Post by FLCeltsFan on Nov 13, 2009 14:12:10 GMT -5
Biggest disappointments this season
PER Diem: Nov. 13, 2009Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Chris McGrath/Getty Images
The Knicks have been so bad this season, even teams in proximity of New York are disappointing.
Deron Williams and Chris Paul. The two have been inextricably linked throughout their careers, ever since they went third and fourth, respectively, in the 2005 draft. Debates have raged throughout the nearly half-decade of their careers as to which one is better, with both taking part in deep playoff runs that caught much of the nation by surprise.
And now, they find themselves on a very different list. While both players have been outstanding thus far this season -- arguably better than they have ever been -- their teams can't say the same. So while Williams has the league's longest-tenured coach (Jerry Sloan) and Paul will suit up Friday for a man who has never been a head coach in the NBA or college (Jeff Bower), both players are in the same boat: Their teams, thought to be 50-win caliber with outside shots at contending, have instead been among the league's biggest disappointments.
Beset by mediocrity at the wing positions and lacking quality depth up front, Paul's Hornets have limped out to a 3-6 start that saw coach Byron Scott get his walking papers Thursday. Williams' Jazz haven't been much better, at 3-5 with home losses to Sacramento and Houston. The Hornets are the only team to lose to the Knicks; the Jazz were two points from joining them on that brief list.
In each case, it's a worrying carryover from last season. New Orleans limped into the 2009 postseason and then infamously dropped Game 4 by 58 points at home against the Nuggets. Utah, meanwhile, closed 8-15 over the final 23 games, including the playoffs, even though its whole roster was healthy. That hasn't been the case so far this season, as injuries to C.J. Miles and Kyle Korver have left them bereft of shooters against a steady stream of zone defenses. Nonetheless, the carryover from last season seems palpable.
Neither Paul nor Williams has been a disappointment -- Paul leads the league in PER, while Williams is second in assists (9.9 per game) and seems on target for his first All-Star berth. Their teams, however, are a different story -- both Utah and New Orleans stand atop my list of the league's biggest early-season disappointments.
On the heels of Wednesday's look at the league's top surprises, here are a few other disappointments from the campaign's first fortnight:
Anything within reach of New York
Apparently it wasn't enough for just the Knicks to be horrible. Now they're the epicenter of an East Coast stink bomb that reaches all the way into the Carolinas, taking the Nets, Sixers, Wizards and Bobcats in a tractor beam of awfulness.
But it's the two New York-area teams that have been the worst of all. Not only are New York and New Jersey a combined 1-16, but on most nights, they haven't even been close. The two teams' average margin is a 10-point defeat, which will make each among the worst teams in history if the trend continues. It might, in fact, get worse -- only seven of their combined 17 games have been on the road.
If morbid curiosity has you wondering when they'll meet up, it's Nov. 21 in the Meadowlands. Thing are especially bad for the Knicks. New York won't even reap a lottery pick from its struggles, having traded it several years ago to acquire Stephon Marbury.
Brand
Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert
One reason I was high on the Sixers entering this season was my assumption that their frontcourt would rebound from last season's disappointing performance. Wow, was I wrong. If anything, Samuel Dalembert and Elton Brand both have been even worse than they were last season. We at least sort of expected this from Dalembert, who was unhappy last season and whom the Sixers have been desperately trying to trade for several months. While his wildly fluctuating energy levels aren't a surprise anymore, his league-worst turnover ratio is.
Dalembert
But Brand? His performance has been shocking. While it's true that he's hardly played the past two seasons because of Achilles and shoulder injuries, it's the glaring decline in athleticism that has been the most jarring issue. He has just six blocks in eight games, and his rebounding has slumped to a mere 8.3 per 40 minutes. He's been reduced to a midrange jump shooter, and not even a terribly good one at 41.2 percent from the floor.
Making matters worse, these two are soaking up nearly half the salary cap for a financially limited organization. While Dalembert's $60 million contract was the final insult of the Billy King era, Brand's $85 million deal already looks like an albatross that will stay with new GM Ed Stefanski for half a decade.
Duhon
Chris Duhon
The Knicks are a story, but so are the struggles of their point guard in his second season in Gotham. Playing in Mike D'Antoni's point guard-driven attack, Duhon is shooting just 23.6 percent. That's not a typo. It's not just outside shots that are the problem, either; Duhon is only 8-for-37 (21.6 percent) from inside the arc. Ugh. Since this comes on the heels of a precipitous decline at the end of last season, the worries about Duhon's continued ability to hold down the point guard job in New York are very real. It appears he might pull off the difficult feat of losing the gig despite being the only true point guard on the roster.
Butler
Caron Butler
All the attention in D.C. has been on "Agent Zero," and to a lesser extent, the rash of injuries that's already hit the Wizards. Under the radar, however, Butler is struggling, and it's a big reason the Wizards rank a disappointing 20th in offensive efficiency thus far. Butler is shooting only 39.3 percent from the floor, and his jumper appears to have all but deserted him -- he's made just three triples the entire season.
The most shocking number, however, is this one: 2.7. That's Butler's assist ratio though seven games. He has taken 90 shots and has only four assists -- yes, four. That's the league's worst assist ratio among small forwards, and on a team that's always been accused of not sharing the ball enough, it's a worrying sign.
Orlando's and San Antonio's D
Two elite defensive teams are struggling mightily to get stops out of the gate. One of those names perhaps should not surprise us. While the Spurs are only 23rd in defensive efficiency so far, they started out even worse last season before righting the ship and finishing in their usual perch among the league leaders.
But Orlando? This wasn't supposed to happen. The Magic led the league in defensive efficiency last season and returned defensive player of the year Dwight Howard. However, the Magic have struggled to get stops and find themselves a mere 17th in the defensive tables this season.
Both teams have made personnel changes and are getting acclimated to their roster additions, but that excuse goes only so far. Nearly every team in the league made some changes in the offseason, and most are coping much better at the defensive end than the Magic and Spurs -- including the likes of New Jersey, Detroit and Indiana.
Iverson
Allen Iverson and Mike Conley
Iverson's presence on this list won't come as a surprise to anyone after his drama-queen routine when he came off the bench in his first game with the Grizzlies. Under the radar, however, is the issue of Conley's play for 1-8 Memphis. His game appeared to take off down the stretch a season ago following Lionel Hollins' promotion to head coach, but Conley has regressed mightily so far this season.
Perhaps it's the specter of Iverson's shadow hanging over him, or perhaps last season was a mirage. Whatever the cause, Conley's output has been awful -- he's shooting 37.7 percent with a sky-high turnover rate, and his 8.22 PER is the worst of any point guard not named Duhon playing 30 or more minutes a game. We know Iverson isn't "The Answer" for Memphis at the point, but the ongoing question in Memphis is whether Conley can be. It's his third season, and he's yet to establish himself as a long-term solution.
Charlotte's point guards
Man, it's been a bad few weeks for veteran point guards, huh? In the Bobcats' case, poor play from the point has been a huge reason their offense remains mired in the muck. Charlotte is dead last in offensive efficiency, partly because Raymond Felton (PER 10.79) and D.J. Augustin (PER 9.76) can't generate any offense. Each is shooting in the 30s from the field and in the 20s on 3s; worse yet, between them, they average a completely unacceptable mix of 7.9 assists against 5.0 turnovers per game -- in other words, an almost negative pure point rating.
Augustin's case is particularly vexing because he seemed like a rising offensive force with his strong play as a rookie last season. He's also Charlotte's best hope for improvement going forward, as the Bobcats are mostly a veteran crew. If he can't deliver much better offense than he's shown thus far, this could go down as one of the worst offensive teams in history.
Ilgauskas
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Perhaps it's the adjustment to coming off the bench behind Shaquille O'Neal and having to start his 35-year-old bones from a cold start. Perhaps he's just continuing a serious decline that seemed to have its roots in last season's playoff struggles. Whatever the reason, Ilgauskas is really struggling. His 8.89 PER is less than half his mark of a season ago, while his per-minute scoring rate is in similar straits.
If anything, he appears to be getting worse -- Thursday night's 0-for-3 from the field put him at 4-for-31 in his past five games. If this continues to be the case, the O'Neal trade becomes a much bigger deal for the Cavs -- a necessity rather than a luxury. It also could portend his eventual departure, as his $11.5 million expiring deal is Cleveland's best trade chip.
Williams
Terrence Williams
On a New Jersey team lacking offensive options, rookie Williams has been given enough rope to hang himself. So far, the noose seems pretty tight. Through eight games for the winless Nets, their lottery pick has produced double-figure scoring but in monstrously inefficient ways.
He's shooting 35.8 percent from the floor with one of the lowest free throw rates at his position (although perhaps the latter is a good thing since he struggles so much from the line). The Nets have put him in a playmaking role, but with a 1-1 assist-turnover ratio, it hasn't produced the results they were hoping for. It's early yet, of course, but as a rare college senior taken in the lottery, the hope was Williams would produce more immediate dividends.
Jack
Jarrett Jack
Toronto's $20 million man isn't off to a good start. While the rest of the Raptors are ripping the nets to the tune of the league's top offensive efficiency mark, Jarrett hasn't done Jack. He is shooting 34.5 percent form the floor and sports a horrid 5.48 PER though the first eight games, despite playing the combo guard role off the bench that seems perfectly suited to his skills.
Toronto needs to hope it's just a cold snap, as it has four years invested in Jack, 26. One wonders whether he'll be the latest in a long line of victims of the Curse of the Midlevel Exception.
PER Diem: Nov. 13, 2009Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Chris McGrath/Getty Images
The Knicks have been so bad this season, even teams in proximity of New York are disappointing.
Deron Williams and Chris Paul. The two have been inextricably linked throughout their careers, ever since they went third and fourth, respectively, in the 2005 draft. Debates have raged throughout the nearly half-decade of their careers as to which one is better, with both taking part in deep playoff runs that caught much of the nation by surprise.
And now, they find themselves on a very different list. While both players have been outstanding thus far this season -- arguably better than they have ever been -- their teams can't say the same. So while Williams has the league's longest-tenured coach (Jerry Sloan) and Paul will suit up Friday for a man who has never been a head coach in the NBA or college (Jeff Bower), both players are in the same boat: Their teams, thought to be 50-win caliber with outside shots at contending, have instead been among the league's biggest disappointments.
Beset by mediocrity at the wing positions and lacking quality depth up front, Paul's Hornets have limped out to a 3-6 start that saw coach Byron Scott get his walking papers Thursday. Williams' Jazz haven't been much better, at 3-5 with home losses to Sacramento and Houston. The Hornets are the only team to lose to the Knicks; the Jazz were two points from joining them on that brief list.
In each case, it's a worrying carryover from last season. New Orleans limped into the 2009 postseason and then infamously dropped Game 4 by 58 points at home against the Nuggets. Utah, meanwhile, closed 8-15 over the final 23 games, including the playoffs, even though its whole roster was healthy. That hasn't been the case so far this season, as injuries to C.J. Miles and Kyle Korver have left them bereft of shooters against a steady stream of zone defenses. Nonetheless, the carryover from last season seems palpable.
Neither Paul nor Williams has been a disappointment -- Paul leads the league in PER, while Williams is second in assists (9.9 per game) and seems on target for his first All-Star berth. Their teams, however, are a different story -- both Utah and New Orleans stand atop my list of the league's biggest early-season disappointments.
On the heels of Wednesday's look at the league's top surprises, here are a few other disappointments from the campaign's first fortnight:
Anything within reach of New York
Apparently it wasn't enough for just the Knicks to be horrible. Now they're the epicenter of an East Coast stink bomb that reaches all the way into the Carolinas, taking the Nets, Sixers, Wizards and Bobcats in a tractor beam of awfulness.
But it's the two New York-area teams that have been the worst of all. Not only are New York and New Jersey a combined 1-16, but on most nights, they haven't even been close. The two teams' average margin is a 10-point defeat, which will make each among the worst teams in history if the trend continues. It might, in fact, get worse -- only seven of their combined 17 games have been on the road.
If morbid curiosity has you wondering when they'll meet up, it's Nov. 21 in the Meadowlands. Thing are especially bad for the Knicks. New York won't even reap a lottery pick from its struggles, having traded it several years ago to acquire Stephon Marbury.
Brand
Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert
One reason I was high on the Sixers entering this season was my assumption that their frontcourt would rebound from last season's disappointing performance. Wow, was I wrong. If anything, Samuel Dalembert and Elton Brand both have been even worse than they were last season. We at least sort of expected this from Dalembert, who was unhappy last season and whom the Sixers have been desperately trying to trade for several months. While his wildly fluctuating energy levels aren't a surprise anymore, his league-worst turnover ratio is.
Dalembert
But Brand? His performance has been shocking. While it's true that he's hardly played the past two seasons because of Achilles and shoulder injuries, it's the glaring decline in athleticism that has been the most jarring issue. He has just six blocks in eight games, and his rebounding has slumped to a mere 8.3 per 40 minutes. He's been reduced to a midrange jump shooter, and not even a terribly good one at 41.2 percent from the floor.
Making matters worse, these two are soaking up nearly half the salary cap for a financially limited organization. While Dalembert's $60 million contract was the final insult of the Billy King era, Brand's $85 million deal already looks like an albatross that will stay with new GM Ed Stefanski for half a decade.
Duhon
Chris Duhon
The Knicks are a story, but so are the struggles of their point guard in his second season in Gotham. Playing in Mike D'Antoni's point guard-driven attack, Duhon is shooting just 23.6 percent. That's not a typo. It's not just outside shots that are the problem, either; Duhon is only 8-for-37 (21.6 percent) from inside the arc. Ugh. Since this comes on the heels of a precipitous decline at the end of last season, the worries about Duhon's continued ability to hold down the point guard job in New York are very real. It appears he might pull off the difficult feat of losing the gig despite being the only true point guard on the roster.
Butler
Caron Butler
All the attention in D.C. has been on "Agent Zero," and to a lesser extent, the rash of injuries that's already hit the Wizards. Under the radar, however, Butler is struggling, and it's a big reason the Wizards rank a disappointing 20th in offensive efficiency thus far. Butler is shooting only 39.3 percent from the floor, and his jumper appears to have all but deserted him -- he's made just three triples the entire season.
The most shocking number, however, is this one: 2.7. That's Butler's assist ratio though seven games. He has taken 90 shots and has only four assists -- yes, four. That's the league's worst assist ratio among small forwards, and on a team that's always been accused of not sharing the ball enough, it's a worrying sign.
Orlando's and San Antonio's D
Two elite defensive teams are struggling mightily to get stops out of the gate. One of those names perhaps should not surprise us. While the Spurs are only 23rd in defensive efficiency so far, they started out even worse last season before righting the ship and finishing in their usual perch among the league leaders.
But Orlando? This wasn't supposed to happen. The Magic led the league in defensive efficiency last season and returned defensive player of the year Dwight Howard. However, the Magic have struggled to get stops and find themselves a mere 17th in the defensive tables this season.
Both teams have made personnel changes and are getting acclimated to their roster additions, but that excuse goes only so far. Nearly every team in the league made some changes in the offseason, and most are coping much better at the defensive end than the Magic and Spurs -- including the likes of New Jersey, Detroit and Indiana.
Iverson
Allen Iverson and Mike Conley
Iverson's presence on this list won't come as a surprise to anyone after his drama-queen routine when he came off the bench in his first game with the Grizzlies. Under the radar, however, is the issue of Conley's play for 1-8 Memphis. His game appeared to take off down the stretch a season ago following Lionel Hollins' promotion to head coach, but Conley has regressed mightily so far this season.
Perhaps it's the specter of Iverson's shadow hanging over him, or perhaps last season was a mirage. Whatever the cause, Conley's output has been awful -- he's shooting 37.7 percent with a sky-high turnover rate, and his 8.22 PER is the worst of any point guard not named Duhon playing 30 or more minutes a game. We know Iverson isn't "The Answer" for Memphis at the point, but the ongoing question in Memphis is whether Conley can be. It's his third season, and he's yet to establish himself as a long-term solution.
Charlotte's point guards
Man, it's been a bad few weeks for veteran point guards, huh? In the Bobcats' case, poor play from the point has been a huge reason their offense remains mired in the muck. Charlotte is dead last in offensive efficiency, partly because Raymond Felton (PER 10.79) and D.J. Augustin (PER 9.76) can't generate any offense. Each is shooting in the 30s from the field and in the 20s on 3s; worse yet, between them, they average a completely unacceptable mix of 7.9 assists against 5.0 turnovers per game -- in other words, an almost negative pure point rating.
Augustin's case is particularly vexing because he seemed like a rising offensive force with his strong play as a rookie last season. He's also Charlotte's best hope for improvement going forward, as the Bobcats are mostly a veteran crew. If he can't deliver much better offense than he's shown thus far, this could go down as one of the worst offensive teams in history.
Ilgauskas
Zydrunas Ilgauskas
Perhaps it's the adjustment to coming off the bench behind Shaquille O'Neal and having to start his 35-year-old bones from a cold start. Perhaps he's just continuing a serious decline that seemed to have its roots in last season's playoff struggles. Whatever the reason, Ilgauskas is really struggling. His 8.89 PER is less than half his mark of a season ago, while his per-minute scoring rate is in similar straits.
If anything, he appears to be getting worse -- Thursday night's 0-for-3 from the field put him at 4-for-31 in his past five games. If this continues to be the case, the O'Neal trade becomes a much bigger deal for the Cavs -- a necessity rather than a luxury. It also could portend his eventual departure, as his $11.5 million expiring deal is Cleveland's best trade chip.
Williams
Terrence Williams
On a New Jersey team lacking offensive options, rookie Williams has been given enough rope to hang himself. So far, the noose seems pretty tight. Through eight games for the winless Nets, their lottery pick has produced double-figure scoring but in monstrously inefficient ways.
He's shooting 35.8 percent from the floor with one of the lowest free throw rates at his position (although perhaps the latter is a good thing since he struggles so much from the line). The Nets have put him in a playmaking role, but with a 1-1 assist-turnover ratio, it hasn't produced the results they were hoping for. It's early yet, of course, but as a rare college senior taken in the lottery, the hope was Williams would produce more immediate dividends.
Jack
Jarrett Jack
Toronto's $20 million man isn't off to a good start. While the rest of the Raptors are ripping the nets to the tune of the league's top offensive efficiency mark, Jarrett hasn't done Jack. He is shooting 34.5 percent form the floor and sports a horrid 5.48 PER though the first eight games, despite playing the combo guard role off the bench that seems perfectly suited to his skills.
Toronto needs to hope it's just a cold snap, as it has four years invested in Jack, 26. One wonders whether he'll be the latest in a long line of victims of the Curse of the Midlevel Exception.
