Post by jrmzt on Jan 26, 2010 16:55:41 GMT -5
Updated: January 26, 2010, 1:07 PM ET
Would every team take John Wall?
The Kentucky guard is the consensus No. 1 pick -- now which lucky team gets him?
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Ford By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
Archive
________________________________________________________
Let's call it what it is: the John Wall Lottery.
Some of the best sports debates in recent years have centered on the NBA draft, but this year, for the second straight season, there is no debate: Unless something unforeseen happens, Kentucky point guard John Wall will be the first player to hear his name called at the June 24 draft.
A number of NBA GMs say that short of LeBron James and Dwight Howard, there hasn't been a prospect in recent years with Wall's upside.
With the debut of our annual Lottery + Mock Draft, I spoke to scouts and executives from almost every team projected to be in the lottery. As expected, all of them would take Wall No. 1, even those teams that already have a star point guard.
So how would Wall fit on the 14 lottery teams? Let's look.
New Jersey Nets
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
The Nets have Devin Harris, a 2009 All-Star, running the point, but they love the idea of Wall as their point guard of the future. In fact, the team has already begun exploring the possibility of trading Harris. While a trade before the February 18 deadline is unlikely, if the Nets win the lottery, you can expect the Harris trade talk to heat up.
Also, as you've heard, the Nets are on course to have plenty of salary-cap space this summer. Would the combination of Wall, Brook Lopez, a prospective new owner with money to burn, and a future move to Brooklyn be enough to lure LeBron James out of Cleveland? If LeBron wants to play alongside a future superstar, that option might be tempting.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
The Wolves used two lottery picks on point guards last season, so why would they take a third this year? That's easy: Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio aren't John Wall. You'd have to combine their talents (adding Rubio's size and floor vision to Flynn's energy, athleticism and scoring knack) to equal Wall.
If the Wolves are fortunate enough to land Wall, then Rubio and Flynn will become valuable trading chips. Both players should be able to fetch a high price -- either another lottery pick or a young prospect -- to help the Wolves fill their holes at shooting guard and center.
Golden State Warriors
Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
Seven months ago, the Warriors drafted their point guard of the future, Stephen Curry, and they still have super-scorer Monta Ellis, who at times has been considered the Warriors' point guard of the future.
That said, Wall's talent is too great for the Warriors to pass on -- he's bigger and more athletic than Curry (though he lacks Curry's shooting stroke) and he sees the floor much better than Ellis. The Warriors would draft Wall and then try to figure out whether the three could play together.
Washington Wizards
Odds of winning the lottery: 11.9 percent
The Gilbert Arenas situation makes this an easy decision in Washington. While the Wizards still owe Arenas more than $80 million, his future with the team is in serious doubt. If they don't void his contract after his felony conviction, they'll attempt to trade him. Wall would be an ideal foundation for a long and difficult rebuilding project in Washington.
Philadelphia 76ers
Odds of winning the lottery: 8.8 percent
The Sixers are another team that desperately needs Wall, especially since losing Andre Miller has been a major blow. Lou Williams is a nice player, but not a true point guard, and while Jrue Holiday has a promising future, he isn't in the same league with Wall.
If the Sixers manage to hang on to Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young through the trade deadline and then land Wall in the lottery, they'll be right back into playoff contention next season.
Detroit Pistons
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.5 percent*
The Pistons banked their future on third-year point guard Rodney Stuckey when they traded away Chauncey Billups, but they wouldn't hesitate to draft Wall.
While Wall would give the Pistons a very crowded backcourt, Stuckey, with his size and scoring ability, could slide over and play alongside Wall or become a valuable trade chip to help the Pistons get some size.
Sacramento Kings
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.5 percent*
The Kings say 2009 lottery pick Tyreke Evans is their point guard of the future, but they'd quickly abandon than plan and move Evans over if they won the 2010 lottery. Wall and Evans together would eventually dominate the NBA's other backcourts.
Indiana Pacers
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent
Of the teams with the best shot at landing Wall, the Pacers have the greatest need at point guard. Neither Earl Watson nor A.J. Price is the answer, and T.J. Ford has been benched.
Plus, the Pacers desperately need another star to pair with Danny Granger. Adding Wall would immediately change the direction of the franchise.
Utah Jazz (via Knicks)
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent
Jazz fans have been hoping the Knicks would bottom out and make this a high-lottery pick, but the Knicks have been better than expected lately, and that has seriously harmed Utah's chances of winning the lottery. And of course, the Jazz already have a star point guard in Deron Williams.
Still, if the Jazz did strike gold, they would take Wall. Yes, Williams is the better player right now and one of the top point guards in the league. But Wall has the potential to be even better.
I think Jerry Sloan would find a way to pair them. But if he couldn't, Williams would command a huge price on the trade market. Either way, Utah wins.
Milwaukee Bucks
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent
Milwaukee winning the lottery would present an awkward situation, given the excitement that Brandon Jennings has created.
Could Wall and Jennings play together? While I can see Wall fitting in with almost anyone, I'm not sure how well he and Jennings could play together.
That would make the Bucks one of the very few teams that might be willing to trade away the No. 1 pick this year. Or, given that Wall appears to be an even better talent than Jennings, they could explore Jennings' trade value.
Los Angeles Clippers
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
The Clippers can't get that lucky two years in a row, can they? But if they did land Wall to run alongside Blake Griffin, assuming Griffin can get healthy, they would eventually challenge the Lakers for L.A. supremacy.
New Orleans Hornets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
Scouts are saying that Wall is the best point guard prospect to come into the draft since Chris Paul, but no one's ready to say he's better than Paul, given CP3's amazing start to his NBA career.
I think Paul and Wall could coexist -- in fact, I think they'd be incredible together. But at the same time, winning the lottery would open the door for New Orleans to explore the trade value of both the pick and Paul as a way to bring in another star to play with Paul or Wall.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
If the Thunder manage to put Wall with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Seattle fans may never recover. While some may say that Westbrook and Wall are too similar, I think they could coexist. Westbrook is more a scoring guard than a pure point guard, and Wall can be spectacular just running the show.
Houston Rockets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
The Rockets like Aaron Brooks, but he's not in the same league as Wall, who could make the Rockets a contender, with Brooks as a potent scorer off the bench.
* Pistons and Kings have same record; Hornets, Thunder and Rockets have same record
______________________________________________________
Would every team take John Wall?
The Kentucky guard is the consensus No. 1 pick -- now which lucky team gets him?
Comment Email Print Share
Ford By Chad Ford
ESPN.com
Archive
________________________________________________________
Let's call it what it is: the John Wall Lottery.
Some of the best sports debates in recent years have centered on the NBA draft, but this year, for the second straight season, there is no debate: Unless something unforeseen happens, Kentucky point guard John Wall will be the first player to hear his name called at the June 24 draft.
A number of NBA GMs say that short of LeBron James and Dwight Howard, there hasn't been a prospect in recent years with Wall's upside.
With the debut of our annual Lottery + Mock Draft, I spoke to scouts and executives from almost every team projected to be in the lottery. As expected, all of them would take Wall No. 1, even those teams that already have a star point guard.
So how would Wall fit on the 14 lottery teams? Let's look.
New Jersey Nets
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
The Nets have Devin Harris, a 2009 All-Star, running the point, but they love the idea of Wall as their point guard of the future. In fact, the team has already begun exploring the possibility of trading Harris. While a trade before the February 18 deadline is unlikely, if the Nets win the lottery, you can expect the Harris trade talk to heat up.
Also, as you've heard, the Nets are on course to have plenty of salary-cap space this summer. Would the combination of Wall, Brook Lopez, a prospective new owner with money to burn, and a future move to Brooklyn be enough to lure LeBron James out of Cleveland? If LeBron wants to play alongside a future superstar, that option might be tempting.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
The Wolves used two lottery picks on point guards last season, so why would they take a third this year? That's easy: Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio aren't John Wall. You'd have to combine their talents (adding Rubio's size and floor vision to Flynn's energy, athleticism and scoring knack) to equal Wall.
If the Wolves are fortunate enough to land Wall, then Rubio and Flynn will become valuable trading chips. Both players should be able to fetch a high price -- either another lottery pick or a young prospect -- to help the Wolves fill their holes at shooting guard and center.
Golden State Warriors
Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
Seven months ago, the Warriors drafted their point guard of the future, Stephen Curry, and they still have super-scorer Monta Ellis, who at times has been considered the Warriors' point guard of the future.
That said, Wall's talent is too great for the Warriors to pass on -- he's bigger and more athletic than Curry (though he lacks Curry's shooting stroke) and he sees the floor much better than Ellis. The Warriors would draft Wall and then try to figure out whether the three could play together.
Washington Wizards
Odds of winning the lottery: 11.9 percent
The Gilbert Arenas situation makes this an easy decision in Washington. While the Wizards still owe Arenas more than $80 million, his future with the team is in serious doubt. If they don't void his contract after his felony conviction, they'll attempt to trade him. Wall would be an ideal foundation for a long and difficult rebuilding project in Washington.
Philadelphia 76ers
Odds of winning the lottery: 8.8 percent
The Sixers are another team that desperately needs Wall, especially since losing Andre Miller has been a major blow. Lou Williams is a nice player, but not a true point guard, and while Jrue Holiday has a promising future, he isn't in the same league with Wall.
If the Sixers manage to hang on to Andre Iguodala and Thaddeus Young through the trade deadline and then land Wall in the lottery, they'll be right back into playoff contention next season.
Detroit Pistons
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.5 percent*
The Pistons banked their future on third-year point guard Rodney Stuckey when they traded away Chauncey Billups, but they wouldn't hesitate to draft Wall.
While Wall would give the Pistons a very crowded backcourt, Stuckey, with his size and scoring ability, could slide over and play alongside Wall or become a valuable trade chip to help the Pistons get some size.
Sacramento Kings
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.5 percent*
The Kings say 2009 lottery pick Tyreke Evans is their point guard of the future, but they'd quickly abandon than plan and move Evans over if they won the 2010 lottery. Wall and Evans together would eventually dominate the NBA's other backcourts.
Indiana Pacers
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent
Of the teams with the best shot at landing Wall, the Pacers have the greatest need at point guard. Neither Earl Watson nor A.J. Price is the answer, and T.J. Ford has been benched.
Plus, the Pacers desperately need another star to pair with Danny Granger. Adding Wall would immediately change the direction of the franchise.
Utah Jazz (via Knicks)
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent
Jazz fans have been hoping the Knicks would bottom out and make this a high-lottery pick, but the Knicks have been better than expected lately, and that has seriously harmed Utah's chances of winning the lottery. And of course, the Jazz already have a star point guard in Deron Williams.
Still, if the Jazz did strike gold, they would take Wall. Yes, Williams is the better player right now and one of the top point guards in the league. But Wall has the potential to be even better.
I think Jerry Sloan would find a way to pair them. But if he couldn't, Williams would command a huge price on the trade market. Either way, Utah wins.
Milwaukee Bucks
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent
Milwaukee winning the lottery would present an awkward situation, given the excitement that Brandon Jennings has created.
Could Wall and Jennings play together? While I can see Wall fitting in with almost anyone, I'm not sure how well he and Jennings could play together.
That would make the Bucks one of the very few teams that might be willing to trade away the No. 1 pick this year. Or, given that Wall appears to be an even better talent than Jennings, they could explore Jennings' trade value.
Los Angeles Clippers
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
The Clippers can't get that lucky two years in a row, can they? But if they did land Wall to run alongside Blake Griffin, assuming Griffin can get healthy, they would eventually challenge the Lakers for L.A. supremacy.
New Orleans Hornets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
Scouts are saying that Wall is the best point guard prospect to come into the draft since Chris Paul, but no one's ready to say he's better than Paul, given CP3's amazing start to his NBA career.
I think Paul and Wall could coexist -- in fact, I think they'd be incredible together. But at the same time, winning the lottery would open the door for New Orleans to explore the trade value of both the pick and Paul as a way to bring in another star to play with Paul or Wall.
Oklahoma City Thunder
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
If the Thunder manage to put Wall with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Seattle fans may never recover. While some may say that Westbrook and Wall are too similar, I think they could coexist. Westbrook is more a scoring guard than a pure point guard, and Wall can be spectacular just running the show.
Houston Rockets
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent*
The Rockets like Aaron Brooks, but he's not in the same league as Wall, who could make the Rockets a contender, with Brooks as a potent scorer off the bench.
* Pistons and Kings have same record; Hornets, Thunder and Rockets have same record
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