Post by FLCeltsFan on Apr 26, 2011 19:03:10 GMT -5
The Celtics are in trouble
Boston could have a tough time advancing past second round, while Bulls look good
By Austin Link
TeamRankings.com
Archive
Ray AllenElsa/Getty ImagesRay Allen and Boston shot the lights out against the Knicks, but that's unlikely to continue in Round 2.
The first round isn't over yet, but several trends from the past have failed to hold so far. The Orlando Magic and Denver Nuggets, teams that appeared well-positioned for playoff overperformance (check out our East and West first-round trends), are clinging to life by a thread. Meanwhile, the New York Knicks' favorable pace of play couldn't help generate even a single win against the Boston Celtics.
In the grand scheme of things, one playoff round doesn't render irrelevant seven years worth of statistical correlation. However, it does provide a timely reminder of how the potential impact of a few key stats can easily be marginalized or negated entirely by randomness and other factors over four or five games.
Looking forward to the likely matchups in the conference semifinals, here's how some of the previous trends we found using data from TeamRankings.com could impact teams:
Despite an opening sweep, Boston is still vulnerable
With the only sweep of the first round, Boston made a statement against New York, but this season's Celtics still seem poorly equipped to make a deep playoff run. Beyond lacking a strong center and playing slowly, as we discussed previously, the Celtics had the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league this year. Historically, that would mark them as possible playoff underperformers.
Admittedly, the C's managed to buck these same trends in 2010, but unlike Kevin Garnett did last year, neither Shaquille O'Neal nor Jermaine O'Neal seems likely to step up. Instead, the Celtics made it through the first round with 47 percent 3-point shooting, far above their regular-season average (and possibly a product of the Knicks' poor defense). Ray Allen showed in last year's NBA Finals that one good stretch of shooting doesn't necessarily carry over to the next game or series. In fact, previous trends suggest Boston could play more than two points worse than expected, meaning that it might take another stroke of luck from deep to get past the Miami Heat in Round 2 (assuming LeBron James & Co. advance past the Philadelphia 76ers).
The Kendrick Perkins trade has made a big difference for the Thunder
Perkins' playoff statistics so far against Denver are underwhelming -- and that's putting it kindly. He's put up just 4 points per game and has an atrocious 4.91 PER. On the other side, Denver's Nene Hilario has improved on his in-season stats by posting an average of 16 points and 9 rebounds per game in the opening series. Perkins may not appear to being doing much besides starting fights, but the trade for him was successful in another key area: clearing room for Serge Ibaka.
Ibaka has a PER of over 21 and has played better than what Jeff Green could have possibly provided. With Ibaka and Perkins, the Thunder have been 9.5 rebounds per game better than the Nuggets, far above their plus-2.2 regular-season average rebounding margin. Despite his 2011 playoff stats so far, Perkins provides promise of a bright future for the Thunder. Assuming Perk returns to form, in the long run, Oklahoma City projects almost a full point better in the playoffs than it was during the regular season.
Memphis may be poised for a deep run
If the Thunder advance, they'll likely take on an unexpectedly tough opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, who currently have about 80 percent odds to put away the San Antonio Spurs. Memphis may be the No. 8 seed, but their 10th-place standing in the TeamRankings.com predictive power ratings indicates they are worthy of about a No. 5 seed. Perhaps most impressively, the Grizzlies' fine play of late -- including their 18-point stomping of San Antonio on Monday night -- has come with superstar Rudy Gay sidelined.
On top of being underrated, the Grizzlies' dominance down low appears to suit the playoffs well. If previous trends hold, the Grizz would play almost 1.2 points better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. That sort of improvement would tie them with the Dallas Mavericks for the fifth spot in our power ratings, making Zach Randolph & Co. a formidable team for anyone to face. In addition, Memphis was an underdog three times against the Thunder this year, and the Grizzlies pulled off two upsets en route to a 3-1 overall season record against OKC.
The Orlando Magic will be dangerous if they survive the first round
Orlando was expected to thrive against a supposedly inferior opponent. Instead, despite Dwight Howard's best efforts, the Magic are down 3-1 and on the brink of elimination. The deficit can largely be attributed to Orlando's suddenly terrible 3-point shooting, the worst in the playoffs at just 22 percent.
Based off of their regular-season shooting prowess, there was only about a 1-in-300 chance of the Magic shooting that poorly from 3-point land so far. Put another way, if Orlando had simply matched its regular-season long-ball form so far, it would be 42 points better in a series in which its overall scoring margin is only minus-11 points across all four games to date.
If they can turn the shooting around and Howard continues to exert his influence, the Magic will not only get through the first round but could even challenge the Chicago Bulls in the second. Right now, we give the Magic only about 25 percent odds of a comeback, so the chances that they'll get the opportunity to face the Bulls aren't good.
The Bulls and Lakers are rightfully the favorites
The Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers may seem like vastly different teams. One team barely made the playoffs last year and is led by a first-year coach and fresh-faced star. The other team is a two-time defending champion led by the most successful coach of all-time and a veteran superstar.
When it comes to statistics that correlate with postseason success, though, Chicago and L.A. are strikingly similar. Both play slightly slower than average. Both have good but injury-prone centers with average Win Share statistics. Both posted a high team offensive rebounding rate this year. Consequently, in the long term, both are likely to play better in the postseason (.65 points for the Lakers, .63 for the Bulls).
Clearly, neither of these teams has played as well as expected so far, but both of them should still advance. Assuming everyone is healthy, Chicago, which is up 3-1 on the Indiana Pacers, has a better than 95 percent chance of advancing. L.A. still has over 70 percent win odds, tied 2-2 with the New Orleans Hornets. If both teams survive and the Spurs lose, the Bulls versus the Lakers would officially become our most likely 2011 NBA Finals matchup.
Austin Link analyzes data and writes for TeamRankings.com, which also produces a range of data-driven NBA playoffs predictions and contributes other predictive-oriented content for Insider.
Boston could have a tough time advancing past second round, while Bulls look good
By Austin Link
TeamRankings.com
Archive
Ray AllenElsa/Getty ImagesRay Allen and Boston shot the lights out against the Knicks, but that's unlikely to continue in Round 2.
The first round isn't over yet, but several trends from the past have failed to hold so far. The Orlando Magic and Denver Nuggets, teams that appeared well-positioned for playoff overperformance (check out our East and West first-round trends), are clinging to life by a thread. Meanwhile, the New York Knicks' favorable pace of play couldn't help generate even a single win against the Boston Celtics.
In the grand scheme of things, one playoff round doesn't render irrelevant seven years worth of statistical correlation. However, it does provide a timely reminder of how the potential impact of a few key stats can easily be marginalized or negated entirely by randomness and other factors over four or five games.
Looking forward to the likely matchups in the conference semifinals, here's how some of the previous trends we found using data from TeamRankings.com could impact teams:
Despite an opening sweep, Boston is still vulnerable
With the only sweep of the first round, Boston made a statement against New York, but this season's Celtics still seem poorly equipped to make a deep playoff run. Beyond lacking a strong center and playing slowly, as we discussed previously, the Celtics had the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league this year. Historically, that would mark them as possible playoff underperformers.
Admittedly, the C's managed to buck these same trends in 2010, but unlike Kevin Garnett did last year, neither Shaquille O'Neal nor Jermaine O'Neal seems likely to step up. Instead, the Celtics made it through the first round with 47 percent 3-point shooting, far above their regular-season average (and possibly a product of the Knicks' poor defense). Ray Allen showed in last year's NBA Finals that one good stretch of shooting doesn't necessarily carry over to the next game or series. In fact, previous trends suggest Boston could play more than two points worse than expected, meaning that it might take another stroke of luck from deep to get past the Miami Heat in Round 2 (assuming LeBron James & Co. advance past the Philadelphia 76ers).
The Kendrick Perkins trade has made a big difference for the Thunder
Perkins' playoff statistics so far against Denver are underwhelming -- and that's putting it kindly. He's put up just 4 points per game and has an atrocious 4.91 PER. On the other side, Denver's Nene Hilario has improved on his in-season stats by posting an average of 16 points and 9 rebounds per game in the opening series. Perkins may not appear to being doing much besides starting fights, but the trade for him was successful in another key area: clearing room for Serge Ibaka.
Ibaka has a PER of over 21 and has played better than what Jeff Green could have possibly provided. With Ibaka and Perkins, the Thunder have been 9.5 rebounds per game better than the Nuggets, far above their plus-2.2 regular-season average rebounding margin. Despite his 2011 playoff stats so far, Perkins provides promise of a bright future for the Thunder. Assuming Perk returns to form, in the long run, Oklahoma City projects almost a full point better in the playoffs than it was during the regular season.
Memphis may be poised for a deep run
If the Thunder advance, they'll likely take on an unexpectedly tough opponent in the Memphis Grizzlies, who currently have about 80 percent odds to put away the San Antonio Spurs. Memphis may be the No. 8 seed, but their 10th-place standing in the TeamRankings.com predictive power ratings indicates they are worthy of about a No. 5 seed. Perhaps most impressively, the Grizzlies' fine play of late -- including their 18-point stomping of San Antonio on Monday night -- has come with superstar Rudy Gay sidelined.
On top of being underrated, the Grizzlies' dominance down low appears to suit the playoffs well. If previous trends hold, the Grizz would play almost 1.2 points better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. That sort of improvement would tie them with the Dallas Mavericks for the fifth spot in our power ratings, making Zach Randolph & Co. a formidable team for anyone to face. In addition, Memphis was an underdog three times against the Thunder this year, and the Grizzlies pulled off two upsets en route to a 3-1 overall season record against OKC.
The Orlando Magic will be dangerous if they survive the first round
Orlando was expected to thrive against a supposedly inferior opponent. Instead, despite Dwight Howard's best efforts, the Magic are down 3-1 and on the brink of elimination. The deficit can largely be attributed to Orlando's suddenly terrible 3-point shooting, the worst in the playoffs at just 22 percent.
Based off of their regular-season shooting prowess, there was only about a 1-in-300 chance of the Magic shooting that poorly from 3-point land so far. Put another way, if Orlando had simply matched its regular-season long-ball form so far, it would be 42 points better in a series in which its overall scoring margin is only minus-11 points across all four games to date.
If they can turn the shooting around and Howard continues to exert his influence, the Magic will not only get through the first round but could even challenge the Chicago Bulls in the second. Right now, we give the Magic only about 25 percent odds of a comeback, so the chances that they'll get the opportunity to face the Bulls aren't good.
The Bulls and Lakers are rightfully the favorites
The Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers may seem like vastly different teams. One team barely made the playoffs last year and is led by a first-year coach and fresh-faced star. The other team is a two-time defending champion led by the most successful coach of all-time and a veteran superstar.
When it comes to statistics that correlate with postseason success, though, Chicago and L.A. are strikingly similar. Both play slightly slower than average. Both have good but injury-prone centers with average Win Share statistics. Both posted a high team offensive rebounding rate this year. Consequently, in the long term, both are likely to play better in the postseason (.65 points for the Lakers, .63 for the Bulls).
Clearly, neither of these teams has played as well as expected so far, but both of them should still advance. Assuming everyone is healthy, Chicago, which is up 3-1 on the Indiana Pacers, has a better than 95 percent chance of advancing. L.A. still has over 70 percent win odds, tied 2-2 with the New Orleans Hornets. If both teams survive and the Spurs lose, the Bulls versus the Lakers would officially become our most likely 2011 NBA Finals matchup.
Austin Link analyzes data and writes for TeamRankings.com, which also produces a range of data-driven NBA playoffs predictions and contributes other predictive-oriented content for Insider.
