Post by FLCeltsFan on Jul 12, 2011 13:56:19 GMT -5
Could lockout help Mavericks repeat?
An abbreviated season not necessarily bad for some teams
Email
Print
Comments5
By Austin Link
TeamRankings.com
Archive
Brandon Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesBrandon Roy (center) and the Blazers are just one team that could benefit from a shortened season.
With the potential for a truncated 2011-12 NBA season looming, we delved into the data to see which teams stand to benefit the most from a short season; tomorrow we will look at which teams would be hurt the most.
Here's a list of four factors that matter, and five teams that could make the most of a chaotic year in the NBA.
Bad teams have the most to gain
Lost salaries aside, players on bad teams should all pray for a strike-shortened season. The laws of probability dictate that they have the most to gain. By playing fewer games, randomness and luck play a much larger role, compared to actual skill, in determining where teams stand at the end of the regular season.
As an example, in 2010-11 the Miami Heat were clearly a much better team than the Cleveland Cavaliers. If last season were replayed today with all the same teams and players, there would only be a miniscule chance that the Cavs would finish the season with a better record than the Heat.
However, according to Vegas lines, the Cavs had between 10 and 30 percent odds to beat the Heat in their most recent matchups last season.
In other words, while Cleveland has almost no chance of outplaying Miami over 82 games, the Cavs have a much better chance of winning an individual game head to head. Given the much shorter time frame, there's always the chance that the Cavs get hot, the Heat go cold and the obviously worse team beats the obviously better team on that one night. The same effects can manifest themselves in the playoffs, when the total number of games played also is small. Witness the 1998-99 postseason, when the eighth-seeded Knicks advanced all the way to the NBA finals.
In short, when the number of games played is smaller, there's less time to sort the good teams out from the bad. Being lucky means more and being good means less.
Consistency can be good or bad
Indeed, a strike-shortened season likely would benefit some bad teams more than others. Mathematically, the consistency of a team's play can also make a significant impact on its odds to make the playoffs.
The funny thing is that consistency can help or hurt, depending on who you are. Good teams that are consistent, for instance, stand a better chance of making the playoffs in a short season than good teams that are streaky.
Bad teams, on the other hand, are much better off being inconsistent. On the down side, with an inconsistent bad team, there's always the chance that they start off terribly and finish a shortened campaign with a horrid record. The aforementioned Cavs, for example, went 8-42 (16 percent winning percentage) over their first 50 games in 2010-11, before finishing the year 11-21 (34 percent, more than double the success rate).
However, the key fact is that there's also a greater chance that an inconsistent bad team starts out red hot, and plays above its average ability level just long enough to luck into a playoff spot before its performance begins reverting to the mean.
Offensive teams are more likely to suffer
The last time a work stoppage shortened a season, in 1998-99, NBA league statistics went haywire. Offensive efficiency was the worst in 30 years and game pace was the slowest in the shot-clock era. In addition, free throw, 2-point field goal and 3-point field goal percentage all dropped.
As it turns out, offensive efficiency from the prior season was a statistically significant predictor of decreased offensive ability in 1998-99, even with the Bulls (who had lost Michael Jordan) withheld from our study.
So the teams that had very good offenses before the last strike tended to suffer the most during the strike-shortened year. If the same trend carries over to this season, defensive teams stand to benefit the most.
Injuries have less time to occur
Let's call this one the "Greg Oden factor," and use the beat-up young center as an example. Based on his history of suffering three season-ending injuries in a total of 82 games played, Oden appears to have just about a 5 percent chance of getting through an 82-game season healthy.
That's not good news, of course, for the Blazers.
With just a 50-game season, though, the chance that Oden actually makes it through the season healthy increases, conservatively, to 16 percent or so. And a healthy Oden might be just enough to push the Blazers into contender territory.
Although many factors would affect a short season, the four listed above at least have a statistical or mathematical basis for their projected impact. With that in mind, here are five teams we think would likely benefit from a strike-shortened season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors play a style that leads to more inconsistency than almost any other team in the league. Going for steals and tossing up 3s can backfire easily, but that strategy can also propel an inferior basketball team to brief spurts of dominant performance, as VCU demonstrated in this year's March Madness.
In a short season, the Warriors' high-risk game plan could be disastrous, but it also could give guard Stephen Curry & Co. their first playoff berth since 2007.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers are a solid team that challenged the eventual champion Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 playoffs. Yet they haven't yet lived up to the promise they showed a few years ago, largely because of injury trouble. There's no guarantee that the Blazers will get both Oden and Brandon Roy fully healthy, but if they do, they could become an elite team.
Portland was also home to probably the best historical analogy here: Bill Walton.
Walton got healthy for just under two seasons, and gave the Blazers an NBA championship during that time. Unfortunately his healthy stint ended 60 games into his second season, taking the Blazers' hopes of a repeat with it. In a shorter season, though, 60 games might have been enough for Walton to win Portland another ring.
Orlando Magic
Orlando has two major benefits from the factors listed above. First, the Magic's penchant for 3-pointers leads to a high degree of inconsistency. While streaky 3-point shooting can result in a playoff loss to an underdog like the Atlanta Hawks, a few lucky 3-pointers can also win a team more games than expected. In an 82-game season, a couple of extra lucky wins are nice; in a 50-game season they could make all the difference.
The Magic's biggest benefit, though, should be their reliance on defense. With the extra time off, shooters after the last strike proved to be rusty and not up to their usual standards. If the ever-reliable Dwight Howard is still their go-to guy, the Magic appear to be in good shape.
Boston Celtics
Like Orlando, the Celtics benefit from having a strong defense. The second-best defense in the league last year has performed well for multiple straight seasons and should continue to do so even in a shortened season.
A short season could also give the weary bodies of Boston's Big Three a much-needed break. If the Celtics are going to make another championship run, they need all their players to be healthy. What does 30 fewer games mean? More than 1,000 minutes of game play where Kevin Garnett can't get hurt.
Dallas Mavericks
Jason Kidd himself pointed out that the reigning world champions could benefit from the extra rest a shorter season would provide, but he missed out on what might be the Mavs' most significant advantage: their consistency.
Dallas was the second most consistent team in the NBA last year. Unlike a more volatile contender like the Lakers, who are more likely to do either extremely well or extremely poorly in a truncated season, consistent Dallas stands a better chance of finishing a short season right around where its talent level dictates it should. And if Mark Cuban keeps the Mavs' core together, that means near the top.
Austin Link analyzes data and writes for TeamRankings.com, which also produces a range of data-driven NBA content and contributes other predictive-oriented content for Insider.
An abbreviated season not necessarily bad for some teams
Comments5
By Austin Link
TeamRankings.com
Archive
Brandon Sam Forencich/NBAE/Getty ImagesBrandon Roy (center) and the Blazers are just one team that could benefit from a shortened season.
With the potential for a truncated 2011-12 NBA season looming, we delved into the data to see which teams stand to benefit the most from a short season; tomorrow we will look at which teams would be hurt the most.
Here's a list of four factors that matter, and five teams that could make the most of a chaotic year in the NBA.
Bad teams have the most to gain
Lost salaries aside, players on bad teams should all pray for a strike-shortened season. The laws of probability dictate that they have the most to gain. By playing fewer games, randomness and luck play a much larger role, compared to actual skill, in determining where teams stand at the end of the regular season.
As an example, in 2010-11 the Miami Heat were clearly a much better team than the Cleveland Cavaliers. If last season were replayed today with all the same teams and players, there would only be a miniscule chance that the Cavs would finish the season with a better record than the Heat.
However, according to Vegas lines, the Cavs had between 10 and 30 percent odds to beat the Heat in their most recent matchups last season.
In other words, while Cleveland has almost no chance of outplaying Miami over 82 games, the Cavs have a much better chance of winning an individual game head to head. Given the much shorter time frame, there's always the chance that the Cavs get hot, the Heat go cold and the obviously worse team beats the obviously better team on that one night. The same effects can manifest themselves in the playoffs, when the total number of games played also is small. Witness the 1998-99 postseason, when the eighth-seeded Knicks advanced all the way to the NBA finals.
In short, when the number of games played is smaller, there's less time to sort the good teams out from the bad. Being lucky means more and being good means less.
Consistency can be good or bad
Indeed, a strike-shortened season likely would benefit some bad teams more than others. Mathematically, the consistency of a team's play can also make a significant impact on its odds to make the playoffs.
The funny thing is that consistency can help or hurt, depending on who you are. Good teams that are consistent, for instance, stand a better chance of making the playoffs in a short season than good teams that are streaky.
Bad teams, on the other hand, are much better off being inconsistent. On the down side, with an inconsistent bad team, there's always the chance that they start off terribly and finish a shortened campaign with a horrid record. The aforementioned Cavs, for example, went 8-42 (16 percent winning percentage) over their first 50 games in 2010-11, before finishing the year 11-21 (34 percent, more than double the success rate).
However, the key fact is that there's also a greater chance that an inconsistent bad team starts out red hot, and plays above its average ability level just long enough to luck into a playoff spot before its performance begins reverting to the mean.
Offensive teams are more likely to suffer
The last time a work stoppage shortened a season, in 1998-99, NBA league statistics went haywire. Offensive efficiency was the worst in 30 years and game pace was the slowest in the shot-clock era. In addition, free throw, 2-point field goal and 3-point field goal percentage all dropped.
As it turns out, offensive efficiency from the prior season was a statistically significant predictor of decreased offensive ability in 1998-99, even with the Bulls (who had lost Michael Jordan) withheld from our study.
So the teams that had very good offenses before the last strike tended to suffer the most during the strike-shortened year. If the same trend carries over to this season, defensive teams stand to benefit the most.
Injuries have less time to occur
Let's call this one the "Greg Oden factor," and use the beat-up young center as an example. Based on his history of suffering three season-ending injuries in a total of 82 games played, Oden appears to have just about a 5 percent chance of getting through an 82-game season healthy.
That's not good news, of course, for the Blazers.
With just a 50-game season, though, the chance that Oden actually makes it through the season healthy increases, conservatively, to 16 percent or so. And a healthy Oden might be just enough to push the Blazers into contender territory.
Although many factors would affect a short season, the four listed above at least have a statistical or mathematical basis for their projected impact. With that in mind, here are five teams we think would likely benefit from a strike-shortened season.
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors play a style that leads to more inconsistency than almost any other team in the league. Going for steals and tossing up 3s can backfire easily, but that strategy can also propel an inferior basketball team to brief spurts of dominant performance, as VCU demonstrated in this year's March Madness.
In a short season, the Warriors' high-risk game plan could be disastrous, but it also could give guard Stephen Curry & Co. their first playoff berth since 2007.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Trail Blazers are a solid team that challenged the eventual champion Mavericks in the first round of the 2011 playoffs. Yet they haven't yet lived up to the promise they showed a few years ago, largely because of injury trouble. There's no guarantee that the Blazers will get both Oden and Brandon Roy fully healthy, but if they do, they could become an elite team.
Portland was also home to probably the best historical analogy here: Bill Walton.
Walton got healthy for just under two seasons, and gave the Blazers an NBA championship during that time. Unfortunately his healthy stint ended 60 games into his second season, taking the Blazers' hopes of a repeat with it. In a shorter season, though, 60 games might have been enough for Walton to win Portland another ring.
Orlando Magic
Orlando has two major benefits from the factors listed above. First, the Magic's penchant for 3-pointers leads to a high degree of inconsistency. While streaky 3-point shooting can result in a playoff loss to an underdog like the Atlanta Hawks, a few lucky 3-pointers can also win a team more games than expected. In an 82-game season, a couple of extra lucky wins are nice; in a 50-game season they could make all the difference.
The Magic's biggest benefit, though, should be their reliance on defense. With the extra time off, shooters after the last strike proved to be rusty and not up to their usual standards. If the ever-reliable Dwight Howard is still their go-to guy, the Magic appear to be in good shape.
Boston Celtics
Like Orlando, the Celtics benefit from having a strong defense. The second-best defense in the league last year has performed well for multiple straight seasons and should continue to do so even in a shortened season.
A short season could also give the weary bodies of Boston's Big Three a much-needed break. If the Celtics are going to make another championship run, they need all their players to be healthy. What does 30 fewer games mean? More than 1,000 minutes of game play where Kevin Garnett can't get hurt.
Dallas Mavericks
Jason Kidd himself pointed out that the reigning world champions could benefit from the extra rest a shorter season would provide, but he missed out on what might be the Mavs' most significant advantage: their consistency.
Dallas was the second most consistent team in the NBA last year. Unlike a more volatile contender like the Lakers, who are more likely to do either extremely well or extremely poorly in a truncated season, consistent Dallas stands a better chance of finishing a short season right around where its talent level dictates it should. And if Mark Cuban keeps the Mavs' core together, that means near the top.
Austin Link analyzes data and writes for TeamRankings.com, which also produces a range of data-driven NBA content and contributes other predictive-oriented content for Insider.
