Post by FLCeltsFan on Sept 25, 2012 19:10:17 GMT -5
Are Celtics sneaky good?
Boston greatly improved its roster quietly and efficiently
Updated: September 25, 2012, 1:36 PM ET
By David Thorpe | ESPN Insider
Garnett/Rondo/Pierce Rafael Suanes/US PresswireRajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce should get more rest with the depth on their roster.
Most of the talk this offseason has centered on the Los Angeles Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Miami Heat. Even the Philadelphia 76ers have drawn some interest with the addition of Andrew Bynum. Big trades and free-agent acquisitions will do that.
However, the Boston Celtics did neither (save for re-signing Kevin Garnett) and very quietly have had a tremendous offseason. With some good fortune this season, they could be just the team to break Miami's stranglehold on the Eastern Conference crown.
For much of the 2011-12 postseason, Garnett was the best player in the NBA. While it would not be fair to expect a carbon copy of that performance next May and June, it's certainly fair to expect that he'll remain a dominant force on both ends of the court.
For much of that same span of time, Rajon Rondo was almost as dominant, and he can be fully expected to continue that trend this postseason as he enters his prime. Paul Pierce, though his game has eroded a bit, is possibly more competitive than I've ever seen him -- more locked in to "we, not me," and is absolutely capable of being the team's best player during stretches this spring.
In last season's lockout-crammed schedule, Boston's "Big Three" (Rondo had replaced Ray Allen in that grouping last season) played 31 minutes (Garnett), 34 minutes (Pierce) and 37 minutes (Rondo) per game. Now compare those minutes to those of the San Antonio Spurs' Big Three. Tony Parker averaged 32 minutes, Tim Duncan logged 28 per night and Manu Ginobili checked in at just 23 minutes per game. That is a significant discrepancy in minutes played. Simply, Doc Rivers had little choice but to play those men that much.
Still, the Celtics had some terrific efforts in the postseason, despite the huge number of minutes their top players played in the jammed schedule. But what general manager Danny Ainge did more than anything is offer Rivers options to rest his top guys while still giving his team a great chance to win on any given night. That depth is an option he did not have last season. That depth is also something the Miami Heat do not have.
And this is where Boston's offseason will shine.
'Big' minutes
A healthy Jeff Green should be counted on to help spell both Pierce and Garnett, so even if Green recedes a bit from his underwhelming career averages, buying those two vets extra rest will help the team in the long run. But there is every reason to believe Green will actually improve from his play in previous seasons. Joe Kaiser discussed Green's role last month.
Comfortable in his new role, and in a role that should be well-defined, Green has a strong chance to have a career season. His raw averages might not be great, as he won't get the minutes most other 26-year-old top-five picks will get, but his metrics per minute can be strong.
Perhaps an even more interesting "minute buyer" for Garnett is rookie center Fab Melo. This past spring I suggested that Melo would be a target for Boston with one of its multiple first-round picks purely because of the help he could provide for Garnett. His size and defensive disposition should be at a high enough level to earn minutes all season, allowing Rivers to play him extended time on more than a few occasions. The fact Boston might blow out a good number of teams should help, as well.
Jared Sullinger, Fab Melo
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty ImagesJared Sullinger and Fab Melo could be difference-makers for Boston very quickly.
It's possible that Melo will sit on the bench in May, as a rested Garnett should be able to play more than 36 minutes a game in the postseason. If, however, Melo learns to score more efficiently inside, likely as a "garbage man" with easy putbacks on loose balls, and can clog up the lane for an already terrific defensive squad, he becomes a valuable chip against teams like Philadelphia (with Bynum) or even Miami, when the Celtics don't go with a small lineup.
In terms of efficient scoring, Jared Sullinger presents an intriguing option. To be sure, he most likely will be a weak link for a season or two on defense, struggling with a lack of quickness at the point of attack, knowledge of opponents, understanding his defensive roles and rotations.
However, his learning curve will be fast on a veteran team like the Celtics, and his teammates can help cover his issues. Where Sullinger can help Boston a great deal immediately is as a rebounder (perhaps the Celtics' biggest need) and a finisher in the paint. Like Melo, Sullinger can be someone who saves minutes for Garnett but can also prove to be an offensive force on whom playoff opponents must focus, thus giving the Celtics' bigger weapons more freedom to operate.
Defense and outside shooting
As much as the three bigs can help Boston, the Celtics' biggest upgrade was at the guard position. Both Jason Terry and Courtney Lee, individually and as a combination, should be an upgrade over the Ray Allen/Avery Bradley platoon from last season.
Lee is a dynamic on-ball defender who is also a very strong 3-point shooter, though he's more accustomed to doing so on kickouts than off screens (an Allen preference). Terry is a big scoring option off the bench who should pair well with Rondo late in games. Both have postseason experience extending to the Finals, so they will not be "in shock" come spring.
But Lee's ability to defend most small forwards gives Boston an intriguing option -- playing both guards with Rondo, Pierce and Garnett as part of a small lineup. They'd have three guys on the court who have great range and three terrific ball handlers to protect late leads. And of that group only Terry would be exposed on defense. Being able to go big or small late in games will give the Celtics a decided advantage in many postseason matchups, something they have not been able to use well in the past (at least not compared to what they will have this season). When Bradley returns from his shoulder injury, he only adds another key guy to help spell a veteran, notably Rondo, as putting Bradley on the court with veterans like Lee or Terry will help him more than pairing him with a more pure shooting guard like Allen.
Boston won the Atlantic Division last season and appears to be deeper and more talented this season. The Celtics should be able to pull off the magical combination of limiting their top players' minutes without sacrificing much in terms of wins. Of course, having well-rested starters does not mean postseason wins are guaranteed, as the Spurs can attest. But last spring it was routine to see Garnett playing great for a long stretch, then huffing and puffing and resting with his hands on his shorts whenever he could.
In the end, a more energized Big Three for Boston is likely to make the Celtics a very tough beat in seven games. And if they can defeat Miami, no matter who among the Big Three turns out to be the biggest player of the series, the Celtics will have to thank Ainge and his sharp offseason moves for being the catalyst.
