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Post by FLCeltsFan on Apr 21, 2006 10:13:49 GMT -5
We lost the tie breaker with Minny. I am really getting to dislike Minny... They very obviously tanked with when found out that the Celts won... It was like they got the news that Boston won and told Madsen to chuck from the arc till they lost. Now they get the 6th pick and we get the 7th...
We lost the second round pick as well. If Golden State had won then we would have gotten their second round pick but they lost that one too.... our luck sure isn't very good.
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Post by BCHISTORIAN on Apr 21, 2006 11:58:51 GMT -5
yeah i hate tankers as well. still have a feeling that we get someone decent. we can have a sense of what danny will do when the ping pong balls have had their say.
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Post by esco33 on Apr 21, 2006 12:50:25 GMT -5
I have NBA League Pass so I saw the end of the Minny game too Fl. At that point I had not even thought about it, but I wondered why Madsen was shooting up all these bricks. It was terrible. I think like on 3 of the treys, he just hit backboard, no rim. I also had a feeling we would lose the "coin flip". We won the last tie we had with Milwaukee I think a few years ago. 50/50 chance, I figured we'd lose this one since we won the last. We STILL can get lucky and land in the top 3. If not Danny will still do something good with the pick. Don't even be surprised if he trades for another first rounder next year. (Oden? ) Does anyone have a list of the teams with the top 3 picks in the last say 5 years and what the lottery chances were that they would land in the top 3, etc. ??
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Apr 21, 2006 13:35:13 GMT -5
2005... Milwaukee had the 6th worst record with 6.3% chance at the top pick.
2004 Orlando had the worst record with 25% chance of winning the top pick.
2003 Cleveland had tied with Denver for the worst record with each having 22.5% chance of winning the lottery... Denver picked second.
2002 Houston had the 5th worst record and an 8.90% chance of getting the #1 pick.
2001 Washington had the 3rd worst record with 15.7% chance of winning the top pick.
2000 New Jersey had the 7th worst record and 4.40% chance of winning the lottery.
1999 Chicago had the 3rd worst record and 15.70% chance of winning the top pick.
1998 Clippers had the 3rd worst record and 15.7% chance of getting the top pick.
1997 San Antonio had the 3rd worst record and 21.6% chance of winning the lottery. (This was the Duncan lottery where ML tanked to try to get him and failed)
1996 Philly had the 2nd worst record and 33.73% chance of winning the top pick.
1995 Golden State had the 5th worst record and 9.4% chance of winning the lottery.
1994 Milwaukee had the 4th worst record and 16.3% chance of winning the top pick.
This is the start of the lottery as we know it. Previously there were 66 chances. The best record in the lottery had 1 chance in 66, second best 2 in 66 and so on up to 11 in 66 for the worst record.
1993 Orlando had the best record of the 11 teams and had 1 in 66 chances of winning it and did.
1992 Orlando had the 2nd worst record with 11 chances in 66
1991 Charlotte had the 5th worst record with 7 chances in 66 to win.
1990 NJ had the worst record and 11 chances in 66 to win.
Before this they had 9 envelopes for 9 teams and each team had 1 in 9 chances to get the top pick.
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Post by eja117 on Apr 21, 2006 13:57:37 GMT -5
so historically it is best to have the 3rd worst record (4 times). If you can't be them have either the 5th worst or worst (2 times each). Every other position 2,4,6,and 7 have won once, unless you would count Orlando as 11th winning once. We'll see who wins this time. I gues we're due for a 2,4,6, or 7. Statistically 5th has made out like a bandit and should not win again. It would be interesting to see who won the 2nd and 3rd picks. Also I think Denver picked 3rd in 2003, and got Melo after Darko. It seems the league is moving more and more towards the NFL system of worst first, but shouldn't get there cause of the huge difference between picking 1rst and 2nd or third. Do you want Lebron or anyone after him? Tim Duncan or Keith Van Horn or Chauncy Billups? That was the difference those years. Oden or whoever is after him?
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Post by eja117 on Apr 21, 2006 13:59:47 GMT -5
Does anyone know if we get the same # of ping pong balls as Minn or do they win that toe breaker too, cause that's stupid. i can't believe there used to just be 9 envelopes. That's ridiculous.
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Apr 21, 2006 14:08:07 GMT -5
Top 3 picks and chance of picking 1, 2 or 3 2005 Bucks 6.3 7.09 8.09 Hawks 25.0 21.46 17.74 Jazz 11.9 12.58 13.25
2004 Orlando 25 21.55 17.85 Charlotte got second pick as expansion team Chicago 20.0 18.91 17.22
2003 Cleveland 22.5 20.3 17.6 Detroit (from Atl) 2.9 3.37 4.02 Denver 22.5 20.3 17.6
2002 Houston 8.9 9.75 10.78 Chicago 22.5 20.3 17.63 Golden state 22.5 20.3 17.63
2001 Washington 15.7 15.8 15.7 Clippers 2.9 3.38 4.03 Atlanta 8.9 9.7 10.2
2000 NJ 4.4 5.06 5.93 Vancouver 12.0 12.7 13.4 Clippers 25.0 21.5 17.8
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Apr 21, 2006 14:10:36 GMT -5
Does anyone know if we get the same # of ping pong balls as Minn or do they win that toe breaker too, cause that's stupid. i can't believe there used to just be 9 envelopes. That's ridiculous. They get 50 ping pong balls and we get 49 If we had sole possession of 6th we would have gotten 63 and they would have gotten 39....
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Post by esco33 on Apr 21, 2006 15:25:45 GMT -5
2005... Milwaukee had the 6th worst record with 6.3% chance at the top pick. 2004 Orlando had the worst record with 25% chance of winning the top pick. 2003 Cleveland had tied with Denver for the worst record with each having 22.5% chance of winning the lottery... Denver picked second. 2002 Houston had the 5th worst record and an 8.90% chance of getting the #1 pick. 2001 Washington had the 3rd worst record with 15.7% chance of winning the top pick. 2000 New Jersey had the 7th worst record and 4.40% chance of winning the lottery. 1999 Chicago had the 3rd worst record and 15.70% chance of winning the top pick. 1998 Clippers had the 3rd worst record and 15.7% chance of getting the top pick. 1997 San Antonio had the 3rd worst record and 21.6% chance of winning the lottery. (This was the Duncan lottery where ML tanked to try to get him and failed) 1996 Philly had the 2nd worst record and 33.73% chance of winning the top pick. 1995 Golden State had the 5th worst record and 9.4% chance of winning the lottery. Thanks for the info Fl. So basically only twice in the last ten years has a team that was supposed to win the first pick actually won it. okay. That is good. Also, only once a team with the 7th worst record (us this year) won the lottery to get the first pick. 1 in 10 is not good chances. The chances of teams landing in at least the top 3 are WAY better. Does anyone have stats on that? I am still confident that somehow we can still land in the top 3. I have a feeling. If Danny is there at the Lottery (would be his first) I can see his crazy grin and all after we land in the top 3. 7 shamrocks for 7th worst record. Come'on ping pong balls. I agree with eja if Danny is not able to get the player he wants, we should trade the pick.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Apr 21, 2006 20:49:51 GMT -5
Rather disappointing that we couldn't get the 6th spot. We may end up missing out on the player we wanted by one spot.
Maybe its time we started thinking about Ainge moving down further in the 1st round.
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Post by esco33 on Apr 21, 2006 20:52:37 GMT -5
Rather disappointing that we couldn't get the 6th spot. We may end up missing out on the player we wanted by one spot. Maybe its time we started thinking about Ainge moving down further in the 1st round. I agree DM. If Ainge doesn't get the player he wants up high, he may decide to trade down lower for someone else or he may completely trade out of the draft all together and try to acquire future pick/s.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Apr 21, 2006 21:05:12 GMT -5
Hey, Jordan Farmar has decided to give the draft a try (though he's not signing an agent). I've always liked this kid's game, going back to when he played in the McD's All-Star game with Big Al (Rajon was in that game too). He's not quite as skilled as Kirk Hinrich, but he's in that mold.
He's got better passing vision than Delonte and has more moxie (swagger) as the lead PG. He's good about spacing and delivering passes at the right time. He showed last season, as a sophomore, that he can be a scoring threat from the perimeter.
Delonte has more intangibles than Farmar, but as far as distributing the ball and being a floor general, Farmar is a notch above.
But Farmar is not going to be a lottery pick, so if Ainge likes this kid as much as I do, he could move down in the order and pick him up in the late teens/early 20's.
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Post by Roadrunner on Apr 21, 2006 22:32:04 GMT -5
Trade down, take Williams.
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