Post by FLCeltsFan on Nov 23, 2010 19:06:47 GMT -5
What to make of struggling veterans?
PER Diem: Nov. 23, 2010
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By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images
Chauncey Billups hasn't looked like himself this season. And it's not 'cause of the bandage on his nose.
When do we start worrying?
That question looms over every team dealing with a struggling veteran player. On the one hand, knowing a player's track record makes it easy to dismiss a rough November as a short-term fluke. On the other, it's also easy to look at the player's birth certificate, ponder the inevitable facts of how age impacts a typical NBA career, and wonder if a bad dozen games will spiral into a bad 82.
Take Chauncey Billups, for instance. His play this season has been a virtual nonstory with all the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors, but if Melo goes, Billups might be the next Nuggets star available. Problem is, a team will need a strong stomach to trade for Billups if his play doesn't improve considerably.
Billups is shooting only 34.4 percent, and uncharacteristically he is turning the ball over on 14.1 percent of his possessions. His PER of 13.15 is his lowest in more than a decade -- back during his last stint with the Nuggets -- and his normally stellar 3-point stroke is at 31.6 percent. Maybe he's worn out from playing for Team USA, maybe he's in a shooting slump that he'll snap right out of ... or maybe he's 34, and doing what 34-year-olds typically do. That's one of the big questions in Denver, especially after the Nuggets, playing without Billups, didn't skip a beat in beating Golden State on the road Monday night.
But the Nuggets (and their potential trade partners) aren't the only ones pondering the struggles of veteran players four weeks into the season. Several teams face tough decisions in the coming weeks and months if their esteemed vets can't improve on underwhelming November efforts. In addition to Mr. Big Shot, here are a dozen players who merit closer attention:
Lewis
Rashard Lewis, Orlando
Given that Lewis had a tough regular season in 2009-10, the Magic have to be deeply concerned about his dwindling productivity so far this season. Instead of a bounce-back year, he's having a bounce-further-down year. And it's tough to blame it on changes in Orlando's system, when fellow Magic power forwards Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson are thriving offensively in the same environment.
Not Lewis. His miserable 10.99 PER is the biggest reason the Magic have underwhelmed thus far offensively (a lesser reason is the next name on our list), while his 14.6 points per 40 minutes are his least since he was a teenage rookie in Seattle. His 41.6 percent shooting from the floor is another unexpected low, but what's truly pathetic is that he's earned only 14 free throw attempts in 13 games.
Redick
J.J. Redick, Orlando
Unlike Lewis, Redick had a breakout 2009-10. That hasn't helped him any in 2010-11. After signing a three-year, $20 million offer sheet with Chicago that the Magic matched, he has fallen miles short of expectations.
Redick's trademark shooting touch has deserted him this November, as he has made just 4 of 28 3-point attempts (14.3 percent). The rest of his game hasn't been much better -- he is shooting 29.8 percent overall with one of the worst rebound rates in captivity, and his 4.45 PER is the league's worst by a player with at least 200 minutes played. (In a very bad sign for the Magic, Redick's closest competition for this honor is teammate Chris Duhon.)
Ariza
Trevor Ariza, New Orleans
Ariza's addition has undoubtedly infused the Hornets with some athleticism that has proved valuable at the defensive end, but offensively he's had the same problem that plagued him Houston, which is why I was skeptical New Orleans could get value from the four years and $28 million remaining on his deal.
Namely, he can't shoot straight. Ariza is at 37.7 percent from the floor after hitting just 39.4 percent a year ago. His true shooting percentage is once again among the worst in the league, and it appears playing with Chris Paul hasn't completely cured his compulsion to take terrible shots. In particular, his willingness to shoot 3s isn't matched by an ability to convert them -- he's taking 4.4 a game (nearly half his overall field goal attempts), but he has made only 31.6 percent. For his career, he's a 32.1 percent marksman from downtown, so this shouldn't surprise anybody.
Prince
Tayshaun Prince, Detroit
Also known as the world's most overvalued trade asset. The Pistons seemingly remain convinced they can get some kind of megastar in return for Prince, just as they've been much of the past three years. While Prince has a nice expiring contract, so does half the league.
This year, Prince has also hurt his trade value with his run-ins with coach John Kuester, and with his play on the court. On the surface, nothing seems different -- he's scoring about the same number of points and shooting about the same percentage.
But look at that true shooting percentage column. Prince owns a terrible mark (47.7) because he's become strictly a 2-point jump shooter. He's made only four 3-pointers on the season and he averages just one free throw attempt for every six field goal attempts.
Mayo
O.J. Mayo, Memphis
Mayo is younger than most of the other players on this list, but his start to the season hasn't been any less worrying. The Grizzlies' shooting guard has been shooting mostly blanks, hitting just 38.8 percent from the floor and drawing fewer fouls than ever, with just 31 free throw attempts in 14 games. One might think he's lost in an offense that has given more rope to point guard Mike Conley, but statistically that isn't the case -- Mayo's usage rate is unchanged from a year ago. His shots just aren't going in.
That said, I do wonder if a sixth-man role is better for him anyway. The Grizzlies could use defensive ace Tony Allen as a starter and upgrade their soft D, and then bring Mayo in with their pathetic second unit and have some offense on the floor. So far, we've seen no momentum toward that, but if Mayo keeps struggling he may become a reserve regardless.
Jefferson
Al Jefferson, Utah
Save for one glorious night in Orlando, he's played a very limited role in all the comeback-related mayhem in Utah. Jefferson hasn't been awful or anything, but his offensive impact has been more muted than one might have expected. He's averaging just 17.9 points per 40 minutes and has been a bystander in a few of Utah's celebrated fourth-quarter comebacks. The decline in shots hasn't been matched by an increase in efficiency, either, as he's at a career-low 46.7 percent from the floor.
One other note is that Jefferson's rebound rate is also the worst of his career, which is a big surprise given how aggressively Utah teams have crashed the boards in years past. Jefferson is normally among the league's top rebounders, but his rebound rate this season is a very ordinary 13.9.
Gomes
Ryan Gomes, Clippers
Signed as a free agent to take over as the Clippers' starting small forward, Gomes was so bad that he quickly lost his job to rookie Al-Farouq Aminu.
The big problem is that he can't score enough. For the season, he's averaging a meager 9.3 points per 40 minutes, while shooting just 35.3 percent from the floor. Gomes' 6.6 rebound rate is one of the worst among forwards.
Mystifyingly, he's still averaging 32 minutes a game, but either his play or that minutes total is going to change dramatically in the coming weeks. His numbers practically beg for him to be replaced.
Salmons
John Salmons, Milwaukee
Salmons missed the entire preseason and had to start cold on opening day, but his slow start is one of the reasons the Bucks have been a colossal disappointment at the offensive end. Milwaukee is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, with Salmons converting only 37.3 percent of his shots while ranking second on the team in attempts.
The 30-year-old guard sports a career-high in usage rate, which says as much about his team's offensive shortcomings as anything, but he can't get much going either outside or inside. Not only has his 3-ball been a bit wayward (34.9 percent), but he's shooting a miserable 38.4 percent inside the arc, helping account for his hugely disappointing 48.8 TS%.
Lowry
Kyle Lowry, Houston
One of the reasons the Rockets weren't overly concerned when Aaron Brooks sprained his ankle is because they had a quality veteran backup in Lowry.
Oops.
Lowry showed up to training camp out of shape and never got back into it, thanks to knee and back problems in the preseason. Instead, he's been playing his way into shape during the regular season and the Rockets are bearing the consequences. Lowry has shot 33.8 percent and averaged only 9.8 points and 6.0 assists per 40 minutes, but his turnovers have been even worse. He's given the rock away on 16.8 percent of the possessions he uses, the sixth-worst rate among point guards.
Arenas
Gilbert Arenas, Washington
I got sucked into thinking Gilbert was back while he torched Pistons backup Will Bynum in Sunday's unexpectedly thrilling Wizards-Pistons throwdown, but against most competition he's been decidedly less impressive. Arenas' per-game numbers look fine, but as has been the case ever since his knee troubles hit, the percentages work against him.
Arenas is shooting only 39.4 percent from the floor, and as usual he mixes in the so-so shooting with too many turnovers, too few assists and too casual an approach on D. As a max-contract player Arenas continues to underwhelm, and even if it weren't for the issues from last season, it's hard to imagine Washington having much luck unloading his orca-sized bad contract.
Haywood
Butler
Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, Dallas
I wonder what odds you could have gotten betting that the most valuable player the Mavs would acquire in last year's trade with Washington would be DeShawn Stevenson. So far in 2010-11, the "salary dump" in the trade has played far better than the two players Dallas acquired intentionally.
Butler has been slowed by a couple of injuries, but even before that he seemed like an odd fit in the Mavs' offense. That hasn't changed in the early part of the season, which has seen him shoot 38.3 percent, and the disparity between his 115 shot attempts and his 13 assists is a bit jarring as well. Butler is gunning with little discretion, as his usage rate is nearly a career high, but he isn't converting at nearly a high enough rate to justify it.
As for Haywood, in retrospect it seems that guaranteeing five years to a guy with motivation issues might not have been the best strategy. He is averaging only 7.8 points per 40 minutes while shooting 5-of-21 from the line, and he has one assist in 241 minutes.
Haywood has plenty of time to turn this around, obviously, but his play so far has him headed straight for Dallas' Bad Center Contract Hall of Fame, where he can join esteemed predecessors like Evan Eschmeyer, Shawn Bradley, DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier. While Haywood's contract isn't for quite as much as originally reported, he makes a guaranteed $10 million in 2014-15, when he'll be 35.
PER Diem: Nov. 23, 2010
EmailPrintComments
8
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images
Chauncey Billups hasn't looked like himself this season. And it's not 'cause of the bandage on his nose.
When do we start worrying?
That question looms over every team dealing with a struggling veteran player. On the one hand, knowing a player's track record makes it easy to dismiss a rough November as a short-term fluke. On the other, it's also easy to look at the player's birth certificate, ponder the inevitable facts of how age impacts a typical NBA career, and wonder if a bad dozen games will spiral into a bad 82.
Take Chauncey Billups, for instance. His play this season has been a virtual nonstory with all the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors, but if Melo goes, Billups might be the next Nuggets star available. Problem is, a team will need a strong stomach to trade for Billups if his play doesn't improve considerably.
Billups is shooting only 34.4 percent, and uncharacteristically he is turning the ball over on 14.1 percent of his possessions. His PER of 13.15 is his lowest in more than a decade -- back during his last stint with the Nuggets -- and his normally stellar 3-point stroke is at 31.6 percent. Maybe he's worn out from playing for Team USA, maybe he's in a shooting slump that he'll snap right out of ... or maybe he's 34, and doing what 34-year-olds typically do. That's one of the big questions in Denver, especially after the Nuggets, playing without Billups, didn't skip a beat in beating Golden State on the road Monday night.
But the Nuggets (and their potential trade partners) aren't the only ones pondering the struggles of veteran players four weeks into the season. Several teams face tough decisions in the coming weeks and months if their esteemed vets can't improve on underwhelming November efforts. In addition to Mr. Big Shot, here are a dozen players who merit closer attention:
Lewis
Rashard Lewis, Orlando
Given that Lewis had a tough regular season in 2009-10, the Magic have to be deeply concerned about his dwindling productivity so far this season. Instead of a bounce-back year, he's having a bounce-further-down year. And it's tough to blame it on changes in Orlando's system, when fellow Magic power forwards Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson are thriving offensively in the same environment.
Not Lewis. His miserable 10.99 PER is the biggest reason the Magic have underwhelmed thus far offensively (a lesser reason is the next name on our list), while his 14.6 points per 40 minutes are his least since he was a teenage rookie in Seattle. His 41.6 percent shooting from the floor is another unexpected low, but what's truly pathetic is that he's earned only 14 free throw attempts in 13 games.
Redick
J.J. Redick, Orlando
Unlike Lewis, Redick had a breakout 2009-10. That hasn't helped him any in 2010-11. After signing a three-year, $20 million offer sheet with Chicago that the Magic matched, he has fallen miles short of expectations.
Redick's trademark shooting touch has deserted him this November, as he has made just 4 of 28 3-point attempts (14.3 percent). The rest of his game hasn't been much better -- he is shooting 29.8 percent overall with one of the worst rebound rates in captivity, and his 4.45 PER is the league's worst by a player with at least 200 minutes played. (In a very bad sign for the Magic, Redick's closest competition for this honor is teammate Chris Duhon.)
Ariza
Trevor Ariza, New Orleans
Ariza's addition has undoubtedly infused the Hornets with some athleticism that has proved valuable at the defensive end, but offensively he's had the same problem that plagued him Houston, which is why I was skeptical New Orleans could get value from the four years and $28 million remaining on his deal.
Namely, he can't shoot straight. Ariza is at 37.7 percent from the floor after hitting just 39.4 percent a year ago. His true shooting percentage is once again among the worst in the league, and it appears playing with Chris Paul hasn't completely cured his compulsion to take terrible shots. In particular, his willingness to shoot 3s isn't matched by an ability to convert them -- he's taking 4.4 a game (nearly half his overall field goal attempts), but he has made only 31.6 percent. For his career, he's a 32.1 percent marksman from downtown, so this shouldn't surprise anybody.
Prince
Tayshaun Prince, Detroit
Also known as the world's most overvalued trade asset. The Pistons seemingly remain convinced they can get some kind of megastar in return for Prince, just as they've been much of the past three years. While Prince has a nice expiring contract, so does half the league.
This year, Prince has also hurt his trade value with his run-ins with coach John Kuester, and with his play on the court. On the surface, nothing seems different -- he's scoring about the same number of points and shooting about the same percentage.
But look at that true shooting percentage column. Prince owns a terrible mark (47.7) because he's become strictly a 2-point jump shooter. He's made only four 3-pointers on the season and he averages just one free throw attempt for every six field goal attempts.
Mayo
O.J. Mayo, Memphis
Mayo is younger than most of the other players on this list, but his start to the season hasn't been any less worrying. The Grizzlies' shooting guard has been shooting mostly blanks, hitting just 38.8 percent from the floor and drawing fewer fouls than ever, with just 31 free throw attempts in 14 games. One might think he's lost in an offense that has given more rope to point guard Mike Conley, but statistically that isn't the case -- Mayo's usage rate is unchanged from a year ago. His shots just aren't going in.
That said, I do wonder if a sixth-man role is better for him anyway. The Grizzlies could use defensive ace Tony Allen as a starter and upgrade their soft D, and then bring Mayo in with their pathetic second unit and have some offense on the floor. So far, we've seen no momentum toward that, but if Mayo keeps struggling he may become a reserve regardless.
Jefferson
Al Jefferson, Utah
Save for one glorious night in Orlando, he's played a very limited role in all the comeback-related mayhem in Utah. Jefferson hasn't been awful or anything, but his offensive impact has been more muted than one might have expected. He's averaging just 17.9 points per 40 minutes and has been a bystander in a few of Utah's celebrated fourth-quarter comebacks. The decline in shots hasn't been matched by an increase in efficiency, either, as he's at a career-low 46.7 percent from the floor.
One other note is that Jefferson's rebound rate is also the worst of his career, which is a big surprise given how aggressively Utah teams have crashed the boards in years past. Jefferson is normally among the league's top rebounders, but his rebound rate this season is a very ordinary 13.9.
Gomes
Ryan Gomes, Clippers
Signed as a free agent to take over as the Clippers' starting small forward, Gomes was so bad that he quickly lost his job to rookie Al-Farouq Aminu.
The big problem is that he can't score enough. For the season, he's averaging a meager 9.3 points per 40 minutes, while shooting just 35.3 percent from the floor. Gomes' 6.6 rebound rate is one of the worst among forwards.
Mystifyingly, he's still averaging 32 minutes a game, but either his play or that minutes total is going to change dramatically in the coming weeks. His numbers practically beg for him to be replaced.
Salmons
John Salmons, Milwaukee
Salmons missed the entire preseason and had to start cold on opening day, but his slow start is one of the reasons the Bucks have been a colossal disappointment at the offensive end. Milwaukee is dead last in the NBA in offensive efficiency, with Salmons converting only 37.3 percent of his shots while ranking second on the team in attempts.
The 30-year-old guard sports a career-high in usage rate, which says as much about his team's offensive shortcomings as anything, but he can't get much going either outside or inside. Not only has his 3-ball been a bit wayward (34.9 percent), but he's shooting a miserable 38.4 percent inside the arc, helping account for his hugely disappointing 48.8 TS%.
Lowry
Kyle Lowry, Houston
One of the reasons the Rockets weren't overly concerned when Aaron Brooks sprained his ankle is because they had a quality veteran backup in Lowry.
Oops.
Lowry showed up to training camp out of shape and never got back into it, thanks to knee and back problems in the preseason. Instead, he's been playing his way into shape during the regular season and the Rockets are bearing the consequences. Lowry has shot 33.8 percent and averaged only 9.8 points and 6.0 assists per 40 minutes, but his turnovers have been even worse. He's given the rock away on 16.8 percent of the possessions he uses, the sixth-worst rate among point guards.
Arenas
Gilbert Arenas, Washington
I got sucked into thinking Gilbert was back while he torched Pistons backup Will Bynum in Sunday's unexpectedly thrilling Wizards-Pistons throwdown, but against most competition he's been decidedly less impressive. Arenas' per-game numbers look fine, but as has been the case ever since his knee troubles hit, the percentages work against him.
Arenas is shooting only 39.4 percent from the floor, and as usual he mixes in the so-so shooting with too many turnovers, too few assists and too casual an approach on D. As a max-contract player Arenas continues to underwhelm, and even if it weren't for the issues from last season, it's hard to imagine Washington having much luck unloading his orca-sized bad contract.
Haywood
Butler
Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, Dallas
I wonder what odds you could have gotten betting that the most valuable player the Mavs would acquire in last year's trade with Washington would be DeShawn Stevenson. So far in 2010-11, the "salary dump" in the trade has played far better than the two players Dallas acquired intentionally.
Butler has been slowed by a couple of injuries, but even before that he seemed like an odd fit in the Mavs' offense. That hasn't changed in the early part of the season, which has seen him shoot 38.3 percent, and the disparity between his 115 shot attempts and his 13 assists is a bit jarring as well. Butler is gunning with little discretion, as his usage rate is nearly a career high, but he isn't converting at nearly a high enough rate to justify it.
As for Haywood, in retrospect it seems that guaranteeing five years to a guy with motivation issues might not have been the best strategy. He is averaging only 7.8 points per 40 minutes while shooting 5-of-21 from the line, and he has one assist in 241 minutes.
Haywood has plenty of time to turn this around, obviously, but his play so far has him headed straight for Dallas' Bad Center Contract Hall of Fame, where he can join esteemed predecessors like Evan Eschmeyer, Shawn Bradley, DeSagana Diop and Erick Dampier. While Haywood's contract isn't for quite as much as originally reported, he makes a guaranteed $10 million in 2014-15, when he'll be 35.
