Post by FLCeltsFan on Nov 4, 2009 16:37:19 GMT -5
Scoring on the rise? Let's investigate ...PER Diem: Nov. 4, 2009Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger
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AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
Is Dirk's 40-point explosion Tuesday (29 in the fourth quarter) a sign of things to come this season?
Remember back in the halcyon days of, oh, 24 hours ago, when it seemed like a tidal wave of offense was about to swamp the league?
Our Marc Stein reported Tuesday that shooting numbers were up -- way up -- all across the league, as was offense overall through the first seven days of the season. And Marc was right.
Alas, in the early part of the season, one bad day (or one good one) can radically alter the numbers.
And so it went Tuesday night. Eighteen teams were in action, and only five of them broke the century mark, with the Lakers needing overtime to get there. We saw a lot of stellar defensive performances, led by Thabo Sefolosha and Ron Artest playing a defensive version of can-you-top-this in the Lakers-Thunder game, but other than Dirk Nowitzki's fourth-quarter fireworks in Dallas, we saw precious little offense.
And the result? On Tuesday alone, the league field goal percentage fell from .455 to .450 and the scoring rate from 199.9 points per game to 197.8. Suddenly, the offensive explosion seems a bit more tame.
But the difference remains evident, particularly on 3-pointers. The league as a whole is shooting 35.9 percent on 3s through eight days of play, up from 33.7 percent at the same time last season. And free throw shooting is up, from last season's record 74.9 percent to 75.9 percent.
The scale of the change in scoring and shooting this season should become more apparent in the next three weeks. Last season, the league had a rough first week offensively before picking things up toward the end of the first month -- historically, offenses slowly gain the upper hand as the season goes on -- so if this is the "rough" part for offenses, we're about to see an offensive explosion over the next few weeks.
That might not be the case, however, and the numbers from last season might catch up quickly as we get deeper into November. My numbers for the first month of last season show a league offensive efficiency rating of 102.5 and a league scoring rate of 196.0 points per game. Right now, we're slightly ahead of that at 103.0 and 197.8, respectively, but things would have to keep spiraling upward from here for a substantial difference to remain between the two seasons.
Nonetheless, let's go there. Suppose it works out that Tuesday night was the aberration and offenses really have gained the upper hand, to the point that league offensive efficiency finishes the season, at, say, 108 or 109 (last season, it finished at 104.8). The implications for how teams play the game suddenly become huge.
For instance:
• If the league field goal and 3-point percentages stay this far above historical norms for the entire season, it would make much more sense for teams to trap and try to force turnovers. The potential gain of eliminating a shot attempt increases the more likely it is that the opponent will make the shot.
• Similarly, low-turnover offensive players would become comparatively more valuable, as preserving as many shot attempts as possible becomes paramount.
• Rebounding, on the other hand, would be devalued, because fewer missed caroms would be available for collection. Oddly enough, this would only reinforce the trend already taking place, in which teams replace inside power with outside shooting, perhaps fueling a continued offensive ascendancy.
• Tactical fouling would make a lot more sense, as the league free throw percentage isn't increasing nearly as much as the other percentages.
• And finally, the "international strategy" in endgame situations might come into vogue. Currently, in a tie game in which the opponent has the last shot, teams opt to play defense and try to send the game to overtime. In international ball, where the expected value of a possession is about 10 percent higher, nobody does that. They foul immediately to try to get the ball back for their own possession. It will take some stones to be the first NBA team to try this, but we're not far from the tipping point at which following this strategy will make more sense than the current orthodoxy.
The big-picture takeaway? The game is changing. It's always changing, of course, but some seasons offer more change than others. This time it seems teams really have bought into the idea of using their 4-man as a perimeter shooter, spacing the floor and worrying about defense later. Toronto, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Miami and Phoenix are among the recent converts, and that's probably why we're seeing such a sharp increase in 3-point percentage, in particular.
Of course, the danger in drawing conclusions after eight days is that Day 9 can engender a big shift in the data -- just as Day 8 did Tuesday. I still suspect we're going to see a 2 to 3 percent increase in offensive indicators across the board (except free throws, which would be hard-pressed to improve more than 1 percent or so), but that's just an instinctive call. At this point, it remains unclear whether the league's early uptick in offense is merely incremental or part of something truly revolutionary.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other thoughts from around the leauge:
• Time to break down Dallas' remarkable win over Utah on Tuesday night. The Mavs, who scored 52 points through three quarters, exploded for 44 in the fourth. Over the final 8:16, they outscored Utah 36-9 to turn a 16-point deficit into an 11-point win.
The Mavs scored on 15 of their final 16 trips, producing 34 points, for a surreal offensive efficiency rating of 226.7. Nowitzki had 25 of those points, including 14 in a row on six straight trips, and assisted the only field goal he didn't score himself.
Utah, meanwhile, inexplicably chose to single-cover Nowitzki throughout this stretch with plodder Mehmet Okur. Carlos Boozer, who had guarded him for much of the game, had five fouls, but this would be a tough matchup for Okur in the best of circumstances, and he was just coming off an ankle injury. In 20-20 hindsight, putting Andrei Kirilenko on Nowitzki -- or just straight double-teaming him, given that Jason Terry was the only dangerous Dallas shooter on the floor -- would have been a far better option.
Which takes us back to the point I made in the lead item above. Utah is basically the last of the Mohicans as far as playing a power game with two traditional big men. While Okur is a 3-point shooter, neither he nor Boozer is terribly effective guarding the perimeter (nor guarding the paint, for that matter), and it makes me wonder whether the Jazz have to adjust by making the long-rumored deal of Boozer for a perimeter player. It would seem they'd have no choice if they can't shake the doldrums of their 1-3 start. Who would want to pay luxury tax to finish in the lottery?
The big beneficiary of such a move would be Kirilenko, a classic small-ball 4 whose game has atrophied as a wing player the past three seasons. Putting him at the 4 while acquiring a more traditional wing player who could make shots might be the elixir Utah needs to shake its rough start & not to mention shaking off the tax man.
• For the third season in a row, the Celtics have come out like gangbusters. All that offensive explosion stuff I wrote about above must sound like it's from a different league to Celtics fans, who watched their squad demoralize another offense in a 105-74 rout of Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Sixers entered the game leading the league in offensive efficiency. By the time Boston got done with them, they were a distant 12th. The Sixers needed 96 trips to eke out 74 points on the Celtics' mighty D, making just one of 16 3-pointers.
Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency after five games, but even that understates its dominance. The Celtics are nearly seven points ahead of second-place Dallas in the charts and nearly 18 ahead of the league average, putting them in completely unheard of territory relative to the league norms. Obviously, it's very, very early, and we know from Boston's history that it tends to charge out of the gate at warp speed.
• It's back to the future for the Hawks, who essentially went to a seven-man rotation -- much like they did for much of last season -- in beating the Blazers on the road 97-91. With no foul trouble -- the Hawks had only 15 personals as a team -- rookie Jeff Teague took home a DNP, and Joe Smith and Maurice Evans played only six minutes apiece.
The other similarity? A one-sided second quarter for Atlanta behind the two primary reserves. This time it was Jamal Crawford, rather than Flip Murray, teaming up with Zaza Pachulia to do the damage, but second quarters behind that bench duo were a major staple of the Hawks' 47-win 2008-09 season. So, too, was the short rotation employed by coach Mike Woodson, although last year it was more out of necessity than choice. We'll be monitoring to see whether either trend remains in play during the opening weeks of this
ESPN.com
Archive
AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill
Is Dirk's 40-point explosion Tuesday (29 in the fourth quarter) a sign of things to come this season?
Remember back in the halcyon days of, oh, 24 hours ago, when it seemed like a tidal wave of offense was about to swamp the league?
Our Marc Stein reported Tuesday that shooting numbers were up -- way up -- all across the league, as was offense overall through the first seven days of the season. And Marc was right.
Alas, in the early part of the season, one bad day (or one good one) can radically alter the numbers.
And so it went Tuesday night. Eighteen teams were in action, and only five of them broke the century mark, with the Lakers needing overtime to get there. We saw a lot of stellar defensive performances, led by Thabo Sefolosha and Ron Artest playing a defensive version of can-you-top-this in the Lakers-Thunder game, but other than Dirk Nowitzki's fourth-quarter fireworks in Dallas, we saw precious little offense.
And the result? On Tuesday alone, the league field goal percentage fell from .455 to .450 and the scoring rate from 199.9 points per game to 197.8. Suddenly, the offensive explosion seems a bit more tame.
But the difference remains evident, particularly on 3-pointers. The league as a whole is shooting 35.9 percent on 3s through eight days of play, up from 33.7 percent at the same time last season. And free throw shooting is up, from last season's record 74.9 percent to 75.9 percent.
The scale of the change in scoring and shooting this season should become more apparent in the next three weeks. Last season, the league had a rough first week offensively before picking things up toward the end of the first month -- historically, offenses slowly gain the upper hand as the season goes on -- so if this is the "rough" part for offenses, we're about to see an offensive explosion over the next few weeks.
That might not be the case, however, and the numbers from last season might catch up quickly as we get deeper into November. My numbers for the first month of last season show a league offensive efficiency rating of 102.5 and a league scoring rate of 196.0 points per game. Right now, we're slightly ahead of that at 103.0 and 197.8, respectively, but things would have to keep spiraling upward from here for a substantial difference to remain between the two seasons.
Nonetheless, let's go there. Suppose it works out that Tuesday night was the aberration and offenses really have gained the upper hand, to the point that league offensive efficiency finishes the season, at, say, 108 or 109 (last season, it finished at 104.8). The implications for how teams play the game suddenly become huge.
For instance:
• If the league field goal and 3-point percentages stay this far above historical norms for the entire season, it would make much more sense for teams to trap and try to force turnovers. The potential gain of eliminating a shot attempt increases the more likely it is that the opponent will make the shot.
• Similarly, low-turnover offensive players would become comparatively more valuable, as preserving as many shot attempts as possible becomes paramount.
• Rebounding, on the other hand, would be devalued, because fewer missed caroms would be available for collection. Oddly enough, this would only reinforce the trend already taking place, in which teams replace inside power with outside shooting, perhaps fueling a continued offensive ascendancy.
• Tactical fouling would make a lot more sense, as the league free throw percentage isn't increasing nearly as much as the other percentages.
• And finally, the "international strategy" in endgame situations might come into vogue. Currently, in a tie game in which the opponent has the last shot, teams opt to play defense and try to send the game to overtime. In international ball, where the expected value of a possession is about 10 percent higher, nobody does that. They foul immediately to try to get the ball back for their own possession. It will take some stones to be the first NBA team to try this, but we're not far from the tipping point at which following this strategy will make more sense than the current orthodoxy.
The big-picture takeaway? The game is changing. It's always changing, of course, but some seasons offer more change than others. This time it seems teams really have bought into the idea of using their 4-man as a perimeter shooter, spacing the floor and worrying about defense later. Toronto, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Miami and Phoenix are among the recent converts, and that's probably why we're seeing such a sharp increase in 3-point percentage, in particular.
Of course, the danger in drawing conclusions after eight days is that Day 9 can engender a big shift in the data -- just as Day 8 did Tuesday. I still suspect we're going to see a 2 to 3 percent increase in offensive indicators across the board (except free throws, which would be hard-pressed to improve more than 1 percent or so), but that's just an instinctive call. At this point, it remains unclear whether the league's early uptick in offense is merely incremental or part of something truly revolutionary.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other thoughts from around the leauge:
• Time to break down Dallas' remarkable win over Utah on Tuesday night. The Mavs, who scored 52 points through three quarters, exploded for 44 in the fourth. Over the final 8:16, they outscored Utah 36-9 to turn a 16-point deficit into an 11-point win.
The Mavs scored on 15 of their final 16 trips, producing 34 points, for a surreal offensive efficiency rating of 226.7. Nowitzki had 25 of those points, including 14 in a row on six straight trips, and assisted the only field goal he didn't score himself.
Utah, meanwhile, inexplicably chose to single-cover Nowitzki throughout this stretch with plodder Mehmet Okur. Carlos Boozer, who had guarded him for much of the game, had five fouls, but this would be a tough matchup for Okur in the best of circumstances, and he was just coming off an ankle injury. In 20-20 hindsight, putting Andrei Kirilenko on Nowitzki -- or just straight double-teaming him, given that Jason Terry was the only dangerous Dallas shooter on the floor -- would have been a far better option.
Which takes us back to the point I made in the lead item above. Utah is basically the last of the Mohicans as far as playing a power game with two traditional big men. While Okur is a 3-point shooter, neither he nor Boozer is terribly effective guarding the perimeter (nor guarding the paint, for that matter), and it makes me wonder whether the Jazz have to adjust by making the long-rumored deal of Boozer for a perimeter player. It would seem they'd have no choice if they can't shake the doldrums of their 1-3 start. Who would want to pay luxury tax to finish in the lottery?
The big beneficiary of such a move would be Kirilenko, a classic small-ball 4 whose game has atrophied as a wing player the past three seasons. Putting him at the 4 while acquiring a more traditional wing player who could make shots might be the elixir Utah needs to shake its rough start & not to mention shaking off the tax man.
• For the third season in a row, the Celtics have come out like gangbusters. All that offensive explosion stuff I wrote about above must sound like it's from a different league to Celtics fans, who watched their squad demoralize another offense in a 105-74 rout of Philadelphia on Tuesday night. The Sixers entered the game leading the league in offensive efficiency. By the time Boston got done with them, they were a distant 12th. The Sixers needed 96 trips to eke out 74 points on the Celtics' mighty D, making just one of 16 3-pointers.
Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency after five games, but even that understates its dominance. The Celtics are nearly seven points ahead of second-place Dallas in the charts and nearly 18 ahead of the league average, putting them in completely unheard of territory relative to the league norms. Obviously, it's very, very early, and we know from Boston's history that it tends to charge out of the gate at warp speed.
• It's back to the future for the Hawks, who essentially went to a seven-man rotation -- much like they did for much of last season -- in beating the Blazers on the road 97-91. With no foul trouble -- the Hawks had only 15 personals as a team -- rookie Jeff Teague took home a DNP, and Joe Smith and Maurice Evans played only six minutes apiece.
The other similarity? A one-sided second quarter for Atlanta behind the two primary reserves. This time it was Jamal Crawford, rather than Flip Murray, teaming up with Zaza Pachulia to do the damage, but second quarters behind that bench duo were a major staple of the Hawks' 47-win 2008-09 season. So, too, was the short rotation employed by coach Mike Woodson, although last year it was more out of necessity than choice. We'll be monitoring to see whether either trend remains in play during the opening weeks of this
