Post by FLCeltsFan on Jan 19, 2010 14:07:51 GMT -5
Hollinger's All-Star startersPER Diem: Jan. 18, 2010Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
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Steve Nash, Kevin Durant and Rajon Rondo should start the All-Star Game, says John Hollinger.
Before I pick my starters for the 2010 All-Star Game, let's start with a plea to the league: Change the ballot.
This has been a common refrain this winter because two undeserving players -- Philadelphia's Allen Iverson and Houston's Tracy McGrady -- are among the leading vote-getters in the fan balloting. Internet voting from the numerous fans in China reportedly is the culprit, as McGrady has said. (Although we in the U.S. have also proven capable of making poor choices when the balloting was strictly domestic.)
But my proposal isn't about voting in China. And even if enacted, my plan might still result in McGrady and Iverson starting.
It would, however, do something about the third player who has no business starting the All-Star Game: Amare Stoudemire. This season, the drafters of the ballot were once again forced to list Tim Duncan as a forward even though there's no sensible reason for placing him there, and unlike past years, it's going to matter. With Yao Ming out of the running because of injury, Stoudemire (creatively listed at center even though he plays power forward) is the vote leader at center in the Western Conference balloting. If Duncan had also been listed as a 5, I suspect he would have won easily.
As a result, Stoudemire is taking one of the 12 coveted spots on the Western roster, and in turn, some deserving player -- Deron Williams, say, or perhaps Carl Landry -- will end up left out of the All-Star Game.
Unlike the problems leading to the inclusion of Iverson and McGrady, this problem is easily fixable. But my proposed change goes much deeper than "list Duncan at center." Right now, the ballot is set up the way teams played in the mid-'60s, with two spots for small players listed as "guards," two for medium-sized "forwards" and one for a behemoth center.
One problem: Few teams have lined up that way in the past 20 years.
Today, most teams play with a point guard, two wings and two bigs. For several clubs, there is virtually no distinction between the shooting guard and the small forward, nor between the power forward and center.
This forces the drafters of the All-Star ballot to make distinctions that aren't relevant in real life -- i.e., whether to list Duncan and Pau Gasol as a forward or a center, or whether to put the likes of McGrady and Vince Carter as a guard or a forward.
The problem may seem small, but it can ruin the event -- as it did last year when the East had lots of "forwards" but no "bigs" and was pounded mercilessly by the West frontcourt.
Things would be a lot easier if we could just list Duncan and Gasol as "bigs" and Kobe and Melo as "wings." As a result, there would be fewer dubious omissions from the ballot (Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph, for instance) because of the artificial constraint on big men.
So, NBA folks, hear me out: Change the ballot so it reflects how the game is played today.
OK, off my soapbox and on to the All-Stars themselves. Based on the constraints of the current ballot (i.e., I had to pick Duncan as a forward), here are the 10 players -- including one write-in who wasn't on the ballot -- whom I think are most deserving of starting in Dallas on Feb. 14.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Eastern Conference presents much easier choices than the West, as the starters at each of the five positions were fairly obvious picks.
Rondo
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo, Boston
The elite defensive point guard in basketball also has been the most productive one in the East. Rondo leads all Eastern point guards in PER at 19.78, and given that the next two East points on the PER list are Gilbert Arenas and Luke Ridnour, I'd say we can call this one an open-and-shut case. Just to cement his spot, Rondo has led the Celtics to the second-best record in the East thus far despite injuries to All-Star forwards Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Unfortunately, Iverson will usurp this spot in the fan voting.
Wade
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade, Miami
Another no-brainer. Wade may not be playing quite at the MVP-caliber level he was last season, but he's not too far off the pace, either. He's third in the NBA in PER (26.93) and second in estimated wins added -- pretty darned good for a guy who seems to be lacking some explosion compared to last season. As with Rondo, Wade benefits from the lack of competition at his spot: Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala are the closest competition, and they're only tiny specks in Wade's rearview mirror.
James
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland
James once again leads the league in PER -- with a mark that nearly doubles that of his closest competitors (Pierce and Indiana's Danny Granger) -- and has the Cavs on top of the Eastern Conference.
LeBron has also played in every game for Cleveland this season, averaging 38.6 minutes per contest and leading the league in estimated wins added, with 16.7.
Bosh
Power Forward: Chris Bosh, Toronto
Bosh can't be accused of lazing into his walk year -- his 26.43 PER ranks fourth in the NBA and is comfortably ahead of all other power forwards. Bosh is setting new career highs in points and rebounds per 40 minutes, shooting percentage and true shooting percentage, while helping the Raps push for a top-five seed in the East. While one would like to see him have more impact on defense, Garnett's injury leaves Bosh a great distance ahead of the field. Alas, it appears Garnett will win the fan voting for this spot.
Howard
Center: Dwight Howard, Orlando
As with Wade, I don't think Howard has been as good as he was last season. And as is the case with Wade, 90 percent of last season's Howard is still better than 100 percent of any other center this season. While New York's David Lee can nearly match Howard in offensive production, there's no comparison whatsoever on defense, as Howard is the linchpin of one of the league's best defensive teams. And even when he's not getting the rock, Howard never stops rebounding; he is once again leading the league in that category with 13.1 rebounds per game.
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WESTERN CONFERENCE
The West has a preponderance of the league's tarts, making the selection of its five best a bit more challenging. The ballot issues in this conference add to the fun, especially at the center spot. You'll see in a moment:
Nash
Point guard: Steve Nash, Suns
Choosing Nash over Chris Paul must be causing longtime readers to faint from shock. Make no mistake -- Paul is the better player. But he hasn't had a better first half of the season. While CP3 was on the sidelines with an injury for eight games, Nash was leading the Suns to a 14-3 start. And now he has Phoenix in position to grab a top-four seed in the West.
Nash has gained little recognition for his play compared to the lovefest surrounding him a few seasons ago, but this has actually been his best season. His 23.98 PER and 53.9 percent shooting mark are new career highs, and as my colleague Marc Stein points out, he's poised to become the first player ever to set a career high in scoring after age 35. In real life, this spot will go to McGrady, Nash or Paul, with the vote a virtual dead heat heading into the final days.
Bryant
Shooting guard: Kobe Bryant, Lakers
Bryant has been sabotaging his PER over the past two weeks by playing hurt and firing up bricks. But even so, he narrowly outranks Portland's Brandon Roy in that category (23.47 to 22.61). Even if he didn't, we are inclined to take him anyway based on his defense, his track record and the fact that he's made several game-winning shots this season. Bryant also earns props for engineering a dramatic change in his game to feature his post-up skills -- one that would likely be paying even bigger dividends if his mangled fingers could get the rock into the basket.
Durant
Small forward: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
This is the second-most difficult choice on the ballot, as Durant and Carmelo Anthony have essentially equal résumés. If somebody wanted to pick Carmelo, I don't think I could generate a strong enough case for Durant to change his mind. Of course, the opposite is also true.
Both players are high-volume scorers who constantly get to the line, rebound well for their position, have low assist rates and have substantially improved their once-laughable defense. Anthony leads the league in scoring while Durant is third, with the margin between them (0.9 points per game) close enough that either could end up first at season's end. Durant has shot more efficiently, helped by his 86.9 percent mark from the line, but Anthony has won more.
What it ultimately came down to for me was availability. Durant hasn't missed a game; Anthony has missed five. In a race this close, that matters, and it's why I give Durant the nod. Anthony fans needn't worry, however -- back in the real world, he's going to win the voting by a wide margin.
Duncan
Power forward: Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Regardless of position, Duncan is a no-brainer as an All-Star starter. He's probably been the MVP of the Western Conference in the first half of the season, keeping the Spurs afloat despite the unexpected struggles of Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson, and ranks second only to King James in PER (27.87). Coming off a season in which it appeared chronic knee problems would diminish his productivity going forward, he's been among the first half's most pleasant surprises.
How good has Duncan been? He leads all Western Conference big men in estimated wins added despite playing only 32 minutes a game and sitting out three games. It's just unfortunate that he's on the ballot at power forward, because we could have used Duncan as the starting center and listed Dirk Nowitzki (who likely will beat out Duncan in the fan voting) as a starter at forward. Instead we have to do this:
Randolph
Center: Zach Randolph, Memphis
You got a better idea? Look at the ballot. The two best centers in the West (Duncan and Pau Gasol) both appear on the ballot at power forward. Beyond them, we have a series of unappealing candidates. Nene, Andrew Bynum and Kaman all are having nice seasons, but it's questionable whether any has been good enough to claw his way in as the West's 12th man … much less as a starter. The underrated Marc Gasol is a favorite around these parts, but it's tough to nominate him as the West's starter when he's neither the best center in his own family nor the best big man on his own team. Greg Oden might have worked here, but he's out for the season.
The obvious option, then, is to turn the tables on the ballot authors by writing in a power forward at the center spot. This isn't a big stretch considering that (A) a power forward is going to win the voting at the center spot, and (B) Randolph can easily slide over to the 5.
And in terms of merit, this is an obvious choice. Randolph's resurrection has been the key to the Grizzlies' shocking competence this season, with Memphis owning a greater than 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, according to Tuesday morning's Playoff Odds. Randolph's PER (22.32) isn't quite a career high -- he was a beast for a bad Portland team in 2006-07, finishing with a 22.81 PER -- but he's shooting over 50 percent from the floor for the first time since his rookie year and is setting a new career best in rebound rate (18.2).
ESPN.com
Archive
Getty Images
Steve Nash, Kevin Durant and Rajon Rondo should start the All-Star Game, says John Hollinger.
Before I pick my starters for the 2010 All-Star Game, let's start with a plea to the league: Change the ballot.
This has been a common refrain this winter because two undeserving players -- Philadelphia's Allen Iverson and Houston's Tracy McGrady -- are among the leading vote-getters in the fan balloting. Internet voting from the numerous fans in China reportedly is the culprit, as McGrady has said. (Although we in the U.S. have also proven capable of making poor choices when the balloting was strictly domestic.)
But my proposal isn't about voting in China. And even if enacted, my plan might still result in McGrady and Iverson starting.
It would, however, do something about the third player who has no business starting the All-Star Game: Amare Stoudemire. This season, the drafters of the ballot were once again forced to list Tim Duncan as a forward even though there's no sensible reason for placing him there, and unlike past years, it's going to matter. With Yao Ming out of the running because of injury, Stoudemire (creatively listed at center even though he plays power forward) is the vote leader at center in the Western Conference balloting. If Duncan had also been listed as a 5, I suspect he would have won easily.
As a result, Stoudemire is taking one of the 12 coveted spots on the Western roster, and in turn, some deserving player -- Deron Williams, say, or perhaps Carl Landry -- will end up left out of the All-Star Game.
Unlike the problems leading to the inclusion of Iverson and McGrady, this problem is easily fixable. But my proposed change goes much deeper than "list Duncan at center." Right now, the ballot is set up the way teams played in the mid-'60s, with two spots for small players listed as "guards," two for medium-sized "forwards" and one for a behemoth center.
One problem: Few teams have lined up that way in the past 20 years.
Today, most teams play with a point guard, two wings and two bigs. For several clubs, there is virtually no distinction between the shooting guard and the small forward, nor between the power forward and center.
This forces the drafters of the All-Star ballot to make distinctions that aren't relevant in real life -- i.e., whether to list Duncan and Pau Gasol as a forward or a center, or whether to put the likes of McGrady and Vince Carter as a guard or a forward.
The problem may seem small, but it can ruin the event -- as it did last year when the East had lots of "forwards" but no "bigs" and was pounded mercilessly by the West frontcourt.
Things would be a lot easier if we could just list Duncan and Gasol as "bigs" and Kobe and Melo as "wings." As a result, there would be fewer dubious omissions from the ballot (Chris Kaman and Zach Randolph, for instance) because of the artificial constraint on big men.
So, NBA folks, hear me out: Change the ballot so it reflects how the game is played today.
OK, off my soapbox and on to the All-Stars themselves. Based on the constraints of the current ballot (i.e., I had to pick Duncan as a forward), here are the 10 players -- including one write-in who wasn't on the ballot -- whom I think are most deserving of starting in Dallas on Feb. 14.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
The Eastern Conference presents much easier choices than the West, as the starters at each of the five positions were fairly obvious picks.
Rondo
Point Guard: Rajon Rondo, Boston
The elite defensive point guard in basketball also has been the most productive one in the East. Rondo leads all Eastern point guards in PER at 19.78, and given that the next two East points on the PER list are Gilbert Arenas and Luke Ridnour, I'd say we can call this one an open-and-shut case. Just to cement his spot, Rondo has led the Celtics to the second-best record in the East thus far despite injuries to All-Star forwards Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Unfortunately, Iverson will usurp this spot in the fan voting.
Wade
Shooting Guard: Dwyane Wade, Miami
Another no-brainer. Wade may not be playing quite at the MVP-caliber level he was last season, but he's not too far off the pace, either. He's third in the NBA in PER (26.93) and second in estimated wins added -- pretty darned good for a guy who seems to be lacking some explosion compared to last season. As with Rondo, Wade benefits from the lack of competition at his spot: Joe Johnson and Andre Iguodala are the closest competition, and they're only tiny specks in Wade's rearview mirror.
James
Small Forward: LeBron James, Cleveland
James once again leads the league in PER -- with a mark that nearly doubles that of his closest competitors (Pierce and Indiana's Danny Granger) -- and has the Cavs on top of the Eastern Conference.
LeBron has also played in every game for Cleveland this season, averaging 38.6 minutes per contest and leading the league in estimated wins added, with 16.7.
Bosh
Power Forward: Chris Bosh, Toronto
Bosh can't be accused of lazing into his walk year -- his 26.43 PER ranks fourth in the NBA and is comfortably ahead of all other power forwards. Bosh is setting new career highs in points and rebounds per 40 minutes, shooting percentage and true shooting percentage, while helping the Raps push for a top-five seed in the East. While one would like to see him have more impact on defense, Garnett's injury leaves Bosh a great distance ahead of the field. Alas, it appears Garnett will win the fan voting for this spot.
Howard
Center: Dwight Howard, Orlando
As with Wade, I don't think Howard has been as good as he was last season. And as is the case with Wade, 90 percent of last season's Howard is still better than 100 percent of any other center this season. While New York's David Lee can nearly match Howard in offensive production, there's no comparison whatsoever on defense, as Howard is the linchpin of one of the league's best defensive teams. And even when he's not getting the rock, Howard never stops rebounding; he is once again leading the league in that category with 13.1 rebounds per game.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WESTERN CONFERENCE
The West has a preponderance of the league's tarts, making the selection of its five best a bit more challenging. The ballot issues in this conference add to the fun, especially at the center spot. You'll see in a moment:
Nash
Point guard: Steve Nash, Suns
Choosing Nash over Chris Paul must be causing longtime readers to faint from shock. Make no mistake -- Paul is the better player. But he hasn't had a better first half of the season. While CP3 was on the sidelines with an injury for eight games, Nash was leading the Suns to a 14-3 start. And now he has Phoenix in position to grab a top-four seed in the West.
Nash has gained little recognition for his play compared to the lovefest surrounding him a few seasons ago, but this has actually been his best season. His 23.98 PER and 53.9 percent shooting mark are new career highs, and as my colleague Marc Stein points out, he's poised to become the first player ever to set a career high in scoring after age 35. In real life, this spot will go to McGrady, Nash or Paul, with the vote a virtual dead heat heading into the final days.
Bryant
Shooting guard: Kobe Bryant, Lakers
Bryant has been sabotaging his PER over the past two weeks by playing hurt and firing up bricks. But even so, he narrowly outranks Portland's Brandon Roy in that category (23.47 to 22.61). Even if he didn't, we are inclined to take him anyway based on his defense, his track record and the fact that he's made several game-winning shots this season. Bryant also earns props for engineering a dramatic change in his game to feature his post-up skills -- one that would likely be paying even bigger dividends if his mangled fingers could get the rock into the basket.
Durant
Small forward: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City
This is the second-most difficult choice on the ballot, as Durant and Carmelo Anthony have essentially equal résumés. If somebody wanted to pick Carmelo, I don't think I could generate a strong enough case for Durant to change his mind. Of course, the opposite is also true.
Both players are high-volume scorers who constantly get to the line, rebound well for their position, have low assist rates and have substantially improved their once-laughable defense. Anthony leads the league in scoring while Durant is third, with the margin between them (0.9 points per game) close enough that either could end up first at season's end. Durant has shot more efficiently, helped by his 86.9 percent mark from the line, but Anthony has won more.
What it ultimately came down to for me was availability. Durant hasn't missed a game; Anthony has missed five. In a race this close, that matters, and it's why I give Durant the nod. Anthony fans needn't worry, however -- back in the real world, he's going to win the voting by a wide margin.
Duncan
Power forward: Tim Duncan, San Antonio
Regardless of position, Duncan is a no-brainer as an All-Star starter. He's probably been the MVP of the Western Conference in the first half of the season, keeping the Spurs afloat despite the unexpected struggles of Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson, and ranks second only to King James in PER (27.87). Coming off a season in which it appeared chronic knee problems would diminish his productivity going forward, he's been among the first half's most pleasant surprises.
How good has Duncan been? He leads all Western Conference big men in estimated wins added despite playing only 32 minutes a game and sitting out three games. It's just unfortunate that he's on the ballot at power forward, because we could have used Duncan as the starting center and listed Dirk Nowitzki (who likely will beat out Duncan in the fan voting) as a starter at forward. Instead we have to do this:
Randolph
Center: Zach Randolph, Memphis
You got a better idea? Look at the ballot. The two best centers in the West (Duncan and Pau Gasol) both appear on the ballot at power forward. Beyond them, we have a series of unappealing candidates. Nene, Andrew Bynum and Kaman all are having nice seasons, but it's questionable whether any has been good enough to claw his way in as the West's 12th man … much less as a starter. The underrated Marc Gasol is a favorite around these parts, but it's tough to nominate him as the West's starter when he's neither the best center in his own family nor the best big man on his own team. Greg Oden might have worked here, but he's out for the season.
The obvious option, then, is to turn the tables on the ballot authors by writing in a power forward at the center spot. This isn't a big stretch considering that (A) a power forward is going to win the voting at the center spot, and (B) Randolph can easily slide over to the 5.
And in terms of merit, this is an obvious choice. Randolph's resurrection has been the key to the Grizzlies' shocking competence this season, with Memphis owning a greater than 50-50 shot at making the playoffs, according to Tuesday morning's Playoff Odds. Randolph's PER (22.32) isn't quite a career high -- he was a beast for a bad Portland team in 2006-07, finishing with a 22.81 PER -- but he's shooting over 50 percent from the floor for the first time since his rookie year and is setting a new career best in rebound rate (18.2).
