Post by FLCeltsFan on Sept 22, 2015 8:14:52 GMT -5
SQ31 Trifecta? I Hope All Three Get Extended
by Lee Lauderdale (from CG Blog)
Danny certainly should not extend the three available's (Zeller, Sullinger, Jones) just because he can, nor should he do it now; but I do hope it comes to pass and here's why/how. I want Zeller to sign a home-team discount deal because he realizes that Boston was the spark that boosted his career from petering-out to rotation-player. I want both Jones and Sullinger to play (and practice!) their way into the long-term plans during October. I want these latter two contract extensions to be “shaping” contracts with a sizable portion of their value to be made up of bonus clauses. I want this set of extensions (highly unlikely as of this writing) to be win-win-win contracts where the players, Danny's building project, and the on-court play all are served well.
In Zeller I see a player who has made a good case for extension. He is a productive player at a position of need and scarcity. He may well be best suited as a backup but if his play and production improves as much this year as last, we will be be talking in very favorable terms about a serviceable starting center. He is not now a floor stretcher, but then again, it is not too difficult to see his top of the free throw circle jumper growing out to the corner three. He is still maturing and as he gains more strength he should be even more effective around the basket and corralling rebounds. His flip shots are highly efficient and almost un-blockable, even by the few true centers in today's game. He is excellent at both the pick-and-pop with his mid-range jumper, and the pick-and-roll as he dives to the basket. He is a willing, aware, and deft passer; runs like a gazelle; and uses his awareness and BBIQ to maintain space and grease ball movement. While he is not an above-the-rim shot blocker, he does challenge drivers well and plays excellent position defense. As his strength improves he will be harder and harder to move out of his established position (currently a shortcoming).
As for his contract value, any serviceable big man who is still improving will command near 8-figure money. That said, Zeller's career received such a boost when he escaped Cleveland and joined Brad Stevens merry band, that it actually makes sense (even financially) for Tyler to “invest” in continuing that relationship. If he continues to play productively and improve, he will likely set himself up for an even larger contract after this next one. Signing a $9M or $10M per year contract for four or five years now would insure his financial future, guard against catastrophic injury, and keep him in an environment where he has already thrived. Danny would have locked in his serviceable center at reasonable (especially in the new CBA flush with monetary excess) rate, providing stability and with an eminently movable contract if a deal seems advisable in the future.
The case for Jared Sullinger is much trickier, on several levels. On the surface, there is no way that Sully should be extended. Sullinger has to prove not only that he can achieve and maintain professional-level NBA shape and conditioning; and almost by definition one month of training camp won't outweigh three years of a chubby Jared (kind of the antithesis of the Subway Jared ;>) gaining even more weight during the season and huffing and puffing up and down the court (often well behind his teammates) when he is not missing nearly a third of the games due to injuries that, if not caused by excessive weight, were probably made more likely by that built in anchor. What Sullinger has to achieve is a substantial change in lifestyle; not only better nutritional habits but also a dedication to conditioning and professional attitude, all of which have been noticeably absent thus far.
I've seen accounts recently that Jared's agent, Faulk, is angling for a maximum contract. I think it is safe to say that this will not happen, and certainly not by October 31. On the other hand I do think there is room for compromise. If Sullinger hits camp with a toned body and bountiful wind, plays with a spring in his step on both ends and getting from one to the other, and demonstrates a professional leadership demeanor along with improvement in skills previously deficit (movement, effort, efficient shooting with range), then Danny may/should offer a negotiation. Something like a low eight figure contract with a team option in the third year (perhaps a player option in the fourth or fifth) and a large portion of the total value based on bonuses dependent upon conditioning goals throughout the season (weekly weigh-in's, monthly timed endurance runs) and leadership qualities (much more difficult to quantify but I think it is essential that he become a positive example, rather than the current negative one, for a youthful team, in which Jared has become a relatively senior member). If Sullinger is not willing to acknowledge that he has fallen short of his duties to the Celtics thus far, and be eager to turn that around at the dinner table, in the locker room, and on the court, (and be willing to put his money where his mouth is) then I suspect all will be better served by either moving Sully before or during the season, or going into restricted free agency next summer.
The case for Perry Jones III is even more ethereal. A superstar on paper, breif glimpses of stardom on the court, and an enigma cast aside by his drafting team in actuality; Jones has far and away the biggest boom/bust potential (and delta) of any Celtic under contract for this season. At the moment he not only is undeserving of an extension, he isn't even deserving of a roster slot—but all that is based on history. Brad Stevens, as much as any coach today, sets aside historical performance and places players in a position to succeed. Will Perry be one of them? Who knows, but the possibilities are exciting. At the very least Jones will have to move the needle in order to stay on the roster October 26th. If he is, it will mean some other current Celtic will be an ex-Celtic. But my imagination soars far beyond just carving out an end-of-the-bench accomplishment. No I want to see this long, agile, athletic “discard” seize the day and blossom into a starting three. We've seen the glimpses and (Jeff Green flashbacks aside) now I want to see the consistency. Jones could be a switching nightmare for opponents trying to screen their way into opportunities, only to find that Perry slides seamlessly onto all sizes and mobilities, providing exactly zero advantage to the offense. He's shown the ability to score inside, outside, and on the move; and isn't that almost the definition of the pace-and-space, ball-and-player-movement offense that is the ultimate target of Steven's coached teams? PJ3 is probably the answer for most likely to be waived to get roster to 15, but that is not my dream. No I want him to compete for a starting position, not just a place on the roster. I want him to emerge as a budding star. I want Danny eager to extend him, and Perry Jones eager to be extended on this team that gave him another (his last?) chance. This time the extension bonuses should center on minutes earned and the option years similar to Sullinger's.
So those are the developments that I hope come to pass by the end of October. While this trifecta is a real long shot, I would argue that this triple win holds the best opportunity for a Celtics jump into relevance in the conference race. Considering the stars-likely-to-be-available, trade chips held, and difficulty of pulling off the fireworks trade, I consider even this unlikely triple crown a better bet than Danny succeeding at a magical move in the current trade environment. I suppose that this is my home run for internal development.
For those who noticed my absence the past three weeks, sorry, and thanks for paying attention.
by Lee Lauderdale (from CG Blog)
Danny certainly should not extend the three available's (Zeller, Sullinger, Jones) just because he can, nor should he do it now; but I do hope it comes to pass and here's why/how. I want Zeller to sign a home-team discount deal because he realizes that Boston was the spark that boosted his career from petering-out to rotation-player. I want both Jones and Sullinger to play (and practice!) their way into the long-term plans during October. I want these latter two contract extensions to be “shaping” contracts with a sizable portion of their value to be made up of bonus clauses. I want this set of extensions (highly unlikely as of this writing) to be win-win-win contracts where the players, Danny's building project, and the on-court play all are served well.
In Zeller I see a player who has made a good case for extension. He is a productive player at a position of need and scarcity. He may well be best suited as a backup but if his play and production improves as much this year as last, we will be be talking in very favorable terms about a serviceable starting center. He is not now a floor stretcher, but then again, it is not too difficult to see his top of the free throw circle jumper growing out to the corner three. He is still maturing and as he gains more strength he should be even more effective around the basket and corralling rebounds. His flip shots are highly efficient and almost un-blockable, even by the few true centers in today's game. He is excellent at both the pick-and-pop with his mid-range jumper, and the pick-and-roll as he dives to the basket. He is a willing, aware, and deft passer; runs like a gazelle; and uses his awareness and BBIQ to maintain space and grease ball movement. While he is not an above-the-rim shot blocker, he does challenge drivers well and plays excellent position defense. As his strength improves he will be harder and harder to move out of his established position (currently a shortcoming).
As for his contract value, any serviceable big man who is still improving will command near 8-figure money. That said, Zeller's career received such a boost when he escaped Cleveland and joined Brad Stevens merry band, that it actually makes sense (even financially) for Tyler to “invest” in continuing that relationship. If he continues to play productively and improve, he will likely set himself up for an even larger contract after this next one. Signing a $9M or $10M per year contract for four or five years now would insure his financial future, guard against catastrophic injury, and keep him in an environment where he has already thrived. Danny would have locked in his serviceable center at reasonable (especially in the new CBA flush with monetary excess) rate, providing stability and with an eminently movable contract if a deal seems advisable in the future.
The case for Jared Sullinger is much trickier, on several levels. On the surface, there is no way that Sully should be extended. Sullinger has to prove not only that he can achieve and maintain professional-level NBA shape and conditioning; and almost by definition one month of training camp won't outweigh three years of a chubby Jared (kind of the antithesis of the Subway Jared ;>) gaining even more weight during the season and huffing and puffing up and down the court (often well behind his teammates) when he is not missing nearly a third of the games due to injuries that, if not caused by excessive weight, were probably made more likely by that built in anchor. What Sullinger has to achieve is a substantial change in lifestyle; not only better nutritional habits but also a dedication to conditioning and professional attitude, all of which have been noticeably absent thus far.
I've seen accounts recently that Jared's agent, Faulk, is angling for a maximum contract. I think it is safe to say that this will not happen, and certainly not by October 31. On the other hand I do think there is room for compromise. If Sullinger hits camp with a toned body and bountiful wind, plays with a spring in his step on both ends and getting from one to the other, and demonstrates a professional leadership demeanor along with improvement in skills previously deficit (movement, effort, efficient shooting with range), then Danny may/should offer a negotiation. Something like a low eight figure contract with a team option in the third year (perhaps a player option in the fourth or fifth) and a large portion of the total value based on bonuses dependent upon conditioning goals throughout the season (weekly weigh-in's, monthly timed endurance runs) and leadership qualities (much more difficult to quantify but I think it is essential that he become a positive example, rather than the current negative one, for a youthful team, in which Jared has become a relatively senior member). If Sullinger is not willing to acknowledge that he has fallen short of his duties to the Celtics thus far, and be eager to turn that around at the dinner table, in the locker room, and on the court, (and be willing to put his money where his mouth is) then I suspect all will be better served by either moving Sully before or during the season, or going into restricted free agency next summer.
The case for Perry Jones III is even more ethereal. A superstar on paper, breif glimpses of stardom on the court, and an enigma cast aside by his drafting team in actuality; Jones has far and away the biggest boom/bust potential (and delta) of any Celtic under contract for this season. At the moment he not only is undeserving of an extension, he isn't even deserving of a roster slot—but all that is based on history. Brad Stevens, as much as any coach today, sets aside historical performance and places players in a position to succeed. Will Perry be one of them? Who knows, but the possibilities are exciting. At the very least Jones will have to move the needle in order to stay on the roster October 26th. If he is, it will mean some other current Celtic will be an ex-Celtic. But my imagination soars far beyond just carving out an end-of-the-bench accomplishment. No I want to see this long, agile, athletic “discard” seize the day and blossom into a starting three. We've seen the glimpses and (Jeff Green flashbacks aside) now I want to see the consistency. Jones could be a switching nightmare for opponents trying to screen their way into opportunities, only to find that Perry slides seamlessly onto all sizes and mobilities, providing exactly zero advantage to the offense. He's shown the ability to score inside, outside, and on the move; and isn't that almost the definition of the pace-and-space, ball-and-player-movement offense that is the ultimate target of Steven's coached teams? PJ3 is probably the answer for most likely to be waived to get roster to 15, but that is not my dream. No I want him to compete for a starting position, not just a place on the roster. I want him to emerge as a budding star. I want Danny eager to extend him, and Perry Jones eager to be extended on this team that gave him another (his last?) chance. This time the extension bonuses should center on minutes earned and the option years similar to Sullinger's.
So those are the developments that I hope come to pass by the end of October. While this trifecta is a real long shot, I would argue that this triple win holds the best opportunity for a Celtics jump into relevance in the conference race. Considering the stars-likely-to-be-available, trade chips held, and difficulty of pulling off the fireworks trade, I consider even this unlikely triple crown a better bet than Danny succeeding at a magical move in the current trade environment. I suppose that this is my home run for internal development.
For those who noticed my absence the past three weeks, sorry, and thanks for paying attention.