Post by FLCeltsFan on Oct 6, 2009 10:32:25 GMT -5
Ray Allen #20 SG
2009-10 Projected PER: 16.38
League Average Comparison: +1.38
2008-09 PER: 17.33
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG 3P%
18.2 2.8 .409
Birth Date July 20, 1975
Birth Place Merced, CA
Age 34
Weight 205 lbs.
Height 6-5
Position SG
Experience 13 years
College Connecticut
Drafted 1996: 1st Rnd, 5th by MIN
Salary 2010: $18,776,860
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .439 .916 23.8 5.3 4.6 56.5 16.3 9.7 25.4 7.8 22.19
2003-04 .440 .904 23.9 5.3 5.0 56.6 17.2 10.0 25.6 7.8 21.76
2004-05 .428 .883 24.4 4.5 3.8 55.5 13.5 8.0 26.2 6.9 20.97
2005-06 .454 .903 25.9 4.4 3.8 59.0 13.4 8.8 25.3 6.6 22.28
2006-07 .438 .903 26.2 4.5 4.1 56.4 13.6 9.2 27.3 6.7 21.70
2007-08 .445 .907 19.4 4.1 3.4 58.4 15.6 8.8 20.0 6.1 16.60
2008-09 .480 .952 19.9 3.9 3.0 62.4 14.5 8.9 19.1 5.9 17.34
2009-10 (projected) .454 .934 19.2 3.8 3.0 59.9 14.1 8.9 18.9 5.9 16.38
2008-09 season: Talk about tough luck. Allen shot 95.2 percent from the line, one of the best marks of all time, yet finished second thanks to a record season from Toronto's Jose Calderon.
Allen's tremendous shooting performance continued to the 3-point line (40.9 percent), long 2s (49.7 percent), and even in the immediate basket area (60.2 percent, which dwarfed his numbers from the previous four seasons). His 49.7 percent on 2s outside the immediate basket ranked third in the league, and he launched far more of them than the two players ahead of him (see chart).
2-point shots outside basket area, 2008-09 leaders
Player Team FG FGA Pct.
Jameer Nelson Orl 117 209 .560
Steve Novak LAC 52 103 .505
Ray Allen Bos 161 324 .497
Matt Bonner SA 79 160 .494
Yao Ming Hou 199 411 .484
Min. 100 attempts. Source: NBA.com/hotspots
Overall, his 62.4 true shooting percentage led all perimeter players, which is a tremendous accomplishment considering his heavy role in the offense. It becomes even more impressive in the context of his low turnover rate.
Allen shot well from everywhere but proved particularly devastating on the right side of the floor. He hammered home an astounding 56.1 percent of his 2-point shots from that side, finishing second only to Orlando's Jameer Nelson among players with at least 100 attempts (see Deron Williams comment) and nailed 45.2 percent of his 3-pointers from the right. He lobbed more shots from the left, however, as he tends to attack that way off the dribble.
Allen's 3-point percentage impressed as well, especially considering how often he fired from there. Nearly half his attempts originated from beyond the arc, and in total only Orlando's Rashard Lewis made more triples.
Scouting report: With textbook form and uncanny accuracy, Allen resides among the best shooters in the history of the league. He's deadly in catch-and-shoot situations, particularly from the corners, and fouling him is futile since he rarely misses.
Although his age is creeping up, Allen retains the ability to create shots. He's comfortable shooting off pin-downs after running his man off a screen, but he also fires quickly off the dribble -- especially going to his left. Allen handles the ball like a point guard and can initiate offense and pass better than many players at his position. While he lacks blazing speed, he can get a step on opponents because they have to guard him so closely.
Allen has put much more effort into his defense since joining the Celtics but can hardly be called an elite defender. He's a low-mistake player who doesn't foul much and competes, but he's small for a shooting guard and doesn't display outstanding lateral quickness.
2009-10 outlook: Allen is in the final season of a deal that pays him $17 million and is a good bet to keep his performance near last season's level. He's had knee and ankle problems, but Allen is manic about his conditioning and good shooters tend to have extremely long careers. He's unlikely to maintain the phenomenal TS percentage of last season, simply because nobody does so for more than a season at a time, but if he can average a point every two minutes with a TS percent in the high 50s, the Celtics will be ecstatic.
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Tony Allen #42 SG
2009-10 Projected PER: 11.73
League Average Comparison: -3.27
2008-09 PER: 12.95
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG 3P%
7.8 1.4 .222
Birth Date January 11, 1982
Birth Place Chicago, IL
Age 27
Weight 213 lbs.
Height 6-4
Position SG
Experience 5 years
College Oklahoma State
Drafted 2004: 1st Rnd, 25th by BOS
Salary 2010: $2,500,000
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
Status Alert:
Allen (ankle) participated in Wednesday's practice, the Boston Globe... (+)
Allen (ankle) participated in Wednesday's practice, the Boston Globe reports. (Sep 30)
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2004-05 .475 .737 15.6 7.0 2.0 54.2 10.8 12.9 17.1 10.2 14.74
2005-06 .471 .746 15.1 4.5 2.7 55.4 14.3 14.3 16.9 6.9 12.91
2006-07 .514 .784 18.8 6.2 2.8 59.6 12.5 16.7 20.4 9.2 17.06
2007-08 .434 .762 14.4 4.9 3.3 52.7 16.5 15.8 18.2 7.3 10.81
2008-09 .482 .725 16.2 4.7 3.0 54.1 13.9 16.2 19.7 7.1 12.96
2009-10 (projected) .466 .709 14.4 4.7 3.0 53.5 14.9 16.4 18.0 7.1 11.73
2008-09 outlook: Statistically, Allen's season doesn't seem that awful, but it was hard on the eyes. While he averaged a respectable 16.2 points per 40 minutes with a solid 48.2 percent mark from the field (third-best among shooting guards), look deeper and it gets brutal pretty quick.
For starters, there are the turnovers. Allen gave it away on nearly one possession in six, the worst rate among shooting guards. Most high-turnover players at least compensate with a high rate of assists, but he was a rare exception. His assist ratio reached only 43rd among shooting guards, placing him dead last at his position in pure point rating.
And that strong shooting percentage? Unfortunately, he neutralized it with a paucity of 3s and a shaky stroke from the line, so even though Allen shot well and drew a high rate of fouls, his true shooting percentage settled at the league average for his position.
In sum, he used a lot of possessions and didn't use them all that effectively. It was a similar story on defense, where he offset high rates of blocks and steals (fourth and sixth at his position, respectively) with a tendency to hack anything that moved (seventh-highest foul rate) and take bad gambles.
Scouting report: Allen possesses outstanding quickness and explosiveness, something he's maintained even after a 2007 knee injury. A pure slasher, he seeks to go hard to the basket and either lay it in or draw a foul. He's a good enough athlete to succeed in this manner, hitting 57.8 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area -- an impressive figure for a 6-4 guard.
However, Allen is a very poor shooter. He made only six 3s and nine long 2s the entire season, while slumping to 72.5 percent at the line. Worse yet, he has a very high dribble and often loses control of the ball on his way to the basket, or anywhere else on the court for that matter. The Celtics periodically talk about playing him at the point, which is a comical proposition; most NBA point guards keep the ball below their forehead when they dribble.
Allen's athleticism makes him a tremendous force defensively, but he takes himself out of plays with gambles and frequent fouls. That said, his on-court versus off-court differentials have been huge the past two seasons, and on another team he'd probably carve out a role as a defensive stopper.
2009-10 outlook: Marquis Daniels' arrival will cut into Allen's backcourt minutes, so he'll compete with another great athlete with knee problems, Bill Walker, for playing time behind Paul Pierce. Since two seasons will have passed since his knee injury, Allen is likely to improve and could prove a strong asset if he's less hyper offensively and cuts the turnovers. Few teams have athletes of his caliber coming off the bench, so his ceiling is quite high as a two-way force making energy plays for the second unit.
To fulfill that promise, however, he must exorcise the mistake plays -- few players in the league made more last season. He's 27 and has an expiring contract, so he'll never have more incentive to clean up all the rough edges in his game.
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Marquis Daniels #7 SG
2009-10 Projected PER: 12.04
League Average Comparison: -2.96
2008-09 PER: 12.88
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG 3P%
13.6 2.1 .200
Birth Date January 7, 1981
Birth Place Orlando, FL
Age 28
Weight 200 lbs.
Height 6-6
Pronounced MAR-Keese
Position SG
Experience 6 years
College Auburn
Salary 2010: $1,990,000
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2003-04 .494 .769 18.4 5.6 4.5 53.6 19.2 7.3 19.7 7.6 20.13
2004-05 .437 .737 15.4 6.1 3.6 48.4 16.5 11.1 19.2 8.6 14.65
2005-06 .480 .754 14.4 5.1 3.9 53.5 19.9 11.6 17.5 7.7 15.00
2006-07 .459 .700 16.0 4.1 2.8 50.6 13.3 12.8 19.4 5.9 11.67
2007-08 .430 .698 15.7 5.5 3.5 48.7 15.7 12.9 19.1 7.5 11.65
2008-09 .451 .721 17.2 5.8 2.7 49.1 12.0 9.9 19.6 8.0 12.88
2009-10 (projected) .436 .695 16.2 5.5 2.8 48.4 12.7 10.0 18.8 7.6 12.04
2008-09 season: Daniels carries an amazing capacity for incurring injuries just as he establishes himself in a team's rotation, and it happened to him again last season. He kicked off the campaign as a replacement for an injured Mike Dunleavy Jr. and played extremely well, but he began breaking down in January and played in only 54 games.
It was the fifth time in six pro seasons that he missed at least 20 games, but this time he stemmed the tide of steadily descending numbers from his first five campaigns. Daniels dramatically reduced his turnover rate, offsetting his typical shaky shooting numbers, and his 17.2 points per 40 minutes were the most since his rookie season.
On the down side, Daniels placed only 60th out of 63 shooting guards in true shooting percentage, so his willingness to pull the trigger was something of a mixed blessing. While he cut his turnover rate, it remained extremely high, especially in relation to his low assist ratio -- Daniels' pure point rating ranked just 53rd out of 63 shooting guards.
Scouting report: Daniels isn't a great athlete but has a point guard's handle and is very smooth in traffic. He has a great feel for scoring in the lane, shooting 58.3 percent in the immediate basket area last season. That marked his third straight season in the high 50s, and he's able to score at a high rate despite his wayward jump shot. Daniels converted only 31.3 percent of his long 2s and 19.8 percent of his 3-pointers, which dragged down his shooting percentage. Also, because he rarely draws fouls on his forays to the basket, his TS percent once again dropped under 50.
Defensively, Daniels has become an effective player despite not appearing to play with great intensity. His size helps, and though he's not a great leaper, he has good timing, ranking ninth among shooting guards in blocks per minute. He gained a reputation for floating through games and not competing at this end, but his record since coming to Indiana, in terms of on-court versus off-court performance and individual results, has been rock-solid.
2009-10 outlook: Daniels signed a two-season, $3.9 million deal with Boston for its biannual exception and will be a key backcourt reserve for the 55 games in which he's healthy. Because he can handle the ball and defend shooting guards, he's a perfect partner for Eddie House off the bench, as House has to check point guards but isn't a good enough dribbler to man the position offensively. Daniels won't average anywhere near double figures this season and his bricks from outside are likely to drive Celtics fans nuts, but he'll defend and score in the paint enough to provide a solid 15 minutes off the pine.
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Glen Davis #11 PF
2009-10 Projected PER: 11.07
League Average Comparison: -3.93
2008-09 PER: 10.77
2008-09 STATS
PPG RPG BPG
7 4 0.3
Birth Date January 1, 1986
Birth Place Baton Rouge, LA
Age 23
Weight 289 lbs.
Height 6-9
Position PF
Experience 2 years
College LSU
Salary 2010: $3,000,004
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2007-08 .484 .660 13.3 8.9 1.2 54.5 7.4 17.1 15.6 13.2 11.40
2008-09 .442 .730 13.0 7.4 1.7 50.2 10.3 10.6 15.4 11.2 10.77
2009-10 (projected) .444 .676 12.9 7.6 1.8 50.0 11.2 10.7 15.4 11.5 11.07
2008-09 season: Sometimes the full-season stats don't provide an accurate picture of what really happened, and Davis is a perfect example. He floundered through the first half of the season, including an infamous crying jag on the bench, and it looked like he might play his way right out of the league. He shot in the mid-30s through New Year's Day and played only because the Celtics were paper-thin in the frontcourt.
Then, halfway through the season, something clicked for Davis, and he started nailing midrange jumpers. From that point forward he was very productive, shooting at least 45 percent in each of the final four months and averaging 15.8 points on 49.1 percent shooting as a replacement starter in the playoffs.
Davis attempted dramatically fewer shots in the basket area -- 44.7 percent of his attempts, compared to 76.0 percent a season earlier -- and instead moved outside. He bagged 41.2 percent of his long 2s on the season, but in the second half of the season that number improved dramatically. The other impact of moving his game outside was a substantially lower turnover ratio, as he no longer handled the ball so much in traffic. Surprisingly for a jump shooter, he still finished 16th among power forwards in free-throw rate.
Despite the overall positive season, Davis had two big negative markers. First, he fouled way too much, collecting a personal every 7.1 minutes. Second, his rebound rate remained pedestrian for a power forward: He ranked 50th out of 65 players at his position.
Scouting report: Although he carries 290 pounds of freight, Davis is a bit short and lacks great elevation so he struggles to finish around the basket. He'll draw fouls on his paint forays because he's strong and bulky, but he also gets a lot of shots blocked. He has developed a good 17-foot jumper, though. Despite the fact it's a line-drive shot that is mostly flat-footed, Davis has a quick release and is confident shooting it in pick-and-pop settings.
Davis is much quicker than he looks and plays solid defense. His strength prevents most power forwards from posting him up and he performs admirably defending pick-and-rolls. His biggest problem is a lack of hops, which hurts him challenging shots and going after boards.
2009-10 outlook: Davis signed a two-season, $6 million deal to return to the Celtics as a restricted free agent but likely will play far less than he did at the end of last season. The return of Kevin Garnett and the addition of Rasheed Wallace leave Davis as the fourth big man in Boston's frontcourt rotation. While the Celtics are likely to spread the frontcourt playing time liberally in the regular season, Davis' minutes will plummet to about 15-20 a game. But if he can keep shooting midrange jumpers the way he did at the end of last season, he'll represent one of the league's top frontcourt reserves.
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Kevin Garnett #5 PF
2009-10 Projected PER: 19.97
League Average Comparison: +4.97
2008-09 PER: 21.32
2008-09 STATS
PPG RPG BPG
15.8 8.5 1.2
Birth Date May 19, 1976
Birth Place Mauldin, SC
Age 33
Weight 253 lbs.
Height 6-11
Position PF
Experience 14 years
Drafted 1995: 1st Rnd, 5th by MIN
Salary 2010: $16,417,044
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
Status Alert:
Garnett (knee) practiced all full speed for about three-quarters of... (+)
Garnett (knee) practiced all full speed for about three-quarters of Tuesday's practice, the Boston Globe reports. "He looked great," coach Doc Rivers said. "Actually, for a first practice I thought it was terrific." (Sep 30)
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .502 .751 22.7 13.3 6.0 55.3 20.4 9.4 25.0 18.8 26.46
2003-04 .499 .791 24.6 14.1 5.1 54.7 16.8 8.7 27.1 20.1 29.50
2004-05 .502 .811 23.3 14.2 6.0 56.7 20.4 9.7 25.9 20.3 28.29
2005-06 .526 .810 22.4 13.1 4.2 58.9 16.3 9.5 23.3 19.6 26.88
2006-07 .476 .835 22.8 13.0 4.2 54.6 15.1 9.9 25.2 19.5 24.20
2007-08 .539 .801 23.0 11.3 4.2 58.8 16.1 9.1 23.7 16.7 25.42
2008-09 .531 .841 20.3 10.9 3.3 56.3 14.0 8.7 21.4 16.6 21.32
2009-10 (projected) .515 .774 18.1 10.5 3.2 54.7 14.5 8.7 19.8 15.8 19.97
2008-09 outlook: Garnett's numbers declined late in the 2007-08 season and stayed down through the 2008-09 campaign, even before he messed up his knee in late February and basically ended the Celtics' hopes of repeating. Nonetheless, the knee dwarfs any other story about his season.
Garnett had a "knee strain," we were originally told, but as his absence dragged on, it became increasingly clear the injury was more serious. It turned out he suffered from bone spurs and a strained tendon, with the one making the other extremely painful, and he underwent surgery to remedy the condition after the season. However, with as many miles as his knees have logged carrying a 7-foot frame (even one as slender as Garnett's), the concern that the knees will limit his production and availability is very real.
Pre-injury, Garnett shot a sterling 67.6 percent in the immediate basket area and 44.1 percent on long 2s, showing that he remains one of the best inside-outside threats in the game. He's no longer a threat to draw fouls, however. Garnett earned a piddling 2.3 free throw attempts per game, barely a third of what he achieved two seasons ago and less than half his total from the previous season.
Thus, even though this shooting percentage and shot attempts looked the same on the surface, Garnett lost three points off his scoring average and his true shooting percentage dove. Garnett also lost effectiveness setting up others, but this is relative -- he still ranked fourth among power forwards in pure point rating.
And defensively, he dominated again. Garnett ranked among the top dozen power forwards in both blocks and steals per minute, finished fourth in defensive rebound rate, and racked up one of the lowest foul rates in the league.
Scouting report: Garnett is so unique because he's 7-1 (though listed at 6-11) with the skill set of a much smaller player. He shoots comfortably from 20 feet and can release his shot over just about anybody due to his length. But he can also put it on the floor and finish at the basket -- though he's done this less often lately. He's a good passer, too, and unselfish to a fault. In fact, he often passes up shots late in games, to the chagrin of his fans in Minnesota and Boston.
Defensively, he is without peer. Garnett's length and mobility combine to make him a one-of-a-kind defender who can shut down opposing post players and block access to the rim, but also switch out against small guards or check perimeter 4s. His maniacal intensity at that end only adds to his presence, a spirit he spread to his teammates since his arrival in Boston. It's no surprise that the Celtics gave up 7.3 points per 100 possessions fewer with him on the court.
Garnett's intensity sometimes goes over the line, but not in the way Rasheed Wallace's or Ron Artest's does. Instead, he -- and the Celtics more generally -- has drawn criticism for excessive trash-talking, most notably when Garnett got on all fours and snarled at Portland's Jerryd Bayless late in a blowout win.
2009-10 outlook: Obviously, Garnett's physical condition is much more important than any linear statistical projection I could offer, but in either case one should expect a sharp reduction in his minutes from a season ago. Boston signed Rasheed Wallace partly to have some insurance behind Garnett but also to have a player who could spell him for longer stretches.
Garnett averaged only 32.5 minutes per game even before the injury, but that number could dip to around 30 this season with the presence of Wallace and added caution regarding their star player's wounded limb. The strategy makes strong sense for Boston because he has three seasons and more than $56 million left on his contract -- the Celtics can't afford to have $20 million in dead weight on the payroll two seasons from now.
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J.R. Giddens #4 SG
2009-10 Projected PER: --
League Average Comparison: -15.00
2008-09 PER: 26.10
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG 3P%
0.7 0 .000
Birth Date February 13, 1985
Birth Place Oklahoma City, OK
Age 24
Weight 215 lbs.
Height 6-5
Position SG
Experience 1 years
College New Mexico
Salary 2010: $1,028,880
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2008-09 .667 .000 20.0 15.0 0.0 66.7 --- 25.0 20.3 22.8 26.10
No projected stats available for this player.
2008-09 season: Boston used a first-round pick on Giddens, and I'm still trying to figure out why. He played only eight minutes for the Celtics, so don't read much into those numbers, but his extended run in the D-League wasn't encouraging. In 26 games for Boston's affiliate in Utah, he showed an ability to create shots and finish and added outstanding rebounding numbers for his size. However, he struggled from outside (27.6 percent on 3s) and drew surprisingly few fouls.
Scouting report: A big guard at 6-5, Giddens is a physical player with scoring instincts. However, he struggles as a spot-up shooter and performs poorly at the free-throw line (68.1 percent in the D-League, 58.5 percent in college). He's not a good enough athlete to play this way in the pros and will have to develop a more dependable jumper. Giddens spent forever in college and already is 24, so time's running short. Additionally, he gained a bad reputation in college and must prove he's cleaned up his act.
2009-10 outlook: With Boston adding a D-League affiliate in nearby Portland, Maine, I see a lot of lobster in Giddens' future. He hasn't given any indication that he's ready for minutes with the parent club, and in truth he may never be.
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Eddie House #50 PG
2009-10 Projected PER: 13.55
League Average Comparison: -1.45
2008-09 PER: 15.44
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG SPG
8.5 1.1 0.8
Birth Date May 14, 1978
Birth Place Berkeley, CA
Age 31
Weight 175 lbs.
Height 6-1
Position PG
Experience 9 years
College Arizona State
Salary 2010: $2,862,000
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .387 .861 16.0 3.9 3.4 44.7 14.7 7.8 21.7 5.7 12.84
2003-04 .359 .800 13.8 4.6 5.0 43.6 21.8 9.3 19.3 6.6 12.05
2004-05 .451 .852 17.8 3.7 4.3 52.5 18.9 6.9 18.2 4.3 15.88
2005-06 .422 .805 22.4 3.7 4.2 51.2 14.8 7.6 24.1 5.2 15.30
2006-07 .428 .917 19.8 3.9 2.8 53.6 12.6 5.1 20.8 5.8 15.11
2007-08 .409 .917 15.8 4.5 4.1 53.4 19.6 9.8 18.5 6.7 13.17
2008-09 .445 .792 18.7 4.2 2.5 59.2 12.6 7.5 18.4 6.5 15.44
2009-10 (projected) .417 .814 16.9 4.2 2.8 55.3 14.0 8.1 17.8 6.4 13.55
2008-09 season: One of the league's deadliest snipers, House ripped the cords at 44.4 percent from 3-point range while averaging 18.7 points per 40 minutes. His 59.2 true shooting percentage ranked sixth among point guards, more than offsetting his last-place finish in assist ratio.
He gets his points the hard way, too. House never gets to the line, earning only 0.09 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and rarely goes to the bucket. Only 13.8 percent of his 2-point shot attempts came in the basket area, the lowest proportion of any guard in the league with over 100 field-goal attempts. Only 10.8 percent of his total shots were inside -- again, the least among guards. Meanwhile, more than three-fifths of his shots were 3-pointers. Among players with a usage rate greater than 15, only three players had a higher proportion.
But he's among the best shooters in basketball and his lightning-quick release allows him to fire in tight spaces. In addition to the 3s, House stuck an impressive 45.9 percent of his long 2s.
Scouting report: A small, light guard listed optimistically at 6-1, 175, House's size makes him a defensive liability against bigger players, so his matchups need to be monitored carefully. He's an energetic defender against other small guards and gives a decent effort, but the physical limitations are clear.
Offensively, he's a poor dribbler and struggles mightily against ball pressure. However, he's very quick and effectively moves into open spots for catch-and-shoot jumpers. Additionally, he's as good shooting off one dribble as he is off the catch, so many times he shot-fakes and frees himself with a bounce for a jumper.
House rarely drives into the paint and when he catches the ball, he's looking to score rather than to pass. As a result, his assist and turnover rates both tend to be extremely low. He does rebound surprisingly well for his size, ranking 21st among point guards in rebound rate last season.
2009-10 outlook: House opted to pick up the final season of his contract at $2.3 million, so he will be the primary backup to Rajon Rondo while occasionally swinging to the 2 when Boston goes small. Look for him to pair with Marquis Daniels off the bench, with Daniels handling the ball while House spots up on the wing and the two trade assignments on defense.
House is unlikely to keep his TS percentage at the lofty heights of a season ago, especially without any layups or free throws to supplement the jump shots. But as long as his 3-point percentage stays around 40, he'll be a valuable contributor with his scoring and floor-spacing ability off the bench.
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Kendrick Perkins #43 C
2009-10 Projected PER: 12.38
League Average Comparison: -2.62
2008-09 PER: 13.29
2008-09 STATS
PPG RPG BPG
8.5 8.1 2
Birth Date November 10, 1984
Birth Place Nederland, TX
Age 24
Weight 280 lbs.
Height 6-10
Position C
Experience 6 years
Drafted 2003: 1st Rnd, 27th by MEM
Salary 2010: $4,750,000
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
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Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2003-04 .533 .667 25.1 16.0 3.4 58.0 11.1 18.5 27.6 22.9 22.82
2004-05 .471 .638 10.9 12.8 1.5 51.6 10.1 20.6 13.9 18.7 11.21
2005-06 .515 .615 10.6 12.1 2.1 54.8 13.8 21.4 13.3 18.4 13.18
2006-07 .491 .600 8.2 9.4 2.4 51.8 18.1 21.7 11.6 14.1 9.49
2007-08 .615 .623 11.3 9.9 1.8 63.2 13.2 19.6 12.4 14.8 13.38
2008-09 .577 .600 11.5 11.0 1.7 59.1 11.9 20.4 13.4 16.7 13.29
2009-10 (projected) .546 .607 11.1 10.7 1.7 56.9 12.2 19.4 13.2 16.1 12.38
2008-09 season: Here's a great decision that nobody talks about: Boston signed Perkins to a four-season, $16 million extension in 2006. It didn't look so sharp the first season, when the Celtics won 24 games, but since then he's been the interior rock for one of the best defensive teams in the league. Perkins demonstrated his defensive value in the playoffs when he stymied Orlando's Dwight Howard in the second round, and Perkins' offensive game has progressed nicely too.
Worst Turnover Rate, 2008-09
Player Team TO Rate
Kendrick Perkins Bos 20.4
Hilton Armstrong NO 20.1
Joel Anthony Mia 19.9
Reggie Evans Phi 19.7
Samuel Dalembert Phi 18.8
Min. 500 minutes
Even Perkins' one weakness was something of a strength. He accumulated the worst turnover rate in basketball last season, giving it away on 20.4 percent of the possessions he used. Usually the league leader in this category is a genuinely terrible offensive player, but he was a rare exception.
Nearly a third of Perkins' turnovers were offensive fouls -- he was second only to Howard in that category with 51 -- and of those, nearly all of them were illegal screens. The Celtics can live with that because the accounting doesn't show the other side of the coin: Perkins sets bone-rattling screens off the ball that freed Ray Allen, Eddie House and Paul Pierce for countless open looks last season.
Perkins was productive in other ways too. He ranked 13th among centers in blocks per minute and quietly became a fairly useful scorer, shooting 57.7 percent from the field. Perkins was less reluctant to shoot 15-footers and fared OK, making 38.4 percent of his long 2s, while knocking down 55.8 percent of his inside shots.
Scouting report: Perkins stands only 6-10 but has a wide base and is tough and physical, allowing him to push opposing centers away from the rim. He's reasonably mobile too, so he can handle defending pick-and-rolls or rotating from the weak side if need be. Best of all, he has a stopper's mentality and has no compunction about executing all the dirty work inside.
Offensively, he has a mechanical but somewhat effective post game, usually dribbling a few times from the left block before launching a line-drive turnaround or a jump hook. He's neither a skilled dribbler nor an effective driver and he's a below-the-rim finisher, but he can make jump hooks in the paint and owns good hands. Perkins habitually puts the ball on the floor after the catch, however, allowing defenders to get back into the play. He showed increased confidence on 15-footers last season, but considering he shoots in the low 60s from the line, this may not be a good thing.
Perkins periodically loses his head, usually by being unnecessarily physical, and annually ranks among the league leaders in technical fouls and flagrants.
2009-10 outlook: Perkins enters this season cemented into the starting lineup, and with his ability to defend big centers like Howard, Shaquille O'Neal and Andrew Bynum, Perkins is going to be a crucial part of any push by the Celtics to regain their title. New addition Rasheed Wallace may make a slight incursion into Perkins' regular-season minutes, especially if Kevin Garnett is healthy, but Perkins may mitigate it with increased per-minute productivity. At 24 his game is still on the upswing, and it wouldn't surprise anyone if his scoring numbers took another tick upward this season.
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Paul Pierce #34 SF
2009-10 Projected PER: 16.91
League Average Comparison: +1.91
2008-09 PER: 17.74
2008-09 STATS
PPG RPG APG
20.5 5.6 3.6
Birth Date October 13, 1977
Birth Place Oakland, CA
Age 31
Weight 235 lbs.
Height 6-7
Position SF
Experience 11 years
College Kansas
Drafted 1998: 1st Rnd, 10th by BOS
Salary 2010: $19,795,712
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
ProfileStatsSplitsGame LogNewsHollinger InsiderPhotos
Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2002-03 .416 .802 26.5 7.5 4.5 53.2 13.6 11.2 30.1 10.6 23.49
2003-04 .402 .819 23.7 6.7 5.3 51.7 16.5 12.2 27.6 9.6 19.37
2004-05 .455 .822 23.9 7.3 4.7 58.3 16.6 11.0 24.6 10.6 21.83
2005-06 .471 .772 27.4 6.9 4.9 58.2 15.2 11.1 28.2 10.5 23.71
2006-07 .439 .796 27.0 6.4 4.5 57.1 14.1 11.1 28.5 9.5 21.73
2007-08 .464 .843 21.9 5.7 5.1 59.9 19.2 11.7 23.4 8.5 19.85
2008-09 .457 .830 21.9 6.0 3.9 58.2 15.1 11.7 23.4 9.2 17.74
2009-10 (projected) .443 .801 20.3 5.2 3.7 57.0 14.9 10.7 21.4 8.0 16.91
2008-09 season: Finally playing for a winner, Pierce has earned more plaudits over the past two seasons than at any other time in his career -- earning second team All-NBA honors last season for the first time ever. Yet the numbers tell a different story. His offensive game is in steady, inexorable decline, yet no one seems to have noticed. Last season was the third straight in which he suffered a two-point PER decline. Compared to three seasons ago, he's lost 5.5 points, one rebound and one assist per 40 minutes -- without any corresponding increase in efficiency.
Last season featured an alarming increase in the proportion of his shots that weren't at the basket: 43 percent of his shots were 2s not at the basket, compared to 33 percent a season earlier. He continues to shoot these shots phenomenally well, converting 44.4 percent of them (the league average is 39.9), but the reduced attempts at the rim aren't doing his two-point shooting percentage any favors.
For now, improved shooting prevents a steeper decline. Pierce still gets to the line often -- he finished fifth among small forwards in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt -- and the past two seasons were the two best of his career from the stripe. He's also hit 39 percent of his 3s over the past three seasons, the best sustained stretch of his career.
As a result, he continues to be a very effective shot creator -- he was eighth at his position in usage rate and sixth in true shooting percentage. He's not nearly as devastating as he was three seasons ago, however, and his rebound and assist totals have joined the ranks of the ordinary. Overall, his PER slipped to the lowest of his career by far, so it was a little odd to see him make second-team All-NBA for the first time.
Scouting report: The one area where Pierce has genuinely improved over the past two seasons is his defense. Always a rugged defender with good size and anticipation, Pierce has stepped up to the challenge of becoming Boston's perimeter stopper the past two seasons and performed admirably for one of the league's best defensive teams. He willingly gives up his body and is very difficult to score against on post-ups. Quicker players can beat him in isolations, but Boston's help defense is so strong that it isn't a major problem.
Offensively, Pierce likes to isolate at the top of the key and then dribble right for a pull-up jumper. His pull-up is among the best in the league, but he's also very effective at shot-faking or creating contact and getting to the line. Few players are better spinning off contact, and when he drives toward the rim, he'll usually throw in a spin to one side or the other.
2009-10 outlook: Although Pierce's numbers have quietly slid, I suspect they may level off this season. He played far better after the All-Star break than he had before, which doesn't smack of a guy who's worn out physically. While his attempts at the basket are in decline, he should be able to knock down midrange jumpers until he needs a walker. In fact, the defensive end is where Pierce may exhibit signs of slippage. Pierce delivered All-Defense caliber performance the past two seasons, but as age slowly robs him of athleticism, that may be difficult to maintain.
One fact to remember toward the end of the season is that Pierce has an early termination option to become a free agent. Given the direction his numbers have headed the past two seasons, he might be wise to take it. He'll be 32 on opening day and has taken a lot of pounding from 10 seasons of going hard to the rim, so this seems like his last chance to cash in with a big payday.
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Rajon Rondo #9 PG
2009-10 Projected PER: 19.21
League Average Comparison: +4.21
2008-09 PER: 18.90
2008-09 STATS
PPG APG SPG
11.9 8.2 1.9
Birth Date February 22, 1986
Birth Place Louisville, KY
Age 23
Weight 171 lbs.
Height 6-1
Position PG
Experience 3 years
College Kentucky
Salary 2010: $2,094,923
Next Game:
Celtics at Rockets
Wednesday 10/7, 8:30 PM ET
ProfileStatsSplitsGame LogNewsHollinger InsiderPhotos
Hollinger Player Profile | Stats Key
SEASON FG% FT% P/40 R/40 A/40 TS% Ast TO Usg Reb PER
2006-07 .418 .647 10.9 6.4 6.5 47.2 30.8 14.2 16.7 9.6 13.16
2007-08 .492 .611 14.1 5.6 6.8 51.5 29.5 11.1 18.8 8.3 15.74
2008-09 .505 .642 14.4 6.3 10.0 54.3 37.8 12.0 20.1 9.6 18.90
2009-10 (projected) .490 .655 15.6 5.2 8.8 53.2 32.2 10.6 19.7 7.8 19.21
2008-09 outlook: The Fifth Beatle of Boston's championship run, Rondo got more attention for his play in last season's playoffs after a series of epic battles against Chicago's Derrick Rose in the first round. Rondo's postseason stats were phenomenal -- 16.9 points, 9.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, 2.5 steals -- and while Rose wasn't exactly an elite defender last season, Rondo went against the league's best defense in Round 2 and his numbers weren't that much worse.
However, those playoff numbers came with an abysmal 46.6 true shooting percentage, and that gets to Rondo's fatal weakness -- he can't shoot … at all. He made 15 3-pointers the entire season and shot 64.2 percent from the line, numbers which would kill the career of any guard who didn't possess his freakish combination of quickness, length and athleticism.
However, Rondo made 56.9 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area, a spectacular percentage for a small guard, so his regular-season TS percentage was decent. He excels at setting up shots for others -- he ranked fifth in the NBA in assist ratio and sixth in pure point rating -- and few small guards rebound better. Rondo's 9.3 rebound rate ranked second among point guards and placed him ahead of Rashard Lewis, Thaddeus Young and a majority of the league's small forwards. All told, Rondo ranked ninth among point guards in PER despite his inability to shoot from distance.
A weird trend lurks in his shot data, however. Rondo shot 9-of-13 on 3-pointers from the left wing and just 6-for-35 from other spots. It's probably a fluke, but it's possible he found a spot where he's comfortable taking and making long-range shots.
Scouting report: In addition to his other assets, Rondo is a phenomenal defensive player. Though he gambles a bit much, his long arms deflect a lot of balls and he ranked fourth among point guards in steals per minute. Additionally, his length makes him a factor contesting shots, and not only against opposing point guards -- he bothers attempts by bigger players because his arms are so long.
Rondo tries to tap the ball from behind opponents too often, even though he's successful with this low-percentage gambit more often than most. But his ball pressure is outstanding and he's great at denying the ball to opponents in half-court situations.
Offensively, his signature move is the fake behind-the-back pass. He loves to drive the lane to his right, curl the ball around his back, and then either go up for a right-handed shot or dish it with his right. He's more effective driving in this direction, but he's so astoundingly quick that he can get to the basket from either side.
Rondo has some of the longest arms you'll ever see on a 6-1 person, and for that reason he plays much bigger than his listed height. It's most notable on the boards, but he also can play farther off opposing point guards than most and still be in position to challenge a shot.
2009-10 outlook: Despite his play, the Celtics were discussing trading Rondo after the season because he'd become such a handful in the locker room. It's too early to know whether these are just growing pains or the sign of a more serious problem, but based on his age (23) and performance to date, Rondo appears to have a very bright future.
As his two-way play gets more recognition for one of the league' s premier teams, he has a good shot at receiving his first All-Star berth this season -- an honor he should have been accorded last season instead of teammate Ray Allen. Rondo won't compile nightly triple-doubles like he did in the playoffs, but averages of 13 points, nine assists and five boards seem within reach.
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