Play it safe or take a chance?

[DERRENMATTS]

Let me give you a hypothetical scenario. To get Anthony Davis, we needed to trade both Tatum and Brown, as well as Marcus Smart (and whoever else we needed to make the salaries match) -- but we get to hang on to the 14th pick.

That means Kyrie stays, and now we build around him and AD, as well as Hayward and Horford. Now, with the 14th pick, do you play it safe and find a guy with a high floor (which means low bust potential) with a limited ceiling (not likely to make an All-Star team) who plays his role exceptionally well? Or do you swing for the fences on a guy who could be a bust, but has big time potential?

Say Cameron Johnson vs. Sekou Doumbouya. Both are 6'8"ish wings -- one is a 4-year collegiate role player with a sweet shooting stroke, while the other is an 18 year old sensation for France with lots of potential.

Do you factor that we can contend right now with Kyrie, AD, Hayward and Horford, so getting a role player who defends and hits three's is the way to go? Or regardless if we are contending right, it's always best to go with the highest possible ceiling player?

[eja117]

I don't think a rookie will make a huge difference so I'd swing. We saw this play out with Al Jefferson vs Gomes (FINE! Derren was right!) and we saw it very painfully with Giannis vs Kelly O. It only took 2 years or so for that to pan out.

[DERRENMATTS]

May 22, 2019 7:28:34 GMT -5 eja117 said:

I don't think a rookie will make a huge difference so I'd swing. We saw this play out with Al Jefferson vs Gomes (FINE! Derren was right!) and we saw it very painfully with Giannis vs Kelly O. It only took 2 years or so for that to pan out.

Kelly wasn't a good pick, IMO. Really nice guy who has some skills, but doesn't have the personality to excel against good NBA competition. I still wonder what Ainge saw in him.

But even if he plays it safe and goes with an upperclassmen with a high floor / low ceiling, I think there's value in picking a guy who you can plug and play right away, who will know his role and excel in it from day 1. We were basically missing that this year.

I'd take a swing on a raw high ceiling player who I felt wasn't a huge gamble. But I'd have to see his ceiling as an All-Star potential guy. I'd pass on Jalen McDaniel, even though people are excited with his height (6/9") and guard skills. But I don't see much separation with him and Jonathan Isaac -- possible nice rotation players, but not All-Star candidates.

Cameron Johnson vs. Sekou Doumbouya? Hmmmm…… this would be tough for me.

[eja117]

If I remember correctly we really wanted a big when KO was drafted, so maybe he saw a poor man's Dirk there.

I think those immediate plug and play guys happen way later in the draft now. Like last year if it were anyone it would have been Grayson Allen or something. Gomes was a late 2nd. So you can always get a guy like that later or trade for one. But I'm not sure how much they really help

[DERRENMATTS]

We wanted a big man who could shoot -- we drafted a big man could hit three's, but would take them only when his defender was 20 feet away from him (and he'd still hesitate).

Grayson had to learn how to play a differently style than what he was used to at Duke. But 3 and D guys, once they learn the defensive concepts and execute them, should be able to play right away. Like Malcolm Brogdon.

[Roadrunner]

Tough call. 3-4 year players have the potential to make an impact early, where 1-2 players have the potential to make a bigger impact later. One aspect I like about Danny selecting second round players is that he contracts them to a 4-year deal, usually with the last 2-years with team options. Granted, Danny usually signs these players @first round money, but still they are bargains.