Post by FLCeltsFan on Sept 28, 2009 14:30:43 GMT -5
2009-10 Forecast: Boston Celtics
The questions for the 2008 champs to answer start with KG's knee but don't end there
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Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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Kevin GarnettBrian Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe Boston Celtics will likely go as far as Kevin Garnett can take them on his troublesome knees.
GO TO: 2008-09 Recap Offseason Moves Biggest Strength/Weakness Outlook
2008-09 Recap
In some ways, Celtics fans probably have more appreciation for the championship they won in 2008, because 2009 demonstrated just how many things have to go right for a team -- even a very good team -- to win a title in a 30-team league.
The Celtics kicked off the year as if they'd put their 2008 championship squad to shame, blasting out of the gate at 27-2 to post the best record through 29 games in league history. From there, however, a series of small misfortunes eventually drove them to a second-round exit in the postseason.
For starters, the 27-2 start probably overstated Boston's strength somewhat. Even at that time the Cavaliers had a better scoring margin, with the Celtics' 7-0 record in games decided by five points or fewer giving them the momentary advantage in the standings.
But the Celtics also played much worse after that torrid 27-2 start. Boston went just 24-16 in the ensuing 40 games, and though they hung on to the East's second seed by riding Paul Pierce to a strong final month, they were a greatly diminished team from the one that dominated the first third of the season.
While the midyear lull had them concerned, things really started going badly for Boston when Kevin Garnett hurt his knee in a February game in Utah. Garnett hopped off with what was originally thought to be a minor tweak; nobody realized it would become essentially a season-ending injury that would require serious surgery.
HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 62-20 (Pythagorean W-L: 64-18)
Offensive Efficiency: 108.1 (T-5th)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (T-2nd)
Pace Factor: 92.7 (T-18th)
Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (21.32)
Boston's dip into the barrel for replacements also had a negative impact. A year earlier, the Celtics received a major boost by plucking veterans P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell at midseason, with Brown in particular contributing heavily in the playoffs.
This time around, the opposite happened. First the Celtics jumped the gun by leaping to grab Mikki Moore instead of waiting to see if Joe Smith would become available. Moore had been awful in Sacramento, so there was little urgency to pick him up. It wasn't a big shock that he also performed horrendously as a Celtic, and by the end of the playoffs, Boston had sidelined him and given his minutes to little-used Brian Scalabrine.
In the backcourt, the Celtics encountered a similar problem. An injury to Tony Allen took him out of the mix, and in his place Boston signed Stephon Marbury. Adding Marbury to the locker room required a tremendous faith in the Celtics' team chemistry, and on that front it worked -- Marbury wasn't a problem or distraction in his time with Boston. The unexpected problem was that he couldn't play, shooting 34.2 percent in his 23 games as a Celtic while routinely declining to take wide-open jumpers.
With the bench help wanting, the strain on the Celtics' starters became obvious in the postseason. Boston struggled to dismiss a 41-win Chicago team and then ran out of gas on its home court in Game 7 against Orlando.
In spite of that, and even without Garnett, Boston's defensive intensity was something to behold. After leading the league in defensive efficiency a year earlier, the Celtics were a close second this time around, with center Kendrick Perkins in particular stepping up his game in Garnett's absence.
Field-goal percentage defense leaders, 2008-09
Team Opp. 2-pt FG% Opp. 3-pt FG% Opp FG%
Boston 45.4 34.9 43.1
Cleveland 45.9 33.3 43.1
Orlando 45.4 34.2 43.3
Denver 46.4 36.6 44.0
Houston 46.5 35.7 44.4
The Celtics led the NBA in opponent field goal percentage at 43.1 percent and finished a close second in 2-point field goal defense as well (45.4 percent). Plus, Boston magnified the impact of all those bricks they forced by ranking third in defensive rebounding rate at 75.6 percent. The fact Boston didn't lead the league in overall efficiency owes largely to its propensity for fouling -- Celtics' opponents averaged .329 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranking Boston's D 24th among the league's 30 teams.
3-point shooting leaders, 2008-09
Team 3-Point Pct.
Boston 39.7
Cleveland 39.3
San Antonio 38.6
Portland 38.3
Phoenix 38.3
Offensively, the combination of Pierce, Ray Allen and Eddie House made Boston the best outside shooting team in the league. Boston led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 39.7 percent, ranked second in 2-point shooting at 51 percent, and landed second in true shooting percentage at 57.1 percent.
So how the heck did they finish only sixth in offensive efficiency? The answer was that Boston shot less often than any other team in the league (see chart). For a jump-shooting team, the Celtics amassed a shockingly high turnover rate, giving the ball away on 16.7 percent of their possessions; only the Bobcats coughed it up more frequently.
Fewest shots per possession, 2008-09
Team Shots/poss.
Boston 94.63
Memphis 94.69
Sacramento 94.70
Charlotte 94.80
Phoenix 95.19
As a result, the Celtics took fewer shots per possession than any team in the league, where "shots" are defined to include trips to the free throw line. If you're looking for causes, Boston had a turnover-prone point guard in Rajon Rondo (who had a breakout year otherwise), piled up offensive fouls setting screens off the ball for Ray Allen and House, and didn't accumulate a particularly high offensive rebound rate.
While the Celtics can lament the late injuries to Garnett, Tony Allen and Leon Powe -- subtractions that all but ended their title defense before the playoffs even began -- they were one of the league's healthiest teams for most of the regular season. Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo and Perkins missed only two games between them, and reserves Powe, House and Glen Davis stayed healthy the entire regular season, as well.
Celtics
Offseason Moves
Garnett's knee surgery was complicated and the extent to which he'll recover isn't totally certain, which is why the Celtics doubled down on insurance for his position in the offseason. Otherwise, Boston must still settle whether to grant contract extensions for Rondo and Ray Allen. The Celtics reportedly shopped Rondo early in the summer, creating some tension between the team and its best young player, while an extension for Ray Allen would eliminate the cap flexibility offered by his $17 million expiring contract.
Money issues also could come into play if the team disappoints. With the salaries of just three players (Garnett, Ray Allen and Pierce) taking up nearly the entire cap, the Celtics will likely owe about $15 million in luxury tax this season. That's all well and good as long as they keep winning, but if they don't, it could produce some interesting discussions about their future.
Signed Rasheed Wallace to a three-year, $18 million deal. Boston moved aggressively to import another long, mobile defender it can use interchangeably with Garnett by offering Wallace the team's entire midlevel exception. Wallace brings a few negatives to the table -- he's a notorious hothead and looked out of shape last season, plus he's 35 and has pretty much abandoned the low post as a source of offense.
Nonetheless, he's a selfless player who should mesh well in the Celtics' locker room. Plus, his ability to play both frontcourt positions gives Boston lineup flexibility with or without Garnett. It's possible he'll have greater motivation than he did on a jaded Pistons team a year ago, and if so that might translate into a bounce-back season.
That said, three years at this price is a fairly large risk at Wallace's age, even allowing for the fact players of his size and shooting ability tend to age well. He'll be 38 by the time it's done and make nearly $7 million, making him a potential cap-killer right when Boston likely needs to start rebuilding.
Re-signed Glen Davis to a two-year, $6 million deal. Davis's regular-season numbers from last season are misleading -- he improved dramatically in the second half of the season and came up huge as Garnett's replacement in the playoffs. As such, keeping him as a restricted free agent gives the Celtics a great fallback position in the frontcourt, particularly if he can keep refining his midrange jumper.
Waived Gabe Pruitt, drafted Lester Hudson. Boston took Hudson with the third-to-last pick in the draft and it's not clear if he'll even make the team. If he does, he'll spend most of the year with the Celtics' D-League affiliate in Portland, Maine.
Let Leon Powe leave, signed Shelden Williams to a one-year deal for the minimum. Powe was a major contributor but blew out his knee in the first round of the playoffs, and Boston's frontcourt needs were too acute to wait a year for him to recover. Instead the Celtics nabbed Williams, a limited banger but one who will rebound and defend. For a fifth big man on a minimum salary, you could do quite a bit worse.
Signed Marquis Daniels to a one-year deal for $1.99 million. Signing Daniels with the biannual exception was Boston's only remaining card for improving the backcourt after the Celtics used their entire midlevel exception on Wallace. Daniels is a good fit for this team because he can play point guard offensively but can defend shooting guards, which allows House to play off the ball and search out jump shots when the second unit is on the court. He'll likely take over most of the minutes Tony Allen played a year ago, as the latter had a very disappointing campaign even before his injury.
Biggest Strength: Defense
Even without Garnett, this is what carried the Celtics a year ago, and it will again if they're going to get back into the title hunt. Under Doc Rivers, Boston has shown a unique ability to assimilate players without great defensive reputations and get them to play quality defense -- most notably Ray Allen, but also Davis, House and even Marbury.
This year they shouldn't have to do as much cajoling, as both Wallace and Daniels arrive with solid defensive reputations. Wallace in particular makes for an interesting arrangement in the frontcourt, as he could team with Garnett at times to give the Celtics a pair of mobile, aggressive 7-footers who can switch pick-and-rolls and smother drivers from the weak side.
Perkins and Davis, meanwhile, provide the muscle up front. Perkins showed his elite post defense in the second round against Orlando when he neutralized the Magic's Dwight Howard, while Davis' short stature can prove to his advantage when he gets underneath opposing post players and forklifts them out of prime real estate.
The backcourt should remain a strength on defense, too. Rondo is the league's best defender at his position, Pierce is vastly underrated as a defensive stopper and if Tony Allen can eliminate his offensive mistakes, his quickness and athleticism make him a tremendously disruptive force on D.
Biggest Weakness: Age
News flash: The Celtics are old, and the age problems are most acute with their best players. Garnett is 33 and has 1,055 games of mileage on his odometer, which would be a concern even if he weren't hurt a year ago. Entering training camp, it's not clear how well or how often he'll be able to play this year following a tricky knee operation.
Pierce turns 32 in preseason, and while he played very well at the end of the regular season, his numbers as a whole dipped sharply for the second straight season. Ray Allen is 34, and while he keeps himself in exquisite shape and doesn't expend a lot of energy shooting jump shots, he isn't immune to the ravages of aging, either.
Boston made itself older in the offseason with the addition of 35-year-old Wallace, while in the backcourt Daniels (28) and House (31) aren't spring chickens, either. The Celtics do have some quality young players with Rondo, Perkins and Davis, but they may need to show quite a bit of improvement to offset the age-related decline around them.
Outlook
Plotting expectations for the Celtics this year depends first on what one expects from Garnett. If he's fully healthy and can resume playing with his usual ferocity, then it's pretty easy to project Boston returning to its standing among the East's elite and rivaling Orlando and Cleveland for the conference championship. In that scenario, the addition of Wallace is pure gravy and the age concerns are softened by what appears to be superior depth.
But if Garnett comes back in any way diminished, the whole picture changes. Boston has some insurance in the form of Wallace and Davis, but that's to cover themselves against short-term absences, not to replace the production of one of the all-time great power forwards. Throw in the concerns about the other two primary scorers also getting up in years, and one would expect them to slide in the standings considerably.
Even if Garnett doesn't play a single game, Boston will be a playoff team and likely finish no worse than third given the lack of credible contenders in the East. But the Celtics didn't bring their three stars together and pay luxury tax through the nose so they could lose in the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, if Garnett's knee doesn't bounce back at full strength, that appears to be where they're headed.
Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
The questions for the 2008 champs to answer start with KG's knee but don't end there
Comment Email Print Share
Insider
Hollinger By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
Kevin GarnettBrian Babineau/NBAE/Getty ImagesThe Boston Celtics will likely go as far as Kevin Garnett can take them on his troublesome knees.
GO TO: 2008-09 Recap Offseason Moves Biggest Strength/Weakness Outlook
2008-09 Recap
In some ways, Celtics fans probably have more appreciation for the championship they won in 2008, because 2009 demonstrated just how many things have to go right for a team -- even a very good team -- to win a title in a 30-team league.
The Celtics kicked off the year as if they'd put their 2008 championship squad to shame, blasting out of the gate at 27-2 to post the best record through 29 games in league history. From there, however, a series of small misfortunes eventually drove them to a second-round exit in the postseason.
For starters, the 27-2 start probably overstated Boston's strength somewhat. Even at that time the Cavaliers had a better scoring margin, with the Celtics' 7-0 record in games decided by five points or fewer giving them the momentary advantage in the standings.
But the Celtics also played much worse after that torrid 27-2 start. Boston went just 24-16 in the ensuing 40 games, and though they hung on to the East's second seed by riding Paul Pierce to a strong final month, they were a greatly diminished team from the one that dominated the first third of the season.
While the midyear lull had them concerned, things really started going badly for Boston when Kevin Garnett hurt his knee in a February game in Utah. Garnett hopped off with what was originally thought to be a minor tweak; nobody realized it would become essentially a season-ending injury that would require serious surgery.
HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 62-20 (Pythagorean W-L: 64-18)
Offensive Efficiency: 108.1 (T-5th)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (T-2nd)
Pace Factor: 92.7 (T-18th)
Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (21.32)
Boston's dip into the barrel for replacements also had a negative impact. A year earlier, the Celtics received a major boost by plucking veterans P.J. Brown and Sam Cassell at midseason, with Brown in particular contributing heavily in the playoffs.
This time around, the opposite happened. First the Celtics jumped the gun by leaping to grab Mikki Moore instead of waiting to see if Joe Smith would become available. Moore had been awful in Sacramento, so there was little urgency to pick him up. It wasn't a big shock that he also performed horrendously as a Celtic, and by the end of the playoffs, Boston had sidelined him and given his minutes to little-used Brian Scalabrine.
In the backcourt, the Celtics encountered a similar problem. An injury to Tony Allen took him out of the mix, and in his place Boston signed Stephon Marbury. Adding Marbury to the locker room required a tremendous faith in the Celtics' team chemistry, and on that front it worked -- Marbury wasn't a problem or distraction in his time with Boston. The unexpected problem was that he couldn't play, shooting 34.2 percent in his 23 games as a Celtic while routinely declining to take wide-open jumpers.
With the bench help wanting, the strain on the Celtics' starters became obvious in the postseason. Boston struggled to dismiss a 41-win Chicago team and then ran out of gas on its home court in Game 7 against Orlando.
In spite of that, and even without Garnett, Boston's defensive intensity was something to behold. After leading the league in defensive efficiency a year earlier, the Celtics were a close second this time around, with center Kendrick Perkins in particular stepping up his game in Garnett's absence.
Field-goal percentage defense leaders, 2008-09
Team Opp. 2-pt FG% Opp. 3-pt FG% Opp FG%
Boston 45.4 34.9 43.1
Cleveland 45.9 33.3 43.1
Orlando 45.4 34.2 43.3
Denver 46.4 36.6 44.0
Houston 46.5 35.7 44.4
The Celtics led the NBA in opponent field goal percentage at 43.1 percent and finished a close second in 2-point field goal defense as well (45.4 percent). Plus, Boston magnified the impact of all those bricks they forced by ranking third in defensive rebounding rate at 75.6 percent. The fact Boston didn't lead the league in overall efficiency owes largely to its propensity for fouling -- Celtics' opponents averaged .329 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, ranking Boston's D 24th among the league's 30 teams.
3-point shooting leaders, 2008-09
Team 3-Point Pct.
Boston 39.7
Cleveland 39.3
San Antonio 38.6
Portland 38.3
Phoenix 38.3
Offensively, the combination of Pierce, Ray Allen and Eddie House made Boston the best outside shooting team in the league. Boston led the NBA in 3-point shooting at 39.7 percent, ranked second in 2-point shooting at 51 percent, and landed second in true shooting percentage at 57.1 percent.
So how the heck did they finish only sixth in offensive efficiency? The answer was that Boston shot less often than any other team in the league (see chart). For a jump-shooting team, the Celtics amassed a shockingly high turnover rate, giving the ball away on 16.7 percent of their possessions; only the Bobcats coughed it up more frequently.
Fewest shots per possession, 2008-09
Team Shots/poss.
Boston 94.63
Memphis 94.69
Sacramento 94.70
Charlotte 94.80
Phoenix 95.19
As a result, the Celtics took fewer shots per possession than any team in the league, where "shots" are defined to include trips to the free throw line. If you're looking for causes, Boston had a turnover-prone point guard in Rajon Rondo (who had a breakout year otherwise), piled up offensive fouls setting screens off the ball for Ray Allen and House, and didn't accumulate a particularly high offensive rebound rate.
While the Celtics can lament the late injuries to Garnett, Tony Allen and Leon Powe -- subtractions that all but ended their title defense before the playoffs even began -- they were one of the league's healthiest teams for most of the regular season. Pierce, Ray Allen, Rondo and Perkins missed only two games between them, and reserves Powe, House and Glen Davis stayed healthy the entire regular season, as well.
Celtics
Offseason Moves
Garnett's knee surgery was complicated and the extent to which he'll recover isn't totally certain, which is why the Celtics doubled down on insurance for his position in the offseason. Otherwise, Boston must still settle whether to grant contract extensions for Rondo and Ray Allen. The Celtics reportedly shopped Rondo early in the summer, creating some tension between the team and its best young player, while an extension for Ray Allen would eliminate the cap flexibility offered by his $17 million expiring contract.
Money issues also could come into play if the team disappoints. With the salaries of just three players (Garnett, Ray Allen and Pierce) taking up nearly the entire cap, the Celtics will likely owe about $15 million in luxury tax this season. That's all well and good as long as they keep winning, but if they don't, it could produce some interesting discussions about their future.
Signed Rasheed Wallace to a three-year, $18 million deal. Boston moved aggressively to import another long, mobile defender it can use interchangeably with Garnett by offering Wallace the team's entire midlevel exception. Wallace brings a few negatives to the table -- he's a notorious hothead and looked out of shape last season, plus he's 35 and has pretty much abandoned the low post as a source of offense.
Nonetheless, he's a selfless player who should mesh well in the Celtics' locker room. Plus, his ability to play both frontcourt positions gives Boston lineup flexibility with or without Garnett. It's possible he'll have greater motivation than he did on a jaded Pistons team a year ago, and if so that might translate into a bounce-back season.
That said, three years at this price is a fairly large risk at Wallace's age, even allowing for the fact players of his size and shooting ability tend to age well. He'll be 38 by the time it's done and make nearly $7 million, making him a potential cap-killer right when Boston likely needs to start rebuilding.
Re-signed Glen Davis to a two-year, $6 million deal. Davis's regular-season numbers from last season are misleading -- he improved dramatically in the second half of the season and came up huge as Garnett's replacement in the playoffs. As such, keeping him as a restricted free agent gives the Celtics a great fallback position in the frontcourt, particularly if he can keep refining his midrange jumper.
Waived Gabe Pruitt, drafted Lester Hudson. Boston took Hudson with the third-to-last pick in the draft and it's not clear if he'll even make the team. If he does, he'll spend most of the year with the Celtics' D-League affiliate in Portland, Maine.
Let Leon Powe leave, signed Shelden Williams to a one-year deal for the minimum. Powe was a major contributor but blew out his knee in the first round of the playoffs, and Boston's frontcourt needs were too acute to wait a year for him to recover. Instead the Celtics nabbed Williams, a limited banger but one who will rebound and defend. For a fifth big man on a minimum salary, you could do quite a bit worse.
Signed Marquis Daniels to a one-year deal for $1.99 million. Signing Daniels with the biannual exception was Boston's only remaining card for improving the backcourt after the Celtics used their entire midlevel exception on Wallace. Daniels is a good fit for this team because he can play point guard offensively but can defend shooting guards, which allows House to play off the ball and search out jump shots when the second unit is on the court. He'll likely take over most of the minutes Tony Allen played a year ago, as the latter had a very disappointing campaign even before his injury.
Biggest Strength: Defense
Even without Garnett, this is what carried the Celtics a year ago, and it will again if they're going to get back into the title hunt. Under Doc Rivers, Boston has shown a unique ability to assimilate players without great defensive reputations and get them to play quality defense -- most notably Ray Allen, but also Davis, House and even Marbury.
This year they shouldn't have to do as much cajoling, as both Wallace and Daniels arrive with solid defensive reputations. Wallace in particular makes for an interesting arrangement in the frontcourt, as he could team with Garnett at times to give the Celtics a pair of mobile, aggressive 7-footers who can switch pick-and-rolls and smother drivers from the weak side.
Perkins and Davis, meanwhile, provide the muscle up front. Perkins showed his elite post defense in the second round against Orlando when he neutralized the Magic's Dwight Howard, while Davis' short stature can prove to his advantage when he gets underneath opposing post players and forklifts them out of prime real estate.
The backcourt should remain a strength on defense, too. Rondo is the league's best defender at his position, Pierce is vastly underrated as a defensive stopper and if Tony Allen can eliminate his offensive mistakes, his quickness and athleticism make him a tremendously disruptive force on D.
Biggest Weakness: Age
News flash: The Celtics are old, and the age problems are most acute with their best players. Garnett is 33 and has 1,055 games of mileage on his odometer, which would be a concern even if he weren't hurt a year ago. Entering training camp, it's not clear how well or how often he'll be able to play this year following a tricky knee operation.
Pierce turns 32 in preseason, and while he played very well at the end of the regular season, his numbers as a whole dipped sharply for the second straight season. Ray Allen is 34, and while he keeps himself in exquisite shape and doesn't expend a lot of energy shooting jump shots, he isn't immune to the ravages of aging, either.
Boston made itself older in the offseason with the addition of 35-year-old Wallace, while in the backcourt Daniels (28) and House (31) aren't spring chickens, either. The Celtics do have some quality young players with Rondo, Perkins and Davis, but they may need to show quite a bit of improvement to offset the age-related decline around them.
Outlook
Plotting expectations for the Celtics this year depends first on what one expects from Garnett. If he's fully healthy and can resume playing with his usual ferocity, then it's pretty easy to project Boston returning to its standing among the East's elite and rivaling Orlando and Cleveland for the conference championship. In that scenario, the addition of Wallace is pure gravy and the age concerns are softened by what appears to be superior depth.
But if Garnett comes back in any way diminished, the whole picture changes. Boston has some insurance in the form of Wallace and Davis, but that's to cover themselves against short-term absences, not to replace the production of one of the all-time great power forwards. Throw in the concerns about the other two primary scorers also getting up in years, and one would expect them to slide in the standings considerably.
Even if Garnett doesn't play a single game, Boston will be a playoff team and likely finish no worse than third given the lack of credible contenders in the East. But the Celtics didn't bring their three stars together and pay luxury tax through the nose so they could lose in the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, if Garnett's knee doesn't bounce back at full strength, that appears to be where they're headed.
Prediction: 54-28, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
