Post by FLCeltsFan on Sept 27, 2010 12:13:24 GMT -5
2009-10 Recap
HOLLINGER'S '09-10 STATS
W-L: 50-32 (Pythagorean W-L: 53-29)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.4 (13th)
Defensive Efficiency: 93.8 (23rd)
Pace Factor: 92.5 (27th)
Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (19.51)
We're not exactly sure what the Celtics were last season, which makes it that much harder to predict what they'll be this coming season. Were they the team that raced out of the gate 23-5? Were they the weary group that limped through a 54-game season-ending stretch of mediocrity, going 27-27? Or perhaps they're the one that rebounded with a vengeance in the playoffs, defeating two of the league's three best teams in succession while coming within a quarter of stealing an unlikely championship.
Glass-half-full types take encouragement from the most recent body of work, as Boston's aging vets looked surprisingly hearty and hale during the playoffs. Boston shocked Cleveland, bullied Orlando and had the Lakers with one foot in the grave before the Celtics' biggest Achilles' heel -- a lack of offensive firepower -- came back to bite them in the second half of Game 7 in the Finals.
That run to the Finals had important implications for this season. Instead of rebuilding the roster, which Boston might have done had it petered out in the first round, the Celtics brought nearly all the key pieces back and added a couple more ancient warriors to the mix. Unfortunately, the deep playoff run will cost them their center for about half the season. Kendrick Perkins hurt his knee in Game 6 and underwent surgery after the season, a development that led to a wholesale redevelopment of the frontcourt.
2-Point FG%, 2009-10 Leaders
Team 2-Pt. FG%
Boston 52.2
Orlando 52.1
Phoenix 52.0
Cleveland 52.0
Utah 51.9
League average 49.2
The end result is that this season's Celtics will look a lot like last season's, which was one of the most distinctive in basketball on several fronts. For starters, their periodic offensive struggles didn't emanate from an inability to make shots -- instead, it was an inability to take them that was the problem. Boston led the NBA in 2-point field goal percentage (see chart), but was so anemic on the boards and so prone to turnovers that it took fewer shots per possessions than any other team (with "shots" defined to include free throw attempts times 0.44).
Fewest Shots* Per Poss., 2009-10
Team Shots/100 poss.
Boston 93.5
Charlotte 94.4
Indiana 94.5
Golden State 94.7
Utah 95.3
League average 95.9
* Shots = FGA + (FTA * 0.44)
Given that record, it stands to reason the Celtics could trade a bit more volume for a bit less accuracy, and they've made a couple of moves in that direction. For example, there was Boston's late-season deal of Eddie House for Nate Robinson. It looked like a dud until Robinson basically won Game 6 of the Orlando series for them; he also proved huge in Game 4 of the Finals. Going forward, his shot-creating abilities should give a big boost to a flagging second unit.
Boston also lost two of its most turnover-prone players with the free-agent departure of Tony Allen and the injury to Perkins. Replacing them are the two O'Neals, Jermaine and Shaquille; Jermaine in particular has been able to create shots without high turnover levels, so he should help Boston on that front. He'll have to, as that was also a specialty of the now-retired Rasheed Wallace.
In the meantime, Boston has to maintain its high standards on defense. Boston rated fifth in regular-season defensive efficiency and took it to another level in the playoffs, finishing second in playoff defensive efficiency despite facing the murderers row of Cleveland, Orlando and the Lakers.
The Celtics placed second in the NBA in forcing turnovers (see chart), with only the reckless Warriors finishing ahead of them. Rajon Rondo and Tony Allen were the primary disruptors -- in fact, those two finished first and second in the NBA in steals per minute. Allen's role in that department will be taken over by rookie ballhawk Avery Bradley, but otherwise the Celtics will line up the same.
Most Opponent Turnovers, 2009-10
Team Pct. ending in TOs
Golden State 17.1
Boston 16.6
Charlotte 16.4
Milwaukee 16.1
Detroit 15.7
League average 15.4
In fact, they could be more formidable than they were last season if Kevin Garnett keeps feeling spry. He was clearly off his game during the middle part of the season but recovered down the stretch when Doc Rivers cut his minutes, which is one reason Boston's defense was so much stingier in the playoffs.
Losing both Perkins and Wallace is a concern, but the O'Neals should mostly offset them -- Jermaine is a quality defender, while Shaq is the antidote needed against Orlando's Dwight Howard should the teams renew acquaintances in the playoffs.
The biggest threat to Boston's defensive integrity may be on the bench. The architect of the defense, assistant Tom Thibodeau, left to become coach of the Chicago Bulls.
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Offseason Moves
Boston had an interesting offseason because it passed on an opportunity to completely reshape the roster. This was probably the appropriate choice -- for heaven's sake, the Celtics were 18 minutes from winning the title -- but Boston could have gone in a very different direction by letting the contracts of Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Robinson expire and then plunging into free agency.
Instead, they've signed up for a two-year commitment with a grizzled group and surprisingly yanked Rivers from the jaws of retirement to stay on the sideline for another year. Dormer Nets coach Lawrence Frank -- a pretty solid defensive tactician in his own right -- succeeded Tom Thibodeau and, perhaps, has first dibs on the head job after Doc rides off into the sunset.
Rasheed Wallace retired; Signed Jermaine O'Neal for two years, $11 million. Boston used its entire midlevel exception on O'Neal, and the more I look at this deal, the more I like it. It's only for two years so the risk is very small, plus O'Neal is only 31 and quietly played very well last season. He won't be the floor spacer Wallace was, but he'll replace Perkins' post defense and he'll score enough to help offensively.
Signed Shaquille O'Neal for two years, $2.8 million. This was a real coup given Perkins' knee injury, as Shaq defends Orlando's Dwight Howard nearly as effectively as Perkins does -- a matchup that basically won the conference finals for the Celtics. Shaq has his limitations and his prima donna act can rub people the wrong way, but the Big Limerick was a good risk at this price.
Re-signed Nate Robinson for two years, $9 million. Robinson demonstrated his value late in the postseason, as the Celtics desperately needed a bench player who could create shots and he delivered. I expect him to have a much more prominent role this season as a sixth man, and he could pair with Rondo in the backcourt at times.
Re-signed Ray Allen for two years, $20 million. Are you noticing a pattern? Boston signed Allen, Robinson and the two O'Neals to two-year deals, coinciding with the time that Garnett's $23 million per annum comes off the books. They've smartly positioned this veteran team for a two-year run at another title, and after that they're reaching for the dynamite. This was a clever piece of salary cap construction by general manager Danny Ainge, offering a pretty even balance between the risk of being old and capped out and the reward of grabbing another ring. The fact he pulled this off while so many other teams were signing wacky deals for twice the money makes it an even more impressive accomplishment.
As for Allen, this deal was par for the course -- on a per-year basis Boston probably overpaid, but by guaranteeing only two years, the Celtics have maintained maximum flexibility. Because they're willing to pay luxury tax, the second consideration far outweighs the first.
Let Tony Allen go, drafted Avery Bradley and Luke Harangody. It was a big surprise to see Allen walk given how well he played at the end of last season, but Bradley may have usurped his role by the end of this season anyway. While he has offensive limitations, he's a better ballhandler than Allen, and by all accounts he's a suffocating defender.
Harangody was a late second-round pick who had a productive career at Notre Dame but offers little in the way of upside. He played well enough in summer league to earn a contract but won't be cracking this frontcourt rotation.
Signed Paul Pierce for four years, $61 million. While Pierce gave the Celtics a fairly significant hometown discount, he also was the one exception to Boston's two-year cap-management strategy -- simply because he was way too good to expect to retain with such a short deal. The tail end of this contract might be distasteful, but given the Celtics' goals, they really had no choice but to re-sign Pierce. The fourth year is only partially guaranteed, and there's a chance he'll retire before then anyway.
Re-signed Marquis Daniels for one year, $2.5 million. Daniels hasn't been good in three years and hasn't been healthy in about 30, so I didn't really see the urgency in bringing him back. However, Boston was in a position cap-wise where re-signing its own player was much easier than getting somebody else's.
Signed Von Wafer for one-year, minimum. Wafer is a talented offensive player but another one with a "difficult" reputation, something the Celtics have accumulated in waves over the past two years. Between Shaq, Robinson and Wafer, they're definitely testing the limits of the "Ubuntu" thing here. He's also had some health problems, but if he's in shape he can score, and Boston needs somebody like that on the wing.
Signed Semih Erden for two years, minimum. A second-round pick in 2008 from Turkey, Erden gives Boston another frontcourt body in case things get dire. I really don't think he can play, but it's a low-risk proposition.
Signed Delonte West for one year, veteran's minimum. The Celtics are familiar with West so one can argue it's less risk than it would be for other teams, and the price is certainly right. If he keeps his head on straight he'll provide a wing defender and shot creator to replace Tony Allen. As noted above, however, the Celtics' bench is now awash in questionable characters. That's the tradeoff for acquiring players like West, Wafer, Robinson and Shaq so cheaply.
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Biggest Strength: Defense
No big secret here, but it's going to be crucial to the Celtics' success again this season. Boston has two factors working against it in this department: first, the departure of defensive guru Thibodeau, who orchestrated a frustrating scheme that loaded up on the strong side of the floor and made life difficult for one-on-one scorers; and second, the injury to low-post defensive ace Kendrick Perkins. At a lower level, losing Wallace and Tony Allen means the second unit may lose a notch on D.
Fortunately, the Celtics have plenty where that came from. Rondo is hands down the best defensive point guard in basketball, with his fast hands and long arms constantly poking balls loose and preventing other passes and shots from being made. Garnett showed much more activity in the second half of last season, and while he's not the dominant force he was three years ago, he's still a major factor with his length and intensity. Pierce and Jermaine O'Neal are significantly underrated defensively, and Bradley could be a major presence too.
That said, the biggest factor of all for Boston has always been that the whole is more than the sum of its parts. New players like the two O'Neals and Nate Robinson will have to show they can fit into that system.
Finally, if Delonte West stays on the straight and narrow he can replace 90 percent of what Tony Allen did as a wing defender.
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Biggest Weakness: Age
All these guys were good last season. How many of them will still be good in 2010-11? With so many players in their mid-30s, the risk of collapse shouldn't be dismissed. Boston will start a 32-year-old, a 33-year-old, a 34-year-old and a 35-year-old; two of those four have been in the NBA since they were 18 and thus have played more minutes (and taken more pounding) than nearly any similar-aged player in history. The bench isn't exactly a bunch of spring chickens either, with a 38-year-old Shaq the most likely sixth man.
Boston has some youth if you look hard enough -- Rondo and Davis are 24, and Perkins is 25. Bradley, obviously, skews the average down at just 19. Additionally, Boston's older players are regarded as some of the league's most dedicated and best-conditioned, Shaq excepted.
Nonetheless, the vast majority of the minutes will come from players that are very long in the tooth, and Boston's chances of repeating as conference champion depends almost entirely on those players maintaining their levels of production. They appeared to lag badly in that department a year ago before rallying in the postseason. Can they pull off an encore?
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Outlook
It was going to be hard for the Celtics to repeat as conference champions regardless of what else happened around the league. For starters, we have to remember how unlikely their run to the Finals was last season and how rare it is for teams to catch lightning in a bottle in consecutive springs. The most similar recent example, for instance, was the 1994-95 Rockets; the next year they won 48 games and were swept in the second round.
Additionally, Boston's neighborhood just became dramatically more difficult with Miami's additions of LeBron James and Chris Bosh. It was much more plausible to see the Celtics winning the conference if the other stars had stayed put.
Finally, there's the age issue. Rondo is ascending but nearly all the other key players are well into their decline phase. Perkins will miss half the season and may not be the same when he comes back, and we still don't know what Thibodeau's departure will mean at the defensive end. Pierce's numbers are likely to dip too.
Boston will be a huge favorite to win the division -- it might be the only team over .500, in fact -- and still has the trump card that it matches up so well with Orlando. Unfortunately, the Celtics are unlikely to get to the point where it's just them and the Magic left standing, and they still have uppity rivals like the Bulls, Bucks and Hawks nipping at their heels. The Celtics' defense and chemistry will keep them near the top, but I'm not seeing enough firepower to provide a repeat of last season's run. At the end of the day, I think they'll be exactly what they were a year ago from November to April. It's the ending that I see changing.
Prediction: 51-31, 1st in Atlantic, 3rd in Eastern Conference
