Post by FLCeltsFan on Sept 5, 2012 10:15:54 GMT -5
What Green brings to Boston
Versatile forward can score and defend LeBron, Melo and Deng
Originally Published: September 5, 2012
By Joe Kaiser | ESPN Insider
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Jeff GreenSteve Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesVersatile Jeff Green is back after missing last season. He could play a pivotal role for the Celtics.
Look up and down every NBA roster, and you'll have a difficult time finding a better feel-good story next season than Jeff Green's return to the court for the Boston Celtics.
There are bigger stories, sure; Dwight Howard and Steve Nash heading to the Los Angeles Lakers, Ray Allen leaving the Celtics for the Miami Heat, Jeremy Lin taking his talents to the Houston Rockets. In terms of pure sentimentality, though, all pale in comparison to what Green, ranked No. 174 by ESPN.com's #NBArank panel of experts, has lived through and endured over the last nine months.
You probably know bits and pieces of it by now -- Green, a versatile 26-year-old forward acquired in a well-debated trade that sent center Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder, was forced to miss all of last season while recovering from heart surgery to repair an aortic aneurysm.
Now recovered, Green's ready to make his comeback, the beneficiary of a new $36 million deal that will keep him in Boston for four more years.
A truly remarkable story. This is where the warm and fuzzy part ends, however.
It's clear that the Celtics didn't fork over that kind of money to bring back Green just for his made-for-TV story. They did it to deepen and solidify their rotation with a sorely needed player whose versatility can help on both ends of the court.
Despite starting 260 of 289 games during his tenure with the Thunder, Green isn't expected to crack the starting five for head coach Doc Rivers next season -- not with Paul Pierce, Brandon Bass and Kevin Garnett all returning. But that should be fine with Green. Provided he's the same player he was before the heart surgery, he can still help this team contend with the Heat in the Eastern Conference.
Green on offense
Green's proven throughout his career that he can score (13.9 ppg), rebound (5.5 rpg) and shoot from distance (34 percent from 3-point range), and still carries the reputation of being a skilled facilitator from his college days at Georgetown.
This role should sound quite familiar to Boston fans; going back several years, how can anyone forget the importance super-sub James Posey had to the team's championship run of 2007-08.
That's the type of role Green can fit into, and its one that suits him well.
Look for Green to come in and spell Pierce at the 3 and Bass at the 4. He'll also give coach Rivers another scorer off the bench who, along with veteran newcomer Jason Terry, can facilitate the offense for a defensive-minded second unit that's expected to also include NBA vets Courtney Lee and Chris Wilcox, and promising first-round pick Jared Sullinger.
Carmelo Anthony, Jeff Green
Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesGreen will be called upon to defend some of the East's best scorers like Carmelo Anthony.
Green on defense
Just as important is what Green can provide the C's defensively. A combo forward with terrific size (6-foot-9, 235 pounds) and possessing above-average athleticism, Green's presence was sorely missed in June during Boston's playoff series with Miami. Remember, the Celtics managed to take it to a decisive Game 7 even with the 34-year-old Pierce and well-traveled swignman Mickael Pietrus guarding LeBron James.
Would the series have ended differently with a healthy Green to whom they could turn? That's debatable, but it's very easy to believe that Rivers would have loved having that option.
Synergy Stats indicates that while Green could never be viewed as a strong man-to-man defender in his years with Seattle and Oklahoma City. And according to BasketballValue.com, Green's teams have often been worse with him on the court. In 2009-10, OKC was 10.6 points worse. Part of that might be attributable to playing out of position while with both Seattle and OKC. That changed drastically once he was dealt to Boston.
Man Up on Defense
Year Team Avg. Poss. Avg. Points Allowed Points Per Play NBA Rank
2007-08 Seattle 7.4 6.5 .877 143
2008-09 Oklahoma City 12.5 12.1 .966 375
2009-10 Oklahoma City 12.8 11.4 .888 245
2010-11 Oklahoma City 12.4 12.3 .993 445
2010-11 Boston 7.9 6.2 .786 61
As you can see in the chart above, Green improved considerably. Did he simply regress back to career norms? Or was he finally used correctly in Boston and thrived in Rivers' defensive system during the final 26 games of the 2010-11 season?
Certainly Green's length and athleticism gives the Celtics the physicality they lacked last year and a defensive option to match against the best 3s on the Eastern Conference's top contenders; from James in Miami to the Indiana Pacers' Danny Granger, Chicago Bulls' Luol Deng, Brooklyn Nets' Gerald Wallace and the New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony, especially in smaller Celtics lineups. Again, you see that Posey-like presence coming into play.
Expectations of Green
And while we're talking Posey, that's probably a good starting point in terms of what we can expect from Green statistically in 2012-13. During the C's championship season, Posey averaged 7.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.5 apg and shot 38 percent from 3-point range in 24.6 minutes a game.
According to the SCHOENE projection system by Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus, Green's numbers are expected to be very similar next season: 25 mpg, 10.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.1 apg and 35.2 percent from 3-point range.
One area to watch is Green's aggressiveness on the offensive end of the court. Synergy Stats shows that he's been primarily a spot-up shooter and post-up player over the course of his four-year career. A shift towards more cuts to the basket and points in transition is the next step in his development.
He's already expressed a willingness to expand his game.
"I think I have to be more assertive, more aggressive in different areas, not necessarily just scoring," he told Celtics.com in August. "I just have to change my outlook and my approach of the game, and that time that I had off and seeing certain spots on the floor where I can help, really helped my mindset."
Boston might still lack that tough enforcer to go with Garnett and Bass, a role Perkins served well in his years with the team, but that might not be the recipe to knocking off the Heat anyway. Perkins was largely a non-factor (partly due to injury) against Miami in the NBA Finals, and Serge Ibaka also struggled to establish himself against the Heat.
It's very likely the Celtics will again be overreliant on the 36-year-old Garnett to shoulder the load in the frontcourt next season. Bringing back Green might not be the type of move that elevates them past the Heat, but at worst he gives Boston another big body it can count on for 20-25 solid minutes a night off the bench, as well as length and a fresh set of legs with bounce.
More than that, at 26, Green is still young enough to have upside, and continued offensive and defensive improvement is certainly possible. His versatile presence gives the Celtics a deeper, tougher team than the one that came a game away from the NBA Finals three short months ago.
