Post by FLCeltsFan on Dec 2, 2009 9:57:42 GMT -5
Never too early to talk lottery scenarios
Tuesday, December 1, 2009 | Print Entry
Posted by Chad Ford
There may be 168 days until the NBA draft lottery but, given how poorly a handful of teams are playing this season, we already have a pretty good idea of who will be hoarding the pingpong balls this year.
The New Jersey Nets are a historically pitiful 0-17. The Minnesota Timberwolves aren't far behind at a pathetic 2-15. And the New York Knicks aren't faring much better at a paltry 3-14. While there are plenty of other teams struggling, it seems like these three teams in particular are in for a long season.
That means that fans of all three teams are already focusing on this summer and the 2010 draft. Whom would each team draft if they were to win the lottery?
First, the contenders:
1. John Wall, PG, Kentucky
It's hard for a player's stock to go up when he's been ranked all year as the No. 1 pick in the draft, but Wall's has. Every scout and GM who has seen him play has been wowed by Wall's early performance. Wall came into the season with a lot of hype and hasn't disappointed. He's proven he can score, dish out assists, play defense and make big plays when his team needs it. He's got to work on those turnovers and his 3-point shooting, but Wall has a vise grip on the No. 1 spot on our Big Board at the moment.
2. Derrick Favors, F/C, Georgia Tech
Favors isn't having quite as strong of a season as Wall, but he's got two things going for him. Size and athleticism come at a premium in the NBA, and Favors has both. He has the chance to be a dominant inside presence -- a cross between Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard. However, Favors isn't there yet. His early numbers at Georgia Tech (13.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks in 24 minutes per game) are very good for a freshman but not quite dominant. If he really gets it going in the second half of the season, he'll be a legit No. 1 pick.
3. Evan Turner, G, Ohio State
No one has had a better start to the season than OSU's Turner. He has already posted two triple-doubles and is averaging 20 ppg, 13 rpg and nearly 7 apg. Turner's move to the point has come much more naturally than we thought, and it's hard to name a more complete player in America. Like Wall, Turner needs to improve his 3-point shooting and cut down on the turnovers, but his steady play has moved him all the way up to No. 3 on our Big Board.
4. Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
Davis began the season ranked No. 2 on our board but hasn't had the coming-out party we expected. However, Davis has proven to be a highly efficient scorer, a terrific rebounder and a great energy guy in the paint. He needs to improve his skill level offensively and get stronger, but he's posting better rebounding and shot-blocking numbers than Favors.
Now, the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick.
New Jersey Nets
Given the historic pace at which the Nets are losing, they should have the best shot (25 percent) of winning the lottery. The Nets have two solid building blocks at this point -- center Brook Lopez and point guard Devin Harris. However, there have been signs that the Nets would be willing to move Harris in the right deal.
While Harris is extremely quick and a good scorer, he doesn't quite have the dominant upside of a player like Wall. Favors and Davis could also help the team. New Jersey has invested a lot of energy in getting Yi Jianlian up to speed, but the results (due in part to injuries) have been pretty disappointing.
The Nets drafted Terrence Williams to be their wing of the future, but his outlook is still very much in doubt. Williams is a terrific athlete and very versatile, but he posted horrendous shooting percentages in college and has continued that trend in the pros. That means Turner could also be a strong asset for the Nets.
So, in which direction will they go? While the Nets may have a lot of options, a source in New Jersey tells me that Wall is the favorite right now.
EDGE: John Wall
Minnesota Timberwolves
GM David Kahn drafted three point guards in the first round last year -- Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn and Ty Lawson (he later traded Lawson to Denver). Then he signed another point guard, Ramon Sessions, as a free agent. Would he really draft another point in 2010?
Wall has something that neither Flynn nor Rubio nor Session possesses -- otherworldly athleticism. Flynn is a great athlete, but undersized. Rubio has great size, but isn't a great athlete. Sessions falls somewhere in the middle. On the other hand, Wall isn't quite the shooter that Flynn is, nor does he possess the amazing court vision of Rubio.
Given all the complexity and assets at the point, it would seem like Favors might be a better fit. However, Kahn's other two young building blocks are Al Jefferson and Kevin Love -- two players who play the same two positions as Favors. While neither player has the length or athleticism of Favors, they are both more skilled, especially down on the low block.
Turner would fill a glaring hole at the wing for the Wolves, but the question is, if the Wolves get the No. 1 pick, would they take him that high?
I did a little snooping around Minnesota and I think Wall would still get the nod there. There would be a robust trade market for Flynn and/or Rubio if the Wolves were to take Wall.
EDGE: John Wall
New York Knicks Utah Jazz
Knicks fans may want to quit reading. The Knicks would've had a terrific shot at the No. 1 pick -- if they actually owned their first-rounder. The Knicks traded away their rights to this pick in the Stephon Marbury trade back when Isiah Thomas was destroying the franchise.
The Jazz are going to get the Knicks' pick whether it's No. 1 or No. 30.
It's a devastating blow for a Knicks team that desperately needs an infusion of talent. Wall, in particular, would be perfect in New York. The Knicks need a star in the worst way and are also in major need of a point guard. Wall would provide both.
However, it's a moot point. The Jazz will be making this pick. The question is, whom will they take?
The Jazz already have a young, All-Star-caliber point guard in Deron Williams. Williams may not be as explosive athletically as Wall, but I don't think they are giving up on him any time soon. They could try to play Wall and Williams together -- they are different players -- but I'm not sure how well that would work. They'd have a very small backcourt.
Favors seems like the logical choice if Utah gets the No. 1 pick. Carlos Boozer is on his way out via free agency and Mehmet Okur has only a few years of productivity left. Yes, the Jazz just signed Paul Millsap to a huge contract, but Favors would be a nice complement to him.
I think the Jazz are the one team of the three that seems likely to pick Favors over Wall.
EDGE: Derrick Favors
We'll keep following the argument as the season continues, but right now it looks like Wall is the odds-on favorite to nab the No. 1 pick.
The Midrange Game
• The Knicks aren't the only team that will be forfeiting its No. 1 pick in June.
Two other teams definitely will lose their first-rounders: The Mavericks must send their No. 1 pick to the Nets, while the Suns will send their No. 1 pick to the Thunder.
A few other teams are likely to ship away their picks. The Nuggets owe a lottery-protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. The Lakers will also be sending their first-round pick to Memphis this summer (as long as the Lakers' pick isn't in the top six). And while the Jazz will score the Knicks' No. 1, they owe their own top-15-protected No. 1 to the Timberwolves.
Finally, there are a few long shots. The Raptors owe the Heat a lottery-protected first-round pick. However, given the Raptors' early struggles, it looks like the pick might be safe.
The Bobcats owe the Timberwolves their first-round pick as well. The Bobcats' pick is top-12 protected and looked safe all year. However, given the Bobcats' recent strong play, it's conceivable that they might have to surrender this pick to Minnesota. The Wolves also owe the Clippers a top-10 protected pick -- but that seems pretty safe. It's highly unlikely that the Wolves will draft 11th or higher.
• A lot of NBA scouts are beginning to ask whether Oklahoma's Willie Warren made a mistake by returning to the Sooners for his sophomore season. With Blake Griffin in the frontcourt last season, Warren got lots of open looks and appeared to be a top-10 pick. However, the Sooners are struggling this season, and Warren is having a tough time carrying the load.
Warren's scoring average (20.4 ppg) is terrific, but his shooting percentages (.418 FG percentage, .222 3-point percentage) and turnovers (4.2 per game) are ugly. Even worse, the Sooners are losing to mediocre teams -- not what NBA GMs want to see from their potential top-five point guard. To top things off, Warren sat out OU's most recent game against Nicholls State with the dreaded "DNP -- Coach's Decision." There's no word yet on why he didn't play, but there are rumblings that Warren's selfish play has chafed head coach Jeff Capel.
Warren has slipped from No. 4 to No. 7 on our Big Board. But he could be in for an even bigger slide if this keeps up.
• West Virginia's Devin Ebanks is finally back in uniform after his absence for "personal reasons." West Virginia still hasn't been specific about why Ebanks was missing, but there have been all sorts of rumors -- none of them good for Ebanks' draft stock. Ebanks looked pretty rusty in his first two games back. He's averaging a solid 14 ppg in his first two games for the Mountaineers, but he's been shooting a pretty poor percentage (.421).
Tuesday, December 1, 2009 | Print Entry
Posted by Chad Ford
There may be 168 days until the NBA draft lottery but, given how poorly a handful of teams are playing this season, we already have a pretty good idea of who will be hoarding the pingpong balls this year.
The New Jersey Nets are a historically pitiful 0-17. The Minnesota Timberwolves aren't far behind at a pathetic 2-15. And the New York Knicks aren't faring much better at a paltry 3-14. While there are plenty of other teams struggling, it seems like these three teams in particular are in for a long season.
That means that fans of all three teams are already focusing on this summer and the 2010 draft. Whom would each team draft if they were to win the lottery?
First, the contenders:
1. John Wall, PG, Kentucky
It's hard for a player's stock to go up when he's been ranked all year as the No. 1 pick in the draft, but Wall's has. Every scout and GM who has seen him play has been wowed by Wall's early performance. Wall came into the season with a lot of hype and hasn't disappointed. He's proven he can score, dish out assists, play defense and make big plays when his team needs it. He's got to work on those turnovers and his 3-point shooting, but Wall has a vise grip on the No. 1 spot on our Big Board at the moment.
2. Derrick Favors, F/C, Georgia Tech
Favors isn't having quite as strong of a season as Wall, but he's got two things going for him. Size and athleticism come at a premium in the NBA, and Favors has both. He has the chance to be a dominant inside presence -- a cross between Amare Stoudemire and Dwight Howard. However, Favors isn't there yet. His early numbers at Georgia Tech (13.6 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks in 24 minutes per game) are very good for a freshman but not quite dominant. If he really gets it going in the second half of the season, he'll be a legit No. 1 pick.
3. Evan Turner, G, Ohio State
No one has had a better start to the season than OSU's Turner. He has already posted two triple-doubles and is averaging 20 ppg, 13 rpg and nearly 7 apg. Turner's move to the point has come much more naturally than we thought, and it's hard to name a more complete player in America. Like Wall, Turner needs to improve his 3-point shooting and cut down on the turnovers, but his steady play has moved him all the way up to No. 3 on our Big Board.
4. Ed Davis, PF, North Carolina
Davis began the season ranked No. 2 on our board but hasn't had the coming-out party we expected. However, Davis has proven to be a highly efficient scorer, a terrific rebounder and a great energy guy in the paint. He needs to improve his skill level offensively and get stronger, but he's posting better rebounding and shot-blocking numbers than Favors.
Now, the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick.
New Jersey Nets
Given the historic pace at which the Nets are losing, they should have the best shot (25 percent) of winning the lottery. The Nets have two solid building blocks at this point -- center Brook Lopez and point guard Devin Harris. However, there have been signs that the Nets would be willing to move Harris in the right deal.
While Harris is extremely quick and a good scorer, he doesn't quite have the dominant upside of a player like Wall. Favors and Davis could also help the team. New Jersey has invested a lot of energy in getting Yi Jianlian up to speed, but the results (due in part to injuries) have been pretty disappointing.
The Nets drafted Terrence Williams to be their wing of the future, but his outlook is still very much in doubt. Williams is a terrific athlete and very versatile, but he posted horrendous shooting percentages in college and has continued that trend in the pros. That means Turner could also be a strong asset for the Nets.
So, in which direction will they go? While the Nets may have a lot of options, a source in New Jersey tells me that Wall is the favorite right now.
EDGE: John Wall
Minnesota Timberwolves
GM David Kahn drafted three point guards in the first round last year -- Ricky Rubio, Jonny Flynn and Ty Lawson (he later traded Lawson to Denver). Then he signed another point guard, Ramon Sessions, as a free agent. Would he really draft another point in 2010?
Wall has something that neither Flynn nor Rubio nor Session possesses -- otherworldly athleticism. Flynn is a great athlete, but undersized. Rubio has great size, but isn't a great athlete. Sessions falls somewhere in the middle. On the other hand, Wall isn't quite the shooter that Flynn is, nor does he possess the amazing court vision of Rubio.
Given all the complexity and assets at the point, it would seem like Favors might be a better fit. However, Kahn's other two young building blocks are Al Jefferson and Kevin Love -- two players who play the same two positions as Favors. While neither player has the length or athleticism of Favors, they are both more skilled, especially down on the low block.
Turner would fill a glaring hole at the wing for the Wolves, but the question is, if the Wolves get the No. 1 pick, would they take him that high?
I did a little snooping around Minnesota and I think Wall would still get the nod there. There would be a robust trade market for Flynn and/or Rubio if the Wolves were to take Wall.
EDGE: John Wall
New York Knicks Utah Jazz
Knicks fans may want to quit reading. The Knicks would've had a terrific shot at the No. 1 pick -- if they actually owned their first-rounder. The Knicks traded away their rights to this pick in the Stephon Marbury trade back when Isiah Thomas was destroying the franchise.
The Jazz are going to get the Knicks' pick whether it's No. 1 or No. 30.
It's a devastating blow for a Knicks team that desperately needs an infusion of talent. Wall, in particular, would be perfect in New York. The Knicks need a star in the worst way and are also in major need of a point guard. Wall would provide both.
However, it's a moot point. The Jazz will be making this pick. The question is, whom will they take?
The Jazz already have a young, All-Star-caliber point guard in Deron Williams. Williams may not be as explosive athletically as Wall, but I don't think they are giving up on him any time soon. They could try to play Wall and Williams together -- they are different players -- but I'm not sure how well that would work. They'd have a very small backcourt.
Favors seems like the logical choice if Utah gets the No. 1 pick. Carlos Boozer is on his way out via free agency and Mehmet Okur has only a few years of productivity left. Yes, the Jazz just signed Paul Millsap to a huge contract, but Favors would be a nice complement to him.
I think the Jazz are the one team of the three that seems likely to pick Favors over Wall.
EDGE: Derrick Favors
We'll keep following the argument as the season continues, but right now it looks like Wall is the odds-on favorite to nab the No. 1 pick.
The Midrange Game
• The Knicks aren't the only team that will be forfeiting its No. 1 pick in June.
Two other teams definitely will lose their first-rounders: The Mavericks must send their No. 1 pick to the Nets, while the Suns will send their No. 1 pick to the Thunder.
A few other teams are likely to ship away their picks. The Nuggets owe a lottery-protected first-round pick to the Grizzlies. The Lakers will also be sending their first-round pick to Memphis this summer (as long as the Lakers' pick isn't in the top six). And while the Jazz will score the Knicks' No. 1, they owe their own top-15-protected No. 1 to the Timberwolves.
Finally, there are a few long shots. The Raptors owe the Heat a lottery-protected first-round pick. However, given the Raptors' early struggles, it looks like the pick might be safe.
The Bobcats owe the Timberwolves their first-round pick as well. The Bobcats' pick is top-12 protected and looked safe all year. However, given the Bobcats' recent strong play, it's conceivable that they might have to surrender this pick to Minnesota. The Wolves also owe the Clippers a top-10 protected pick -- but that seems pretty safe. It's highly unlikely that the Wolves will draft 11th or higher.
• A lot of NBA scouts are beginning to ask whether Oklahoma's Willie Warren made a mistake by returning to the Sooners for his sophomore season. With Blake Griffin in the frontcourt last season, Warren got lots of open looks and appeared to be a top-10 pick. However, the Sooners are struggling this season, and Warren is having a tough time carrying the load.
Warren's scoring average (20.4 ppg) is terrific, but his shooting percentages (.418 FG percentage, .222 3-point percentage) and turnovers (4.2 per game) are ugly. Even worse, the Sooners are losing to mediocre teams -- not what NBA GMs want to see from their potential top-five point guard. To top things off, Warren sat out OU's most recent game against Nicholls State with the dreaded "DNP -- Coach's Decision." There's no word yet on why he didn't play, but there are rumblings that Warren's selfish play has chafed head coach Jeff Capel.
Warren has slipped from No. 4 to No. 7 on our Big Board. But he could be in for an even bigger slide if this keeps up.
• West Virginia's Devin Ebanks is finally back in uniform after his absence for "personal reasons." West Virginia still hasn't been specific about why Ebanks was missing, but there have been all sorts of rumors -- none of them good for Ebanks' draft stock. Ebanks looked pretty rusty in his first two games back. He's averaging a solid 14 ppg in his first two games for the Mountaineers, but he's been shooting a pretty poor percentage (.421).
