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Perk
Aug 14, 2006 21:59:30 GMT -5
Post by eja117 on Aug 14, 2006 21:59:30 GMT -5
I've been thinking about Perk and how good he can become and what stands in his way. This is basically his senior year in college. So he'll basically peak 4 years from now. At that point he will pretty much stop getting better. He'll be 26 and will be set for about 5 years of being as good as he'll ever be. So by then the following guys should be gone or greatly diminished. Shaq Ilgauskas Rasheed Wallace Brand will be no spring chicken Zo Ben Wallace Duncan (exact same age as Wallace) McDyess
Guys that will still be young Emeka D Howard Kaman Oden Durant TT Alridge Al J KG and Jermaine ON will only be like 32ish Amare Barganani Dirk Bosh
Can Al J or Perk be as good as those guys? I think they have a shot at being better than some or equal to some, but not all.
So then you have to consider our swing men. A lot of guys will be getting old by then but a lot of guys won't D Wade and Lebron are going to be around forever In addition there are many other youngins like Melo, Brandon Roye and Randy Foye. I think GG and maybe even TA can put up a fight against these guys but even if everthing we hope for comes true we can't possibly expect GG to be better than Lebron or D Wade.
That leaves us with pgs. Can Rondo or Sebastian do it? I think we actually have a shot in heck at this. Chris Paul will dominate this field for a while Tony Parker is still young Jameer Nelson is good
But Bibby, Nash, and Kidd are actually getting older.
I have to wonder what will happen if we have say the 8th best player at every position and the 5th best 6th man and ok bench.
Looking at who is at the bottom of the top (I'll use my fantasy rankings for this) here is what we'd have.
Ilgauskas Elton Brand Ak 47 Jason Richardson Mike Bibby
Those guys are ranked 7th at their positions. Look at the drop off to eight
Eddy Curry Chris Webber Peja Richard Jefferson Kirk Heinrich
That team would have been blown out of the water in the finals this year, maybe even by the Mavs.
The heat this year according to Lindys had the #1 center, #1 pg (he's a sg now), and the #6 pf.
The Mavs had the #3 PF, and #10 pg.
What would be far more realistic and hopeful for us would be like the equivalent of the #6 center (Emeka) #11 or 12 pf (Zach Randolph, Donyell Marshall) #9 sf (Rashard Lewis), # 13 0r 14 sg (Joe Johnson, Eddie Jones) and #10 pg (Jason Terry)
Then a Gomes and a Ricky Davis type coming off the bench. Would that team give us shot at the championshp? Absolutely not. Not even close.
Our big hope is that we end up with something along the lines of #3 center (Ben Wallace), #7 pf (Elton Brand) #6 sf or sg (Vince Carter or Rip Hamilton) and #7 pg Bibby.
We could just end this by bringing in KG. That is a ticket straight to the conference finals for years to come. Instead we probably missed our shot and McHale will hope Foye is the next Wade, and if he is he might just win a championship.
we're in the position of maybe the Clippers now. Nice team. Will never win anthing. Or even worse, amybe Paul's Hornets. One great guard that will keep us from ever getting anything good in the draft so we'll be mediocre for a long time. Too good to geta top pick, too bad to win anything.
If the team doesn't take serious strides this year it's time for someone in the front office to grow a sack and get this done already.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 1:21:54 GMT -5
Post by mev17 on Aug 15, 2006 1:21:54 GMT -5
Much will depend on team chemistry. Arguably, other than Wade and Shaq, Dallas had the advantage in the other three positions and the bench. But Miami played better team defense and got better scoring opportunities in clutch moments. If our young players can not only develop individually but also collectively as a unit, we could have a shot. Plus no telling who Melo and LeBron's teammates will be five years from now.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 3:15:47 GMT -5
Post by DERRENMATTS on Aug 15, 2006 3:15:47 GMT -5
I think you make a good point, Mev. Miami did better in clutch situations. They were able to get better looks at the basket and convert more plays when they needed buckets, not necessarily buzzer beaters at the end of regulation periods, but just scoring in tight situations and not losing key possessions.
This is where we need to come up better. We lose too many possessions by throwing the ball away (TO's) and by not executing our offense as well as we need to be.
Also, I mentioned this in another thread, but we need to get more defensive stops. We give up too many points because we aren't able to play solid enough defense to force teams into tougher shots. This needs to change this season also.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 8:22:25 GMT -5
Post by eja117 on Aug 15, 2006 8:22:25 GMT -5
Right and the reason we couldn't get good shot or make defensive stops is cause other teams had better players.
Righ Mev. Dallas maybe had better players at the other 3 positions and bench and still lost, which all the more shows how good it is to be dominant at those positions
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 8:53:52 GMT -5
Post by FLCeltsFan on Aug 15, 2006 8:53:52 GMT -5
Great post Eja... good analysis. I have posted it on Loy's Place....
I honestly believe that Perk is going to be a top 3 center. He has a work ethic that is second to none in the league. He practices hard (as evidenced by the fact that he dislocated his shoulder in practice) and he plays hard. He has advanced an amazing amount so far without much playing time. The key to how quickly he develops further will be how much playing time he gets this year. If Doc goes small like he has been saying he will and keeps Perk on the bench, I believe that will be a big mistake. We need the defense and rebounding in the middle to start the fast break and Perk is an excellent outlet passer. Al, if healthy, has a chance to develop into a top player as well. I expect both to make significant strides this year if given the playing time.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 14:12:15 GMT -5
Post by eja117 on Aug 15, 2006 14:12:15 GMT -5
Al right. I'm published. Yeah. I officially don't suck. I am immortal.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 15:55:45 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Aug 15, 2006 15:55:45 GMT -5
KG is actually 3 years older than Jermaine O'Neal. He'll be in the twilight of his career when Perkins starts making an impact. Only thing I worried about Perkins is his injuries. I can see Perk becoming a strong rebounder/defender and possibly make an all-star appearance but, he needs to stay healthy enough to do this.
Ditto with Jefferson. But, I think Ainge has a tough decision in the next two years between Perk and Jefferson. They're both simlar players while one might play a different style I still consider them both to be undersize centers. If Jefferson makes huge strides this year you might see Perk being moved along with theo to get an impact PF to make a run for the playoffs.
Far as PG goes, Rondo or Bassy needs to show something this season or we'll be seeing West majority of the time. And Ainge will look like an idiot for talking up about needing a pure pg.
I can see that happening if we're able to stay around .500 record by the all-star break and be able to keep Pierce while making a trade. It just doesn't make sense trading for KG if aren't winning ball games before getting him. He's more of a guy to take us over the top. And he's looking to win not waiting for us to rebuild.
Hopefully Ainge made the trade with Minnesota so McHale can give us a hand down the road.
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Perk
Aug 15, 2006 19:06:02 GMT -5
Post by eja117 on Aug 15, 2006 19:06:02 GMT -5
KG was drafted out of high school in 1995 and Jermaine was drafted out of high school one year later with Kobe in 1996. PP was drafted as a junior in 1998 so KG is about the exact same age as PP give or take a year and should be a year younger than Jermaine unless someone stayed back or something. Fresh pointed out that PP is 28, so he and KG have about 5-6 years. Perk should hit his stride in about 3 years. So there are two or three years of overlap and you could say the same about AL J. Since Perk was drafted a year before AL J his decision comes first. the team will definitely make an offer, but it should be less than Nene's, which is going to make things interesting. Same with Al. KG is a building block who would probably kill to play with a star like PP and young talented players that would defer to them. An over the top player is someone like Jason Williams or Toine with the Heat. A building block championship delivering trade is someone like Shaq with the Heat. KG is more of the second kind. The only problem is KG and PP vs Shaq and Wade won't get it done untill Shaq retires or slows down. Considering Shaq was drafted as a Jr. in 1992, that means he is about 35 years old. He is good for another 3-4 years is he wants it. After that we would be primed to win the championship with guys like a 31-32ish PP and KG, with approx 25 year old Perks, GGs, Rondos, Gomes, Delontes etc. That would be pretty much perfect. And it is the only way, other than some sort of miracle involving Oden. In that case it will still take about 2-3 years even if he were the next awesome big man. The biggest impact a rookie high school big man ever had was Amare who was ROY and everything good that happened to the Suns in the last few years is twice as attributable to Nash as him. In fact this year Marion, Nash, and Boris Diaw proved Amare had virtually nothing at all to do with it. If we made this trade the only thing on Earth standing between us and several trips to the finals would be Lebron, but only if Drew Gooden (resigned for 3 whole years) or whoever they sign (there will be players that want to play with him) are really good, or if Dwight Howard does really well with someone (Dwight Howard and whoever don't look as good as PP and KG) or if Charlotte with Emeka, Sean may, and Morrison are awesome (we look better on paper there too) or if Barnani and Bosh are awesome (we look better there too) or if Oden goes to someone in the east and is the next Duncan. So if we want to compete with that (oh yeah there;s also Ben Wallace and Heinrich and Gordon and whatnot in Chicago), let alone beat it we need this trade. You'd be amazed how quickly our players would develop and how good they'd look next to KG.
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Perk
Aug 16, 2006 15:46:25 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Aug 16, 2006 15:46:25 GMT -5
Anyone can develope faster if you have a guy like KG and Pierce being double team all game long. I like to KG but for a reasonable price. I don't think trading away three starters for KG is worth it. And I expect Minny to ask for top of the line trade offers. In other words, either we trade Pierce + prospects for KG or don't expect any movement from Minny side.
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Perk
Aug 16, 2006 19:24:37 GMT -5
Post by eja117 on Aug 16, 2006 19:24:37 GMT -5
JHVOs, do you think offerring Minny draft picks, cash, and every player on our roster other than PP, Rondo, GG, Perk, and Gomes couldn't get it done, cause I think there is the possibility it could. If not then I guess we should try to get a different future HOFer.
Three starters for KG not worth it? Who are they? Al J? Delonte? Wally? Telfair? Ratliff? A first rounder? I guess you could argue those are three starters. Are those guys worth a championship? I think i could deal with letting them go for a championship.
You are right that anyone could look good next to KG and PP and that is exactly the point. In that case trading three starters for him wouldn't matter cause anyone could look good next to them and would really good standing next to them and a championship trophy. And while anyone could look good standing next to KG and PP apparently not anyone can look good next to KG, Wally, Latrell, and Cassell, so we'd have to hope our players could be collectively better than that and I think they could.
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Perk
Aug 17, 2006 3:44:34 GMT -5
Post by freshnthehouse on Aug 17, 2006 3:44:34 GMT -5
I'd say we'd have to start w/ Wally, Ratliff, Green, Jeff. and Telfair, plus some picks, and be willing to take on one of their awful contracts.
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Perk
Aug 17, 2006 13:45:26 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2006 13:45:26 GMT -5
Here is what Minny would want: Perk, Pierce, and West
Would you trade those 3 players for KG? Not to mention their will be plenty of teams out there willing to give up All-star wingman to get him. Either we give up Pierce or no KG in boston.
I can't see McHale giving up on KG and not get any player in return who aren't on an all-star level.
Fresh, you really think Minny wants Wally back? They already are paying Blount for the next 4 years why would they tie up their capspace even more? And NO I can't see Boston taking Mark Blount back even if KG comes here.
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Perk
Aug 17, 2006 14:45:28 GMT -5
Post by freshnthehouse on Aug 17, 2006 14:45:28 GMT -5
Fresh, you really think Minny wants Wally back? They already are paying Blount for the next 4 years why would they tie up their capspace even more? And NO I can't see Boston taking Mark Blount back even if KG comes here. I threw in Wally for salary purposes. What we'd prolly have to do is include another team.
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Perk
Aug 17, 2006 14:47:54 GMT -5
Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2006 14:47:54 GMT -5
Fresh, you really think Minny wants Wally back? They already are paying Blount for the next 4 years why would they tie up their capspace even more? And NO I can't see Boston taking Mark Blount back even if KG comes here. I threw in Wally for salary purposes. What we'd prolly have to do is include another team. More than likely but, what team in their right mind would help the Celtics get a top 3 player in the NBA?
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Perk
Aug 17, 2006 14:57:22 GMT -5
Post by freshnthehouse on Aug 17, 2006 14:57:22 GMT -5
I threw in Wally for salary purposes. What we'd prolly have to do is include another team. More than likely but, what team in their right mind would help the Celtics get a top 3 player in the NBA? If it makes them better, teams will pull the trigger regardless of the ramifications. Kinda like the Det/Atl/Bos trade that sent Rasheed to the Pistons.
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