Post by FLCeltsFan on Dec 30, 2010 21:03:57 GMT -5
KG's injury not only reason for concern
Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Kevin GarnettElsa/Getty ImagesEven with a healthy Garnett, it is going to be difficult for the Celtics to keep up their hot shooting pace.
Kevin Garnett's health is obviously first and foremost on the minds of Boston Celtics fans right now. It goes without saying that a long-term injury to the superstar power forward would be devastating to the Celtics' title hopes.
But a more insidious foe also might be a factor for them in the final two-thirds of the season: the law of averages. Statistically, it will be very difficult for Boston to maintain its offensive performance, even allowing for the fact that it has been short-handed on several nights.
It's an odd conclusion to reach because Boston isn't primarily an offensive team; the Celtics are only 10th in offensive efficiency. It's their top-ranked defense that has carried the mail for them in their torrid 24-6 start.
Nonetheless, the offense perhaps bears greater scrutiny as we test whether the Celtics' play can continue throughout the season's final 52 games because, in one respect, Boston has been flukishly amazing.
Let's start at the top. The Celtics are one of the league's most unusual offensive teams: They take fewer shots than nearly everyone else, and they make a higher percentage of them than everyone else. In fact, their field goal percentage of 50.2 is more than 2 percentage points higher than that of any other team this season; what's more, it's the second-best shooting percentage of the past decade.
On the flip side, although the Celtics have lowered the obscenely high turnover rate of seasons past, their lack of second shots remains phenomenal. Despite enviable size, Boston ranks last in offensive rebound rate. The Celtics claim only 21.0 percent of their missed shots, and, as a result, only the woebegone Charlotte Bobcats attempt fewer shots per possessions. (I define "shots" here to include free throw attempts.)
That's just par for the course so far; Boston was last in the NBA in shots per possession last season.
But the other part of the equation is that Boston is not only first in overall shooting percentage, as noted, but also first in true shooting percentage at 57.3, beating out even the likes of the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks, both of which are known for their propensity to launch 3-pointers (which improve their true shooting percentage).
Delve a little deeper, and it gets more surprising. Boston doesn't get a huge bump from 3-pointers or free throws; the Celtics just are amazingly accurate inside the arc. The Celtics' 52.9 percent shooting on 2-pointers dwarfs the league average of 48.2 percent and is a major improvement even on their league-leading performance of last season.
In 2009-10, despite what was largely seen as a disappointing regular season, Boston finished 3.1 percentage points ahead of the league average in 2-point shooting. This season's performance, at 4.7 points ahead, is an even greater outlier.
If you're wondering, that continued even without Garnett on Wednesday night: Boston hit 52.8 percent of its 2s against the Pistons -- but lost to Detroit because it couldn't miss.
(By the way, for those of you Celtics fans bewildered by Tracy McGrady's performance Wednesday night, he has been showing signs of re-emergence lately. In some games, including the one Wednesday night or a week ago against Toronto, he's been brilliant, almost like the T-Mac of old. In others, as against Charlotte, he's seemed dead-legged. Methinks the knees aren't there for him every night, but when they are, he can still bring it.)
OK, so they make a lot of 2s. What's the big deal?
It's this: Two-point field goal percentage is one of the flukiest stats in basketball. One can see huge random variances in this stat from month to month and even from year to year, and they aren't necessarily meaningful.
Applying it to Boston's case, it's easy to be suspicious of the Celts' ability to keep shooting so well. Boston's top 2-point shooter from last season, Kendrick Perkins, hasn't played a game this season, yet the Celtics have dramatically increased their advantage on the rest of the league in this category. Although Shaquille O'Neal's addition has been very helpful in this area, Perkins actually shot better on 2s than Shaq did last season. Now O'Neal has upped his percentage to career-high levels in green.
He's not the only one. Paul Pierce, Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Garnett and Rajon Rondo all have increased their 2-point percentages from last season, which is very odd to see this early in the season. Leaguewide, shooting percentages normally gently rise as the season goes on, which means most players will be slightly below their career norms in late December. But of the Celtics' seven most frequent shooters, only Ray Allen is making 2s at a lower clip than last season.
The two most suspect marks are those of Pierce and Davis. They're second and third on the team, respectively, in 2-point attempts, and both are converting at rates that blow away their career bests. Pierce has made half his 2-point shots in a season just once, when he made 50.3 percent in 2005-06. For his career, he has made 47.2 percent of his 2-point attempts. But this season, at age 33, he's at 53.2 percent.
Similarly, Davis entered the season a 45.3 percent career marksman on 2s and has made 48.3 percent so far this season. You can go right on down the line with the other Boston regulars, but those two are the greatest extremes.
Breaking it down on a team level, what's particularly striking is how much more often the Celtics convert at the rim. Boston is making 69.3 percent of its shots there, according to Hoopdata.com. Last season, it made only 64.4 percent.
It's not just that Boston hasn't been at 69 percent before, it's that nobody else has, either. No team has made more than 67 percent at the rim in the past five seasons. In fact, the only teams to top 65 percent are last season's Cleveland Cavaliers and the Phoenix Suns in the four previous seasons. Those teams, obviously, had historically great finishers in LeBron James and Amare Stoudemire. The Celtics do not, which makes me suspicious of their ability to end up in the high 60s.
Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps it's no fluke and there's a good reason the Celtics are defying the long-term trends. Nonetheless, trying to find such a reason seems to me a grasp for straws. One might argue it's the brilliant passing of Rondo, but he was on the team last season, and besides, he missed several games this season. One might say it's O'Neal, except he has missed a ton of time, too. One could argue that subtracting Rasheed Wallace helps, except he didn't shoot that many 2s last season and didn't shoot them that badly (51.1 percent). And one might say the veteran Celtics are simply taking advantage of their experience, except that older players typically see their 2-point percentage decline.
So we're left to conclude that Boston is unlikely to keep shooting 2s so phenomenally. Which takes us to the next question: How great an impact are we talking about?
If, in its final 52 games, Boston shoots something more like 64 percent at the rim instead of 69 percent, that alone will subtract about 1.25 made shots a game, or 2.5 points. The Celtics will get back a few baskets on second shots, but because their offensive rebound rate is so poor, they'll end up with only about 0.3 points off those misses.
So we end up knocking 2.2 points a game off their offensive output. The good news is that the Celtics are still a heck of a team without those points. Right now, they outscore opponents by 8.2 points per game, and dropping to 6.0 a game still would leave them as the second-best team in the East.
Where it becomes more interesting is vis-à-vis the Miami Heat and the race for home-court advantage in the East.
Boston still leads Miami by three games in the loss column and has a good chance of owning the tiebreaker thanks to two early-season victories over the Heat. But the current playoff odds, which are based on past performance and do not factor in a potential decline in the Celtics' 2-point shooting, see the teams tying with 61 victories each. If Boston can't keep up its phenomenal short-range shooting percentage, it's going to fall short of that mark, which likely would end up costing the Celtics home-court advantage.
All of that pales, of course, in comparison to the worries over Garnett's calf this morning. But the hot shooting of the C's is a subplot that warrants tracking as the season goes on. Boston is on pace to post historically great 2-point shooting results, particularly from short range, and that's been a major factor in its blistering start. But history tells us not to trust it.
Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Kevin GarnettElsa/Getty ImagesEven with a healthy Garnett, it is going to be difficult for the Celtics to keep up their hot shooting pace.
Kevin Garnett's health is obviously first and foremost on the minds of Boston Celtics fans right now. It goes without saying that a long-term injury to the superstar power forward would be devastating to the Celtics' title hopes.
But a more insidious foe also might be a factor for them in the final two-thirds of the season: the law of averages. Statistically, it will be very difficult for Boston to maintain its offensive performance, even allowing for the fact that it has been short-handed on several nights.
It's an odd conclusion to reach because Boston isn't primarily an offensive team; the Celtics are only 10th in offensive efficiency. It's their top-ranked defense that has carried the mail for them in their torrid 24-6 start.
Nonetheless, the offense perhaps bears greater scrutiny as we test whether the Celtics' play can continue throughout the season's final 52 games because, in one respect, Boston has been flukishly amazing.
Let's start at the top. The Celtics are one of the league's most unusual offensive teams: They take fewer shots than nearly everyone else, and they make a higher percentage of them than everyone else. In fact, their field goal percentage of 50.2 is more than 2 percentage points higher than that of any other team this season; what's more, it's the second-best shooting percentage of the past decade.
On the flip side, although the Celtics have lowered the obscenely high turnover rate of seasons past, their lack of second shots remains phenomenal. Despite enviable size, Boston ranks last in offensive rebound rate. The Celtics claim only 21.0 percent of their missed shots, and, as a result, only the woebegone Charlotte Bobcats attempt fewer shots per possessions. (I define "shots" here to include free throw attempts.)
That's just par for the course so far; Boston was last in the NBA in shots per possession last season.
But the other part of the equation is that Boston is not only first in overall shooting percentage, as noted, but also first in true shooting percentage at 57.3, beating out even the likes of the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks, both of which are known for their propensity to launch 3-pointers (which improve their true shooting percentage).
Delve a little deeper, and it gets more surprising. Boston doesn't get a huge bump from 3-pointers or free throws; the Celtics just are amazingly accurate inside the arc. The Celtics' 52.9 percent shooting on 2-pointers dwarfs the league average of 48.2 percent and is a major improvement even on their league-leading performance of last season.
In 2009-10, despite what was largely seen as a disappointing regular season, Boston finished 3.1 percentage points ahead of the league average in 2-point shooting. This season's performance, at 4.7 points ahead, is an even greater outlier.
If you're wondering, that continued even without Garnett on Wednesday night: Boston hit 52.8 percent of its 2s against the Pistons -- but lost to Detroit because it couldn't miss.
(By the way, for those of you Celtics fans bewildered by Tracy McGrady's performance Wednesday night, he has been showing signs of re-emergence lately. In some games, including the one Wednesday night or a week ago against Toronto, he's been brilliant, almost like the T-Mac of old. In others, as against Charlotte, he's seemed dead-legged. Methinks the knees aren't there for him every night, but when they are, he can still bring it.)
OK, so they make a lot of 2s. What's the big deal?
It's this: Two-point field goal percentage is one of the flukiest stats in basketball. One can see huge random variances in this stat from month to month and even from year to year, and they aren't necessarily meaningful.
Applying it to Boston's case, it's easy to be suspicious of the Celts' ability to keep shooting so well. Boston's top 2-point shooter from last season, Kendrick Perkins, hasn't played a game this season, yet the Celtics have dramatically increased their advantage on the rest of the league in this category. Although Shaquille O'Neal's addition has been very helpful in this area, Perkins actually shot better on 2s than Shaq did last season. Now O'Neal has upped his percentage to career-high levels in green.
He's not the only one. Paul Pierce, Glen Davis, Nate Robinson, Garnett and Rajon Rondo all have increased their 2-point percentages from last season, which is very odd to see this early in the season. Leaguewide, shooting percentages normally gently rise as the season goes on, which means most players will be slightly below their career norms in late December. But of the Celtics' seven most frequent shooters, only Ray Allen is making 2s at a lower clip than last season.
The two most suspect marks are those of Pierce and Davis. They're second and third on the team, respectively, in 2-point attempts, and both are converting at rates that blow away their career bests. Pierce has made half his 2-point shots in a season just once, when he made 50.3 percent in 2005-06. For his career, he has made 47.2 percent of his 2-point attempts. But this season, at age 33, he's at 53.2 percent.
Similarly, Davis entered the season a 45.3 percent career marksman on 2s and has made 48.3 percent so far this season. You can go right on down the line with the other Boston regulars, but those two are the greatest extremes.
Breaking it down on a team level, what's particularly striking is how much more often the Celtics convert at the rim. Boston is making 69.3 percent of its shots there, according to Hoopdata.com. Last season, it made only 64.4 percent.
It's not just that Boston hasn't been at 69 percent before, it's that nobody else has, either. No team has made more than 67 percent at the rim in the past five seasons. In fact, the only teams to top 65 percent are last season's Cleveland Cavaliers and the Phoenix Suns in the four previous seasons. Those teams, obviously, had historically great finishers in LeBron James and Amare Stoudemire. The Celtics do not, which makes me suspicious of their ability to end up in the high 60s.
Maybe I'm wrong. Perhaps it's no fluke and there's a good reason the Celtics are defying the long-term trends. Nonetheless, trying to find such a reason seems to me a grasp for straws. One might argue it's the brilliant passing of Rondo, but he was on the team last season, and besides, he missed several games this season. One might say it's O'Neal, except he has missed a ton of time, too. One could argue that subtracting Rasheed Wallace helps, except he didn't shoot that many 2s last season and didn't shoot them that badly (51.1 percent). And one might say the veteran Celtics are simply taking advantage of their experience, except that older players typically see their 2-point percentage decline.
So we're left to conclude that Boston is unlikely to keep shooting 2s so phenomenally. Which takes us to the next question: How great an impact are we talking about?
If, in its final 52 games, Boston shoots something more like 64 percent at the rim instead of 69 percent, that alone will subtract about 1.25 made shots a game, or 2.5 points. The Celtics will get back a few baskets on second shots, but because their offensive rebound rate is so poor, they'll end up with only about 0.3 points off those misses.
So we end up knocking 2.2 points a game off their offensive output. The good news is that the Celtics are still a heck of a team without those points. Right now, they outscore opponents by 8.2 points per game, and dropping to 6.0 a game still would leave them as the second-best team in the East.
Where it becomes more interesting is vis-à-vis the Miami Heat and the race for home-court advantage in the East.
Boston still leads Miami by three games in the loss column and has a good chance of owning the tiebreaker thanks to two early-season victories over the Heat. But the current playoff odds, which are based on past performance and do not factor in a potential decline in the Celtics' 2-point shooting, see the teams tying with 61 victories each. If Boston can't keep up its phenomenal short-range shooting percentage, it's going to fall short of that mark, which likely would end up costing the Celtics home-court advantage.
All of that pales, of course, in comparison to the worries over Garnett's calf this morning. But the hot shooting of the C's is a subplot that warrants tracking as the season goes on. Boston is on pace to post historically great 2-point shooting results, particularly from short range, and that's been a major factor in its blistering start. But history tells us not to trust it.
