Post by jrmzt on Jan 12, 2010 15:39:44 GMT -5
Sourced from ESPN.com
In some ways, it's business as usual in the Western Conference. Just like last season, the Lakers stand several games ahead of the pack. They've had their share of struggles, sure, but as things stand today, it's hard to find a single breathing soul who expects any team besides L.A. to represent the West in the NBA Finals.
In other ways, however, it's all different. L.A. won 65 games last season, and most expected the Lakers to roll toward a similar total this season. Instead, they're on pace to win just 56, based on today's Playoff Odds. Although they've offered hints of their ceiling -- a string of 11 straight wins (10 of them by at least 10 points) around Thanksgiving and last week's 35-point beatdown of Dallas -- their overall body of work is nowhere near championship-caliber.
Let's just say the competition has taken note. Don't get me wrong; the Lakers remain the clear favorite in the West. But when I talk to other teams in the West about the Lakers, I don't hear any fear in their voices.
Respect? Sure -- especially for how hard Kobe Bryant plays, and how difficult it is to match up with the Lakers' size in the frontcourt. Fear? Not so much. There isn't one Western contender that considers the Lakers invincible. Most feel they're one player from reaching the Lakers' level if not leapfrogging them.
This, in fact, may be the biggest problem with L.A.'s underwhelming start to the season. If the Lakers had jumped out to a 30-5 start with a near-double-digit scoring margin, their competitors might have been cowed into saving their chips for next season.
Instead, they watch L.A.'s struggles against quick guards, note its bench woes and read of the injuries to its two best players ... and they smell blood. As a result, we're heading toward the trade deadline with at least six teams in the Western Conference looking at themselves, looking back at the Lakers, then thinking, "Wait a minute. We can do this."
You don't agree? Just run through the list. At least six teams have a legitimate reason to think they are close to L.A.'s level and have at least a somewhat-plausible means of raising their status between now and mid-February. Let's run through the list:
Houston Rockets
Why they think they're close: You mean, besides the fact that they took the Lakers to seven games without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady during the playoffs? Or that they have quick guards whom L.A. can't stop, a pair of wing stoppers to match up on Kobe and a superior, if undersized, low-post defender? Or that they outclassed L.A. in the Staples Center in mid-November? Houston may not have the most talent in the conference but probably fears the Lakers less than any other team in the West.
What they need: A dynamic wing. The Rockets need a creator on the perimeter to replace what McGrady used to do at the end of the shot clock. Obviously, Houston has an eye on Chris Bosh, and if it trades for him, I don't think Rockets GM Daryl Morey should start shrieking, "No! No! We wanted a wing!" That said, Houston's need on the wing is the bigger one, and it becomes more glaring every time we try to see Trevor Ariza justifying his contract by going one-on-one off the dribble.
The most plausible possibility is Washington's Caron Butler. ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard mentioned a possible deal that would involve McGrady's expiring deal going to Washington and perhaps Randy Foye or Mike Miller also heading to Houston. Several permutations work capwise; it's a matter of how much salary the Rockets are willing to swallow to reduce Washington's luxury-tax bill and how little the Wizards are willing to accept in cash and prospects to rid itself of contracts.
Big-picture, however, the takeaway is that Houston has the pieces to acquire a wing scorer because of McGrady's expiring deal, several smaller cap-friendly deals (most notably Brian Cook's $3.5 million expiring contract) and ownership's willingness to pay the luxury tax. With a wider-than-expected opening in the West this season and huge uncertainty about what their cap space may reap during the summer, the Rockets could decide to act sooner rather than later.
San Antonio Spurs
Why they think they're close: The Spurs weren't far off the Lakers' scent last season before Tim Duncan hurt his knees. Now that he's going gangbusters, the theory is that the Spurs can hang with anyone provided Manu Ginobili gets healthy and Tony Parker stops running in quicksand. The Spurs haven't faced L.A. yet this season, but the two teams meet Tuesday night in San Antonio, where the above theory will face its first test.
What they need: A Kobe stopper. San Antonio has the size to match up with the Lakers' front line, but it doesn't have Bruce Bowen anymore. The Spurs have quietly become more of an offensive team than a defensive one, and the lack of a wing stopper presents a particular problem.
Fortunately for the Spurs, they have three things in their favor on this front: (1) This type of player isn't necessarily expensive, (2) they've showed they're willing to go deep into the luxury tax for the right player and (3) they have a number of expiring contracts (those of Roger Mason, Michael Finley, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi) that could be part of a package to bring in the right player.
Who's Mr. Right? The swing-for-the-fences option would be Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala, but I can't imagine San Antonio signing off on that kind of salary. More realistic might be Detroit's Tayshaun Prince if he can prove he's healthy or Atlanta's Marvin Williams if the Hawks are interested in a three-way deal to bring Antawn Jamison down south. The point is, some player of this ilk should be available and could be had at a reasonable price.
Dallas Mavericks
Why they think they're close: I mentioned L.A. beat Dallas by 35; what I left out was the Mavs beat the snot out of L.A. in Staples the first time the two teams met this season. Dallas has more size and athleticism this season with Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, and its biggest defensive weaknesses (versus quick guards and running centers) are largely irrelevant against the Lakers. Moreover, the Mavs are second in the West as of Tuesday, meaning they have the inside track on drawing L.A. in a best-of-seven for the conference crown.
What they need to add: One more star. For the Mavs, it's less relevant what position a new acquisition plays, although obviously they're fairly well-stocked at power forward. But if the Mavs upgrade the starting spots of Erick Dampier, Josh Howard or J.J. Barea with an All-Star-caliber player, they would be a force to be reckoned with out West.
How could they pull off such a feat? More easily than you think, given the contracts they have and management's willingness to pay the luxury tax. Dampier's contract for next season isn't guaranteed, which basically makes him a $12.1 million expiring deal. Howard's contract, worth $10.9 million, also has just one season left. Thus, Dallas has the wherewithal to offer massive salary relief for a team looking to unload a star.
I mentioned Iguodala before and find the prospect of him as the Mavs' second banana tantalizing. Imagine him running the break for alley-oops with Jason Kidd, playing off Dirk Nowitzki in the halfcourt and checking the top opposing wing player. It's an enormous contract to swallow, and it might require eating Samuel Dalembert's deal as well, but the Mavs are one of the few teams that could do it. Other star players (Richard Hamilton, Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Jamison, Butler) also could be had with Dallas' expiring deals, making the Mavs potentially a major player come February.
Denver Nuggets
Why they think they're close: Because last season they were close. Through four-and-a-half games of the Western Conference finals, you could have made a convincing case they were the better team. The Nuggets have added Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo since then, giving them two things they lacked in May -- a greyhound point guard whom L.A. can't keep out of the paint and a muscular defender against Kobe's post-ups. As if to prove that point, Denver won the two teams' lone meeting this season by 26 points.
What they need to add: Another big. Marc Stein already has told us about Denver's lust for Jeff Foster, whom the team has been trying to add for at least a year, but other bigs are on its radar, too. The idea is the Nuggets don't have enough to handle Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, and that idea is correct -- L.A.'s size overwhelmed them in the final six quarters of the conference finals last season. Nene and Kenyon Martin both give up inches to their L.A. counterparts, and when the fouls hit, there's little in reserve -- it's basically a three-man frontcourt unit with those two and reserve Chris Andersen.
Unfortunately, Denver doesn't have the assets of some of its Western Conference counterparts. The Nuggets are already over the luxury-tax threshold, and for a perennial playoff team, they have a fairly weak revenue base. As a result, owner Stanley Kroenke is reluctant to add salary unless he can be assured of a major playoff payoff.
About the best Denver can offer is Renaldo Balkman (mildly valuable because his contract declines from $2.03 million to $1.675 next season if he doesn't hit his bonuses) and a couple of small expiring contracts (Malik Allen and Anthony Carter). The Nuggets can't even include a first-round pick unless they give up the lottery protection on a pick owed to Memphis in June, and even then they'd be trying to trade a 2012 selection. Most GMs won't trade for picks that far in the future because with management shelf lives being what they are, they presume somebody else will benefit from them.
That said, a deal still could happen. Taking on Foster, for instance, may work because Indiana might happily shed the $6.75 million owed to him next season. Other big men also could fit. Washington's Brendan Haywood would be perfect, but he'd also be a tougher nut to pry loose given his expiring deal, especially because the Nuggets appear steadfast in their refusal to put Lawson into any deals.
Portland Trail Blazers
Why they think they're close: L.A. can't win in their building, having lost nine in a row in Portland, and even in their injured state, the Blazers have enough length to deal with the Lakers' size. Additionally, the Blazers should have all their players back except Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla by the time the playoffs start.
What they need to add: A real center. This is where it gets tricky because the Blazers already have two centers on the roster for next season, so adding another one seems like an extreme short-term play. The best option would be to add a quasi-center who could fill in for now, then move behind LaMarcus Aldridge next season. That's why Paul Millsap or David Lee would have been such a good pickup this past summer.
For now, somebody like Haywood -- a big center with an expiring contract -- would be perfect. It's not outlandish to think the Blazers could get him with a package featuring either Travis Outlaw or Andre Miller. The latter scenario almost certainly would involve a third team, and several other possible permutations work, too, because the Blazers have so much depth on the wings.
So think of the ends rather than the means. Look ahead to spring and the Blazers' sticking a healthy Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster on Bryant, matching up inch for inch in the frontcourt with Aldridge on Gasol and their shiny-new big center on Bynum, and owning major advantages at point guard and the bench. All this is a stretch at the moment, but add a center to the mix, and I'm not sure it will look that way in May.
Phoenix Suns
Why they think they're close: Actually, I'm not sure they do, but just humor me for a second.
What they need to add: Another greyhound. The Suns' means of beating L.A. is completely different from everyone else's: They aren't trying to match up with L.A.'s size; instead, they're trying to make it irrelevant by speeding up the game and forcing the Lakers to cover the entire court. Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye are a potent combo on that front, but what would really put the Suns into L.A.'s stratosphere would be getting the likes of Washington's Jamison or Sacramento's Kevin Martin.
The latter proposition is by far the more plausible, but the obstacles are daunting regardless. The Suns don't have great young assets, with Earl Clark and Goran Dragic probably having the most appeal, nor do they have alluring expiring contracts.
The best package they could concoct would be putting Clark, Leandro Barbosa and Dragic into a deal for Martin and Sergio Rodriguez. Signing off on this one would not be an easy call. Sacramento almost certainly would insist the Suns take Francisco Garcia (who is not a base-year player because the Kings are under the cap) and probably would want a draft pick, too (which couldn't be til 2012, because Phoenix's 2010 pick belongs to Oklahoma City and teams can't deal picks in consecutive years). Such a deal would basically empty the Suns' cupboard of young players and put the Suns even deeper into the luxury tax.
That said, just imagine for a second a lineup of Steve Nash, Martin, Jason Richardson, Stoudemire and Frye, with Rodriguez, Grant Hill, Garcia, Jared Dudley and Louis Amundson coming off the bench. Such a team would suffer mightily in the halfcourt against L.A.'s offense or anyone else's for that matter. But it would be one of the best offensive teams in history, and against a big team with little depth such as the Lakers, the Suns might run them off the floor.
I should emphasize this scenario is by far the least plausible of the ones I've concocted, and the mere fact that it requires spending money may completely kill it for the cash-conscious Suns. Nonetheless, it's symbolic of the opening the Lakers have left that we're even pondering it.
Remember, even at the status quo, Phoenix projects to land just five games behind L.A. and almost certainly will pay the luxury tax. As with all six Western contenders, one wonders whether the Suns see enough chinks in the Lakers' armor to justify the risk delineated above. That we're even pondering this question in January is newsworthy, because for most of us it's a concept we hadn't considered when the season began.
In some ways, it's business as usual in the Western Conference. Just like last season, the Lakers stand several games ahead of the pack. They've had their share of struggles, sure, but as things stand today, it's hard to find a single breathing soul who expects any team besides L.A. to represent the West in the NBA Finals.
In other ways, however, it's all different. L.A. won 65 games last season, and most expected the Lakers to roll toward a similar total this season. Instead, they're on pace to win just 56, based on today's Playoff Odds. Although they've offered hints of their ceiling -- a string of 11 straight wins (10 of them by at least 10 points) around Thanksgiving and last week's 35-point beatdown of Dallas -- their overall body of work is nowhere near championship-caliber.
Let's just say the competition has taken note. Don't get me wrong; the Lakers remain the clear favorite in the West. But when I talk to other teams in the West about the Lakers, I don't hear any fear in their voices.
Respect? Sure -- especially for how hard Kobe Bryant plays, and how difficult it is to match up with the Lakers' size in the frontcourt. Fear? Not so much. There isn't one Western contender that considers the Lakers invincible. Most feel they're one player from reaching the Lakers' level if not leapfrogging them.
This, in fact, may be the biggest problem with L.A.'s underwhelming start to the season. If the Lakers had jumped out to a 30-5 start with a near-double-digit scoring margin, their competitors might have been cowed into saving their chips for next season.
Instead, they watch L.A.'s struggles against quick guards, note its bench woes and read of the injuries to its two best players ... and they smell blood. As a result, we're heading toward the trade deadline with at least six teams in the Western Conference looking at themselves, looking back at the Lakers, then thinking, "Wait a minute. We can do this."
You don't agree? Just run through the list. At least six teams have a legitimate reason to think they are close to L.A.'s level and have at least a somewhat-plausible means of raising their status between now and mid-February. Let's run through the list:
Houston Rockets
Why they think they're close: You mean, besides the fact that they took the Lakers to seven games without Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady during the playoffs? Or that they have quick guards whom L.A. can't stop, a pair of wing stoppers to match up on Kobe and a superior, if undersized, low-post defender? Or that they outclassed L.A. in the Staples Center in mid-November? Houston may not have the most talent in the conference but probably fears the Lakers less than any other team in the West.
What they need: A dynamic wing. The Rockets need a creator on the perimeter to replace what McGrady used to do at the end of the shot clock. Obviously, Houston has an eye on Chris Bosh, and if it trades for him, I don't think Rockets GM Daryl Morey should start shrieking, "No! No! We wanted a wing!" That said, Houston's need on the wing is the bigger one, and it becomes more glaring every time we try to see Trevor Ariza justifying his contract by going one-on-one off the dribble.
The most plausible possibility is Washington's Caron Butler. ESPN The Magazine's Chris Broussard mentioned a possible deal that would involve McGrady's expiring deal going to Washington and perhaps Randy Foye or Mike Miller also heading to Houston. Several permutations work capwise; it's a matter of how much salary the Rockets are willing to swallow to reduce Washington's luxury-tax bill and how little the Wizards are willing to accept in cash and prospects to rid itself of contracts.
Big-picture, however, the takeaway is that Houston has the pieces to acquire a wing scorer because of McGrady's expiring deal, several smaller cap-friendly deals (most notably Brian Cook's $3.5 million expiring contract) and ownership's willingness to pay the luxury tax. With a wider-than-expected opening in the West this season and huge uncertainty about what their cap space may reap during the summer, the Rockets could decide to act sooner rather than later.
San Antonio Spurs
Why they think they're close: The Spurs weren't far off the Lakers' scent last season before Tim Duncan hurt his knees. Now that he's going gangbusters, the theory is that the Spurs can hang with anyone provided Manu Ginobili gets healthy and Tony Parker stops running in quicksand. The Spurs haven't faced L.A. yet this season, but the two teams meet Tuesday night in San Antonio, where the above theory will face its first test.
What they need: A Kobe stopper. San Antonio has the size to match up with the Lakers' front line, but it doesn't have Bruce Bowen anymore. The Spurs have quietly become more of an offensive team than a defensive one, and the lack of a wing stopper presents a particular problem.
Fortunately for the Spurs, they have three things in their favor on this front: (1) This type of player isn't necessarily expensive, (2) they've showed they're willing to go deep into the luxury tax for the right player and (3) they have a number of expiring contracts (those of Roger Mason, Michael Finley, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi) that could be part of a package to bring in the right player.
Who's Mr. Right? The swing-for-the-fences option would be Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala, but I can't imagine San Antonio signing off on that kind of salary. More realistic might be Detroit's Tayshaun Prince if he can prove he's healthy or Atlanta's Marvin Williams if the Hawks are interested in a three-way deal to bring Antawn Jamison down south. The point is, some player of this ilk should be available and could be had at a reasonable price.
Dallas Mavericks
Why they think they're close: I mentioned L.A. beat Dallas by 35; what I left out was the Mavs beat the snot out of L.A. in Staples the first time the two teams met this season. Dallas has more size and athleticism this season with Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden, and its biggest defensive weaknesses (versus quick guards and running centers) are largely irrelevant against the Lakers. Moreover, the Mavs are second in the West as of Tuesday, meaning they have the inside track on drawing L.A. in a best-of-seven for the conference crown.
What they need to add: One more star. For the Mavs, it's less relevant what position a new acquisition plays, although obviously they're fairly well-stocked at power forward. But if the Mavs upgrade the starting spots of Erick Dampier, Josh Howard or J.J. Barea with an All-Star-caliber player, they would be a force to be reckoned with out West.
How could they pull off such a feat? More easily than you think, given the contracts they have and management's willingness to pay the luxury tax. Dampier's contract for next season isn't guaranteed, which basically makes him a $12.1 million expiring deal. Howard's contract, worth $10.9 million, also has just one season left. Thus, Dallas has the wherewithal to offer massive salary relief for a team looking to unload a star.
I mentioned Iguodala before and find the prospect of him as the Mavs' second banana tantalizing. Imagine him running the break for alley-oops with Jason Kidd, playing off Dirk Nowitzki in the halfcourt and checking the top opposing wing player. It's an enormous contract to swallow, and it might require eating Samuel Dalembert's deal as well, but the Mavs are one of the few teams that could do it. Other star players (Richard Hamilton, Bosh, Carlos Boozer, Jamison, Butler) also could be had with Dallas' expiring deals, making the Mavs potentially a major player come February.
Denver Nuggets
Why they think they're close: Because last season they were close. Through four-and-a-half games of the Western Conference finals, you could have made a convincing case they were the better team. The Nuggets have added Ty Lawson and Arron Afflalo since then, giving them two things they lacked in May -- a greyhound point guard whom L.A. can't keep out of the paint and a muscular defender against Kobe's post-ups. As if to prove that point, Denver won the two teams' lone meeting this season by 26 points.
What they need to add: Another big. Marc Stein already has told us about Denver's lust for Jeff Foster, whom the team has been trying to add for at least a year, but other bigs are on its radar, too. The idea is the Nuggets don't have enough to handle Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol, and that idea is correct -- L.A.'s size overwhelmed them in the final six quarters of the conference finals last season. Nene and Kenyon Martin both give up inches to their L.A. counterparts, and when the fouls hit, there's little in reserve -- it's basically a three-man frontcourt unit with those two and reserve Chris Andersen.
Unfortunately, Denver doesn't have the assets of some of its Western Conference counterparts. The Nuggets are already over the luxury-tax threshold, and for a perennial playoff team, they have a fairly weak revenue base. As a result, owner Stanley Kroenke is reluctant to add salary unless he can be assured of a major playoff payoff.
About the best Denver can offer is Renaldo Balkman (mildly valuable because his contract declines from $2.03 million to $1.675 next season if he doesn't hit his bonuses) and a couple of small expiring contracts (Malik Allen and Anthony Carter). The Nuggets can't even include a first-round pick unless they give up the lottery protection on a pick owed to Memphis in June, and even then they'd be trying to trade a 2012 selection. Most GMs won't trade for picks that far in the future because with management shelf lives being what they are, they presume somebody else will benefit from them.
That said, a deal still could happen. Taking on Foster, for instance, may work because Indiana might happily shed the $6.75 million owed to him next season. Other big men also could fit. Washington's Brendan Haywood would be perfect, but he'd also be a tougher nut to pry loose given his expiring deal, especially because the Nuggets appear steadfast in their refusal to put Lawson into any deals.
Portland Trail Blazers
Why they think they're close: L.A. can't win in their building, having lost nine in a row in Portland, and even in their injured state, the Blazers have enough length to deal with the Lakers' size. Additionally, the Blazers should have all their players back except Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla by the time the playoffs start.
What they need to add: A real center. This is where it gets tricky because the Blazers already have two centers on the roster for next season, so adding another one seems like an extreme short-term play. The best option would be to add a quasi-center who could fill in for now, then move behind LaMarcus Aldridge next season. That's why Paul Millsap or David Lee would have been such a good pickup this past summer.
For now, somebody like Haywood -- a big center with an expiring contract -- would be perfect. It's not outlandish to think the Blazers could get him with a package featuring either Travis Outlaw or Andre Miller. The latter scenario almost certainly would involve a third team, and several other possible permutations work, too, because the Blazers have so much depth on the wings.
So think of the ends rather than the means. Look ahead to spring and the Blazers' sticking a healthy Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster on Bryant, matching up inch for inch in the frontcourt with Aldridge on Gasol and their shiny-new big center on Bynum, and owning major advantages at point guard and the bench. All this is a stretch at the moment, but add a center to the mix, and I'm not sure it will look that way in May.
Phoenix Suns
Why they think they're close: Actually, I'm not sure they do, but just humor me for a second.
What they need to add: Another greyhound. The Suns' means of beating L.A. is completely different from everyone else's: They aren't trying to match up with L.A.'s size; instead, they're trying to make it irrelevant by speeding up the game and forcing the Lakers to cover the entire court. Amare Stoudemire and Channing Frye are a potent combo on that front, but what would really put the Suns into L.A.'s stratosphere would be getting the likes of Washington's Jamison or Sacramento's Kevin Martin.
The latter proposition is by far the more plausible, but the obstacles are daunting regardless. The Suns don't have great young assets, with Earl Clark and Goran Dragic probably having the most appeal, nor do they have alluring expiring contracts.
The best package they could concoct would be putting Clark, Leandro Barbosa and Dragic into a deal for Martin and Sergio Rodriguez. Signing off on this one would not be an easy call. Sacramento almost certainly would insist the Suns take Francisco Garcia (who is not a base-year player because the Kings are under the cap) and probably would want a draft pick, too (which couldn't be til 2012, because Phoenix's 2010 pick belongs to Oklahoma City and teams can't deal picks in consecutive years). Such a deal would basically empty the Suns' cupboard of young players and put the Suns even deeper into the luxury tax.
That said, just imagine for a second a lineup of Steve Nash, Martin, Jason Richardson, Stoudemire and Frye, with Rodriguez, Grant Hill, Garcia, Jared Dudley and Louis Amundson coming off the bench. Such a team would suffer mightily in the halfcourt against L.A.'s offense or anyone else's for that matter. But it would be one of the best offensive teams in history, and against a big team with little depth such as the Lakers, the Suns might run them off the floor.
I should emphasize this scenario is by far the least plausible of the ones I've concocted, and the mere fact that it requires spending money may completely kill it for the cash-conscious Suns. Nonetheless, it's symbolic of the opening the Lakers have left that we're even pondering it.
Remember, even at the status quo, Phoenix projects to land just five games behind L.A. and almost certainly will pay the luxury tax. As with all six Western contenders, one wonders whether the Suns see enough chinks in the Lakers' armor to justify the risk delineated above. That we're even pondering this question in January is newsworthy, because for most of us it's a concept we hadn't considered when the season began.
