Post by jrmzt on Feb 9, 2010 15:42:39 GMT -5
Updated: February 9, 2010, 12:15 PM ET
Overrated and underrated storylines
PER Diem: Feb. 9, 2010
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Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Chris KamanJoe Murphy/NBAE/Getty ImagesNothing against the Clippers' Chris Kaman, who is having a strong season, but is he really an All-Star?
Sometimes narratives take on a life of their own. For instance, let's say there's a player who we'll call "Chris." Let's say "Chris" has a bad year in 2008-09, missing a bunch of games with an injury and playing poorly in many of the others.
Let's say, further, that Chris gets in great shape the following offseason, shows up with a much-improved face-up game and a renewed zeal for scoring in the post, and puts together his best season as a pro. It's a great story, right?
But we can never stop there. We can't just say Chris had a good season ... we have to take it a step further and start campaigning to put him on the All-Star team. "But it's such a good story!" we argue. "How can you ignore it?"
And it is a good story, and it makes us feel really jolly. Except there's another half we don't consider -- that maybe there's another player, or even several players, who have played better than Chris. These other guys have been starved for attention, relatively, because we expected them to be good in the first place. As a result, there's no great story to be told, and thus no reason to start a let's-put-him-in-the-All-Star-Game campaign, but in truth they're more deserving.
If you haven't figured it out yet, "Chris" in this case is Clippers big man Chris Kaman, whom the commissioner selected as an injury replacement to the All-Star team Monday despite the fact that Carlos Boozer, Marc Gasol, Nene and Andrew Bynum are all having better years. Kaman is a great story, yes, but he's also third in PER on a team that's 21-29.
As a result, Kaman becomes our lead item in today's theme: A look at who and what are overrated and underrated so far this season.
With Kaman out of the way, let's take a look at a few other stories that are getting way too much (or too little) attention:
Kirilenko
Underrated: The Revival of AK-47
When we talk about players who merit consideration for one of the several All-Star spots likely to come open in the Western Conference, I'm surprised Andrei Kirilenko hasn't received more attention. Right now, his bad haircut is getting more airtime than his stellar play, and that's unfortunate.
One of the big reasons behind Utah's recent change in the standings, and in particular the Jazz's improved defensive play, is that Kirilenko has suddenly reverted to his mid-2000s form. Over the past eight games, he's averaging 18.6 points per game and shooting a scalding 72.1 percent from the floor.
That's impressive enough, but what's really notable is how he's filling out the rest of the stat sheet with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks per game. It's a throwback to his "5x5" days, except now he's hitting midrange jumpers consistently. Kirilenko's impact has been notable on D, too -- Utah gives up 6.8 points fewer per 100 possessions with him on the court.
As a result, he's been more than able to offset Utah's other issues on the wings -- the nondevelopment of Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles, for instance, or the injury to Kyle Korver -- and provide a reliable wingman for the Deron Williams-Carlos Boozer star tandem.
Dumars
Overrated: Joe Dumars
Let's look ourselves in the mirror, fellow media members: We've all given the guy a free pass because of his amazing run to six straight conference finals and blithely ignored the fact that he's screwed up a hundred ways from Tuesday since he decided to whack Flip Saunders after the 2008 conference finals.
Check out the résumé and find me a correct decision. Just one. Fire Saunders? Wrong. Hire Michael Curry? Wrong. Trade Chauncey Billups? Wrong. Extend Richard Hamilton? Wrong. Sign Kwame Brown? Wrong. Go after Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva? Wrong again.
In two years, the Pistons have gone from one of the best teams in basketball to among the worst. They stink, they're capped out, and they don't have much in the way of young talent; for all we know, in two years they're going to be the Pittsburgh Pisces or the Seattle Grunge or something. If Isiah Thomas or Rob Babcock had done this, we'd have buried them alive by now, so it's only fair for us to point out that regardless of his previous track record, Dumars is on a two-year losing streak of McHalian proportions.
Mohammed
Underrated: Nazr Mohammed
I'm going to keep talking about this 'til I'm blue in the face because nobody else seems to be catching on to Mohammed's dramatic career turnaround this season. Yes, Cap'n Jack has made an impact; yes, coach Larry Brown has these guys defending like never before; and yes, Gerald Wallace is showing the full arsenal now that he's finally staying healthy.
But I would argue Mohammed is a bigger story than those other guys, and absolutely nobody is talking about him. He was left for dead at the end of the bench last season, and this season he's been killing. The Bobcats lost Tyson Chandler and immediately embarked on a winning streak because Mohammed started channeling Dave Cowens -- how about 23 and 17 against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, or the fact he's averaging 20.2 points and 12.0 boards per 40 minutes, or that he's shooting 57.3 percent from the field?
Mohammed has been playing only 20-25 minutes a game, which has kept his numbers down and prevented more people from noticing him. While I don't think he's quite this good, I've always believed him to be underrated because of his knack on the boards and ugly-but-effective 10-to-12-foot jumper.
Hinrich
Overrated: Kirk Hinrich
I get about 20 e-mail questions a day about Hinrich, which might make sense if he had made a basket at any time in the last month. He is making more than $9 million this season and is shooting 37.7 percent, leaving me scratching my head wondering why fans of other teams still clamor for him.
It's not like this season is some dramatic outlier -- he's shot 41.3 percent for his career. His PERs the past three seasons are 13.41, 13.97 and 10.24, and, I repeat, he makes an average salary of $9 million a year -- not just this year, but next year, and the year after that, when he's 31. Sure, he's an accomplished wing defender, and that has value. But do you really want to kill your team's cap/tax situation by paying this guy star money to shoot bricks and play defense when similar players can be found for a fraction of the price?
Overrated: Steve Nash at 30
Hang on ...
Nash
Underrated: Steve Nash at 35
Steve Nash at 30 was a Big Story. Steve Nash at 35 isn't. But what Steve Nash is doing at 35 is way, way, way more amazing than what Steve Nash did at 30.
For starters, you'd have a hard time proving that the 35-year-old Nash is any worse than the 30-year-old Nash. Compared to his first MVP season in 2004-05, Nash is averaging three more points a game, providing just as many assists and rebounds per minute, and shooting better on 2s, 3s and free throws. He has a good shot at establishing a new career high in PER, not to mention becoming the first player in history to set a career high in scoring at age 35 or older.
Now that we've got that out of the way, go through the archives and find a point guard who did anywhere near as well at Nash's age. I'll just wait here for you to get back to me. ... Still waiting. ... Anything? No?
Truth is, no point guard in history can touch Nash's performance this season. In fact, only one guard prior to Nash has had a PER of 20 or more at the age of 35 or later: John Stockton.
Granted, Stockton did it six times, but the post-35 Stockton never had a year like Nash has put together this season. For starters, Utah managed Stockton's minutes carefully, but Nash is playing 33.5 minutes per game. Moreover, they're hard, active minutes as the engine for a Suns' offense lacking other players who can create their own shot. Second, he's doing it for one of the league's fastest-paced teams. Despite those added requirements, he has the best PER in history for a guard aged 35 or above.
About the only other historic parallel is Lenny Wilkens, who came to Cleveland at age 35 and helped an awful Cavs team become slightly less awful by averaging 20.5 points and 8.4 assists and making the All-Star team. But that was on a 50-game loser; Nash's team might win 50, and he's been their best player. It's unprecedented, and considering all the fawning over him in 2005 and 2006 -- when he wasn't playing any better than he is now -- it's getting shockingly little attention.
Ellis
Overrated: Monta Ellis
Ellis is almost the perfect prototype of an overrated player: He's a low-efficiency player who plays a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, so he ends up with gaudy per-game averages even though he's not advancing his team's cause much.
For starters, take the air out of his Golden State-generated stats and you're dealing with a much less impressive résumé. Ellis averages 26.2 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league and at first glance seems very impressive. But once you adjust for his league-leading 41.7 minutes per game and the hyper pace the Warriors play at, his scoring numbers look much more ordinary. On a per-minute basis, he's not even the best scorer on his own team -- that would be Corey Maggette.
Moreover, if you look at pace-adjusted points per minute, Ellis isn't 6th ... or even 16th. He ranks a mere 18th, placing behind former teammates Jamal Crawford and Al Harrington, among others.
Meanwhile, his efficiency numbers are brutal. Ellis ranks in the bottom half of shooting guards in true shooting percentage, but what's worse is that he doesn't create offense for others. Among shooting guards who have played at least 1,000 minutes, only one -- Denver's J.R. Smith -- has a worse pure point rating than Ellis.
I point out Ellis' startlingly poor offensive efficiency because it's of more than merely academic interest. I'm still dreading he'll be chosen as an All-Star sub (if his own knee injury suffered Monday night isn't serious) since about half of the Western Conference team seems to be on the verge of pulling out of the game, and the lure of the scoring average may be too much for the commissioner to resist.
(That said, an equally awful choice would be Houston's Aaron Brooks, and I've heard as much momentum for picking him as for taking Ellis. Baron Davis is still miles better than both of them even while taking every third night off; he's the obvious choice here. Unfortunately, the league may be reluctant to take a second Clipper, meaning the botched Kaman pick will lead to an equally idiotic outcome in the backcourt.)
Bogut
Underrated: Andrew Bogut
Well, let's put it this way: He's been better than Chris Kaman. I left him off my All-Star team, but I think he may have moved past New York's David Lee in the competition to be chosen as a sub. Milwaukee is making a legitimate push to squeeze into the postseason -- my projections have them finishing 42-40 -- which would be a huge development for a team that was thought to be about half a notch above New Jersey before the season started.
Bogut is an underrated key at both ends. Offensively, he's become a go-to guy for the Bucks, thanks to an improving series of jump-hook moves in the lane; he averages 19.7 points per 40 minutes, with reasonable efficiency, and has dramatically cut his turnover rate from last season's unacceptably high levels. He's even making foul shots once in a while, converting a career-best 64.0 percent.
Meanwhile, he's been a key to the Bucks' defense despite an inability to challenge shots at the rim. Bogut specializes in taking charges and plays physical post defense, helping the Bucks rank eighth in the NBA in defensive efficiency despite the fairly limited defensive assets on the Milwaukee roster.
______________________________________________________
Funnily enough, Hollinger seems to think that two of the players we were linked to trade rumors about (Monta Ellis and Kirk Hinrich) are overrated.
Overrated and underrated storylines
PER Diem: Feb. 9, 2010
Comment Email Print Share
Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Chris KamanJoe Murphy/NBAE/Getty ImagesNothing against the Clippers' Chris Kaman, who is having a strong season, but is he really an All-Star?
Sometimes narratives take on a life of their own. For instance, let's say there's a player who we'll call "Chris." Let's say "Chris" has a bad year in 2008-09, missing a bunch of games with an injury and playing poorly in many of the others.
Let's say, further, that Chris gets in great shape the following offseason, shows up with a much-improved face-up game and a renewed zeal for scoring in the post, and puts together his best season as a pro. It's a great story, right?
But we can never stop there. We can't just say Chris had a good season ... we have to take it a step further and start campaigning to put him on the All-Star team. "But it's such a good story!" we argue. "How can you ignore it?"
And it is a good story, and it makes us feel really jolly. Except there's another half we don't consider -- that maybe there's another player, or even several players, who have played better than Chris. These other guys have been starved for attention, relatively, because we expected them to be good in the first place. As a result, there's no great story to be told, and thus no reason to start a let's-put-him-in-the-All-Star-Game campaign, but in truth they're more deserving.
If you haven't figured it out yet, "Chris" in this case is Clippers big man Chris Kaman, whom the commissioner selected as an injury replacement to the All-Star team Monday despite the fact that Carlos Boozer, Marc Gasol, Nene and Andrew Bynum are all having better years. Kaman is a great story, yes, but he's also third in PER on a team that's 21-29.
As a result, Kaman becomes our lead item in today's theme: A look at who and what are overrated and underrated so far this season.
With Kaman out of the way, let's take a look at a few other stories that are getting way too much (or too little) attention:
Kirilenko
Underrated: The Revival of AK-47
When we talk about players who merit consideration for one of the several All-Star spots likely to come open in the Western Conference, I'm surprised Andrei Kirilenko hasn't received more attention. Right now, his bad haircut is getting more airtime than his stellar play, and that's unfortunate.
One of the big reasons behind Utah's recent change in the standings, and in particular the Jazz's improved defensive play, is that Kirilenko has suddenly reverted to his mid-2000s form. Over the past eight games, he's averaging 18.6 points per game and shooting a scalding 72.1 percent from the floor.
That's impressive enough, but what's really notable is how he's filling out the rest of the stat sheet with six rebounds, three assists, two steals and two blocks per game. It's a throwback to his "5x5" days, except now he's hitting midrange jumpers consistently. Kirilenko's impact has been notable on D, too -- Utah gives up 6.8 points fewer per 100 possessions with him on the court.
As a result, he's been more than able to offset Utah's other issues on the wings -- the nondevelopment of Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles, for instance, or the injury to Kyle Korver -- and provide a reliable wingman for the Deron Williams-Carlos Boozer star tandem.
Dumars
Overrated: Joe Dumars
Let's look ourselves in the mirror, fellow media members: We've all given the guy a free pass because of his amazing run to six straight conference finals and blithely ignored the fact that he's screwed up a hundred ways from Tuesday since he decided to whack Flip Saunders after the 2008 conference finals.
Check out the résumé and find me a correct decision. Just one. Fire Saunders? Wrong. Hire Michael Curry? Wrong. Trade Chauncey Billups? Wrong. Extend Richard Hamilton? Wrong. Sign Kwame Brown? Wrong. Go after Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva? Wrong again.
In two years, the Pistons have gone from one of the best teams in basketball to among the worst. They stink, they're capped out, and they don't have much in the way of young talent; for all we know, in two years they're going to be the Pittsburgh Pisces or the Seattle Grunge or something. If Isiah Thomas or Rob Babcock had done this, we'd have buried them alive by now, so it's only fair for us to point out that regardless of his previous track record, Dumars is on a two-year losing streak of McHalian proportions.
Mohammed
Underrated: Nazr Mohammed
I'm going to keep talking about this 'til I'm blue in the face because nobody else seems to be catching on to Mohammed's dramatic career turnaround this season. Yes, Cap'n Jack has made an impact; yes, coach Larry Brown has these guys defending like never before; and yes, Gerald Wallace is showing the full arsenal now that he's finally staying healthy.
But I would argue Mohammed is a bigger story than those other guys, and absolutely nobody is talking about him. He was left for dead at the end of the bench last season, and this season he's been killing. The Bobcats lost Tyson Chandler and immediately embarked on a winning streak because Mohammed started channeling Dave Cowens -- how about 23 and 17 against Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, or the fact he's averaging 20.2 points and 12.0 boards per 40 minutes, or that he's shooting 57.3 percent from the field?
Mohammed has been playing only 20-25 minutes a game, which has kept his numbers down and prevented more people from noticing him. While I don't think he's quite this good, I've always believed him to be underrated because of his knack on the boards and ugly-but-effective 10-to-12-foot jumper.
Hinrich
Overrated: Kirk Hinrich
I get about 20 e-mail questions a day about Hinrich, which might make sense if he had made a basket at any time in the last month. He is making more than $9 million this season and is shooting 37.7 percent, leaving me scratching my head wondering why fans of other teams still clamor for him.
It's not like this season is some dramatic outlier -- he's shot 41.3 percent for his career. His PERs the past three seasons are 13.41, 13.97 and 10.24, and, I repeat, he makes an average salary of $9 million a year -- not just this year, but next year, and the year after that, when he's 31. Sure, he's an accomplished wing defender, and that has value. But do you really want to kill your team's cap/tax situation by paying this guy star money to shoot bricks and play defense when similar players can be found for a fraction of the price?
Overrated: Steve Nash at 30
Hang on ...
Nash
Underrated: Steve Nash at 35
Steve Nash at 30 was a Big Story. Steve Nash at 35 isn't. But what Steve Nash is doing at 35 is way, way, way more amazing than what Steve Nash did at 30.
For starters, you'd have a hard time proving that the 35-year-old Nash is any worse than the 30-year-old Nash. Compared to his first MVP season in 2004-05, Nash is averaging three more points a game, providing just as many assists and rebounds per minute, and shooting better on 2s, 3s and free throws. He has a good shot at establishing a new career high in PER, not to mention becoming the first player in history to set a career high in scoring at age 35 or older.
Now that we've got that out of the way, go through the archives and find a point guard who did anywhere near as well at Nash's age. I'll just wait here for you to get back to me. ... Still waiting. ... Anything? No?
Truth is, no point guard in history can touch Nash's performance this season. In fact, only one guard prior to Nash has had a PER of 20 or more at the age of 35 or later: John Stockton.
Granted, Stockton did it six times, but the post-35 Stockton never had a year like Nash has put together this season. For starters, Utah managed Stockton's minutes carefully, but Nash is playing 33.5 minutes per game. Moreover, they're hard, active minutes as the engine for a Suns' offense lacking other players who can create their own shot. Second, he's doing it for one of the league's fastest-paced teams. Despite those added requirements, he has the best PER in history for a guard aged 35 or above.
About the only other historic parallel is Lenny Wilkens, who came to Cleveland at age 35 and helped an awful Cavs team become slightly less awful by averaging 20.5 points and 8.4 assists and making the All-Star team. But that was on a 50-game loser; Nash's team might win 50, and he's been their best player. It's unprecedented, and considering all the fawning over him in 2005 and 2006 -- when he wasn't playing any better than he is now -- it's getting shockingly little attention.
Ellis
Overrated: Monta Ellis
Ellis is almost the perfect prototype of an overrated player: He's a low-efficiency player who plays a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, so he ends up with gaudy per-game averages even though he's not advancing his team's cause much.
For starters, take the air out of his Golden State-generated stats and you're dealing with a much less impressive résumé. Ellis averages 26.2 points per game, which ranks sixth in the league and at first glance seems very impressive. But once you adjust for his league-leading 41.7 minutes per game and the hyper pace the Warriors play at, his scoring numbers look much more ordinary. On a per-minute basis, he's not even the best scorer on his own team -- that would be Corey Maggette.
Moreover, if you look at pace-adjusted points per minute, Ellis isn't 6th ... or even 16th. He ranks a mere 18th, placing behind former teammates Jamal Crawford and Al Harrington, among others.
Meanwhile, his efficiency numbers are brutal. Ellis ranks in the bottom half of shooting guards in true shooting percentage, but what's worse is that he doesn't create offense for others. Among shooting guards who have played at least 1,000 minutes, only one -- Denver's J.R. Smith -- has a worse pure point rating than Ellis.
I point out Ellis' startlingly poor offensive efficiency because it's of more than merely academic interest. I'm still dreading he'll be chosen as an All-Star sub (if his own knee injury suffered Monday night isn't serious) since about half of the Western Conference team seems to be on the verge of pulling out of the game, and the lure of the scoring average may be too much for the commissioner to resist.
(That said, an equally awful choice would be Houston's Aaron Brooks, and I've heard as much momentum for picking him as for taking Ellis. Baron Davis is still miles better than both of them even while taking every third night off; he's the obvious choice here. Unfortunately, the league may be reluctant to take a second Clipper, meaning the botched Kaman pick will lead to an equally idiotic outcome in the backcourt.)
Bogut
Underrated: Andrew Bogut
Well, let's put it this way: He's been better than Chris Kaman. I left him off my All-Star team, but I think he may have moved past New York's David Lee in the competition to be chosen as a sub. Milwaukee is making a legitimate push to squeeze into the postseason -- my projections have them finishing 42-40 -- which would be a huge development for a team that was thought to be about half a notch above New Jersey before the season started.
Bogut is an underrated key at both ends. Offensively, he's become a go-to guy for the Bucks, thanks to an improving series of jump-hook moves in the lane; he averages 19.7 points per 40 minutes, with reasonable efficiency, and has dramatically cut his turnover rate from last season's unacceptably high levels. He's even making foul shots once in a while, converting a career-best 64.0 percent.
Meanwhile, he's been a key to the Bucks' defense despite an inability to challenge shots at the rim. Bogut specializes in taking charges and plays physical post defense, helping the Bucks rank eighth in the NBA in defensive efficiency despite the fairly limited defensive assets on the Milwaukee roster.
______________________________________________________
Funnily enough, Hollinger seems to think that two of the players we were linked to trade rumors about (Monta Ellis and Kirk Hinrich) are overrated.