteed deals of Williams and Moore were pooled with other flotsam and parlayed into an ace 3-point shooter who can guard opposing wings. Lee should be a great fit in Boston's system and is young enough that the years aren't too great a risk, helping the Celtics re-arm for the final thrust of the KG Era. Boston also sent cash to the Blazers to pay Pavlovic's salary, and two second-round picks to compensate them for having to watch Pavlovic dribble.
Watched Ray Allen walk, signed Jason Terry for three years, $15.6 million: This was another solid move for the Celtics, as they got a shot-creating guard to give their second unit a much-needed shot in the arm. Terry isn't the pure shooter that Allen is, but his shot creation will be very helpful on a team that has struggled the past two seasons in this area.
Signed Jason Collins for one year, minimum: You're yawning now, but in the event the Celtics play the Lakers in the NBA Finals this is going to become very important. Collins is of limited use against quicker lineups but worth keeping around because of how amazingly well he defends big post-up centers.
Resigned Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox for one year, minimum: Now this one, you can yawn about. Dooling ended up retiring.
Signed Darko Milicic for one year, minimum: I'm convinced they did this just to torment The Sports Guy. I don't have a Swahili dictionary handy, but "Darko" may very well be the antonym of "ubuntu."
2012-13 Outlook
Kevin GarnettGreg M. Cooper/US PresswireCan the remaining members of the Big Three era push the reshuffled Celtics into the title picture?
The big-picture view is that they'll defend, though perhaps not quite as well, and they'll struggle to score, but perhaps not quite as badly.
Defensively, Garnett's presence alone virtually guarantees that they'll be above average, but losing Stiemsma and adding two rookies to the frontcourt rotation will hurt the second unit defensively. And while Lee is an upgrade on Allen, Boston used a lot of all-glove, no-hit guys off the bench (Dooling, Pietrus, Pavlovic) last season that now are being replaced with more offense-minded players. If the Celtics are to point to one defensive positive, it's that the suffocating pressure of Bradley will be in the starting lineup … but Bradley may not be back for a while after offseason shoulder surgery.
The good news, however, is that the added offense, especially from Terry, should take some of the strain off Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. The former two players struggle to create easy looks in one-on-one situations, and while Rondo can be a dynamite set-up man, his own inability to score makes it hard to use him as the focal point.
Thus, the likes of Terry, Lee, Sullinger and Green will add more options for Boston offensively, particularly when the second unit comes in. (Boston's bench was pitiful offensively last season.) There isn't a pure point guard in the bunch and that may cause some strains, but Boston is likely to improve on its 24th-place standing of last season … particularly if some of the new guys try for offensive boards.
Overall, then, Boston is poised to end up right back where it was last season. With no daunting power in the East beyond Miami, the race for the second position in the conference is there for the taking. I have the Celtics projected in a tight pack with several other teams, so they could easily finish as low as sixth or seventh or as high as second. But given their recent track record, nobody will count them out in the playoffs regardless of where they're seeded.
Prediction: 48-34, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference
