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Post by esco33 on Feb 4, 2007 11:53:23 GMT -5
Someone needs to do a study to see since the lottery has been in effect in the NBA who has REALLY had the best chance of getting the number 1 pick. (I do not have the time) Obviously, to be technical the team with the worst record has always had the best chance of getting the top pick every year. But I would like to know, which number slotted has actually gotten the number one pick the most times. Has it been 1, 2, 3 even? It seems as if in the past few years, none of the teams that were "supposed" to have gotten the pick actually landed the first pick in the draft, and we all know what happened in the 97 draft.
To me it seems as if the teams that are slated to get the number 2 or 3 picks are more likely to land the first pick and vice versa.
Can anyone help me out here? Fl, maybe?
Can you shed some light on this for me? ;D
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Post by The Eye of the Q is upon you! on Feb 6, 2007 8:05:00 GMT -5
Knowing our luck - Our odds are slim and none. David Stern sticks pins in the Celtics Leprecahn Doll everyday at his New York office. He has memos to the referees to give the Celtics the quick whistle. He delights at our misery and says the NBA has never been in better shape. We as Celtics fans can send a message to David Stern that we will not be pushed around by your corporate buttlicking methods.
The TD Banknorth Garden needs old school hecklers back in the seats to harass the referees 9 ways to Sunday and to put down opposing players. The Celtics coaches need to throw chairs on the floor in anger. Perkins, Jefferson, and Scalabrine need to deliver hard fouls. We need to play Leon Powe. We can't run, we can't play physical. We are too young. We need to go in a different direction. This home record is a complete disgrace and the losing must stop.
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Feb 6, 2007 10:41:48 GMT -5
The Lottery was instituted in 1985 and all 7 non playoff teams had an equal chance to win. Then in 1987 they only decided the 1st 3 by the lottery. In 1990 they went to the weighted lottery that we have today with all non playoff teams in the lottery and the worst teams having more chances than the better ones.
If you go back to 1987, here are the results. Record (# of first picks) Worst (3) 2 (3) 3 (6) 4 (2) 5 (3) 6 (2) 7 (1) 8 (0) 9 (0) 10 (0) 11 (1)
Now just going from the 1990 when the current weighted lottery was begun Record (#of 1st picks) 1 (2) 2 (3) 3 (4) 4 (2) 5 (2) 6 (2) 7 (1) 8 (0) 9 (0) 10 (0) 11 (1)
Orlando is by far the luckiest team with 3 first round picks since 1990 winning with the worst record, the 2nd worst record and the 11th worst record.
It seems that the best spot to be in is to have the 3rd worst record as the team with the 3rd worst record have won a whopping 6 times since 1985 and 4 times since the weighted lottery was instituted.
On the other hand, the team with the worst record has only won the lottery 3 times since 1985 and only twice in the weighted lottery.
Is this what you had in mind Esco??
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larbrd33
Welcome To Celtics Green!
Posts: 2
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Post by larbrd33 on Feb 7, 2007 12:36:06 GMT -5
Thanks for the research but I disagree with your conclusion. What you just discovered is that despite not having the best odds, the team with the 3rd worst record has won the lottery more than the team with the worst record. Now... I don't happen to live in Vegas, but... if the team with the best odds of winning the lottery has been shafted... doesn't the law of odds tell us that they are due to finally win it and that picking 3rd would be the worst possible position to be in?
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Post by FLCeltsFan on Feb 7, 2007 13:02:50 GMT -5
First of all, Welcome to the board larbrd33! Great to have you here and I am looking forward to your posts. I agree that the team with the worst record should be due for a break. Actually, the Celtics, never having won the lottery is due more than most no matter where they pick.
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Post by eja117 on Feb 7, 2007 13:08:27 GMT -5
oh my gosh larbrd33 I never thought of it that way
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larbrd33
Welcome To Celtics Green!
Posts: 2
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Post by larbrd33 on Feb 7, 2007 13:37:25 GMT -5
oh my gosh larbrd33 I never thought of it that way Right... in 15 of the last 17 years the team with the worst record has missed out on the top pick. I dunno bout you, but I'd say it's gotta happen eventually.
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Post by freshnthehouse on Feb 7, 2007 16:19:52 GMT -5
Exactly. THe past doesnt change who is going to pick #1. The worst team in the league obviously has the best chance to win it all.
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Post by esco33 on Feb 7, 2007 20:40:02 GMT -5
Thanks Fl. That's exactly what I was looking for.
Obviously, the team with the worst record theoretically should have the best shot at getting the number one pick year in and year out, but you would think with the law of chance then, that since the lottery was instituted the teams with the worst records would have won the lottery more than the other teams, and it hasn't happened it that way. That's why it is the law of chance. I guess some teams have gotten pretty lucky then.
Go figure.
I still say that if we do have the worst record, that we will NOT receive the first pick, and if by some chance we do receive the first pick, Oden will not come out.
I'm just being a pessimist. ;D
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Post by eja117 on Feb 7, 2007 21:25:24 GMT -5
Over like a 500 year period it would probably even out. But not yet
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Post by eja117 on Feb 7, 2007 21:57:20 GMT -5
espn.com has an article about our situation and they pointed out two things that are interesting.
One is that even if we had the worst record in the league we'd still have only a 46.5% chance of getting one of the top 2 picks. (If Oden doesn't come out that's nearly pointless). They also pointed out that the last 3 teams that had 15 or 15+ loss streaks ended up drafting Yao, Bron, and D Howard.
I'd point out since we got the 3rd pick in the year we should have certainly gotten Duncan, this year you'd think we'd get first or at least 2nd.
I wonder if Oden is considering staying in college cause he doesn't want to play for us. That would surprise me since he picked Ohio St. If that is the case he's a coward and I don't want him. I wonder why he picked Ohio St over Indiana or Duke or UCLA or Kansas or UNC. It sure wasn't academics.
Also if you type Oden into wikipedia it turns out Oden is a Japanese winter dish consisting of several ingredients such as boiled eggs, daikon radish, konnyaku and processed fish cakes stewed in a light, soy-flavoured dashi broth. Ingredients vary according to region and between each household. Karashi (Japanese mustard) is often used as a condiment.
Oden was originally what is now commonly called Misodengaku or simply Dengaku; konnyaku or tofu was boiled and one ate them with miso. Later, instead of using miso, ingredients were cooked in dashi and oden became popular.
Unlike most one pot dishes, ingredients can be added at any time. Oden is often sold from food carts, and most Japanese convenience stores have simmering oden pots in winter. Many different kinds of oden are sold, with single-ingredient varieties as cheap as 50 yen.
Regional variations In Nagoya, it may be called Kanto-ni (ŠÖ“ŒŽÏ) and soy sauce is used as a dipping sauce.
In Kansai area they are sometimes called Kanto-daki (ŠÖ“ŒŽÏ or ŠÖ“Œ†‚«) and tend to be stronger flavoured than the lighter Kanto version.
Oden in Shizuoka use a dark coloured broth flavoured with beef stock and dark soy sauce, and all ingredients are skewered. Dried and ground fish (sardine, mackerel, or skipjack tuna) and aonori powder (edible seaweed) are sprinkled on top before eating.
Udon restaurants in Kagawa Prefecture in Shikoku almost always offer oden as a side dish, to be eaten with sweet miso while waiting for the udon.
In Taiwan, people usually call it Oren (üK—Ö) because there is no 'd' sound in Taiwanese dialect.
List of Popular Ingredients Boiled eggs Chikuwabu - gluten tubes. Popular in Kanto, virtually unknown elsewhere. Sliced Daikon Gyusuji - beef tendons Ito konnyaku Konnyaku Carrot Shiitake Kabocha - Japanese squash Potato Tsukune - fish or meat balls Octopus Tebichi - pig trotters, only in Okinawa Tofu products: Ganmodoki - fried balls of tofu mixed with grated vegetables Atsuage - deep fried tofu Tofu - mainly in Kansai, usually seared Surimi products: Bakudan - boiled egg wrapped in surimi Chikuwa - thick tubes of surimi Gobomaki - boiled gobo (greater burdock root) wrapped in surimi Hanpen Ikamaki - squid wrapped in surimi Kamaboko Shinjoage - fried seafood paste
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Feb 8, 2007 22:39:14 GMT -5
Ummm... thanks Eja, for that enlightening bit on the japanese root vegetable dish. Maybe we should just hold out for Durant.
I'd like to think there's some conspiracy theory behind the ping pong balls, but I just can't think of how. You figure that all of the NBA team's representatives are there, watching Stern pull out the ping pong balls. He can't fake it, ore redo it if he pulls out the wrong one.
With Ainge's luck, I think this is the year we get lucky with either the 1st or 2nd pick. I'm just hoping that Oden and Durant come out this year.
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Post by Roadrunner on Feb 8, 2007 22:51:16 GMT -5
Nice job FL. I read today, that teams that have had long losing streaks, like the Celtics, garnered the top selection in 3 out 3 drafts.
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Post by DERRENMATTS on Feb 8, 2007 22:54:03 GMT -5
Nice job FL. I read today, that teams that have had long losing streaks, like the Celtics, garnered the top selection in 3 out 3 drafts. Quick, somebody explain to me what this means!
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Post by esco33 on Feb 8, 2007 23:17:45 GMT -5
I think he means DM, what eja said before. I saw it on ESPN as well. Teams that have had a losing streaks of 15 or more games in the past few years have received the number one pick that following draft.
Examples were:
Rockets with Yao Cavs with Bron Magic with Dwighty
Hopefully, next year it will say:
Celtics in 2007 with Oden. ;D
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