Post by FLCeltsFan on Feb 2, 2010 12:21:19 GMT -5
Time to be concerned about Celtics
PER Diem: Feb. 2, 2010Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images
With the Celtics struggling over their last 18 games, this could be the last stand for Boston's Big Three.
I wrote about the Spurs' recent spinning of their tires on Monday, but it's amazing how many contending teams I can say the same thing about. The Spurs are a disappointing 8-8 since Jan. 1, but so is Dallas. They have company: Orlando is 10-9 since Christmas, and Atlanta is 10-9 in its past 19 games as well. Phoenix is 15-18 after starting the season 14-3, and Portland is 8-8 since Christmas. Even the Lakers are a very mortal 9-6 in their past 15 contests.
Suffice it to say I have an array of targets from which to choose for a "What's wrong with Team X?" column.
But those clubs' struggles feel a bit like random January doldrums. In the case of one other team, we can't be so sure. Boston is 7-11 in its past 18 games after Monday night's win in Washington, and one has to wonder whether the team as presently composed is capable of winning a championship. Watching the Celtics lose three straight against fellow contenders Orlando, Atlanta and Los Angeles -- two of which I attended in person -- left a decidedly negative impression.
It wasn't that they lost, necessarily. In fact, all three losses were close, and since two of them were on the road and one was against the league's defending champs, the losses by themselves hardly denote damning evidence of the Celtics' title hopes.
Look deeper, and the optimists still have a case. Most elements of Boston's performance haven't changed one iota from last season. The Celtics are leading the league in defensive efficiency once again, and even with Kevin Garnett noticeably dragging his leg at times, they're defending far better with him on the court than off it; Boston allows 7.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, according to 82games.com. About the only vulnerability we've seen is a profusion of second shots for opponents -- the Celtics are 16th in defensive rebound rate.
Offensively, they're much the same team, too. The Celtics still win with high-percentage shooting, ranking third in true shooting percentage, and lose because they make crazy amounts of turnovers -- they have the league's second-worst turnover rate.
Those numbers are hardly different from last season, when Boston won 62 games and was a threat to win the title right up until Garnett checked out of the lineup for good late in the season. Even with the recent swoon, the Celtics have the league's third-best scoring margin behind L.A. and Cleveland.
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Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
Looking for the official word? Age looks like it's catching up to Rasheed Wallace and Ray Allen.
So what's the problem?
In the end, this is as much a subjective call as an objective one. On the surface, everything seems fine, but warning signs are all over the place if you look hard enough. That's especially true with the offense, which ranks only 13th in efficiency. There's an obvious reason: Four of Boston's top six players are in their mid-30s and fading fast.
Garnett is the most obvious case, and since I wrote about him Thursday night, I won't drag the dead horse out for another beating. But what of Ray Allen? He's shooting only 34.1 percent on 3-pointers, well off his career mark of 39.8 percent entering the season. The probability of this happening by random chance is only 4.6 percent, so we have to consider the possibility that there's been a loss of ability here for the 34-year-old guard.
Even if his 3-point shooting numbers bounce back, his overall body of work is worrisome. Allen's other numbers are slightly worse across the board, too, and his splits are those of a tired vet -- instead of ramping up his numbers when Garnett went out earlier this month, for instance, he averaged fewer points and assists per minute in January than in the first two months and shot 31.9 percent on 3s.
Rasheed Wallace is in a similar funk, channeling his inner Antoine Walker by hoisting more than half his shots from beyond the 3-point line but converting only 30.1 percent. Wallace also seems noticeably out of shape, and at this point, it's fair to argue we set our expectations too high. He put up similar numbers last season in Detroit, and it now seems optimistic to expect a 35-year-old to revert to the production from earlier in his career.
Even the 32-year-old Paul Pierce has shown his warts. Right now, his numbers seem like those of the previous two seasons largely because of his league-leading 46.7 percent on 3-pointers, but that figure is almost certain to regress to his long-term average in the second half of the season; he shot 39 percent each of the previous three seasons. Meanwhile, he's generating fewer shots and relying more on the long ball. Pierce also hurt his foot in Monday night's win, although the setback isn't expected to be serious.
Because of Boston's struggles, a lot of fans are wondering whether the team will consider a major trade, with Allen -- who has an expiring contract worth nearly $20 million -- drawing particular attention. But it seems to me a team that has gone all in as far as Boston would seek to upgrade the supporting cast first. With $10 million in expiring contracts not including Allen's, it would be fairly easy for the Celtics to concoct a deal that shipped out secondary assets (Brian Scalabrine, J.R. Giddens, Eddie House, etc.) for a quality role player with a longer contract, like Chicago's Kirk Hinrich.
The second unit, in fact, might be as much to blame for Boston's struggles as the woes of the Big Three. With Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels battling injuries and inconsistency, House unable to find his stroke and Wallace clanging 3s, the only consistent performer has been Tony Allen.
Regardless, watching the starters provokes the greatest concern, especially with the visual of Garnett so obviously playing on one leg. While Boston can overcome a lot of physical problems with its smarts, toughness and defensive acumen, one has to wonder whether the recent struggles aren't the canary in the coal mine.
As noted above, a lot of the Celtics' season numbers are fine, and I'm sure they still can win 50-plus games and make the second round of the playoffs. Whether they can do anything beyond that with the present roster, however, seems very much in doubt, and it makes Boston a surprisingly interesting team to watch heading into the trade deadline.
PER Diem: Feb. 2, 2010Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Brian Babineau/NBAE/Getty Images
With the Celtics struggling over their last 18 games, this could be the last stand for Boston's Big Three.
I wrote about the Spurs' recent spinning of their tires on Monday, but it's amazing how many contending teams I can say the same thing about. The Spurs are a disappointing 8-8 since Jan. 1, but so is Dallas. They have company: Orlando is 10-9 since Christmas, and Atlanta is 10-9 in its past 19 games as well. Phoenix is 15-18 after starting the season 14-3, and Portland is 8-8 since Christmas. Even the Lakers are a very mortal 9-6 in their past 15 contests.
Suffice it to say I have an array of targets from which to choose for a "What's wrong with Team X?" column.
But those clubs' struggles feel a bit like random January doldrums. In the case of one other team, we can't be so sure. Boston is 7-11 in its past 18 games after Monday night's win in Washington, and one has to wonder whether the team as presently composed is capable of winning a championship. Watching the Celtics lose three straight against fellow contenders Orlando, Atlanta and Los Angeles -- two of which I attended in person -- left a decidedly negative impression.
It wasn't that they lost, necessarily. In fact, all three losses were close, and since two of them were on the road and one was against the league's defending champs, the losses by themselves hardly denote damning evidence of the Celtics' title hopes.
Look deeper, and the optimists still have a case. Most elements of Boston's performance haven't changed one iota from last season. The Celtics are leading the league in defensive efficiency once again, and even with Kevin Garnett noticeably dragging his leg at times, they're defending far better with him on the court than off it; Boston allows 7.4 points per 100 possessions less with him on the court, according to 82games.com. About the only vulnerability we've seen is a profusion of second shots for opponents -- the Celtics are 16th in defensive rebound rate.
Offensively, they're much the same team, too. The Celtics still win with high-percentage shooting, ranking third in true shooting percentage, and lose because they make crazy amounts of turnovers -- they have the league's second-worst turnover rate.
Those numbers are hardly different from last season, when Boston won 62 games and was a threat to win the title right up until Garnett checked out of the lineup for good late in the season. Even with the recent swoon, the Celtics have the league's third-best scoring margin behind L.A. and Cleveland.
[+] Enlarge
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
Looking for the official word? Age looks like it's catching up to Rasheed Wallace and Ray Allen.
So what's the problem?
In the end, this is as much a subjective call as an objective one. On the surface, everything seems fine, but warning signs are all over the place if you look hard enough. That's especially true with the offense, which ranks only 13th in efficiency. There's an obvious reason: Four of Boston's top six players are in their mid-30s and fading fast.
Garnett is the most obvious case, and since I wrote about him Thursday night, I won't drag the dead horse out for another beating. But what of Ray Allen? He's shooting only 34.1 percent on 3-pointers, well off his career mark of 39.8 percent entering the season. The probability of this happening by random chance is only 4.6 percent, so we have to consider the possibility that there's been a loss of ability here for the 34-year-old guard.
Even if his 3-point shooting numbers bounce back, his overall body of work is worrisome. Allen's other numbers are slightly worse across the board, too, and his splits are those of a tired vet -- instead of ramping up his numbers when Garnett went out earlier this month, for instance, he averaged fewer points and assists per minute in January than in the first two months and shot 31.9 percent on 3s.
Rasheed Wallace is in a similar funk, channeling his inner Antoine Walker by hoisting more than half his shots from beyond the 3-point line but converting only 30.1 percent. Wallace also seems noticeably out of shape, and at this point, it's fair to argue we set our expectations too high. He put up similar numbers last season in Detroit, and it now seems optimistic to expect a 35-year-old to revert to the production from earlier in his career.
Even the 32-year-old Paul Pierce has shown his warts. Right now, his numbers seem like those of the previous two seasons largely because of his league-leading 46.7 percent on 3-pointers, but that figure is almost certain to regress to his long-term average in the second half of the season; he shot 39 percent each of the previous three seasons. Meanwhile, he's generating fewer shots and relying more on the long ball. Pierce also hurt his foot in Monday night's win, although the setback isn't expected to be serious.
Because of Boston's struggles, a lot of fans are wondering whether the team will consider a major trade, with Allen -- who has an expiring contract worth nearly $20 million -- drawing particular attention. But it seems to me a team that has gone all in as far as Boston would seek to upgrade the supporting cast first. With $10 million in expiring contracts not including Allen's, it would be fairly easy for the Celtics to concoct a deal that shipped out secondary assets (Brian Scalabrine, J.R. Giddens, Eddie House, etc.) for a quality role player with a longer contract, like Chicago's Kirk Hinrich.
The second unit, in fact, might be as much to blame for Boston's struggles as the woes of the Big Three. With Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels battling injuries and inconsistency, House unable to find his stroke and Wallace clanging 3s, the only consistent performer has been Tony Allen.
Regardless, watching the starters provokes the greatest concern, especially with the visual of Garnett so obviously playing on one leg. While Boston can overcome a lot of physical problems with its smarts, toughness and defensive acumen, one has to wonder whether the recent struggles aren't the canary in the coal mine.
As noted above, a lot of the Celtics' season numbers are fine, and I'm sure they still can win 50-plus games and make the second round of the playoffs. Whether they can do anything beyond that with the present roster, however, seems very much in doubt, and it makes Boston a surprisingly interesting team to watch heading into the trade deadline.
