Post by FLCeltsFan on Jun 26, 2010 8:32:47 GMT -5
Buyer's Guide: Ray Allen
He's in the twilight of his career, but there's always a market for a pure shooter
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By Tom Haberstroh
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty ImagesHis shot is the purest in the game, but Allen requires good screens from teammates to get open.
ESPN Insider is analyzing NBA free agents not named LeBron James (we covered him pretty extensively a few weeks ago, and there's even more coming every day on the LeBron Tracker) to determine what they're really worth to the teams chasing them this summer. To follow the entire series, click here. We continue Saturday with Ray Allen.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Ray Allen is the best pure shooter available this offseason and one of the greatest of all time. As long as he stays healthy next season, he could dethrone Reggie Miller as the record holder for the most career 3-point field goals. But at age 35 next season, can he still help a contending team?
Ray Allen, SG
AGE: 34
HT: 6-5
WT: 205
PPG: 20.5
RPG: 4.3
APG: 3.7
FG% .450
FT% .894
WHAT HE'S WORTH: 2 years, $20 million
WHAT HE'LL GET: 3 years, $33 million
GOOD FITS: Bulls, Thunder, Nets, Celtics
LESS THAN IDEAL: Heat, Knicks, Clippers
NEXT-LEVEL STATS
PER: 15.2 (122nd in NBA)
EWA: 6.6 wins (68th)
Usage Rate: 20.2 percent of team poss. (81st)
Off. Rating: 115 pts. per 100 poss. (NBA average: 108)
Def. Rating: 108 pts. allowed per 100 (NBA average: 108)
Off. Rebound Rate: 2.0 percent of rebounds while on floor
Def. Rebound Rate: 8.8 percent of rebounds while on floor
Tot. Rebound Rate: 5.5 percent of rebounds while on floor
Adjusted plus/minus: +10.8 (10th)
... indicates the player's plus/minus, adjusted to account for both strength of teammates and the opponents on the floor with a player over the course of the season.
66
RELIABILITY RATING
A composite rating that quantifies a player's offensive dependability on a 1 to 100 scale after considering efficiency, shot creation, playing time and clutch performance. LeBron James is a 98, David West is a 75 and DeMarre Carroll is a 10.
Component Stat %Rank
CLUTCH 23.8 points per 48 clutch mins. 65
USAGE 20.2 percent of team poss. 56
EFFICIENCY 115 points per 100 poss. 82
RUN 35.2 minutes per game 82
DEPRECIATION
Career Regular-Season Games: 1,022
Missed Regular-Season Games: 126
Durability Percentage: 89.0
Injury Concerns: Severe ankle problems; problematic back
Injury Risk: Moderate; three ankle surgeries
CAREER SUMMARY
How hard is it to score at Ray Allen's height? In the 3-point era, Allen is only the fourth player shorter than 6-6 to hit the 20,000-point mark during his career. Other than Allen, only Gary Payton, Mitch Richmond and Allen Iverson are members of that club.
Allen offers prolific 3-point shooting, a commodity teams always covet in free agency. Like Miller, Allen creates space to get his shot off by darting around the floor and rubbing shoulders with his screening teammates. All told, he generated 31.6 percent of his scoring plays from off-the-ball screens this past season, topping all NBA starters.
At this stage in his career, Allen almost completely relies on his frontcourt teammates to set strong screens so he can pick off his defenders. In Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett, the Boston Celtics fielded a murderers' row of screen setters who crushed chasing defenders. But once Allen loses the essential ability to carve up the half court, he's likely finished as a contributor at the NBA level.
"He's showing his age right in front of you," one league exec said. "He's struggling to get where he wants to get athletically."
Where does he want to go? Surprisingly, it's not the corners -- at least not in the regular season. While he was on fire in the playoffs from the left corner, nailing 16 of 30 attempts, Allen shot just 20-for-68 (.294) from that spot in the regular season, according to NBA.com. He was better from the right corner, however, shooting 20-for-55 (.364).
Normally, sharpshooters target the corners, where the line is 21 inches shorter than at the top of the key. But, if we focus solely on the regular season, Allen's favorite spots on the arc were the wings, where he lit it up at a blistering .397 conversion rate.
Allen exposes his biggest weakness when he's forced to take his man off the dribble. In fact, he was one of the worst in the NBA this past season, shooting just 11-for-39 in isolation situations. Luckily, those made up only 4.3 percent of his scoring plays, according to Synergy Sports Technology. As such, his skill set requires a team tailored to his strengths, since his scoring depends so highly on his teammates.
Of course, an aging shooting specialist really stings on the defensive end, and Allen is no exception. He struggles to muscle up with supersized 2-guards and often needs a defensive switch so he can guard the opposing point guard. We saw this setup against the Los Angeles Lakers, and it should continue wherever Allen lands.
But teams know what they're getting with Allen. He's a sharpshooter who offsets some of his inability to create his own shot with historically automatic free throw shooting. One league exec wonders if his buzz should be louder this summer. "He has been completely dismissed," said the exec. "Ray's still really, really good if you let him stand in a corner and shoot. And good teams can do that."
FINDING THE RIGHT FIT
In all likelihood, Allen will probably hang it up before he signs with a losing team. A rebuilding team signing a guy with Allen's age and skill set is like outfitting an Alaskan starter home with a pool. There would be smarter ways to spend the extra cap space.
Instead, expect a playoff team with some pocket change to polish its rotation. "His numbers will be artificially suppressed on a playoff team," said one league exec. "But his impact could be everything the impact Chris Bosh has going to a bad team."
“
Ray's still really, really good if you let him stand in a corner and shoot. And good teams can do that.
” - NBA executive
So which contenders would benefit the most from Allen, should he not end up staying in Boston? The source says to keep an eye on the Thunder. "What would Ray Allen look like playing with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City? He's a really underrated asset right now."
The Thunder have $15 million in cap space and could really use a veteran 3-point specialist who wouldn't crash their tight-knit locker room. With Westbrook and Durant due for multiyear deals soon, the Thunder need a player who won't come with a paralyzing long-term contract, and Allen fits that bill.
Aside from the Thunder, the Chicago Bulls are another team to watch. With about $29 million in cap space, the Bulls could offer a scoring big man the max (say, Bosh) and pair him with Allen on the wing to fill the shooting void they never filled after Ben Gordon left last summer. One high-level league source says that should be the game plan as opposed to "prostrating yourself at the altar of LeBron and submitting to his will for the next five years."
Among the big spenders this offseason, the Miami Heat probably have the least reason to sign Allen, since that Dwyane Wade guy already occupies his position. With the Knicks in rebuilding mode, and chasing two max deals, don't expect them to show much interest in Allen, either. And while the New Jersey Nets will have room for a max deal with about $10 million leftover, putting them in range for Allen, he might be too old for their taste.
Allen's career should come to a close soon, but he probably has a couple more playoff runs in him. It's almost unjust to let him finish his playoff career missing 24 of his final 28 3-point attempts. Perhaps the Bulls or the Thunder will give him a chance to rewrite his final chapter.
Tom Haberstroh is a contributor to ESPN Insider. Data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology, DraftExpress.com and Hoopdata.com.
He's in the twilight of his career, but there's always a market for a pure shooter
* Comments
By Tom Haberstroh
Special to ESPN Insider
Archive
Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE/Getty ImagesHis shot is the purest in the game, but Allen requires good screens from teammates to get open.
ESPN Insider is analyzing NBA free agents not named LeBron James (we covered him pretty extensively a few weeks ago, and there's even more coming every day on the LeBron Tracker) to determine what they're really worth to the teams chasing them this summer. To follow the entire series, click here. We continue Saturday with Ray Allen.
OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Ray Allen is the best pure shooter available this offseason and one of the greatest of all time. As long as he stays healthy next season, he could dethrone Reggie Miller as the record holder for the most career 3-point field goals. But at age 35 next season, can he still help a contending team?
Ray Allen, SG
AGE: 34
HT: 6-5
WT: 205
PPG: 20.5
RPG: 4.3
APG: 3.7
FG% .450
FT% .894
WHAT HE'S WORTH: 2 years, $20 million
WHAT HE'LL GET: 3 years, $33 million
GOOD FITS: Bulls, Thunder, Nets, Celtics
LESS THAN IDEAL: Heat, Knicks, Clippers
NEXT-LEVEL STATS
PER: 15.2 (122nd in NBA)
EWA: 6.6 wins (68th)
Usage Rate: 20.2 percent of team poss. (81st)
Off. Rating: 115 pts. per 100 poss. (NBA average: 108)
Def. Rating: 108 pts. allowed per 100 (NBA average: 108)
Off. Rebound Rate: 2.0 percent of rebounds while on floor
Def. Rebound Rate: 8.8 percent of rebounds while on floor
Tot. Rebound Rate: 5.5 percent of rebounds while on floor
Adjusted plus/minus: +10.8 (10th)
... indicates the player's plus/minus, adjusted to account for both strength of teammates and the opponents on the floor with a player over the course of the season.
66
RELIABILITY RATING
A composite rating that quantifies a player's offensive dependability on a 1 to 100 scale after considering efficiency, shot creation, playing time and clutch performance. LeBron James is a 98, David West is a 75 and DeMarre Carroll is a 10.
Component Stat %Rank
CLUTCH 23.8 points per 48 clutch mins. 65
USAGE 20.2 percent of team poss. 56
EFFICIENCY 115 points per 100 poss. 82
RUN 35.2 minutes per game 82
DEPRECIATION
Career Regular-Season Games: 1,022
Missed Regular-Season Games: 126
Durability Percentage: 89.0
Injury Concerns: Severe ankle problems; problematic back
Injury Risk: Moderate; three ankle surgeries
CAREER SUMMARY
How hard is it to score at Ray Allen's height? In the 3-point era, Allen is only the fourth player shorter than 6-6 to hit the 20,000-point mark during his career. Other than Allen, only Gary Payton, Mitch Richmond and Allen Iverson are members of that club.
Allen offers prolific 3-point shooting, a commodity teams always covet in free agency. Like Miller, Allen creates space to get his shot off by darting around the floor and rubbing shoulders with his screening teammates. All told, he generated 31.6 percent of his scoring plays from off-the-ball screens this past season, topping all NBA starters.
At this stage in his career, Allen almost completely relies on his frontcourt teammates to set strong screens so he can pick off his defenders. In Kendrick Perkins, Rasheed Wallace and Kevin Garnett, the Boston Celtics fielded a murderers' row of screen setters who crushed chasing defenders. But once Allen loses the essential ability to carve up the half court, he's likely finished as a contributor at the NBA level.
"He's showing his age right in front of you," one league exec said. "He's struggling to get where he wants to get athletically."
Where does he want to go? Surprisingly, it's not the corners -- at least not in the regular season. While he was on fire in the playoffs from the left corner, nailing 16 of 30 attempts, Allen shot just 20-for-68 (.294) from that spot in the regular season, according to NBA.com. He was better from the right corner, however, shooting 20-for-55 (.364).
Normally, sharpshooters target the corners, where the line is 21 inches shorter than at the top of the key. But, if we focus solely on the regular season, Allen's favorite spots on the arc were the wings, where he lit it up at a blistering .397 conversion rate.
Allen exposes his biggest weakness when he's forced to take his man off the dribble. In fact, he was one of the worst in the NBA this past season, shooting just 11-for-39 in isolation situations. Luckily, those made up only 4.3 percent of his scoring plays, according to Synergy Sports Technology. As such, his skill set requires a team tailored to his strengths, since his scoring depends so highly on his teammates.
Of course, an aging shooting specialist really stings on the defensive end, and Allen is no exception. He struggles to muscle up with supersized 2-guards and often needs a defensive switch so he can guard the opposing point guard. We saw this setup against the Los Angeles Lakers, and it should continue wherever Allen lands.
But teams know what they're getting with Allen. He's a sharpshooter who offsets some of his inability to create his own shot with historically automatic free throw shooting. One league exec wonders if his buzz should be louder this summer. "He has been completely dismissed," said the exec. "Ray's still really, really good if you let him stand in a corner and shoot. And good teams can do that."
FINDING THE RIGHT FIT
In all likelihood, Allen will probably hang it up before he signs with a losing team. A rebuilding team signing a guy with Allen's age and skill set is like outfitting an Alaskan starter home with a pool. There would be smarter ways to spend the extra cap space.
Instead, expect a playoff team with some pocket change to polish its rotation. "His numbers will be artificially suppressed on a playoff team," said one league exec. "But his impact could be everything the impact Chris Bosh has going to a bad team."
“
Ray's still really, really good if you let him stand in a corner and shoot. And good teams can do that.
” - NBA executive
So which contenders would benefit the most from Allen, should he not end up staying in Boston? The source says to keep an eye on the Thunder. "What would Ray Allen look like playing with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant in Oklahoma City? He's a really underrated asset right now."
The Thunder have $15 million in cap space and could really use a veteran 3-point specialist who wouldn't crash their tight-knit locker room. With Westbrook and Durant due for multiyear deals soon, the Thunder need a player who won't come with a paralyzing long-term contract, and Allen fits that bill.
Aside from the Thunder, the Chicago Bulls are another team to watch. With about $29 million in cap space, the Bulls could offer a scoring big man the max (say, Bosh) and pair him with Allen on the wing to fill the shooting void they never filled after Ben Gordon left last summer. One high-level league source says that should be the game plan as opposed to "prostrating yourself at the altar of LeBron and submitting to his will for the next five years."
Among the big spenders this offseason, the Miami Heat probably have the least reason to sign Allen, since that Dwyane Wade guy already occupies his position. With the Knicks in rebuilding mode, and chasing two max deals, don't expect them to show much interest in Allen, either. And while the New Jersey Nets will have room for a max deal with about $10 million leftover, putting them in range for Allen, he might be too old for their taste.
Allen's career should come to a close soon, but he probably has a couple more playoff runs in him. It's almost unjust to let him finish his playoff career missing 24 of his final 28 3-point attempts. Perhaps the Bulls or the Thunder will give him a chance to rewrite his final chapter.
Tom Haberstroh is a contributor to ESPN Insider. Data courtesy of Synergy Sports Technology, DraftExpress.com and Hoopdata.com.
