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Post by DERRENMATTS on Dec 28, 2005 1:06:30 GMT -5
Veteran college player: Drew Gooden (4th pick in '02)
vs.
raw player with high upside/ceiling: Amare Stoudemire (9th pick in '02)
Veteran college player: Wally Sczerbiak (6th pick in '99)
vs.
raw player with high upside/ceiling: Corey Maggette (13th pick in '99)
Pat Garrity (19th in '98) vs. Al Harrington (25th in '98)
Joe Smith (1st pick in '95) vs. Kevin Garnett (5th pick in '95)
Kerry Kittles (8th pick in '96) vs. Kobe Bryant (13th in '96)
Now of course, this is all a biased outlook because I chose the best case scenarios for my case study. But my point is that taking a chance on the right high potential player can pay dividends. Speaking solely for myself, I would not have drafted a lot of these high potential/raw players: Deshaun Stevenson, Darius Miles, DeMarr Johnson, Jerome Moiso, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler (I'm not a fan of skinny big men who don't play strong), or Dujuan Wagner, and many more.
I admit that I haven't always made the right assesments--I thought (and still think) Eddie Curry was going to be a beast, and I thought Chris Bosh was going to be marginal (I still don't care much for his game--he's a skinny guy who doens't play strong).
But I've seen Gerald Green play before he was drafted (so this is before any bias could have seaped into me) and thought he was an exceptionally talented player who not only had a lot of potential, but also had the moxie/confidence and the showmanship to take him much further than Kedrick Brown. He wasn't scared of the limelight (he actually fed off of it in the dunk contest).
And this is why I feel good about Gerald, even though he's a bench warmer who can't even beat out Ryan Gomes or Justin Reed.
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Post by eja117 on Dec 28, 2005 12:45:56 GMT -5
If you look at a couple things about the names you picked and the results then you might realize you are proving my point. I'm not saying don't draft high schoolers. Draft players you know will be good and good fast. Amare, KG, and Kobe were all good and good fast. That proves my point there. Al harrington took 4 years and a trade to the worst team in the league to get good which proves my point that the team that took him got no benefit out of him so he wasn't worth taking over Garrity. Maggette was traded like twice and took some years to get good so he also didn't benefit the team that took him as opposed to Wally, who has had an ok career for the team that took him. It can also be suggested that Kobe and KG have hurt their teams pretty bad (one with a MONSTER untradeable contract who hasn't done anything in the playoffs, and the other who couldn't handle the spotlight and also wanted it so much that he shoved Shaq out of it.) Also most of your years aren't recent (02 is the most recent) and have several gaps in the years whereas I picked years more recent in succession leading to now. Let me put it a different way. Pick players you can largely predict will be very good without taking huge risks. You'd end up with these kinds of players
Guys you pretty much knew could be good 01 J Rich Shane battier Rich Jeff J Forte
02 Yao Jay Will Caron Butler Jared Jeffries D Gooden J Dixon
03 Lebron Carmelo DWade Kirk Heinrich M banks
04 Okafor B Gordon D Harris Loul Deng Iguodala k humphries J Nelson Tony Allen
05 Bogut Derron Williams Chris Paul Ray Felton Charlie V Ike D Sean may R mcCants Joey Graham Danny Granger Hakkim Warrik Julius Hodge Jarret Jack Wayne Simien
All those guys had done something over a long period of time in college or were players of the year or dominant or tourneys or took teams that had never been really good to national prominence. The debatable guys were guys like Sebastian Telfair who held his own in private workouts with Jameer or Bosh who was ACC freshman of the year, but I mostly held off on those guys
The next list of guys are riskier guys who either were young or didn't show as much in college or there was something not great about them (brendan Haywood fo example was big but slow and not so dominant in college) causing them to fall in the draft. They were the upside guys
01 ( This is the best year to prove my point. 04 is the one that goes against me) Kwame Tyson Chandler Gasol Curry Eddie griffin Diop Roddy White Joe Johnson Kedrick Brown Radmonovic (was 21 but I'm not sure if anyone had seen much of him) Steve Hunter Jason Collins Zach Randolph Brendan haywood Gerald Wallace j tinsley T Parker
(Notice the seniors picked late 9Haywood and Tinsley) still out performed a lot of upside guys
02 N Tskitishvili D Wagner Nene Chris Wilcox Amare Bostjan nachbar Q woods n krstic
03 Darko Bosh TJ Ford ( i wasn't sure to put his on this list or the other but a 5ft 8 guy is always a risk) M Pietrus Collinson (had shown a lot but also appeared to have stiff white man's disease) Zarko Cabraca Dahntay Jones Z Planinic (notice how foreigners whatever their age is a risk that sometiomes works and sometimes doesn't if nobody has seen them play, and sometimes it takes a while to get good) Travis Outlaw B Cook Ndudi Ebi Carlos Delfino Perk L barbosa Josh Howard (senior from ACC)
04 D Howard S Livingston Andris Biendris Robert Swift Sebastian Telfair Al Jefferson JR Smith Dorrell Wright Pavel Podkolzine Sergie Monia Delonte West Kevin martin Sasha Vujachic Beno Udrih David Harrison
05 marvin Williams martell Webster Andrew bynum Fran Vazquez Yaroslav Korolev Gerald Green Nate Robinson Franciso Garcia Luther Head Johan Petro Ian Mahinimi David Lee Jason maxiel Linas Klieza
By the way. Totally unrelated but 05 was a hell of a year for 2nd rounders
Almost the whole second half of the 1rst round these days are upside guys cause at that point why not. Especially if you are a good team like the Pistons or Spurs it makes sense to pick a foreigner nobody has seen and wait a few years. I didn't know what to do with guys like Mike Dunleavy, Troy Murphy,or Antoine Wright or Kirk Snyder. They had played in college and had shown something, but I didn't think they showed enough to be sure things but I didn't see them as upside risk guys either. Some of the guys I didn't even know where to start of much about them like Marcus Haislip or Chris Kaman. I mean what do you consider a juoir at Western Kentuicky? I guess maybe an upside guy.
At any rate the upside guys are far more 50/50ish with results all over the board whereas the guys who had excellent college careers and showed a lot and were well regarded by everyone almost always became pretty decent picks
Following that logic the safe picks in 06 are JJ Redick Adam Morrison Rudy Gay Tiago Splitter Shelden Williams Rudy Fernandez Paul Davis Taquean Dean Guillermo Diaz Josh Boone Taj Gray
The upsiders are Lemarcus Alridge Daniel Gibson Andrea Bargini Rajon Rondo Al Horford Marko Thomas marco Bellineli Shawnee Williams Richard Roby Paul Milsap Matt Haryasz Marcus Viniciuz Damir Makota
Seeing as how the high schoolers are banned it seems foreigners are likely to have a big year and then maybe next year freshmen will have a big year
Ok I think I finally ranted myself out. I'm gonna go give Derren an exhalt now
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