Danny's Blueprint

[The Eye of the Q is upon you!]

Danny Ainge wants to get the Celtics back on the Championship Track. His task was impossible from the beginning because he inherited a team with poor talent and three maximum contracts (Pierce, Walker, and Vin Baker). The previous ownership wanted to trim payroll to the soft cap and this one is unwilling to pay a luxery tax. So being stuck in the middle of a mediocre conference, Ainge decided he must part ways with Walker immediately. And that started the endless pattern of trading for skilled veterans with bad contracts and injury problems. His moves were designed to get more draft picks and maximize every one of them down to the very last pick in the second round. However his patterns have been most unorthodox. Ainge extended O'Brien only to have him quit when Williams and Battie were traded for Ricky Davis (a talented cancer) and Chris Mihm. Then Ainge extended Blount off his brilliant 1/2 season performance in a contract year. That blew up in his face. Then he traded Blount and RD along with Banks and Justin Reed for Olowakandi and Wally Sczerbiak. Wally spent more time on the IR than the basketball court. Meanwhile, Ainge pulled the Gaston bluelight special of trading Raef LaFrentz, Dan Dickau and #7 for Ratliffe (insurance money) and Sebastain Telfair. All I can say is that Grousebeck saved a lot of money losing the LaFrentz deal and the #7 rookie contract. THe Celtics got obviously weaker and the injury rash aggravated the situation where tanking for Oden and Durant became the logical strategy. May 22, 2007 is obviously a day of Celtic infamy and a disturbing repeat of 10 years ago. Between the Duncan lottery and the Oden lottery, the Celtics have had three winning seasons, four playoff appearences (2004 one was fraudelant) and three playoff series won (2002[2] and 2003[1]).

After May 27, 2007, Danny had two choices:

1) Trade the #5 pick for an established star veteran to keep Pierce happy.

2) Trade Paul Pierce and commit to a complete overhaul.

Danny chose #1 to keep his job probably. He did the best he could do because Marion, Garnett, and Jermaine O'Neal refused to play in Boston. That is the saddest statement of how things fell apart since the Big Three retired and Reggie Lewis died and the Celtics moved out of fabled Boston Garden. So now Danny is committing to building a team around Pierce and Ray Allen and has Al Jefferson as the third star. With good health and the improved play of Rondo and Perkins, our starting five is set. Our bench has Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Leon Powe and the two draft picks. Tony Allen could add a lot to the mix if he successfully recovers from his serious knee injury. Scalabrine is a future coach as far as I am concerned. Telfair may or may not be retained. We don't know if Ratliffe will ever play again.

Finances - The Celtics will be firmly between the salary cap and the luxery tax threshold but have major decisions on which young players to extend. Jefferson's extension is a top priority and he will be expensive. Adding a midlevel veteran PG and using Ratliffe and Telfair's plus sacrificing one or two youngans (Green, Powe, Gomes, Allan Ray and Tony Allen) to add a veteran big man appear to be on Ainge's shopping lists. Should we get a Brevin Knight and a Marcus Camby before training camp, I don't see why the Celtics can't become players in the watered down Eastern Conference in 2008 to 2010. They can keep reloading through the draft and put a quality product out on the basketball floor.

Window of opportunity - maximum potential - perennial 2nd or 3rd round playoff team - but never a serious threat to win the NBA Championship in the next three years.

What will it take? Danny will have to find a major FA player like Durant to get the Celtics back to the championship level or benefit from a blockbuster trade that almost happened.

[eja117]

I really think the only two possibilities are to trade for KG or hope AL J becomes one of the top 3 bigs in the league. Even if we got KG I don't think we'd win the finals. I think we'd get there but not win. Look at how long Dirk and company or the Suns have been together and they haven't done it. The Pistons had 5 stars and only won once.
But AL won't get it done either. AL might easily turn into an Elton Brand type so in 3 years we are basically rebuilding again around him. It might be a soft landing with guys like GG finally ready, but still.

I'd trade AL J for KG, but only under one circumstance. KG agrees to extend his deal for 2 years at reasonable money (he won't do it) or DA can get ownership to pay the luxury and they'd be fools not to. AND Minnesotta has to realize since they are getting the better end of the deal we ALSO get something else back like Corey Brewer in exchange for Scala or Telfair. This is the only way I trade a decade of AL J for KG.

If not I tell them "Fine. We'll just find out how good AL and Perk can become with nobody ever double teaming them"

Al and Perk work well together, especially when healthy. There's no particular reason the bigs can't be the 3rd and 5th best starters as long as they are very good and the rest of the team is too. The Bulls basically did that.

[FLCeltsFan]

Great post Q... I am posting it on LOY"s Place tomorrow morning.

[Roadrunner]

Q, great analysis (k+).

My thought's on Danny's strategy:

1. Keep Pierce, all other players from the past must go.
2. Use the draft to upgrade the current talent, then the next draft to replace the upgrade.
3. Parlaying one trade into another.

[ferbo]

I personally think the team is going to do well, unless there is another round of injuries. This will be AJs 4th year. I expect him to take another leap forward, based on the confidence that he is bound to have gained with his play last year. And, if healthy, I expect Perk to make a big leap. Would expect his rebounding to increase substantially, and that he will play solid defense.

Need another big. I expect Davis to have a role. Guy averaged a double-double in the SEC. If he is going up against second-team 5s, he will fare well. Harder for me to predict how he would do as a 4, which is what he was drafted as. I would wish that he learn to rebound in the Wes Unseld mold---position and strength. But wouldn't count too heavily on him until we see what he is going to do. So need another. I would like to think that Theo would be that guy, but it would be very unrealistic to hold out that hope until see it happen.

My wacko prediction: there won't be an enormouos difference in KGs stats and AJs stats.

[The Eye of the Q is upon you!]

ferbo said:

My wacko prediction: there won't be an enormouos difference in KGs stats and AJs stats.

That isn't so far off. KG will have more assists but the Celtics will go to a mix of uptempo and halfcourt offense. Jefferson and Perkins battery has been effective so Doc should start them together. Ratliffe, Powe, Gomes, and Glen Davis are the backups.

[Deleted]

I'd be surprised and disappointed if Danny trades Gerald Green or Tony Allen to get a veteran bigman. The value of those two guys will grow immensely in the next 12 months.

I think the Celtics should/will pick up a backcourt free agent for stability (Knight, Atkins). Give a motivated Telfair a chance to show his commitment to pass-first and better defense at backup PG, have patience with Theo if he shows the signs that he can go physically. He's the best answer at backup center and motivated by his contract year. And if he's not able to go physically, his contract is still a trade value in the first months of the season.

They should keep all their young core players and evaluate them for one more season. See what the rookies look like. We could be very pleasantly surprised. The value of the young guys will only go up as they mature and the guys entering their third or fourth years value will likely rise fastest. They all come with some desirable assets down to Powe whose energy and rebounding are commodities in demand. We're not winning a championship next season but we'll be much improved, fun, relevant to the media and seen as an up and coming team that is heading in the direction of ongoing competitiveness and contention for the crown. That's the way I think it should go and hope Danny has something like this as his plan.

[DERRENMATTS]

Here there, Steve. Good to hear your thoughts. I don't want Ainge to trade away Gerald or Tony either. I think both are going to be terrific players for us.

Brevin Knight as our veteran PG option is good, but I fear that Doc may end up using him too much, and neglect Rondo's development.

I do hope we go after Darko as our big man upgrade.

[mev17]

Welcome stevez! And I must say, a very well-thought-out analysis. Deserving of your first Koolaid Point.