Post by FLCeltsFan on Jan 5, 2010 13:10:02 GMT -5
Hawks' woes have been offensivePER Diem: Jan. 5, 2010Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
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Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
If Josh Smith and the Hawks want to stop their losing ways, they might want to read what's below.
Perhaps I should have retained my skepticism a few weeks longer. When the Hawks got off to such a blistering start this season, I tried to curb my enthusiasm. They weren't supposed to be this good and would probably regress to the mean, I thought, especially since they lacked a superstar performer and had yet to have a major injury.
That thought process changed on Dec. 18, when I saw Atlanta dismantle Utah so thoroughly that the Jazz pulled their starters midway through the third quarter ... with the Hawks leading by 27, after scoring 17 fast-break points in the first six minutes of the third quarter. While Atlanta had played well on other nights, that game was the first time this season when I really thought, "Wow, these guys are good." Cosmetic scoring made the final (96-83) much more respectable, but anyone leaving Philips Arena that night had the distinct impression the Hawks had arrived as an elite team.
Since then, however, they've done everything in their power to reverse my opinion.
After the Utah game, the Hawks' record was 19-6, with a strong point differential against a good schedule. At the time, they stood atop my Power Rankings, largely due to an unexpectedly potent offense that topped the league in offensive efficiency.
Atlanta has played eight games since then, and won only two of them -- against Minnesota and Indiana. The last four games, all defeats, have proven particularly painful -- Atlanta had consecutive second-half meltdowns against Cleveland, the latter coming with the aid of a clock malfunction, dropped a home game against a lesser New York team when Nate Robinson came out of cold storage to hang 41 on them, and suffered a one-sided rout by a Jermaine O'Neal-less Heat team in Miami on Monday night.
While the losing streak is unlikely to hit five -- the Hawks' next contest is at home against New Jersey on Wednesday -- Atlanta is in danger of losing contact with the other Eastern powers in the playoff race. The defeats dropped the Hawks to 21-12, and with a Boston-Orlando-Boston stretch coming up over the weekend, they could easily be five games out of the third spot in the East by this time next week.
Although it's possible one of the Cleveland losses could still end up in the win column -- if the Hawks' protest of the second Cleveland loss is upheld and the replay (likely April 2 in Cleveland) goes in their favor -- the takeaway from the past eight games remains the same.
The common thread? Atlanta's once-vaunted offense has hit a wall. Although the Hawks still rank second in the league in offensive efficiency (109.3), they haven't been playing up to their usual level in the past eight games, with an efficiency mark of 105.8 -- and only 101.9 if you subtract the two doormats (Minnesota and Indiana).
Subjectively, they've been worse than those numbers, because they've saved their worst for the times that matter most. A six-point overtime against Chicago. A nearly nine-minute drought in the fourth-quarter against Cleveland, followed by a 37-point second half the next night. A 19-point fourth quarter against a toothless Knicks defense. Monday night's 75-point debacle in Miami was a rarity because it lasted all four quarters, but six of the past eight games have shown extended stretches when Atlanta's offense went off the rails.
Look a little deeper, and there's a surprising reason. The Hawks' offense has benefited from an odd approach, as I mentioned a few weeks ago -- they don't shoot a particularly highly percentage, but they're so good at rebounding and avoiding turnovers that they generate far more shot attempts per possession than most teams.
Lately, however, one of those planks has disintegrated: The Hawks stopped getting offensive rebounds. Atlanta's offensive rebound rate in the past eight games is a measly 17.7 percent, barely half what they were averaging until that point. In two games against the Cavs, the Hawks grabbed only 12 offensive boards while Cleveland nabbed 87 defensive boards -- with no second shots, perhaps the second-half offensive meltdowns were inevitable.
Even against lesser teams, it's happened: Atlanta survived against lowly Indiana, for instance, while grabbing a measly three offensive boards. On other nights, against better teams -- such as Monday, when they grabbed only seven of their 46 misses against Miami -- they couldn't slip by so easily.
Atlanta once stood third in the league in offensive rebound rate at 30.4 percent; thanks to the Hawks' recent malaise, they're a distant seventh at 28.1 percent. It's unclear to me why the second shots vanished, and given the small sample of games there might not be any reason at all.
Nonetheless, it's something they'll have to remedy if they're going to keep pace with the three top dogs in the East -- a group they've already fallen dangerously behind.
With plenty of time left and a chance to quickly make up a few games this weekend, the Hawks can get back in the race for a top-two seed. But the lesson here is that the Hawks won't rebound in the standings unless they rebound a few more of their own misses.
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Chris Paul's late steal of a Deron Williams transition pass inches above the hardwood was the highlight, but the big takeaway from Utah's 91-87 home loss to the Hornets has much more to do with outcome.
The Jazz (18-16) are now in ninth place in the West after losing consecutive home games, and they have six home defeats this season after dropping just 12 games in EnergySolutions Arena the past two seasons combined. On Monday night, the Jazz couldn't stop Devin Brown, a career journeyman whom the Hornets tried to trade for nothing last week to get cap relief. He scored a career-high 30 points.
The significant part is that Utah is still well over the luxury tax, despite the recent giveaway of Eric Maynor to Oklahoma City, and could save in the neighborhood of $10 million by making another deal to slip under the tax line. With the Jazz appearing to be a one-and-done playoff outfit at best, there seems to be little incentive for Utah to ride out the season with this crew rather than make a deal that would pocket significant savings.
The crux of such a deal, of course, would be Carlos Boozer. He's played well despite his team's middling season, averaging 19.3 points and 10.6 rebounds, and his expiring contract only increases the number of teams who would be interested in swapping for the power forward. Dealing him for other players with smaller expiring contracts could allow the Jazz to get under the tax line while netting an asset or two -- a young player, perhaps, or a draft pick -- that augment their post-Boozer future and give more minutes to Paul Millsap, who re-upped with the Jazz this offseason for four years and $32 million.
Nothing needs to happen tomorrow, since the Jazz have until the Feb. 18 trade deadline to get under the tax line. Nonetheless, Tuesday's defeat is just one further nail in the coffin for the idea that the Jazz might hang on to Boozer and eat the tax payment. If it's possible for Utah to end up in the lottery even with Boozer, they'd sure as heck rather save $10 million to get there without him.
ESPN.com
Archive
Issac Baldizon/NBAE/Getty Images
If Josh Smith and the Hawks want to stop their losing ways, they might want to read what's below.
Perhaps I should have retained my skepticism a few weeks longer. When the Hawks got off to such a blistering start this season, I tried to curb my enthusiasm. They weren't supposed to be this good and would probably regress to the mean, I thought, especially since they lacked a superstar performer and had yet to have a major injury.
That thought process changed on Dec. 18, when I saw Atlanta dismantle Utah so thoroughly that the Jazz pulled their starters midway through the third quarter ... with the Hawks leading by 27, after scoring 17 fast-break points in the first six minutes of the third quarter. While Atlanta had played well on other nights, that game was the first time this season when I really thought, "Wow, these guys are good." Cosmetic scoring made the final (96-83) much more respectable, but anyone leaving Philips Arena that night had the distinct impression the Hawks had arrived as an elite team.
Since then, however, they've done everything in their power to reverse my opinion.
After the Utah game, the Hawks' record was 19-6, with a strong point differential against a good schedule. At the time, they stood atop my Power Rankings, largely due to an unexpectedly potent offense that topped the league in offensive efficiency.
Atlanta has played eight games since then, and won only two of them -- against Minnesota and Indiana. The last four games, all defeats, have proven particularly painful -- Atlanta had consecutive second-half meltdowns against Cleveland, the latter coming with the aid of a clock malfunction, dropped a home game against a lesser New York team when Nate Robinson came out of cold storage to hang 41 on them, and suffered a one-sided rout by a Jermaine O'Neal-less Heat team in Miami on Monday night.
While the losing streak is unlikely to hit five -- the Hawks' next contest is at home against New Jersey on Wednesday -- Atlanta is in danger of losing contact with the other Eastern powers in the playoff race. The defeats dropped the Hawks to 21-12, and with a Boston-Orlando-Boston stretch coming up over the weekend, they could easily be five games out of the third spot in the East by this time next week.
Although it's possible one of the Cleveland losses could still end up in the win column -- if the Hawks' protest of the second Cleveland loss is upheld and the replay (likely April 2 in Cleveland) goes in their favor -- the takeaway from the past eight games remains the same.
The common thread? Atlanta's once-vaunted offense has hit a wall. Although the Hawks still rank second in the league in offensive efficiency (109.3), they haven't been playing up to their usual level in the past eight games, with an efficiency mark of 105.8 -- and only 101.9 if you subtract the two doormats (Minnesota and Indiana).
Subjectively, they've been worse than those numbers, because they've saved their worst for the times that matter most. A six-point overtime against Chicago. A nearly nine-minute drought in the fourth-quarter against Cleveland, followed by a 37-point second half the next night. A 19-point fourth quarter against a toothless Knicks defense. Monday night's 75-point debacle in Miami was a rarity because it lasted all four quarters, but six of the past eight games have shown extended stretches when Atlanta's offense went off the rails.
Look a little deeper, and there's a surprising reason. The Hawks' offense has benefited from an odd approach, as I mentioned a few weeks ago -- they don't shoot a particularly highly percentage, but they're so good at rebounding and avoiding turnovers that they generate far more shot attempts per possession than most teams.
Lately, however, one of those planks has disintegrated: The Hawks stopped getting offensive rebounds. Atlanta's offensive rebound rate in the past eight games is a measly 17.7 percent, barely half what they were averaging until that point. In two games against the Cavs, the Hawks grabbed only 12 offensive boards while Cleveland nabbed 87 defensive boards -- with no second shots, perhaps the second-half offensive meltdowns were inevitable.
Even against lesser teams, it's happened: Atlanta survived against lowly Indiana, for instance, while grabbing a measly three offensive boards. On other nights, against better teams -- such as Monday, when they grabbed only seven of their 46 misses against Miami -- they couldn't slip by so easily.
Atlanta once stood third in the league in offensive rebound rate at 30.4 percent; thanks to the Hawks' recent malaise, they're a distant seventh at 28.1 percent. It's unclear to me why the second shots vanished, and given the small sample of games there might not be any reason at all.
Nonetheless, it's something they'll have to remedy if they're going to keep pace with the three top dogs in the East -- a group they've already fallen dangerously behind.
With plenty of time left and a chance to quickly make up a few games this weekend, the Hawks can get back in the race for a top-two seed. But the lesson here is that the Hawks won't rebound in the standings unless they rebound a few more of their own misses.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Chris Paul's late steal of a Deron Williams transition pass inches above the hardwood was the highlight, but the big takeaway from Utah's 91-87 home loss to the Hornets has much more to do with outcome.
The Jazz (18-16) are now in ninth place in the West after losing consecutive home games, and they have six home defeats this season after dropping just 12 games in EnergySolutions Arena the past two seasons combined. On Monday night, the Jazz couldn't stop Devin Brown, a career journeyman whom the Hornets tried to trade for nothing last week to get cap relief. He scored a career-high 30 points.
The significant part is that Utah is still well over the luxury tax, despite the recent giveaway of Eric Maynor to Oklahoma City, and could save in the neighborhood of $10 million by making another deal to slip under the tax line. With the Jazz appearing to be a one-and-done playoff outfit at best, there seems to be little incentive for Utah to ride out the season with this crew rather than make a deal that would pocket significant savings.
The crux of such a deal, of course, would be Carlos Boozer. He's played well despite his team's middling season, averaging 19.3 points and 10.6 rebounds, and his expiring contract only increases the number of teams who would be interested in swapping for the power forward. Dealing him for other players with smaller expiring contracts could allow the Jazz to get under the tax line while netting an asset or two -- a young player, perhaps, or a draft pick -- that augment their post-Boozer future and give more minutes to Paul Millsap, who re-upped with the Jazz this offseason for four years and $32 million.
Nothing needs to happen tomorrow, since the Jazz have until the Feb. 18 trade deadline to get under the tax line. Nonetheless, Tuesday's defeat is just one further nail in the coffin for the idea that the Jazz might hang on to Boozer and eat the tax payment. If it's possible for Utah to end up in the lottery even with Boozer, they'd sure as heck rather save $10 million to get there without him.
